PCA Extended

[chibears55]

2 hours ago, KCCub said:

 

I got the years right... lol

Didn't expect it to be less then 20 per, but him getting another shot at FA at 31 is good for him, and adding 2 more years without any options is good for the Cubs.

Edited March 25 by chibears55

[Soul]

Cubs obviously feel like first-half 2025 PCA is something that can happen more than just half a season.  I love PCA and look forward to that kind of magic in August, September and October.

[Stratos]

55 minutes ago, Jason Ross said:

On the PCA extension: this is a fine deal. For the Cubs it creates cost-certainty through arb-years and not forcing the two sides to have to bicker year-over-year. Because it kicks in during the 2027 and he's days away from his 24th-birthday, this will take him through free agency years one and two, and to age 30 (effectively). 

That feels like a good place for a player like Pete. I love Pete, but as he is today, he's heavily reliant on his legs. We should expect that to be a fall-off skill earlier in his career than other builds, and we also know that swing speed dips around age-32. This is a good sweet spot, IMO. 

Very true about the legs.  Id love to see a sprint speed regression chart like we've seen with bat speed.

[Stratos]

I think this is a good deal for both sides..  Looking at recent 5 WAR players like Bichette and Tucker, they made 4-5m in their first arb year, 12m in the 2nd year, and around 17m in the 3rd.  That's around 35m total in arb. With inflation let's assume PCA could make up to about 45m in his arbitration years pre-FA.

That means the Cubs will effectively be paying about 70m (35m AAV) for Pete's first 2 free agent years, while the Cubs assume all the risk here.  And Pete still gets to hit FA at a good age.

Looking at Tucker's FA deal, 5 WAR in FA at those ages is worth about 55m AAV, and will be higher with inflation when Pete is 29-30.

 

[Stratos]

57 minutes ago, Soul said:

Cubs obviously feel like first-half 2025 PCA is something that can happen more than just half a season.  I love PCA and look forward to that kind of magic in August, September and October.

Even if it doesn't happen he was still a 5.4 fWAR player.

Because of the walks and chase i think he'll typically be limited to sub-120 wRC+ numbers. I hope I'm wrong but i think the plate discipline will always haunt him and will prevent him from reaching his offensive potential similar to Javy.  If PCA could manage just an average BB% his ceiling would be sky high.  He could steal many more bags, get better pitches to drive, and hit higher in the order.  I like his athleticism in box a lot.

[Rcal10]

I would have liked the Cubs having an option year or two added at the end, but I guess 2 additional years of PCA is good. 

[mk49]

I thought and hoped it would be at least 8 years.  

[Rcal10]

1 hour ago, mk49 said:

I thought and hoped it would be at least 8 years.  

Well not starting this year helps. As I said, I would have liked at least one team option. 

[Geographyhater8888]

8 hours ago, Rcal10 said:

I would have liked the Cubs having an option year or two added at the end, but I guess 2 additional years of PCA is good. 

Im not sure how a 32 YO, slower PCA with bad plate discipline and declining bat speed will age either. We have him locked up for his entire peak. 

Edited March 25 by Geographyhater8888

[Bull]

49 minutes ago, Geographyhater8888 said:

Im not sure how a 32 YO, slower PCA with bad plate discipline and declining bat speed will age either. We have him locked up for his entire peak. 

His entire high floor peak.  This does not lock him up for his entire high ceiling peak. It’s equally the Cubs making sure they get the most of his singular defensive prowess (possibly the best ever over the course of this contract) and Pete betting on himself to have made the necessary adjustments to command top dollar at the end of this contract.

that said, if he’s able to pull that off, the Cubs end up with a steal on the two FA years they just bought.

[Geographyhater8888]

14 minutes ago, Bull said:

 

that said, if he’s able to pull that off, the Cubs end up with a steal on the two FA years they just bought.

Correct. If he ever does figure it out then it’s a good bet it’ll happen before he turns 30.

[mul21]

10 hours ago, Stratos said:

I think this is a good deal for both sides..  Looking at recent 5 WAR players like Bichette and Tucker, they made 4-5m in their first arb year, 12m in the 2nd year, and around 17m in the 3rd.  That's around 35m total in arb. With inflation let's assume PCA could make up to about 45m in his arbitration years pre-FA.

That means the Cubs will effectively be paying about 70m (35m AAV) for Pete's first 2 free agent years, while the Cubs assume all the risk here.  And Pete still gets to hit FA at a good age.

Looking at Tucker's FA deal, 5 WAR in FA at those ages is worth about 55m AAV, and will be higher with inflation when Pete is 29-30.

 

Just ignoring a whole year of the contract makes all that math pretty moot.  It's 6 years and doesn't start until next year, so there are 4 arb years being bought out.

[Outshined_One]

I'll go ahead and say it.

Jed deserves a ton of credit for this offseason. He solidified the offensive core of this team for the rest of the decade, addressed the team's weaknesses in the rotation, retooled the bullpen, and dulled the edges of next offseason's roster cliff. It's an A+ offseason.

Now extend Nico!

[JunkyardWalrus]

So… it’s 7 years and 116M (If including 2026 as part of the contract) 

 

[Bertz]

 

 

[chibears55]

33 minutes ago, Bertz said:

 

 

PCA right now is the only one under contract for 2031 and 32, his 30 mil will start right after Bregman 35 ends, and he will still be in his prime years.

Hoyer will have a good opportunity to build around PCA for those years with the upcoming Prospects, current young players under team control now, and future FA.

 

[Rcal10]

2 hours ago, JunkyardWalrus said:

So… it’s 7 years and 116M (If including 2026 as part of the contract) 

 

Yes, typically when a guy signs a contract in the off season it starts that year. So as compared to Merrill, as an example, if Merrill got 9 years, PCA got 7.  Would have been nice to have one more or at least a team option. But this is pretty good. And also a good sign the FO seems to be more in line with other FO in baseball. 

[JunkyardWalrus]

1 hour ago, Rcal10 said:

Yes, typically when a guy signs a contract in the off season it starts that year. So as compared to Merrill, as an example, if Merrill got 9 years, PCA got 7.  Would have been nice to have one more or at least a team option. But this is pretty good. And also a good sign the FO seems to be more in line with other FO in baseball. 

Not complaining, it’s a great gamble on my current favorite player. And yeah, I’m ecstatic when Jed quells my doomboner, not matter how abbreviated, for how he runs the franchise.