How much are so many Cub fans overrating Ryan Theriot?

[abuck1220]

I can see your point, though if it bothers you that much maybe you should think about getting a job in the game.

 

From now on, I won't use "the card" anymore.

 

starting now? because you did it in the sentence right before you said you weren't going to do it anymore.

[Guest]

Really if everyone would limit their posts to adding insight such as "Theriot does things that increase his value above that reflected by his OPS", that would make people feel less attacked. The anger comes because some posts seem to want to completely dismiss statistical record on the basis of having watched the player. That is of course ridiculous. I can believe Theriot adds some value to the team beyond his OPS - I believe this value would be reflected in team run production or win percentage or somewhere else though - and I don't see that it has. I'll be the first to say the sample size is small though.

[wvcbxl]

Actually, anyone here is free to have any opinion he/she likes on Ryan Theriot. In the end , Lou's is the only one that matters, and as long as in his opinion Ryan brings more to the team's chances of winning (in whatever way) than the other options available, he's going to run him out there.

 

As to the debate on who should be the starting SS next season, let's save that topic for the offseason. :wink:

[BigbadB]

Just about every poster on this message board has been guilty of being condescending at one point or another, except for me. :D

 

It generally comes from passion within. Each person has their own values they place on what constitutes a good ballplayer, and sometimes those values come off in a negative light towards others. Rather than spending 5 pages worth of posts arguing what is condescending and what isn't, why don't we just move on and talk about Theriot's value to the team, as this thread was meant.

 

Jaxx has apologized for his condescending remarks. What more do you all want? Cubs World Series tickets?

 

Okay, wrong question. :D

[CubColtPacer]

I was thinking about the reasons that Theriot might be overrated by many fans, and I was thinking about some of the misconceptions that have come up in this thread.

 

I think Theriot is overrated less because he hustles, plays the right way, etc. and more because 1) he's young and 2)his spot in the batting order. Theriot bats behind Soriano and in front of Lee and Ramirez. Let's say the bottom of the order gets on and the top of the order doesn't drive them in. Who gets blamed, Theriot, or one of Soriano, Lee, or Ramirez? People are going to say Soriano, Lee, and Ramirez failed because those are the hitters who are supposed to come through in those situations. They are making the big money, they are the power hitters, and they are the veterans. By the same token, when Theriot does well, it's much more memorable because he came through. If Theriot has a hot streak, everybody knows about it, but cold streaks by a player like Theriot are usually ignored because people are concentrating on the faults of the bigger hitters. Over the course of the season, one can get a very distorted picture of what actually happened, and it's perfectly understandable why that's the case.

 

I think Theriot is liked because of his hustle and willingness to do whatever it takes. I think Theriot is overrated because 1)many people love speed just as much as power, and 2) his spot in the batting order around so many big hitters obscures his failures and props up his successes.

[jmajew]

I think everyone can agree here that Theriot is an average SS. However, he has intangibles that in some people's minds make him more important to the team than he actually is. I feel pretty confident in saying that if we had Izturis starting all year over him our record would not be as good as it is today.

 

I liken Theriot to a guy like Aaron Rowand with the 2005 White Sox. He was a very average player but for some reason his intagnibles made him extremely valuable to that team. (Note: Eventhough today he has turned into an All-Star) There are some players who play with such fire and passion that they help up the energy of the rest of the team. Some examples of these players on other teams here in Chicago at this time are Andres Nocioni and Mike Brown (too bad his Bear career is likely over).

 

I know all of this is just a matter of opinion and I wish I had statistical data to back it up but I unfortunately don't.

Edited September 18, 2007 by jmajew

[nilodnayr]

Okay, lets answer some questions:

 

1) Do you have to be a baseball broadcaster, scout or former player to peg a baseball player? Of course not. Anyone can see who is a major leaguer and who isn't, but the opinions from the scouts and those inside the game (not necessarily the broadcaster) should mean a little bit more since they do work in this game.

I think your profession affords you to have a DIFFERENT insight into the game than many of us here. Whether thats better or worse is very debatable. There are many people here who have a significant advantage over you in terms of statistics and economics of baseball.

 

2) Is my opinon spot on 100% of the time? HELL NO!! Shoot, I thought Izturis was a solid acquisition when the Cubs traded for him. I missed big time on that one.. lol

Accuracy of a model to project the future is measured by looking back to see if that model made accurate projections. 95% of posters on this board panned Izturis, you liked him. Everyone makes mistakes, but this is a great example of statistics winning out over those who "watch the game".

 

3) Is Ryan Theriot a solid major league SS? YES!! Look, numbers aside..he has brought something to this team that we haven't seen in quite a long time. Intensity for one and a winning trait. Look at his career. LSU? College World Series title. Champion in Short-A, Low-A, would have been in Double-A one had the Cubs not sent him to the majors in 2005. That's an example of going "beyond the numbers."

