BREAKING: Cubs Sign Third Baseman Alex Bregman to Five-Year Deal

[Stratos]

4 hours ago, Bull said:

I really think they find a way to get Shaw 400-500 PAs and ^^^this^^^ is why.

I wonder if he could cover CF in a pinch. 

Yeah they need to do a much better job at resting guys this year.  They couldn't afford to rest Dansby, Nico, PCA last year.  I think Shaw should make this easier

[Tryptamine]

29 minutes ago, Victor Reichman said:

I like Bregman, fine player, but not for 5 yrs and $35/yr. Shaw is a better fielder, came in 2nd to Hayes, far faster, hit 10 HR in 2nd half, and is inexpensive. We had a Gold Glove IF last year. IMO, they offered Nico an extension which he refused and he wants to play for SF or LA. Clearly, best position player on team last year. Seems they might trade either him or Swanson. They must keep Shaw.

You know Shaw would likely still get like 300-400 PAs as the team currently sits, especially if they're able to get him to be passable in LF/RF.

[Bull]

1 hour ago, Tryptamine said:

You know Shaw would likely still get like 300-400 PAs as the team currently sits, especially if they're able to get him to be passable in LF/RF.

Lineup vs Lefties

Hoerner 2B

Happ LF

Suzuki RF/DH

Bregman DH/3B

PCA CF/AMAYA DH

Shaw 3B/RF/CF

Kelly C

Swanson SS

Austin 1B

 

Shaw gives everyone days off and occasionally pushes Bregman to DH. Easy to see 400-500 PAs. And that's with no injuries.

 

Edited January 12 by Bull

[JHBulls]

22 hours ago, ToolDRT said:

Someone convince me to like this. Tucker is just so much better. 

The difference between handing out a $175 million contract and potentially a $300 million contract is what?

No. I am genuinely asking. What is it? 

[ToolDRT]

12 minutes ago, JHBulls said:

The difference between handing out a $175 million contract and potentially a $300 million contract is what?

No. I am genuinely asking. What is it? 

Yeah, I’d pay more for the younger player. I’m not a huge fan of this deal, but I guess they’re trying. 

[Cuzi]

17 minutes ago, JHBulls said:

The difference between handing out a $175 million contract and potentially a $300 million contract is what?

No. I am genuinely asking. What is it? 

Nothing.

From a fan perspective, a teams spending has no effect.

From a team perspective, the difference in the contracts will still be spent on other players.

The only thing that should matter is the AAV that goes to the teams annual budget. We don't know yet what Tuckers AAV will be but if it's within a few million of the 31 handed to Bregman, I will be a little disappointed.

Edited January 12 by Cuzi

[JHBulls]

6 minutes ago, ToolDRT said:

Yeah, I’d pay more for the younger player. I’m not a huge fan of this deal, but I guess they’re trying. 

And try they have. Bregman and Cabrera is a nice offseason. Better than what we’ve been accustomed to. But I totally understand the disappointment. 

[Stratos]

19 minutes ago, ToolDRT said:

Yeah, I’d pay more for the younger player. I’m not a huge fan of this deal, but I guess they’re trying. 

My take too.  But if Jed has some models that somehow show Bregman is more likely to age like fine wine instead of 90% of MLB hitters then I'll worship the ground Jed walks on as a POBO God.

I will say that basically every FA deal Jed has signed over 10m AAV has worked out well so I have a lot of faith in him.  I'm really skeptical on this deal but i guess there's no choice but to see it unfold.

[Stratos]

1 hour ago, Bull said:

Lineup vs Lefties

Hoerner 2B

Happ LF

Suzuki RF/DH

Bregman DH/3B

PCA CF/AMAYA DH

Shaw 3B/RF/CF

Kelly C

Swanson SS

Austin 1B

I'm hitting PCA last vs LHP

[BigbadB]

15 hours ago, Illiterate Scholar said:

I kinda think he's gonna open up as the backup in CF. I have doubts that all 3 of Shaw, Ballesteros, and Alcantara will open the season on the MLB roster, barring injury to someone else. In theory, there's enough ABs but in reality the starters aren't the type who are going to get many days off unless they're injured, in which case depth ready to go in the minors is still helpful. Feels like one of the bench spots will go to a vet who they don't care if he gets like 4 ABs in April.

Let's talk about Shaw, Ballesteros and Alcantara.....

1) Alcantara has no options remaining. Sending him down exposes him to waivers. Not happening. He's also the only current good defensive CF replacement if PCA were to miss time. Shaw might be okay there, but again, Alcantara can't be sent down. He's your 4th outfielder. Period.

2) Shaw is clearly the current utility de jour. He has the ability to play all over the field, and he might be the best utility infielder in MLB this year.

