College Football - BCS Bowls

[Andy]

I for one welcome Illinois' position as this year's Notre Dame of BCS participants, a team that nobody thinks measures up to the rest, and is universally considered in only because of politics and tradition.

 

First Rose Bowl in 24 years, though!

And I for one think Illinois will follow what Notre Dame did the last two years when their slot was in question and get handled by their opponent. The only difference is that unlike 05 and 06, that team won't have the double whammy of also facing the best team not in the title game (since Georgia probably has that distinction this season).

[Andy]

double post Edited December 3, 2007 by Andy

[snoodmonger]

Lee Corso on Missouri not getting a BCS game.

 

"I think it sucks!"

 

I don't. I kinda like it.

[vance_the_cubs_fan]

Geaux Tigers!

[Mephistopheles]

I am putting all of the Meph Bowl Picks in here:

Note all probabilities are the chances of the SECOND team listed to win the game.

 

Biggest Mismatches

1. 90.8% Papa Johns Bowl: Southern Miss vs. Cincinnati

2. 87.9% Capital One Bowl: Michigan vs. #9 Florida

3. 85.6% Fiesta Bowl: #11 West Virginia vs. #3 Oklahoma

4. 84.0% Poinsettia Bowl: Navy vs. Utah

5. 83.7% Hawaii Bowl: East Carolina vs. #24 Boise State

 

Best Matchups

1. 51.7% Champ Sports Bowl: Michigan State vs. #14 Boston College

2. 52.6% Peach Bowl: #22 Auburn vs. #15 Clemson

3. 56.3% Las Vegas Bowl: UCLA vs. BYU

4. 57.2% Meineke Car Care Bowl: Wake Forest vs. Connecticut

5. 58.0% Outback Bowl: #18 Wisconsin vs. #14 Tennessee

 

Picks:

12/20 Poinsettia Bowl Utah 34 Navy 17 16.0%

12/21 New Orleans Bowl FAU 27 Memphis 21 35.6%

12/22 Papa Johns Bowl Southern Miss 14 Cincinnati 38 90.8%

12/22 New Mexico Bowl Nevada 24 New Mexico 30 72.3%

12/22 Las Vegas Bowl UCLA 14 BYU 21 56.3%

12/23 Hawaii Bowl #24 Boise State 41 East Carolina 24 16.3%

12/26 Motor City Bowl Purdue 31 Central Michigan 17 21.5%

12/27 Holiday Bowl #12 Arizona State 28 #17 Texas 24 38.1%

12/28 Champ Sports Bowl #14 Boston College 27 Michigan State 28 51.7%

12/28 Emerald Bowl Oregon 24 Maryland 21 29.4%

12/28 Texas Bowl TCU 35 Houston 24 23.0%

12/29 Liberty Bowl Mississippi State 17 Central Florida 24 63.0%

12/29 Meineke Car Care Bowl Connecticut 27 Wake Forest 24 42.8%

12/29 Alamo Bowl Penn State 21 Texas A&M 14 36.4%

12/30 Independence Bowl Alabama 24 Colorado 17 39.1%

12/31 Music City Bowl Florida State 24 Kentucky 31 69.7%

12/31 Sun Bowl Oregon State 14 #23 South Florida 24 64.6%

12/31 Armed Forces Bowl Air Force 28 California 31 59.8%

12/31 Humanitarian Bowl Fresno State 31 Georgia Tech 34 59.3%

12/31 Peach Bowl #15 Clemson 20 #22 Auburn 21 47.4%

12/31 Insight Bowl Oklahoma State 28 Indiana 20 34.9%

1/1 Capital One Bowl Michigan 24 #9 Florida 56 87.9%

1/1 Rose Bowl #13 Illinois 17 #6 USC 35 77.1%

1/1 Gator Bowl #21 Virginia 21 Texas Tech 35 73.2%

1/1 Outback Bowl #18 Wisconsin 24 #16 Tennessee 27 58.0%

1/1 Cotton Bowl #7 Missouri 34 #25 Arkansas 31 38.5%

1/1 Sugar Bowl #4 Georgia 34 #10 Hawaii 31 35.2%

1/2 Fiesta Bowl #11 West Virginia 24 #3 Oklahoma 41 85.6%

1/3 Orange Bowl #8 Kansas 10 #5 Virginia Tech 31 36.6%

1/5 International Bowl Ball State 21 Rutgers 27 68.6%

1/6 GMAC Bowl Tulsa 35 Bowling Green 38 59.6%

1/8 National Championship Game #1 Ohio State 21 #2 LSU 34 40.7%

 