 

Baseball is not an individual sport. A position player who starts everyday is what, like 5-6% of a team? Point is, it took a bunch of other guys to win those championships and you provide no evidence that Theriot even helped those teams win championships, just that they won. Did the cardinals win the WS last year because of So Taguchi?

 

4) (Just for you Rob..) Would you rather have a "premium" SS than Theriot? It depends. Would you like to spend 15-20 million dollars a year on one position player who does things better or spend the minimum on a guy who does a solid job and save the money you were going to spend on the "premium" SS to get help in other positions? Look, baseball is a business first and foremost. Numbers wise, A-Rod or Tejada would be perfect, but at what cost? getting average pitching staff?? No thanks.

 

Of course this all depends on a lot of other factors. Scarcity in the labor market, team strengths and weaknesses, etc.

 

5) Have any of you seen batting practice before a game? If you haven't, do yourself a favor and watch it from beginning to end. At some point in the practice (toward the beginning), you will see players hitting the ball to the right side. Why? Because hitting the ball to the right side with a runner at second and less than two outs is ESSENTIAL in this game. If it weren't, they wouldn't be working on it.

 

The game ends when you and your opponent each commit 27 outs (simply speaking). If at the end, you have more runs than your opponent, you win. Obviously, there is a tradeoff between giving up outs to score runs, but this is a long debate for another time. BLOT, not making outs is ESSENTIAL in this game.

 

Again, I don't want to sound arrogant because I am not. I am just a guy who has been TREMENDOUSLY BLESSED with the opportunity to "work" in baseball for a living.

Honestly, we all envy the hell out of you.

[brinoch]

Personally, I like Theriot a lot. I know it's irrational. I know he isn't much more than a replacement player. I just like him. Now, of course, I am the same guy who started the Tejada thread for 2008, so obviously, I hope we can upgrade SS for next season.

 

On to something more important: people are entitled to opinions, and they can express them on this board if they will. I think the board is enhanced by a multitude of opinions and perspectives.

[Rob]

Before I even start on this post, I should probably mention that I'm not intending to "pile on" with the rest of the people mocking you for pulling "the card." I do respect that you have a much more keen insight on the actual personalities of the players than those of us who are just watching the games. This is not meant to come off as condescending, I'm just trying to start an earnest discussion.

 

Okay, lets answer some questions:

 

1) Do you have to be a baseball broadcaster, scout or former player to peg a baseball player? Of course not. Anyone can see who is a major leaguer and who isn't, but the opinions from the scouts and those inside the game (not necessarily the broadcaster) should mean a little bit more since they do work in this game.

 

I don't think anybody here is about to start debating that scouts have a wealth of information available to them that the rest of us don't. I think the trick is just in realizing exactly how much extra credence we should give their opinions. If Gary Hughes thinks taking a flier out on Jason Kendall is a good idea, sometimes that'll work out. But if he tried to convince us to resign him to a three year deal at five mil a year, he'd be past the limit of his credibility.

 

2) Is my opinon spot on 100% of the time? HELL NO!! Shoot, I thought Izturis was a solid acquisition when the Cubs traded for him. I missed big time on that one.. lol

 

This is just one where the number crunchers had a better grasp on the game than the scouts. Again, the trick is in acquiring all the information possible, which allows somebody to make the best decision possible. Stats and scouts.

 

3) Is Ryan Theriot a solid major league SS? YES!! Look, numbers aside..he has brought something to this team that we haven't seen in quite a long time. Intensity for one and a winning trait. Look at his career. LSU? College World Series title. Champion in Short-A, Low-A, would have been in Double-A one had the Cubs not sent him to the majors in 2005. That's an example of going "beyond the numbers."

 

This one kinda hinges on the definition of "solid." As far as the numbers are concerned, they really do tell the whole story as far as offensive output for players goes. Theriot is well below average with the bat, even for a shortstop. No amount of situational hitting is going to be enough to change that. Defensively, the numbers wont be out until after the season (and are less reliable anyways), but Theriot obviously is severely lacking in range and his arm strength is mediocre at best. He is an excellent baserunner, however. All in all, the total package rates as below average. He's not hurting us all that much (and we don't have any better options anyways), but he's not helping either. Is that "solid" or not?

 

As far as the fact he's played on a lot of championship teams, shouldn't the team get credit for that, not the player? The other guys on the teams he was on were certainly having a lot more to do with their success than he did.