3) Ballesteros is the only current lefty bat of all possible bench/DH options. Could you sign a Tauchman or the like to allow Ballesteros to sit in AAA? Sure. Can they find a better bat than Ballesteros to be the lefty side of DH? Probably not.

The question for me is, is there a future for Ballesteros behind the plate? If not, he's your DH platoon from the left side. He's also your first PH bat against RHP off the bench. So he's actually penciled in as a starter on my roster.

4) Tyler Austin is likely the 4th bench player, after winning the battle with Jonathan Long in ST. Likely winning it simply because Long has options and Austin was signed to be here.

Barring bringing someone else in, I think the offensive roster is set with Jaguar, Shaw, MoBaller and Tyler Austin.

[BigbadB]

19 hours ago, Neuby said:

I was hoping the same. Lots of depth on the market still to grab another cheap reliever, outfielder, bench bat ect for just $$$. At this point you know you're  going over with trade deadline needs anyway.

 

 

 

I think the current roster is complete. If they do anything at this point, it would be a trade deadline move, and not a big one unless they felt comfortable enough to blow past the LT at that point. 

[Jason Ross]

Just to add; the Cubs do have two open 40-man spots, but I don't expect them to be filled. By leaving them open the Cubs will have flexibility in keeping whatever MiLB-deal/camp invite arms they want without sacrificing something else. 

While I wouldn't expect the Cubs will create a Brad Keller every year, the team will want the flexibility if Colin Snider or one of the myriad of those types break out in camp. 

Ultimately, I think the off-season is basically done. There will probably be some consistent rumors of a Hoerner or Shaw trade that persist but I doubt those happen; the landing strip of what would need to come back feels so thin that I cannot envision a trade that works well. 

[CubinNY]

13 hours ago, Victor Reichman said:

I like Bregman, fine player, but not for 5 yrs and $35/yr. Shaw is a better fielder, came in 2nd to Hayes, far faster, hit 10 HR in 2nd half, and is inexpensive. We had a Gold Glove IF last year. IMO, they offered Nico an extension which he refused and he wants to play for SF or LA. Clearly, best position player on team last year. Seems they might trade either him or Swanson. They must keep Shaw.

The kind of posts drive me horsefeathers nuts. If you like the player, who cares how much they are paying him? Maybe he balls out for three years and helps the Cubs win a WS then he sucks ass for two. The sucking doesn't negate the great. Too many people think they are too smart and are paying the contracts. 

Edited January 12 by CubinNY

[Rcal10]

17 minutes ago, CubinNY said:

The kind of posts drive me horsefeathers nuts. If you like the play, who cares how much they are paying him? Maybe he balls out for three years and helps the Cubs win a WS then he sucks ass for two. The sucking doesn't negate the great. Too many people are think they are too smart and are paying the contracts. 

I agree. We should all be happy the Cubs finally targeted a guy and got him. For once, let other fan bases suggest how dumb the Cubs were and praise their FO for not signing such a crazy contract. Many of us have done that for years. I think this is a great move as far as Bregman, the ballplayer. But even better sign that the Cubs can actually swim in the deep waters of free agency. 

[Layoutman]

On 1/11/2026 at 8:31 AM, Bertz said:

For the bench I suspect it starts off with fairly strict platoons.  Alcantara backs PCA in CF, Austin backs Busch at 1B, and Shaw backs Mo at DH (via Bregman, Shaw obviously in the field).  

Except for Austin all of these guys are hopefully here for the long term, so I think you can let guys organically grow into more time.  Happ's not a liability against lefties but certainly isn't an asset, so I think there's some playing time to find there.  I think there's some opportunity to get Mo a little time behind the plate too.  And of course injuries will occur.

Jonny Long has a MLB ready bat and little to prove in Des Moines. After being promoted at every level his numbers improved instead of regressed. It would be a soft introduction into MLB by filling Austin's 1B/DH role. When they call him up, I'd wager it's for the duration.

Side note: Jonny will be missed by the greater Des Moines Little league communities. He held several hitting clinics during his limited downtime.  He would stay late to sign both at the park and the clinics. Quality human being and a wonderful role model.

[Bertz]

11 minutes ago, Layoutman said:

Jonny Long has a MLB ready bat and little to prove in Des Moines. After being promoted at every level his numbers improved instead of regressed. It would be a soft introduction into MLB by filling Austin's 1B/DH role. When they call him up, I'd wager it's for the duration.

Side note: Jonny will be missed by the greater Des Moines Little league communities. He held several hitting clinics during his limited downtime.  He would stay late to sign both at the park and the clinics. Quality human being and a wonderful role model.

Yeah Long is great, on a lesser team he'd have been up last July or August.  Good to know he's a good guy too. 

