How much are so many Cub fans overrating Ryan Theriot?

[frostwyrm]

I understand Theriot is mediocre but it's not too early to start addressing the budget crunch looming in 2009-2010. Part of the price of these recent gigantic contracts handed out by Hendry is that some spots will need to be filled by very cheap players unless the new ownership is a huge spender, which we don't know yet. Theriot has to stay in the meantime.

[jaxxradio]

USS.. I disagree..the tying run at the plate can double or triple the fourth run in to make it 5-4 with the tying run at second or third. The next batter no longer has to worry about hitting a home run.. he can single and the game is tied.

[Guest]

USS.. I disagree..the tying run at the plate can double or triple the fourth run in to make it 5-4 with the tying run at second or third. The next batter no longer has to worry about hitting a home run.. he can single and the game is tied.

 

Well, in the case of the HR, the batter following him can also double or triple.

[FergieJ31]

Like so many things in baseball (and in life), he isn't as bad as his detractors say nor is he as good as his backers say. But according to my wife, he is as hot as the Lincoln Park Trixies say. Edited September 18, 2007 by FergieJ31

[Mephistopheles]

Give me a freaking break. How can anybody even suggest that Theriot is more valuable to this team than Aramis, Lee, Soriano, or even DeRosa?

 

Why do people love to make completely absurd hyperbolic statements like this? Theriot isn't any major league team's MVP.

 

Hell, I'd say Marmol has been more valuable than Theriot and he's only a reliever who wasn't even in the bigs in April.

 

Marmol has a WARP3 of 4.3, while Theriot has a 3.7... and that doesn't even account for Marmol's much higher leverage.

 

WARP for pitchers is leverage adjusted. Well sorta. It's a [expletive] way but it is. BP really has a disaster on their hands with WARP for pitchers. Its too bad theyre too dumb to know it

 

oh and in addition, Marmol's leverage isnt all that high for a reliever. It really isnt. Thats Lous fault more than anything.

 

I'm curious, why do you say that?

 

Because he hasn't been used in tough spots in the 9th or 8th innings muched. He's been there in the 8th recently but not much earlier. His LI is 1.25 from fangraphs and 1.15 from BP, not very high

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=rel&lg=all&qual=n&type=0&season=2007

[Transmogrified Tiger]

USS.. I disagree..the tying run at the plate can double or triple the fourth run in to make it 5-4 with the tying run at second or third. The next batter no longer has to worry about hitting a home run.. he can single and the game is tied.

 

None of that changes with the home run except that the game is already 5-4.

[imb]

I can't believe this is an actual argument that actual people are having. My mind is boggled.

[kente777]

I can't believe this is an actual argument that actual people are having. My mind is boggled.

 

It's amazing that we are even debating whether a double is better than a home run. Man, has this thread gone to heII.

 

Ken

[Guest]

Because he hasn't been used in tough spots in the 9th or 8th innings muched. He's been there in the 8th recently but not much earlier. His LI is 1.25 from fangraphs and 1.15 from BP, not very high

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=rel&lg=all&qual=n&type=0&season=2007

 

Oh, fair point.

[XZero771679666304]

USS.. I disagree..the tying run at the plate can double or triple the fourth run in to make it 5-4 with the tying run at second or third. The next batter no longer has to worry about hitting a home run.. he can single and the game is tied.

 

 

 

If the fourth run has already crossed the plate, the next batter only has to reach second to allow the following batter to drive him in with a base hit anyway, the same as in your scenario, but with the fourth run already on the board.

 

I don't know why you keep implying anyone has to follow the HR with another HR, since the following two batters would only have to do what they would if there was a runner on anyway.

 

It's really strange logic.

[imb]

I can't believe this is an actual argument that actual people are having. My mind is boggled.

 

It's amazing that we are even debating whether a double is better than a home run. Man, has this thread gone to heII.

 

Ken

 

You know what's even better than the double? A single! Then we have two men on base still. And technically, we could move Quade over to second and pretend that the bases are loaded. Say that ARam comes up to bat, does he want to bat with no one on where he has to try to force out a homerun or does he want to bat with the BASES JUICED!!? Make Quade the second base coach, tell Ramirez that he's a base runner and BAM guaranteed win, it's science, ho.

