Oh No: Cade Horton Out for Season, to Undergo UCL Surgery

[gflore34]

7 minutes ago, CubinNY said:

My opinion (obviously) is that they should let Assad and Rae pitch until they demonstrate they can't do the job. There is no sense in making a panic move or signing scrap heap guys. I'd like to give Brown a shot too, but he needs to throw more strikes. Unless he develops a better third pitch he can use with higher regularity, he isn't a starter. 

It's not even this, it's his inability to consistently execute his pitches, the stuff is there, the execution is not.  As someone previously mentioned he is who is, he may find some consistent execution in spots but, will never maintain.  He is not someone to be relied upon for effectiveness.

Edited April 9 by gflore34

[Outshined_One]

7 minutes ago, CubinNY said:

My opinion (obviously) is that they should let Assad and Rae pitch until they demonstrate they can't do the job. There is no sense in making a panic move or signing scrap heap guys. I'd like to give Brown a shot too, but he needs to throw more strikes. Unless he develops a better third pitch he can use with higher regularity, he isn't a starter. 

This is pretty much where I'm at with the rotation.  Assad and Rea are unlikely to give you top tier performances every time out, but they're better than anything you'd pick up off the scrap heap and they are the best options you'll find in the system at the moment.  I'd rather not see them finish the season in the rotation, but having Rea pick up a few starts while Boyd rehabs and having Assad go until Steele (or Wiggins) is ready should be good enough for this team to tread water for the next month or two.

[squally1313]

4 minutes ago, CubinNY said:

My opinion (obviously) is that they should let Assad and Rae pitch until they demonstrate they can't do the job. There is no sense in making a panic move or signing scrap heap guys. I'd like to give Brown a shot too, but he needs to throw more strikes. Unless he develops a better third pitch he can use with higher regularity, he isn't a starter. 

Generally agreed. In terms of Brown, the overall, still small sample size numbers have been fine. 10.2 innings, 9.3 K/9, 3.4 BB/9, getting better luck on HR/FB (9.1% v 15.5% last year) and BABIP (.259 v .347). 4.22 ERA, 3.46 FIP. You give Assad and Rea the edge on 'pitchability' or the less metric skills, you give Brown the edge on pure stuff, I'd say at this point, they're all about equal. Brown is also bringing a third pitch into the mix this year. In 2025 he was 56% 4 seam, 40% curveball. So far this year he's at 44% 4 seam, 36% curve, 16% sinker. 

He probably deserves a shot at the starter spot at some point, if only just for attrition at the top. But think he's needed in the role he's currently in and it would be a pretty significant drop off to stretch him out in AAA and have to either make do with a bunch of short relievers behind 5 starters that aren't going deep, or go to like...Cam Sanders or Vince Velasquez. Any set back from Boyd or Steele and you need to start coming up with another plan here, but in the short term it's....fine. 

[Bertz]

I like Brown where he is for right now too.  IMO his primary issue is between the ears.  I think he's gotten snakebitten with BABIP enough times that when he faces some adversity he turns into the CJ "ah horsefeathers here we go again" guy.  We saw it on Sunday where a cheap double and a walk and things started spinning too fast for him.

I'd probably try and keep him in the role he's in for another ~month, then I'd keep him in long relief but try and push him into higher leverage (come into messy innings, close out a 1 run lead in the 7th, etc.) and then look to move him back towards the rotation.

[Bull]

We need to fix this. It is spreading.

 

its spelled Rea. Colin Rea.

[squally1313]

4 minutes ago, Bull said:

We need to fix this. It is spreading.

 

its spelled Rea. Colin Rea.

Are you sure? I'm almost positive that there's an 'h' at the end of it.

[imb]

it's actually spelled caroline anyway

[Tryptamine]

On 4/9/2026 at 8:25 AM, Jason Ross said:

Giolito looks pretty cooked. Ignore the ERA for a moment from last year:
- K% was down from 25% to 19%
- o-contact% up 10%
- 3% swinging strike down
- contact% up 5%
- Stuff+ down to 92 from 97

To recap: hitters swung less (because they're hunting pitches), made more contact when they did swing, made more contact on chase pitches, stopped striking out, and his pitch shape really sucked. Not good.

There's a reason he's a free agent in April. If he wants a full-on MiLB deal with some sort of an opt-out by May-15th to show he's got something in Iowa? Sure. But beyond that, there shouldn't be any rush to offer him a spot. Rea and Assad are probably just as good, Wiggins is probably not *too* far away, and Connor Noland is probably fine for a spot start or Ben Brown if you need them. With how much time it'll take for Gio to ramp up (say, 3-4 weeks) i's probably not far off from when Boyd would be around coming back.

Apparently Giolito wants 2 years which I am 100% out on and the rumored ask has been 15M annually which is way too much.