I think purely by virtue of roster management (he's not on the 40 man, and he's been at Iowa for "only" a year as compared to Mo and Alcantara) he's probably gonna spend a lot of 2026 at Iowa and come up to MLB for short stints.

I view him as the guy who comes up whenever there's an injury to a corner bat.  One thing I'd like to see too is a lot more time at positions besides 1B.  As you said the bat is ready, so let's make it so that he's a potential fill in for any of Happ/Suzuki/Mo/Busch.  And if he's even decent as an OF he's got a pretty easy line to a starting spot heading into 2027.

[Bertz]

Oh another fun thing I found about Jonny Long.  Via Steamer, the Cubs have 7 guys who project to be above average hitters against both righties and lefties:

Bregman

Suzuki

Happ

Hoerner 

Shaw

Austin

Long

The bar is higher for a RHH 1B, but it's pretty easy to imagine Long ultimately being the best hitter out of last year's Iowa quartet.

[Rob]

16 hours ago, chopsx9 said:

I don't really get the $ to WAR thing.  Are we saying Nico is going to get between $30-$50 million a year wherever he signs?  Someone educate me.

When he enters the market, he's going to be 29 years old. And he's clearly a guy who has already made the best of his potential -- nobody's paying a premium hoping to unlock anything extra. The question then becomes what his production is likely to be worth.

He's coming off a stretch of 4.3, 4.5, 3.9, and 4.8 win seasons. To make the math easy, let's say teams think he's a 4.0 win player going into the 2027 season. He's approaching the age where production declines, and the typical rule of thumb is to subtract about 0.5 fWAR per season. So we'd expect his production to look something like this [albeit probably not this consistent].

• 2027 - 4.0
• 2028 - 3.5
• 2029 - 3.0
• 2030 - 2.5
• 2031 - 2.0
• 2032 - 1.5
• 2033 - 1.0
• 2034 - 0.5
• 2035 - replacement level

I'm not sure what the current $/fWAR figure is. But for math's sake, let's call it $10 mil per fWAR. He's producing 20 fWAR in that time. So in theory at least, you could be okay signing him through 2035 for a total of $200 mil. 

All of that is full of caveats, though. Much of Hoerner's value comes from two things that public data is a bit behind the curve on. First is his defense. We're usually the publicly available datasets that say he's awesome, and he passes the eye test. But teams have proprietary tracking data (ball, player, weather, etc...) which gives them a better picture of what his precise defensive value is. There could be a gap. Potentially even a large one.

The other place from which Hoerner extracts a fair amount of his value is the positional adjustment. 2B is a tough position, and fWAR gives him extra credit for playing a tough position on the defensive spectrum. But there's been a lot of noise lately that the positional adjustments being used in these calculations are based on pretty old data, and that it's probably time to adjust the adjustments, so to speak. The expectation is that the gap between tough positions and easy positions has shrunk, and the adjustment is too high. Again, I am sure that teams are using their own proprietary formulae for this sort of thing -- so they may value him a bit less due to that.

All that said -- that's about what Hoerner should be paid. Not about what he will be paid. He's the classic type of guy that causes a disconnect between people who write the checks and those who look at the stats. An average hitter without much power whose sole claim to superstardom is a slick glove at a position other than SS or CF. Teams will be worried that one leg/back injury is going to tank his defense and he doesn't have other standout skills to fall back on. So I anticipate him getting paid significantly less than what he's probably worth. And whoever gets him will likely be happy with the outcome. 

All that to say, I'd guess if he keeps up the production during his walk year he's probably looking at something like 5-6 years and maybe $100 million or $125 million.

[Cubs420psd]

On 1/10/2026 at 9:46 PM, Irrelevant Dude said:

Can he play SS and be a complete utility IF?

I dont see why not. That's what im hoping the plan is.

 

Or give him an outfield glove as well and make him our modern day Zobrist.

[Outshined_One]

12 minutes ago, Rob said:

All that said -- that's about what Hoerner should be paid. Not about what he will be paid. He's the classic type of guy that causes a disconnect between people who write the checks and those who look at the stats.

The other unknown with Hoerner is how teams view his potential as a SS.  He's been a 2B because he's playing next to one of the best defensive shortstops in the game.  If a team thinks Nico can play SS well for the next 3-5 years, that could easily put a thumb on the scale in his favor for certain teams.

[KCCub]

3 minutes ago, Outshined_One said:

The other unknown with Hoerner is how teams view his potential as a SS.  He's been a 2B because he's playing next to one of the best defensive shortstops in the game.  If a team thinks Nico can play SS well for the next 3-5 years, that could easily put a thumb on the scale in his favor for certain teams.

Yea I think the Yankees would love to stick him at SS and feel they will be in on him hard in FA. They've liked him for so long. 

