How much are so many Cub fans overrating Ryan Theriot?

[cheapseats]

Give me a freaking break. How can anybody even suggest that Theriot is more valuable to this team than Aramis, Lee, Soriano, or even DeRosa?

 

Why do people love to make completely absurd hyperbolic statements like this? Theriot isn't any major league team's MVP.

 

Hell, I'd say Marmol has been more valuable than Theriot and he's only a reliever who wasn't even in the bigs in April.

 

Marmol has a WARP3 of 4.3, while Theriot has a 3.7... and that doesn't even account for Marmol's much higher leverage.

 

WARP for pitchers is leverage adjusted. Well sorta. It's a [expletive] way but it is. BP really has a disaster on their hands with WARP for pitchers. Its too bad theyre too dumb to know it

 

oh and in addition, Marmol's leverage isnt all that high for a reliever. It really isnt. Thats Lous fault more than anything.

 

I just looked it up. 53rd in the NL.

 

Seems like it should be a lot higher.

 

Correct me if I'm wrong (and I very well could be since I don't know a ton about Leverage Index), but isn't Leverage Index a situational stat, based on the various game state (inning, score, men on base, and outs). Its NOT based on who the pitcher is facing, right? So, while Dempster can pitch in the 9th inning of a one run game against the 7th, 8th, and whoever is left to pinch hit, Marmol could have pitched the 7th inning of a game with the same score against the 1st, 2nd, and 3rd hitters and would have a much lower leverage index, correct? As I'm writing this, I'm realizing that I'm kinda getting away from the main point of LI, but it would be cool to incorporate the OPS (or since its a Tangotiger stat, wOBA) of the batters the pitcher is facing. That would provide a more indepth picture as to how important the situation is.

 

The difference between opponents' OPS for Dempster and Marmol is negligible.

[Rob]

Dempster's actually faced tougher batters (by .004 points of OPS)

[nilodnayr]

Ok, I'll quit my Lou defending :D

[dew1679666265]

I think in the circumstance presented they are exactly the same. Since the fourth run doesn't matter, having it score earlier doesn't help either. The run expectancy if its the bottom half only matters for runs 5 and 6. if its the top half, run expectancy matters more but only beyond run 5. In conclusion, if it helps the next batter, then the double could be better but I don't think that is universally true.

 

This is kind of how I feel. In a purely hypothetical situation, I'd take the home run (and, thus, fourth run on the board) over the double.

 

But, if for some reason the next batter feels better hitting with men on, I guess I'd prefer the double so he'll be more comfortable. Ultimately, I don't think it matters a lot either way. The same stuff needs to happen in either situation.

[Outshined_One]

But, if for some reason the next batter feels better hitting with men on, I guess I'd prefer the double so he'll be more comfortable. Ultimately, I don't think it matters a lot either way. The same stuff needs to happen in either situation.

 

There's something to be said for the pitcher's side of things, too. Some guys have trouble pitching out of the stretch as opposed to pitching out of the windup. It's not a universal for all pitchers, but it's something which can have an impact.

[dew1679666265]

But, if for some reason the next batter feels better hitting with men on, I guess I'd prefer the double so he'll be more comfortable. Ultimately, I don't think it matters a lot either way. The same stuff needs to happen in either situation.

 

There's something to be said for the pitcher's side of things, too. Some guys have trouble pitching out of the stretch as opposed to pitching out of the windup. It's not a universal for all pitchers, but it's something which can have an impact.

 

True, but in the situation laid out, the closer's in and most closers couldn't care less about the runners. Most focus entirely on the hitter.

[Banedon]

A) Bases loaded in the ninth...down 5-0...nobody out...batter doubles in 3...5-3...batter lines out to the second baseman who's momentum is taking him towards the bag...double play...batter is now up with 2 outs and nobody on...2 runs down...batter can't even tie the game with a homer.

 

(Admittedly the DP is unlikely, but the fact is that there is that the man on base is a possibility for an out somewhere along the way...pickoff...play at home...rundown...)

