MacPhail: Deal is dead (p. 297), stop posting, go outside

[BigbadB]

The Orioles only have to clear 1 roster spot from the Mariners trade. If they do a 3 for 1 with the Cubs and all 3 players have to be rostered, that's 2 extra roster spots that need to be cleared (making a total of 3 from the 2 trades).

 

The Orioles still have enough bad players on their roster that 3 openings isn't really a huge deal. They'll probably take 1 or 2 questionable young guys off, and then trade a player like Payton or Gibbons for a low minor leaguer to clear the other spot.

 

It is true that Baltimore has some guys who aren't the best of 40 man roster people, but they will risk losing anyone they remove from the 40 man roster to make room for the Cub players coming back in a Roberts trade, which costs them more talent (in their eyes) than just Roberts. So, those players they get from the Cubs would need to be pretty special to take into consideration it will cost them Roberts and a player or two off the 40 man roster.

[BigbadB]

Basically what I'm getting at is that I find it less and less likely that Roberts will be traded to the Cubs.

[Outshined_One]

I know that people aren't big on Colvin, but do we really want to give up him and Veal, two of our top ten prospects, for Brian Roberts?

 

Believe me, it's a much better idea than giving up Pie and Gallagher. I'm not a big fan of Veal's ability to reach the majors and succeed as a starting pitcher.

 

As a potential power reliever? Possibly. However, if that's his future, I'd be happy to trade that for Roberts.

[craig]

Colvin is blocked in the Cubs system, and his value as a prospect isn't suddenly going to get a whole lot bigger while playing in the minors. It could get a little bigger if he has a huge season, but it's already pretty high and it could come crashing down with a bad year. I've been a big Colvin supporter, but if you're going to stick with Pie in center than there is no room for Colvin anywhere....

 

If it ended up Colvin and Veal for Roberts, I would support that. With Gallagher besides, I'd probably prefer not.

 

But I disagree with some of the substance of your post.

 

Agree: I agree that colvin's value could easily go down. If he has a poor year, and shows no progress on the problems that are currently sometimes excused on basis of inexperience or youth, his stock could drop.

 

Disagree: I disagree that it would be difficult for colvin's stock to rise. IMO there are four common questions/concerns about Colvin. 1. Is he really a CF, or not? 2. A common view seems to be that he's not a power guy. 3. A common concern is his K's, problems with breaking stuff, and problems with LHP. 4. The monster concern is the complete absence of walks last year, leading to all kinds of negative concerns for his future. 5. A fifth is that he hasn't done much at high level.

 

I think he has a chance to dispel or moderate some of those concerns. 1. If he can establish that he really is a legit high-level CF, that boosts his value a lot for people who are currently unconvinced. 2. He hit 16 HR's at age 21 in his first full season, in two pitcher's leagues. If he shows up more muscled this season, hits a few long ones, and boosts his HR output some more, that might alleviate concerns over whether he's "just a gap hitter" and persuade more observers that he's got serious HR potential. 3. Often guys are able to cut back on their K's somewhat and look better versus breaking stuff their second year. K'ing >20%, what kind of a "contact hitter" is he really? But if he was to drop his K's from 101 to 81, scouts who like his stroke in the first place might be more unreserved in touting him as a pure contact hitter. 4. His walk-output was horrible, and the 101K/15walk ratio rightfully scares a lot of people. As I said, if he replicates that, most will be even more skeptical than they are now, and his value will drop. But if he were to boost his walks to, say, 35, and post an 80K/35walk output, skeptics could see real progress. This Adam Jones cat, he walked only 36 times last year, and 28 the year before; that doesn't seem to be stopping him from being viewed as a premium-value prospect. So I think that if Colvin could move in the right direction, from incredibly awful to merely poor in the walk/plate-discipline department, I think that could increase his value by a lot.

 

The other thing i disagree on is that he's "blocked". When you're behind guys with Sori/Aram/Lee/Fukudome contracts, then you are blocked. If 2B is your only real position and we acquire Roberts, then you are blocked. But I don't think being behind Felix Pie who had a .271 OBP in 177 AB last year with no power constitutes a "block". Pie might end up being quite good, a keeper. Great. But Pie has a ways to go before he's established himself as a locked-in-for-years guy.

 

Both Pie and colvin have some serious questions about their hitting. (Many of them are somewhat similar. Too little plate discipline, too many K's, will they hit many HR's?) I think there is good logic in keeping both and hoping that between the two of them, one of them works out to be solid. It's possible that both will excel, in which case you can keep one (Pie, probably) and trade the other. Great. It's possible that both will have such lousy plate discipline and pitch recognition that both will bust, and we'll wish we'd traded them both while they still had real value. But it's also possible that one will be good and the other bust, and it's hard to know now which will be the good one. I'd like to just keep them both just to make sure that if one of them does prove to be good, that we keep the right one.