Breakdown by Conference:

7-2 Southeastern Conference

4-1 Big East Conference

4-1 Mountain West Conference

4-2 Pac-10 Conference

4-4 Big 12 Conference

3-5 Big Ten Conference

2-6 Atlantic Coast Conference

1-0 Sun Belt Conference

1-2 Mid-American Conference

1-3 Western Athletic Conference

1-5 Conference USA

0-1 Independents

 

Discuss.

[Andy]

Interestingly, whoever wins will be the first national champion with a first-year starter at quarterback since Craig Krenzel and Ohio State in 2002.

[Guest]

I for one welcome Illinois' position as this year's Notre Dame of BCS participants, a team that nobody thinks measures up to the rest, and is universally considered in only because of politics and tradition.

 

First Rose Bowl in 24 years, though!

And I for one think Illinois will follow what Notre Dame did the last two years when their slot was in question and get handled by their opponent. The only difference is that unlike 05 and 06, that team won't have the double whammy of also facing the best team not in the title game (since Georgia probably has that distinction this season).

 

You could make a pretty good case for USC, though, as the best team not in the title game. But yeah, unlike the previous two years there isn't a clear-cut team that stands out since Georgia, OU and USC could all have good arguments.

[Mephistopheles]

I for one welcome Illinois' position as this year's Notre Dame of BCS participants, a team that nobody thinks measures up to the rest, and is universally considered in only because of politics and tradition.

 

First Rose Bowl in 24 years, though!

And I for one think Illinois will follow what Notre Dame did the last two years when their slot was in question and get handled by their opponent. The only difference is that unlike 05 and 06, that team won't have the double whammy of also facing the best team not in the title game (since Georgia probably has that distinction this season).

 

You could make a pretty good case for USC, though, as the best team not in the title game. But yeah, unlike the previous two years there isn't a clear-cut team that stands out since Georgia, OU and USC could all have good arguments.

 

cliche by now but....and Florida!!!

[Guest]

WVU last year had a good argument.

 

I'm not complaining that ND got in but WVU had just as good of a case as ND did.

 

They had a decent argument but were ranked 12th in the BCS compared to ND's 10th and there was plenty of separation between them. ND was also 2 spots higher in the human polls.

 

2 spots isn't a huge margin.

 

West Virginia's 2 losses were by 10 points at 11-1 Louisville and by 5 points at home to 8-4 South Florida. Notre Dame lost by 26 at home to 11-1 Michigan and by 20 points at 10-2 USC. WVU's losses are better than ND's and their wins are probably just as good.

 

West Virginia finished 10th in the Sagarin rankings while Notre Dame was 21st though that was after the bowls so they were probably pretty close in that going into the bowls.

 

Like I said, the two teams were pretty darn close and you could make a good argument for both teams and probably a slightly better argument for WVU.

[Flames24Rulz]

My useless picks:

 

USC by 7

Hawaii by 6

West Virginia by 3

Va Tech by 13

LSU by 17

[cbbryan]

1/1 Rose Bowl #13 Illinois 17 #6 USC 35 77.1%

 

No way! I'll give you that USC is more talented overall. Illinois has a quality running game with Mendenhall and a mobile QB in Juice that will help keep USC's defense off balance.

 

I don't know if Illinois has enough to get the job done, but I don't think they'll get stomped either.

 

My call USC 27 Illinois 24

 

1/1 Sugar Bowl #4 Georgia 34 #10 Hawaii 31 35.2%

 

Hanging with Washington and hanging with Georgia are two totally seperate things. Even June Jones says they're "over their heads" in this game. It may be close early, but here's the blowout your looking for!