[USSoccer]

USS.. I disagree..the tying run at the plate can double or triple the fourth run in to make it 5-4 with the tying run at second or third. The next batter no longer has to worry about hitting a home run.. he can single and the game is tied.

 

None of that changes in a 5-4 game as a result of a home run. Unless you are convinced that the only option the hitter has in a 5-4, no one on scenario is to hit a home run. He has other outcomes at his disposal.

 

Seriously, this isn't hard. I can't believe this is an actual debate.

Edited September 18, 2007 by USSoccer

[CDBears1259]

I can't believe this is an actual argument that actual people are having. My mind is boggled.

 

It's amazing that we are even debating whether a double is better than a home run. Man, has this thread gone to heII.

Ken

 

That happend about 8 pages ago.

[David]

I can't believe this is an actual argument that actual people are having. My mind is boggled.

 

I was thinking the same thing.

 

It's like arguing whether or not the sky is blue or something.

[Rob]

Give me a freaking break. How can anybody even suggest that Theriot is more valuable to this team than Aramis, Lee, Soriano, or even DeRosa?

 

Why do people love to make completely absurd hyperbolic statements like this? Theriot isn't any major league team's MVP.

 

Hell, I'd say Marmol has been more valuable than Theriot and he's only a reliever who wasn't even in the bigs in April.

 

Marmol has a WARP3 of 4.3, while Theriot has a 3.7... and that doesn't even account for Marmol's much higher leverage.

 

WARP for pitchers is leverage adjusted. Well sorta. It's a [expletive] way but it is. BP really has a disaster on their hands with WARP for pitchers. Its too bad theyre too dumb to know it

 

oh and in addition, Marmol's leverage isnt all that high for a reliever. It really isnt. Thats Lous fault more than anything.

 

I just looked it up. 53rd in the NL.

 

Seems like it should be a lot higher.

[jaxxradio]

Raisin, you are right. Like I said its six of one, half dozen of the other if the rally is complete. I'm just saying there are guys in the game that would rather have guys on base if given the preference. I think its the whole "working from the stretch instead of the windup" argument.

 

Don't shoot the messenger.. lol

[USSoccer]

I'm just saying there are guys in the game that would rather have guys on base if given the preference. I think its the whole "working from the stretch instead of the windup" argument.

 

Then this is an excellent example of when being "in the game" doesn't make you more informed on a subject.

 

Look at TT's post. How many relievers/closers use the windup? How many would care about the 4th run in a 5-3 game?

 

This is conventional wisdom proven wrong. Look at every scenario. You still need the same outcomes, so why not take the extra run? If you say having a guy on 2nd rattles the pitcher, why wouldn't giving up a grand slam rattle him?

 

It doesn't make sense on any level to not take the extra run.

Edited September 18, 2007 by USSoccer

[kente777]

I can't believe this is an actual argument that actual people are having. My mind is boggled.

 

It's amazing that we are even debating whether a double is better than a home run. Man, has this thread gone to heII.

 

Ken

 

You know what's even better than the double? A single! Then we have two men on base still. And technically, we could move Quade over to second and pretend that the bases are loaded. Say that ARam comes up to bat, does he want to bat with no one on where he has to try to force out a homerun or does he want to bat with the BASES JUICED!!? Make Quade the second base coach, tell Ramirez that he's a base runner and BAM guaranteed win, it's science, ho.

 

singles and doubles only clog up the bases, dude!

[UK1679666180]

What if the Cubs are facing Peavy and the double was from a line drive that hit Peavy sneaking into shallow LF while knocking him out of the game? :)

 

Seriously, give me the HR every time and trust that the next hitter will have a good approach w/no one and try to do whatever he can to get on base.

[Rob]

What if the Cubs are facing Peavy and the double was from a line drive that hit Peavy sneaking into shallow LF while knocking him out of the game? :)

 

Seriously, give me the HR every time and trust that the next hitter will have a good approach w/no one and try to do whatever he can to get on base.

 

Actually, I will conceed that if it hurts one of the opposing players with great range and forces him out of the game, the double would possibly be better than the dinger...