 

B) Bases loaded in the ninth...down 5-0...nobody out...batter hits a grand slam...5-4...the next batter can tie the game with a homer, or just get a hit because there is nobody out and batters behind him he can allow to drive him in...there's no possibility of anyone other than the batter making an out at this point...the pitcher has just allowed 4 runs without recording an out..no reason to think you can't get 1 more in 3 outs.

 

 

 

B please.

[dew1679666265]

A) Bases loaded in the ninth...down 5-0...nobody out...batter doubles in 3...5-3...batter lines out to the second baseman who's momentum is taking him towards the bag...double play...batter is now up with 2 outs and nobody on...2 runs down...batter can't even tie the game with a homer.

 

(Admittedly the DP is unlikely, but the fact is that there is that the man on base is a possibility for an out somewhere along the way...pickoff...play at home...rundown...)

 

B) Bases loaded in the ninth...down 5-0...nobody out...batter hits a grand slam...5-4...the next batter can tie the game with a homer, or just get a hit because there is nobody out and batters behind him he can allow to drive him in...there's no possibility of anyone other than the batter making an out at this point...the pitcher has just allowed 4 runs without recording an out..no reason to think you can't get 1 more in 3 outs.

 

 

 

B please.

 

The original question stipulated there were two outs. I don't think that changes the outcome, just the reasoning.

[CuseCubFan69]

Now if the home run was hit in Florida would anyone even know it happened?

[Banedon]

A) Bases loaded in the ninth...down 5-0...nobody out...batter doubles in 3...5-3...batter lines out to the second baseman who's momentum is taking him towards the bag...double play...batter is now up with 2 outs and nobody on...2 runs down...batter can't even tie the game with a homer.

 

(Admittedly the DP is unlikely, but the fact is that there is that the man on base is a possibility for an out somewhere along the way...pickoff...play at home...rundown...)

 

B) Bases loaded in the ninth...down 5-0...nobody out...batter hits a grand slam...5-4...the next batter can tie the game with a homer, or just get a hit because there is nobody out and batters behind him he can allow to drive him in...there's no possibility of anyone other than the batter making an out at this point...the pitcher has just allowed 4 runs without recording an out..no reason to think you can't get 1 more in 3 outs.

 

 

 

B please.

 

The original question stipulated there were two outs. I don't think that changes the outcome, just the reasoning.

 

Fair enough...the man on base is still a potential out though no matter how many outs there are. If you have the choice of him scoring, or leaving him out there...why take the risk of him getting out on a pickoff or some other baserunning gaffe?

[dew1679666265]

Now if the home run was hit in Florida would anyone even know it happened?

 

Only the Shadow knows... :shock:

[dew1679666265]

A) Bases loaded in the ninth...down 5-0...nobody out...batter doubles in 3...5-3...batter lines out to the second baseman who's momentum is taking him towards the bag...double play...batter is now up with 2 outs and nobody on...2 runs down...batter can't even tie the game with a homer.

 

(Admittedly the DP is unlikely, but the fact is that there is that the man on base is a possibility for an out somewhere along the way...pickoff...play at home...rundown...)

 

B) Bases loaded in the ninth...down 5-0...nobody out...batter hits a grand slam...5-4...the next batter can tie the game with a homer, or just get a hit because there is nobody out and batters behind him he can allow to drive him in...there's no possibility of anyone other than the batter making an out at this point...the pitcher has just allowed 4 runs without recording an out..no reason to think you can't get 1 more in 3 outs.

 

 

 

B please.

 

The original question stipulated there were two outs. I don't think that changes the outcome, just the reasoning.

 

Fair enough...the man on base is still a potential out though no matter how many outs there are. If you have the choice of him scoring, or leaving him out there...why take the risk of him getting out on a pickoff or some other baserunning gaffe?

 

This is an excellent point no one has brought up. The more I think about it, the more I prefer the home run. Outside of the batter's mentality, there's nothing really supporting not guaranteeing the fourth run.