 

Georgia 42 Hawai'i 27

 

1/8 National Championship Game #1 Ohio State 21 #2 LSU 34 40.7%

 

I actually like this match-up. I've watched LSU a couple times this year and have been impressed.

 

After last years embarrasment to Florida, OSU will come prepared. I think this game stays within 7 points and I can see either team winning.

[dougdescenzo]

WVU last year had a good argument.

 

I'm not complaining that ND got in but WVU had just as good of a case as ND did.

 

They had a decent argument but were ranked 12th in the BCS compared to ND's 10th and there was plenty of separation between them. ND was also 2 spots higher in the human polls.

 

2 spots isn't a huge margin.

 

West Virginia's 2 losses were by 10 points at 11-1 Louisville and by 5 points at home to 8-4 South Florida. Notre Dame lost by 26 at home to 11-1 Michigan and by 20 points at 10-2 USC. WVU's losses are better than ND's and their wins are probably just as good.

 

West Virginia finished 10th in the Sagarin rankings while Notre Dame was 21st though that was after the bowls so they were probably pretty close in that going into the bowls.

 

Like I said, the two teams were pretty darn close and you could make a good argument for both teams and probably a slightly better argument for WVU.

 

I said WVU had the best argument but the margin between ND and WVU last year wasn't really close. ND was at .6287 and WVU at .5073 in the final BCS standings, which should be significant since we're talking about inclusion into the BCS games after all. ND was only .0010 away from making it three spots difference. The computers had ND ranked 9th and WVU tied for 14th. The BCS standings and computer polls had ND ahead by a wide margin and the human polls had them ahead by 2 spots I don't see how the better argument sides with WVU.

[abuck1220]

that loss by kansas to missouri was the best thing that could have happened to them. stupid.

[dalgreen]

I think some of you are upset at the wrong teams. First, be mad at WVU and Mizzou for losing last night. Second, be mad at the BCS ranking because Mizzou was never, ever the best team in the country yet they were ranked #1. Third, be angry that OSU fell to just #7 after losing to Illinois. Fourth, I think had Mizzou been competitive at all in the second half, maybe the Orange Bowl would've chosen them instead of KU. Losing by 21 as a #1 team on a neutral field and you should be punished.

Anybody who knows anything about the Rose Bowl knows that they have always preferred the Big Ten/Pac-10 matchup due to tradition. Those who pick USC to blow out Illinois are probably just hating --- considering that most of these people also thought OSU would blow out Illinois. Considering that USC is a 6 point favorite and playing in their backyard should tell you that the odds makers think highly of Illinois. Now it just remains to be seen what the betting public thinks.

[fiver]

I'm putting money on the OSU-LSU game with that spread...merry January to me.

 

edit--I'm a wee bit intoxicated presently, but I'm pretty sure I'll have the same position on this tomorrow.

[SouthSideRyan]

I'm putting money on the OSU-LSU game with that spread...merry January to me.

 

edit--I'm a wee bit intoxicated presently, but I'm pretty sure I'll have the same position on this tomorrow.

 

Before you put money down without looking, realize that was my personal spread. I read somewhere LSU is favored, I wanna say by 5 or 6.

[Guest]

WVU last year had a good argument.

 

I'm not complaining that ND got in but WVU had just as good of a case as ND did.

 

They had a decent argument but were ranked 12th in the BCS compared to ND's 10th and there was plenty of separation between them. ND was also 2 spots higher in the human polls.

 

2 spots isn't a huge margin.

 

West Virginia's 2 losses were by 10 points at 11-1 Louisville and by 5 points at home to 8-4 South Florida. Notre Dame lost by 26 at home to 11-1 Michigan and by 20 points at 10-2 USC. WVU's losses are better than ND's and their wins are probably just as good.

 

West Virginia finished 10th in the Sagarin rankings while Notre Dame was 21st though that was after the bowls so they were probably pretty close in that going into the bowls.

 

Like I said, the two teams were pretty darn close and you could make a good argument for both teams and probably a slightly better argument for WVU.