[craig]

It is true that Baltimore has some guys who aren't the best of 40 man roster people, but they will risk losing anyone they remove from the 40 man roster to make room for the Cub players coming back in a Roberts trade, which costs them more talent (in their eyes) than just Roberts. So, those players they get from the Cubs would need to be pretty special to take into consideration it will cost them Roberts and a player or two off the 40 man roster.

 

There have been good rumors that the Cubs originally offered a pool of guys they could pick, all of whom were 40-man guys. But that Baltimore has pushed to have some non-roster guys added to the pool. Perhaps for the reasons you state. Suppose: original: Gallagher/Marshall/Hart/Wuertz (they could choose any one but not two) + Patterson, Cedeno, Murton, and Fuld (they could choose any two). I could well imagine that Baltimore has lobbied unsuccessfully to add Pie. But I could also imagine that they have lobbied to add some non-roster names to the pool. (Veal and Colvin are the two names that I could imagine them wanting added, although I'm not sure Hendry would be good to add either one).

 

It could well be that considering their 40-man situation, they'd prefer to get 2 roster and 1 non-roster guy rather than 3 roster people.

 

It's also possible this could be a significant hangup. It may simply be that Hendry likes Colvin and Veal too much to add them to the pool; but the dropoff after them is so severe that Baltimore isn't interested in any of our other non-roster guys. (Ceda is highly-ranked but he's very distant; Samardz has no-trade; Vitters, Donaldson, Thomas can't be traded yet; Hernandez, Rhee, Castillo, Huseby may end up good but won't help anybody for years.)

[PrimeTime]

http://mlb.mlb.com/news/article.jsp?ymd=20080204&content_id=2363574&vkey=hotstove2007&fext=.jsp

 

Is about damn time this finally gets done..

[C.C.]

http://mlb.mlb.com/news/article.jsp?ymd=20080204&content_id=2363574&vkey=hotstove2007&fext=.jsp

 

Is about damn time this finally gets done..

 

 

It's not done yet...

[inari]

http://mlb.mlb.com/news/article.jsp?ymd=20080204&content_id=2363574&vkey=hotstove2007&fext=.jsp

 

Is about damn time this finally gets done..

 

Damn, I thought it was going to be about Roberts...

[rsmoler]

There is a rumor on the following site

 

http://yoursportsfix.com/mlbrumormill/archives/category/chicago-cubs-rumors

 

quoting OH regarding the players involved in the Roberts trade. They say its Marshall, Gallagher and Cedeno. I don't believe it, but it makes sense. I don't know how to set up the links so you'll have to copy and paste the url into your browser to read the article.

[cubbyvirus00]

This deal is not gonna happen, can we move on already?............SS is more of a dire need.

[David]

This deal is not gonna happen, can we move on already?............SS is more of a dire need.

 

I think this deal is pretty much inevitable, but maybe I'm wrong.

 

SS is obviously more of a need, but that's not how Hendry sees it.

[Sammy Sofa]

This deal is not gonna happen, can we move on already?............SS is more of a dire need.

 

This thread is active because it's the closests thing to offseason activity that the Cubs have right now, and there's been at least shreds of validity to it along the way.

 

Nothing indicates the Cub are doing anything to get a new SS, yet you want us to start a new thread to talk about their non-moves to get a new SS.

 

Makes complete sense.

[David]

There is a rumor on the following site

 

http://yoursportsfix.com/mlbrumormill/archives/category/chicago-cubs-rumors

 

quoting OH regarding the players involved in the Roberts trade. They say its Marshall, Gallagher and Cedeno. I don't believe it, but it makes sense. I don't know how to set up the links so you'll have to copy and paste the url into your browser to read the article.

 

That's almost a month old and was what really sent this thread into overdrive.

[twothousandfive]

Both Pie and colvin have some serious questions about their hitting. . . I think there is good logic in keeping both and hoping that between the two of them, one of them works out to be solid. . . I'd like to just keep them both just to make sure that if one of them does prove to be good, that we keep the right one.

 

Wise idea, but after Patterson, if Pie fails, I think they almost have to make a trade for someone who is more likely to hit -- Fuld is the all-glove, no-hit defensive CF. So I think Colvin is blocked, either by Pie or by failure of young CFs.

 

You could even argue that Vitters and Donaldson, from the BA top 20, are blocked, by Ramirez and Soto. though I realize saying Donaldson is blocked by Soto is presumptious and exactly what Craig is cautioning against with Colvin.

Vitters, Donaldson, Thomas can't be traded yet;

PTBNL is one way around that,

 

Of course, then basically every position player is the minors is blocked. If they can make informed decisions on some of the arms, they could move the high minor league position players to fill holes in the majors, then see about moving the less talented arms in the high minors to fill-in gaps in the lower minors -- but trading prospects for prospects isn't all that common. Pitching aside, the need for replacements for the Major League roster is really three or four years away, right? Maybe they should load up on high schoolers this summer.