 

4) (Just for you Rob..) Would you rather have a "premium" SS than Theriot? It depends. Would you like to spend 15-20 million dollars a year on one position player who does things better or spend the minimum on a guy who does a solid job and save the money you were going to spend on the "premium" SS to get help in other positions? Look, baseball is a business first and foremost. Numbers wise, A-Rod or Tejada would be perfect, but at what cost? getting average pitching staff?? No thanks.

 

The general talent level of this team puts us in the position where each marginal win gains us quite a bit of money (in terms of likely postseason revenues, as well as merchandising and other forms of income). Signing a guy like ARod in the offseason would essentially cost us a lot less than it would if the Royals signed him for the exact same amount of money, since he would bring in much more for us. And seeing as how SS is the only position this offseason where there will be readily available (and very large) upgrades, I see no reason not to peg Theriot as the guy that should be on the way to the bench. It's nothing personal, as he seems like a very affable fellow, but business-wise, it's the right decision to make assuming the cost is right.

 

5) Have any of you seen batting practice before a game? If you haven't, do yourself a favor and watch it from beginning to end. At some point in the practice (toward the beginning), you will see players hitting the ball to the right side. Why? Because hitting the ball to the right side with a runner at second and less than two outs is ESSENTIAL in this game. If it weren't, they wouldn't be working on it.

 

That's what we call circular reasoning. They do it, so it must be important. And it's important, cause, otherwise, why would they do it? It's a logical fallacy. The fact of the matter is that, while it can certainly come in handy to have advanced the runner to third, it's not really essential in the truest sense of the word. If Theriot were a better hitter, he could be trying to pull the ball and hit it in the gap or over the wall. Hitting a groundout to the right side decreases overall run expectancy for the inning, while only giving a slight bump to the odds of scoring a single run in the inning. The only time it can be considered remotely essential is in the late innings of a one-run game, where the decrease in run expectancy is covered for by the increase of win expectancy.

 

Again, I don't want to sound arrogant because I am not. I am just a guy who has been TREMENDOUSLY BLESSED with the opportunity to "work" in baseball for a living.

 

And I do thank you for being willing to share your experiences here on the board. It'd be nice if we were on the same page tactically, but it's hardly essential to a rational discourse. I hope to work in the business someday myself, and the ability to pick your brain is greatly appreciated.

[David]

ROFL, Murph is on the Score right now on a rant about how much criticism he's gotten for saying Theriot is the team MVP.

 

I was a little amazed to hear Bruce Miles agree with him on that, btw.

 

Anyway, it's a flat out ridiculous claim and he deserves all the emails he's gotten. Now he's calling all his cronies onto the air that agree with him.

 

Give me a freaking break. How can anybody even suggest that Theriot is more valuable to this team than Aramis, Lee, Soriano, or even DeRosa?

 

Why do people love to make completely absurd hyperbolic statements like this? Theriot isn't any major league team's MVP.

[David]

Oh, and now he's acting like Theriot's walk last night is vindication.

 

What a loud mouth moron. I cannot stand Mike Murphy (and yet I listen to him, I know...It's the only local sports talk on at this time..I usually wait him out before B&B)....

 

 

He's a nice little player, that's it.

[nilodnayr]

Oh, and now he's acting like Theriot's walk last night is vindication.

 

What a loud mouth moron. I cannot stand Mike Murphy (and yet I listen to him, I know...It's the only local sports talk on at this time..I usually wait him out before B&B)....

 

 

He's a nice little player, that's it.

 

ARam's game tying triple (and game winning PR run) get any mention?

[CUBZ99]

Theriot's story plays very well with the Cub's success this year. Here is a guy that has a great attitude, has had to struggle to win a job and overcame some pretty big obstacles to get to the spot he is at. Who doesn't like to see the underdog succeed?

 

I admit I am completely bias, and I was lucky enough to meet him and there isn't a nicer guy. I'm sure some of that plays into peoples perception of whether he is a good player or not. Once again, who doesn't want to root for the down-to-earth nice guy?

 

I think it is impossible to overlook those personal aspects when judging a player.

 

When you break down Theriot's statistics this year, I think he has done a decent job as a SS. The team would have killed for that type of production last year. His slide since the All Star break has been troublesome though and I don't think that you ever want to get to the point where you are just playing a guy because he is a good guy and completely overlooking his production.

 

I hope that any GM will at least look at options and made upgrades at any position possible. If the Cubs happen into a tremendous upgrade at SS good for them.

[Guest]

I would play him but I wouldn't bat him 2nd. And I would look to upgrade the position for next year. I don't see how the pitching staff would be hurt as those spots are pretty well filled for 2008, aren't they? So you upgrade RF and SS and hope that Soto produces again. If not, you bat him 8th.

[Guest]

Give me a freaking break. How can anybody even suggest that Theriot is more valuable to this team than Aramis, Lee, Soriano, or even DeRosa?