 

I said WVU had the best argument but the margin between ND and WVU last year wasn't really close. ND was at .6287 and WVU at .5073 in the final BCS standings, which should be significant since we're talking about inclusion into the BCS games after all. ND was only .0010 away from making it three spots difference. The computers had ND ranked 9th and WVU tied for 14th. The BCS standings and computer polls had ND ahead by a wide margin and the human polls had them ahead by 2 spots I don't see how the better argument sides with WVU.

 

The polls aren't always right. West Virginia's resume last year (I'm not talking about the polls) was just as good if not a bit better than Notre Dame's. The polls favor Notre Dame because they are a traditional power. They're a team that everybody knows. West Virginia isn't and they suffer because of that. If Notre Dame and West Virginia have the same record, Notre Dame is probably going to be ranked higher.

 

Look at the final coaches poll this year (which is 1/3 of the final BCS standings). What makes Texas (9-3, 17th) so much better than South Florida (9-3, 25th)? And do you really think Auburn (8-4, 21st) is four spots better than South Florida even though SF went to Auburn and beat them 26-23?

 

WVU's 2 losses are both better than ND's two regular season losses and their best win (Rutgers) is better than ND's best win. I don't really feel like going through both teams' full schedules and matching up the games so I'm going to stop here.

 

It appears we're just going to have to agree to disagree on this.

[SouthSideRyan]

I like that ND arguments still happen.

[Guest]

With ND completely sucking this year we haven't really had any arguments about them.

[SouthSideRyan]

With ND completely sucking this year we haven't really had any arguments about them.

 

I know, I've felt a certain emptiness in the college football threads. Though the SEC arguments seem to have stepped up in its place. At least UI/IU basketball will always be there for me.

[Guest]

Early spreads for the BCS games:

 

LSU (-6) over Ohio State

Virginia Tech (-4) over Kansas

Oklahoma (-7) over West Virginia

Georgia (-11) over Hawaii

USC (-14) over Illinois

[CuseCubFan69]

Mizzou got ripped off. They lose to the best team in college football twice, beat 2 at large teams and get bounced.

 

I hope the SEC plays the Big 10 enough times in the bowls. Yes, the bowl tradition continues and it'll never change as the rich get richer now matter how good or bad they are.

[chuckywang]

Has a no. 7 ranked team ever jumped a no. 4 ranked team like this in the Coaches poll? I hate how, since it's the last week of the season, the coaches choose rankings differently than any other week. If it were any other week of the season, I guarantee Georgia would be ranked higher than LSU.

[CuseCubFan69]

Has a no. 7 ranked team ever jumped a no. 4 ranked team like this in the Coaches poll? I hate how, since it's the last week of the season, the coaches choose rankings differently than any other week. If it were any other week of the season, I guarantee Georgia would be ranked higher than LSU.

 

The conference is too big, they should have played each other in the regular season or in the Chump game. Of course, not that it mattered for Mizzou.

[Mizzou]

I think some of you are upset at the wrong teams. First, be mad at WVU and Mizzou for losing last night. Second, be mad at the BCS ranking because Mizzou was never, ever the best team in the country yet they were ranked #1. Third, be angry that OSU fell to just #7 after losing to Illinois. Fourth, I think had Mizzou been competitive at all in the second half, maybe the Orange Bowl would've chosen them instead of KU. Losing by 21 as a #1 team on a neutral field and you should be punished.

Anybody who knows anything about the Rose Bowl knows that they have always preferred the Big Ten/Pac-10 matchup due to tradition. Those who pick USC to blow out Illinois are probably just hating --- considering that most of these people also thought OSU would blow out Illinois. Considering that USC is a 6 point favorite and playing in their backyard should tell you that the odds makers think highly of Illinois. Now it just remains to be seen what the betting public thinks.

I don't necessarily disagree with that statement. But no one has been able to present a valid argument as to why Kansas should be in the Orange Bowl rather than Mizzou. And no, because Mizzou wasn't competitive in the 2nd half of a game kU wasn't even able to get to isn't a valid argument.