[Bertz]

39 minutes ago, Rob said:

When he enters the market, he's going to be 29 years old. And he's clearly a guy who has already made the best of his potential -- nobody's paying a premium hoping to unlock anything extra. The question then becomes what his production is likely to be worth.

He's coming off a stretch of 4.3, 4.5, 3.9, and 4.8 win seasons. To make the math easy, let's say teams think he's a 4.0 win player going into the 2027 season. He's approaching the age where production declines, and the typical rule of thumb is to subtract about 0.5 fWAR per season. So we'd expect his production to look something like this [albeit probably not this consistent].

• 2027 - 4.0
• 2028 - 3.5
• 2029 - 3.0
• 2030 - 2.5
• 2031 - 2.0
• 2032 - 1.5
• 2033 - 1.0
• 2034 - 0.5
• 2035 - replacement level

I'm not sure what the current $/fWAR figure is. But for math's sake, let's call it $10 mil per fWAR. He's producing 20 fWAR in that time. So in theory at least, you could be okay signing him through 2035 for a total of $200 mil. 

All of that is full of caveats, though. Much of Hoerner's value comes from two things that public data is a bit behind the curve on. First is his defense. We're usually the publicly available datasets that say he's awesome, and he passes the eye test. But teams have proprietary tracking data (ball, player, weather, etc...) which gives them a better picture of what his precise defensive value is. There could be a gap. Potentially even a large one.

The other place from which Hoerner extracts a fair amount of his value is the positional adjustment. 2B is a tough position, and fWAR gives him extra credit for playing a tough position on the defensive spectrum. But there's been a lot of noise lately that the positional adjustments being used in these calculations are based on pretty old data, and that it's probably time to adjust the adjustments, so to speak. The expectation is that the gap between tough positions and easy positions has shrunk, and the adjustment is too high. Again, I am sure that teams are using their own proprietary formulae for this sort of thing -- so they may value him a bit less due to that.

All that said -- that's about what Hoerner should be paid. Not about what he will be paid. He's the classic type of guy that causes a disconnect between people who write the checks and those who look at the stats. An average hitter without much power whose sole claim to superstardom is a slick glove at a position other than SS or CF. Teams will be worried that one leg/back injury is going to tank his defense and he doesn't have other standout skills to fall back on. So I anticipate him getting paid significantly less than what he's probably worth. And whoever gets him will likely be happy with the outcome. 

All that to say, I'd guess if he keeps up the production during his walk year he's probably looking at something like 5-6 years and maybe $100 million or $125 million.

How Nico can be expected to age is so fascinating to me.  On the one hand I believe damn near every bit of research says that athletic, well rounded, strong contact bats tend to be the best bets for aging.  Strikeouts and dongs being "old player skills" is one of those things where conventional wisdom ended up being backed up by the math.

On the other hand Nico's basically just an average hitter even right now in his prime.  It's easy to imagine for instance Alex Bregman's bat aging gracefully selling out for power a bit more and trading some K-rate for walks and power.  With like 30 grade power is that an avenue even open to a guy like Nico?  I suspect not.  I suspect that Nico will be a useful player well into his 30's, but will pretty abruptly stop being a guy worth big money to as soon as he loses a step.

I'm generally against extending Hoerner, particularly post Bregman.  In fact reconciling the Nico situation is a big part of why I got on board with Bregman after being cold on the idea in October/November.  I hope Nico gets overpaid by a west coast team like the Giants next winter and gets to hang out close to home.

[Cubs420psd]

Unless Tom is on Jed's nuts to get under the luxury tax i see no reason to trade Nico.

If you don't want to give them a big extension after this year, fine, you have Shaw who can be the heir apparent while he's the super utily guy this year. But I think he fits really well on this team and at his current price is still a bargain.

 

 

 

[Hot Sauce]

On 1/11/2026 at 7:38 AM, CubUgly said:

Exactly, I don't think very many of us at all believed they actually would including me.  Bit of an overpay?  Maybe, but sometimes you have to do that to get meaningful piece to play a title.

I think Bregman makes us better, makes our bench better by allowing Shaw to play a utility role, already a significant upgrade from any of the bench pieces from last year.

Jed obviously likes him, he offered him a deal last year that he had to ask Tom permission to give last year and didn't get him.  Their projections indicate he'll age well.  I certainly hope so.  But I'm excited our front office stepped up. 

The Cubs have the ability to overpay where a good 2/3 of the league doesn't. This is absolutely how they should approach free agency and the players they covet. It's nice to see them act like the big market team that they are.

[Bertz]

https://www.reddit.com/r/baseball/s/0odU2gzv51

Am I crazy or does this imply that the Cubs had their offer out to Bregman for several weeks?