[Vanilla Ice]

Both Pie and colvin have some serious questions about their hitting. . . I think there is good logic in keeping both and hoping that between the two of them, one of them works out to be solid. . . I'd like to just keep them both just to make sure that if one of them does prove to be good, that we keep the right one.

 

Wise idea, but after Patterson, if Pie fails, I think they almost have to make a trade for someone who is more likely to hit -- Fuld is the all-glove, no-hit defensive CF. So I think Colvin is blocked, either by Pie or by failure of young CFs.

 

You could even argue that Vitters and Donaldson, from the BA top 20, are blocked, by Ramirez and Soto. though I realize saying Donaldson is blocked by Soto is presumptious and exactly what Craig is cautioning against with Colvin.

Vitters, Donaldson, Thomas can't be traded yet;

PTBNL is one way around that,

 

Of course, then basically every position player is the minors is blocked. If they can make informed decisions on some of the arms, they could move the high minor league position players to fill holes in the majors, then see about moving the less talented arms in the high minors to fill-in gaps in the lower minors -- but trading prospects for prospects isn't all that common. Pitching aside, the need for replacements for the Major League roster is really three or four years away, right? Maybe they should load up on high schoolers this summer.

 

That is a ridiculous reason for why a prospect is blocked.

[mdwilla]

with all the worries to the Orioles roster space couldn't they just dump some one of Payton/Millar on us and call it a day.

[Soul]

A decent Roberts deal to the Cubs is 100% guaranteed never to happen.

 

 

My predictions suck bones, so hopefully this will get things moving.

[anabiono]

with all the worries to the Orioles roster space couldn't they just dump some one of Payton/Millar on us and call it a day.

 

if we give up both marshall and gallagher then i have to believe that payton is coming our way

 

don't get me wrong i really want roberts because derosa in a super utility will pay dividends for this team, but i think giving up both of our insurance pitchers could really come back to bite us in the arse terribly hard

[Post Count Padder]

I'll post this here too, despite posting it in the Bedard thread:

 

The Erik Bedard-to-Seattle trade could be announced later Monday or on Tuesday, according to multiple reports.

 

The Baltimore Sun agrees that it's just the physicals standing in the way and maybe only the one for Adam Jones. The Orioles are expected to get Jones, George Sherrill, Chris Tillman, Kam Mickolio and Tony Butler from the Mariners for Bedard.

Source: Baltimore Sun

[rchap24]

Two Questions:

so what are the odds you guys think Roberts is still coming here?

Has anyone heard anything about another pitcher were after if were going to put Marshall and Gallagher in the deal?

[craig]

Both Pie and colvin have some serious questions about their hitting. . . I think there is good logic in keeping both and hoping that between the two of them, one of them works out to be solid. . . I'd like to just keep them both just to make sure that if one of them does prove to be good, that we keep the right one.

 

Wise idea, but after Patterson, if Pie fails, I think they almost have to make a trade for someone who is more likely to hit -- Fuld is the all-glove, no-hit defensive CF. So I think Colvin is blocked, either by Pie or by failure of young CFs.....

 

No. It's well possible that all three of Pie, Fuld, and Eric Patterson will stink so badly with the bat that hendry will need to trade for a replacement this year. But that's not certain. Perhaps Fuld or Patterson, or the RH outfielder to be acquired later that Hendry has repeatedly talked about pursuing, could step in for Pie and do an adequate job.

 

But even given the premise that you need to trade for a replacement, it's not likely you trade for a blocker. Most mid-year pickups are more limited short-range plugs (Lofton in 03, Gaetti in 1998) who won't block a good prospect after the year is over. Not likely that you pick up somebody whose quality, age, and guaranteed contract locks the job up for years.

[traderumor]

Roch was interviewed a couple of minutes ago in the Anita Marks show(espn 1300) and said that Roberts will not get traded unless the cubs improve their offer. Roch is a writer from the Baltimore Sun.

[Schwarber Fan]

Roch was interviewed a couple of minutes ago in the Anita Marks show(espn 1300) and said that Roberts will not get traded unless the cubs improve their offer. Roch is a writer from the Baltimore Sun.

 

:lol:

 

Can you imagine? 160+ pages down the drain...

[DeuceBaseman]

Two Questions:

so what are the odds you guys think Roberts is still coming here?

Has anyone heard anything about another pitcher were after if were going to put Marshall and Gallagher in the deal?

 

The Baltimore Sun writer was on the radio and said that if the Cubs don't up their offer for Roberts then he doesn't think he'll be traded. I don't see us putting both Gallagher and Marshall in the deal. Maybe Gallagher and Marquis. I see something like Gallagher, Colvin, Cedeno for Roberts and Payton.

[Mephistopheles]

Luckily what you see does not count.