[Stratos]

Giolito sucks and isn't an upgrade.

[Tangled Up in Plaid]

giolito's agent is out of his mind if he thinks anyone is gonna give him more than a minor league deal at this point

[Bertz]

There is no good news on this front only degrees of bad (insert Curb "Good Hodgkins' joke), but this is one of the better possible outcomes here:

 

 

[UMFan83]

13 minutes ago, Bertz said:

There is no good news on this front only degrees of bad (insert Curb "Good Hodgkins' joke), but this is one of the better possible outcomes here:

 

 

See you next August or September Cade (hopefully)

[Tangled Up in Plaid]

50 minutes ago, Bertz said:

There is no good news on this front only degrees of bad (insert Curb "Good Hodgkins' joke), but this is one of the better possible outcomes here:

 

 

still got hit with the bullet but at least we dodged the nuke

[Irrelevant Dude]

15-16 months is a little long for a revision repair, no?

[KCCub]

11 minutes ago, Irrelevant Dude said:

15-16 months is a little long for a revision repair, no?

That’s what I was thinking. I’m slightly confused on the verbiage I’m seeing reported. The report above is the most detailed and sounds like it came directly from CC. Taylor reported “full TJ”, so I originally thought it wasn’t the brace surgery.

 

[Tangled Up in Plaid]

Just now, KCCub said:

That’s what I was thinking. I’m slightly confused on the verbiage I’m seeing reported. The report above is the most detailed and sounds like it came directly from CC. Taylor reported “full TJ”, so I originally thought it wasn’t the brace surgery.

 

I think T-Mac is wrong here. 15-16 months is the same time table Steele had.

[Stratos]

2 hours ago, Tangled Up in Plaid said:

I think T-Mac is wrong here. 15-16 months is the same time table Steele had.

Weird.  On the broadcast today Taylor said the same as. Her tweet, that Horton had surgery yesterday and when they went inside the elbow they decided to do the full TJS in his UCL.  Out 15-16 months.  

[Tangled Up in Plaid]

21 minutes ago, Stratos said:

Weird.  On the broadcast today Taylor said the same as. Her tweet, that Horton had surgery yesterday and when they went inside the elbow they decided to do the full TJS in his UCL.  Out 15-16 months.  

this directly contradicts Craig who said revision with a brace. Not sure what the deal is

[Irrelevant Dude]

Also, I would be somewhat surprised with the revision procedure in someone Horton's age, as my understanding is that it may not have the same longetivy as a full on ligament replacement.  For a pitcher in their late twenties or early thirties, it makes sense, but Horton could still have a 10+ year career ahead of him.

[Tangled Up in Plaid]

6 minutes ago, Irrelevant Dude said:

Also, I would be somewhat surprised with the revision procedure in someone Horton's age, as my understanding is that it may not have the same longetivy as a full on ligament replacement.

he already had the full Tommy John in college so I'm guessing that's why

[chibears55]

So, he'll either be pitching a major league game in August of 2027 or April 2028.

Even if he's able to pitch in August,  I wouldn't rush him back into the rotation,  id give him 2-3 starts and shut him down,  if he responds ok to that,  then he can have a normal offseason and get him ready for 2028.

 

[BKHoo]

Right - just let him see a taste of baseball again in late 27.  
 

It’s basically a 2028 return. Ouch. 

[gflore34]

I think it best to forget about Cade Horton altogether, with the surgery, chances of re-injury.  He should be removed from the equation of the Cubs future.  Which, of course, is unfortunate and really sucks, it's the price teams pay for velocity.  He'll more likely end up as one of those guys who never pitches again because he can't keep of the injured list.  Than someone who makes it all the way back.

Edited April 18 by gflore34

[Rcal10]

16 minutes ago, gflore34 said:

I think it best to forget about Cade Horton altogether, with the surgery, chances of re-injury.  He should be removed from the equation of the Cubs future.  Which, of course, is unfortunate and really sucks, it's the price teams pay for velocity.  He'll more likely end up as one of those guys who never pitches again because he can't keep of the injured list.  Than someone who make it's all the way back.

I don’t this this is true, at all. Sure, we have to wait and it sucks. And it is possible he doesn’t make it back. But, I think it is more likely he does come back and pitch several years in the majors. Maybe have to temper his projections because of injuries affecting him. But he still has, IMO, a better chance of pitching again in the majors then never pitching again. 

[gflore34]

10 minutes ago, Rcal10 said:

I don’t this this is true, at all. Sure, we have to wait and it sucks. And it is possible he doesn’t make it back. But, I think it is more likely he does come back and pitch several years in the majors. Maybe have to temper his projections because of injuries affecting him. But he still has, IMO, a better chance of pitching again in the majors then never pitching again. 

I hope you're right.