 

It'd have to be the sort of injury that forces Daryle Ward to play center or something though.

[nilodnayr]

Give me a freaking break. How can anybody even suggest that Theriot is more valuable to this team than Aramis, Lee, Soriano, or even DeRosa?

 

Why do people love to make completely absurd hyperbolic statements like this? Theriot isn't any major league team's MVP.

 

Hell, I'd say Marmol has been more valuable than Theriot and he's only a reliever who wasn't even in the bigs in April.

 

Marmol has a WARP3 of 4.3, while Theriot has a 3.7... and that doesn't even account for Marmol's much higher leverage.

 

WARP for pitchers is leverage adjusted. Well sorta. It's a [expletive] way but it is. BP really has a disaster on their hands with WARP for pitchers. Its too bad theyre too dumb to know it

 

oh and in addition, Marmol's leverage isnt all that high for a reliever. It really isnt. Thats Lous fault more than anything.

 

I just looked it up. 53rd in the NL.

 

Seems like it should be a lot higher.

 

Correct me if I'm wrong (and I very well could be since I don't know a ton about Leverage Index), but isn't Leverage Index a situational stat, based on the various game state (inning, score, men on base, and outs). Its NOT based on who the pitcher is facing, right? So, while Dempster can pitch in the 9th inning of a one run game against the 7th, 8th, and whoever is left to pinch hit, Marmol could have pitched the 7th inning of a game with the same score against the 1st, 2nd, and 3rd hitters and would have a much lower leverage index, correct? As I'm writing this, I'm realizing that I'm kinda getting away from the main point of LI, but it would be cool to incorporate the OPS (or since its a Tangotiger stat, wOBA) of the batters the pitcher is facing. That would provide a more indepth picture as to how important the situation is.

[haltz]

I'm just saying there are guys in the game that would rather have guys on base if given the preference.

Example #97 of cliches players spout to journalists.

 

What if some guys feel like they get in a better rhythm when the pitcher is in the windup?

 

In the end, it doesn't matter. Players know it doesn't matter, but you don't actually think they would ever possibly say they don't like hitting with runners on, do you?

 

a) "I try to wait for my pitch and hit the **** out of it, because I'd like to be in Chicago not West Tennessee. I don't care who's standing where."

 

b) "I'm a team player."

 

As I'm writing this, I'm realizing that I'm kinda getting away from the main point of LI, but it would be cool to incorporate the OPS (or since its a Tangotiger stat, wOBA) of the batters the pitcher is facing. That would provide a more indepth picture as to how important the situation is.

According to Tango, it depends on if you are gambling or if you want to reward performance. If you are gambling you want to know how much Utley changes WP, but if you are concerned with performance evaluation, you'd have to devalue contributions from good players to do it this way since it's zero-sum. I think that's it anyway. I'll look it up.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

In the end, it doesn't matter. Players know it doesn't matter, but you don't actually think they would ever possibly say they don't like hitting with runners on, do you?

 

a) "I try to wait for my pitch and hit the **** out of it, because I'd like to be in Chicago not West Tennessee. I don't care who's standing where."

 

b) "I'm a team player."

 

I laughed entirely too hard at this.

[Sosa21MVP]

Please note that the original poster didn't question why people like Theriot. He questioned why people overrate him as a player. There's a pretty significant difference there.

 

I really don't see a significant difference but maybe it's just me. People tend to overrate their favorites. I see it happen a lot on the various boards where I post for all my teams. There are Pacers fans that think Jeff Foster is worth a lottery pick in the NBA draft. :lol:

 

I just think when a person really likes a player, everything they see & hear with regards to that player is put through a filter where every positive is magnified a thousand times and the negatives kind of get....filtered out a bit. Not really a brilliant piece of analysis on my part but it's my two cents on the subject. :wink:

[Guest]

I think in the circumstance presented they are exactly the same. Since the fourth run doesn't matter, having it score earlier doesn't help either. The run expectancy if its the bottom half only matters for runs 5 and 6. if its the top half, run expectancy matters more but only beyond run 5. In conclusion, if it helps the next batter, then the double could be better but I don't think that is universally true.