 

Why do people love to make completely absurd hyperbolic statements like this? Theriot isn't any major league team's MVP.

 

Hell, I'd say Marmol has been more valuable than Theriot and he's only a reliever who wasn't even in the bigs in April.

[Rob]

Give me a freaking break. How can anybody even suggest that Theriot is more valuable to this team than Aramis, Lee, Soriano, or even DeRosa?

 

Why do people love to make completely absurd hyperbolic statements like this? Theriot isn't any major league team's MVP.

 

Hell, I'd say Marmol has been more valuable than Theriot and he's only a reliever who wasn't even in the bigs in April.

 

Marmol has a WARP3 of 4.3, while Theriot has a 3.7... and that doesn't even account for Marmol's much higher leverage.

[Soul]

Give me a freaking break. How can anybody even suggest that Theriot is more valuable to this team than Aramis, Lee, Soriano, or even DeRosa?

 

Why do people love to make completely absurd hyperbolic statements like this? Theriot isn't any major league team's MVP.

 

Hell, I'd say Marmol has been more valuable than Theriot and he's only a reliever who wasn't even in the bigs in April.

 

Marmol has a WARP3 of 4.3, while Theriot has a 3.7... and that doesn't even account for Marmol's much higher leverage.

 

It's silly to say Theriot is the MVP of the team, but it's also silly to say he's complete garbage after solidifying the SS position and giving us at least a couple decent months of production when we had absolutely nothing coming from that position.

[jaxxradio]

Rob,

 

Let me break down your answers one by one..

 

In question number two, you said getting "all the information possible." While I totally agree with you, here is yet another example of the game being "more than numbers." There were many people in the organization who felt that Maddux wasn't coming back at the end of the year. They traded him for what they felt was the best offer out there.

 

In question three, you said Theriot is "lacking in range and his arm strength is mediocore at best." Your way off-base IMO. Theriot has good range, not great but good and his arm is solid. You asked if "the team, not the player should get credit?" This is the what came first the chicken or the egg scenario. I do agree that the team should be given credit, but having said that is it just a coincidence that Theriot has won multiple chamionships?? I don't think so. That's where the "clubhouse chemistry" scenario comes into effect. Again, going "beyond the numbers."

 

In question four, you said that "signing A-Rod would essentialy cost us a lot less than if the Royals signed him for the exact same amount of money." Hate to say it Rob, but your wrong and I will explain why. The Cubs play to 90-95% capacity everyday while the Royals are lucky to be at 40-50%. If the Cubs signed him, there isn't enough of a surplus from ticket sales to justify this where as the Royals would make solid gains just from the hike in attendance by 10-15,000 a game. I do agree that merchandising sales and other forms of income would increase, but not nearly as much as the Royals. Add to the fact that the Cubs are in the middle of being sold and the point is moot. A-Rod won't be a Cub unless the team is sold immediately after the season, which is highly doubtful.

 

In question five, you called hitting behind the runner a "circular reasoning." Perhaps it isn't wise to move a runner up a base all the time, but in certain situations, it is not only the right thing to do, its done. You might have numbers to back up how wrong it is, but EVERYONE in this game has done it. Let me put it to you this way.. if a pitcher is working a hitter on the outer edge of the plate, the last thing a player wants to do is pull the ball because it will result in a weak groundout or pop out. The player is taught to take that pitch the other way. In a perfect scenario, a basehit or extra basehit would be ideal, but life ain't perfect. Thats why the hitter hits behind the runner with less than two outs.

 

In a perfect world, I would love to see a game with all of you guys and gals just to see how you view the game. I'm sure we could all have fun dissecting the game over a Bud.

[Abe Frohman]

In addition, would you agree that some times a double is better than a home run? I definately would.

[XZero771679666304]

In addition, would you agree that some times a double is better than a home run? I definately would.

 

How is a double ever better than a homer?

[David]

In addition, would you agree that some times a double is better than a home run? I definately would.

 

I definitely wouldn't. This is another of those conventional wisdom statements that people continue to perpetuate that make no logical sense. It's the "home runs are rally killers" mindset.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

In addition, would you agree that some times a double is better than a home run? I definately would.

 

No, not ever.

[rocket]

at best a double can be equal to a homerun, if it's a 9th inning walkoff situation. but a double ever better than a homerun? no way.

[USSoccer]

In addition, would you agree that some times a double is better than a home run? I definately would.

 

The only time a double is better than a homer is if your the team that gave up the double.

[XZero771679666304]

In addition, would you agree that some times a double is better than a home run? I definately would.

 

No, not ever.

 

There are some who think homers can be "rally killers". Not to sound like Meph, but that is completely stupid.

 

You take the sure run over a potential run at second every single time.