Winter Doldrums Thread

[Outshined_One]

24 minutes ago, Jason Ross said:

The White Sox are in a great place to take the gamble though. They can't really lose. 

Plus it's an power hitter friendly environment on a team with zero expectations. It's no lose for Murakami.

[WhyCantWeWin]

I like that deal for the Sox, could net them another chunk of prospects if he pans out. 

[Jason Ross]

 

[Bertz]

6 minutes ago, Jason Ross said:

 

In the immediate aftermath of adding Gray the talk was that the Sox were wanting to add two bats and were probably done with substantive arms.  Then as we got further out they started getting tied to King, etc 

So I guess what I'm getting at is my guess is this has implications more in the arm direction than the Bregman direction.  Still ultimately good for us.

[Jason Ross]

5 minutes ago, Bertz said:

In the immediate aftermath of adding Gray the talk was that the Sox were wanting to add two bats and were probably done with substantive arms.  Then as we got further out they started getting tied to King, etc 

So I guess what I'm getting at is my guess is this has implications more in the arm direction than the Bregman direction.  Still ultimately good for us.

If this is the case, it would clear out another team who may be in on Imai. There was a little smoke, though not a lot, about Imai/Boston, but if they're done with pitching...

[Tryptamine]

3 minutes ago, Bertz said:

In the immediate aftermath of adding Gray the talk was that the Sox were wanting to add two bats and were probably done with substantive arms.  Then as we got further out they started getting tied to King, etc 

So I guess what I'm getting at is my guess is this has implications more in the arm direction than the Bregman direction.  Still ultimately good for us.

My understanding was they were only considering King because he was a Boston fan and might give them a sweetheart deal. 

[Neuby]

Wilson is going to be a monster in Boston.  Cardinals sending $8M in cash to Red Sox.

[chibears55]

Id expect the next two days could be pretty busy with some players and teams wanting to get deals/trades done before the holidays.

I hope Hoyer has something good cooking  

[JunkyardWalrus]

9 minutes ago, chibears55 said:

Id expect the next two days could be pretty busy with some players and teams wanting to get deals/trades done before the holidays.

I hope Hoyer has something good cooking  

Hope you got your squeegie!

[Hortonhearsawho]

I wonder if they count this as their big bat and they pivot away from Bregman now. 

[Bertz]

52 minutes ago, Tryptamine said:

My understanding was they were only considering King because he was a Boston fan and might give them a sweetheart deal. 

That would make a lot of sense.  I saw them linked to pitching but not from any Boston-specific folks.  Was likely "well if they're on King..." type thinking.

But yeah I believe they wanted a pure bat and also someone who could play 2B/3B, with Mayer getting the other.  So my guess is they end up with Bichette or one of the FA 3B.  I'd think after making yet another prospect trade they're a little disinclined to go back to the well again for Marte?

[Stratos]

3 hours ago, Bertz said:

In the immediate aftermath of adding Gray the talk was that the Sox were wanting to add two bats and were probably done with substantive arms.  Then as we got further out they started getting tied to King, etc 

So I guess what I'm getting at is my guess is this has implications more in the arm direction than the Bregman direction.  Still ultimately good for us.

I checked Sportac. Boston is at 235m luxury tax payroll after this trade. Last year their payroll finished around 249m.  Though they also unloaded Devers mid-season.  Not sure what their opening day payroll was last year. Contreras is a 18m hit.

It's possible they're out on any big FA now, but who knows what their payroll limit is. Very likely out on getting both a big FA bat and SP though.  This is good news for the Cubs either way as you said.

[thawv]

19 hours ago, Rcal10 said:

Maybe a stupid question, but how is that measured? If he takes a strike on a ball at 95 mph is he 0-1 against that speed. How about a swing and a miss or a foul ball? Or do they only determine his average on the final pitch of the AB? Or with 2 strikes? 

I want to say it's the last pitch of the at bat.  Either a strikeout or the ball is put in play.  You can see 1000 FB's, swing at 400 of them, put the ball in play 200 times, and get 50 hits and that would make your average .250 against FB's. 

[thawv]

18 hours ago, Neuby said:

 

https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/6907283/2025/12/20/what-im-hearing-about-the-blue-jays-interest-in-bregman-plus-more-mlb-offseason-notes/

The Rays got a haul. If the Cubs aren't moving Mo or Cassie in a deal for Gore who's the headliner?

They got 4 guys, and none were top 100 players.  To me it seems like a quantity trade.  For a guy like Baz, I would expect a couple of top 100 players in return.  

[thawv]

15 hours ago, chibears55 said:

Im trying to figure out how this guy had an OPS over 1.000 if he cant hit a fastball over 93 mph.  Do they not have many pitchers in the league that can throw a fastball over 93?

I'd love to see a breakdown of this

The average FB in Japan is 91, so no, he's not seeing a ton of high velocity pitches. 

[Bertz]

FWIW I was thinking about the Pros/Cons for the four SPs that seem like the most likely options right now:

Imai

Pros - It's good stuff by any measure but some of the pitch design guys think it might be special. He was a monster in NPB this year, and is really young for a FA SP.  No qualifying offer attached which is big; he's the best SP available who doesn't hurt the farm (next closest is...Chris Bassitt?)

Cons - He has had command issues historically and '25 was his first really good year, combine those two and he has a fairly pedestrian projection. The fact that there's not a Yamamoto style bidding war happening right now shows the pitch design argument isn't a slam dunk

Gallen

Pros - Prior to '25 Gallen was a model of consistency and durability. The stuff/velocity is still roughly where it was when he was an ace, so fundamentally this is the same guy who looked like he was in line for Jon Lester money this time last year.  Trueblood laid out a fairly compelling case that his issue was that his fastball movement just needs to be tightened up

Cons - Even if you feel comfortable handwaving away 2025, this is not the bat missing monster we're all pining for.  It would very much have the feel of taking Stroman over Gausman and Ray again. For cost he's probably looking at what King got sans the options?  Add in the draft pick and he's certainly not cheap.

Gore

Pros - Absolutely premium stuff with a good record of durability on top of it. Good performance the last few years and you feel like there's more to unlock moving him to an org operating in the 21st century. Two years of cost control means you can pair him with a substantive FA bat (Bregman?)

Cons - Pretty extreme consistency issues, and you do worry to what extent he'll be priced for what he could be vs. what he is

Cabrera

Pros - Premium stuff and in 2025 started working towards premium performance. Comes with three years of cost control 

Cons - Major control issues prior to '25. Durability concerns as well, two elbow injuries in the second half of the year raises your eyebrow even if they were seemingly mild.  And he wasn't exactly Tom Glavine prior to '25

---

Overall I'm probably in line with most in that Imai is my favorite and Gallen is my least.  That said if I had a better sense for what else (if anything) the team plans to do in conjunction with a FA SP I could be convinced to get on board with any of them.  

[Tryptamine]

Holy hell this is the most boring offseason in a year in which they expect to contend. Still time left, but as of right now they probably aren't as good of a team as they were entering the season last year. 

[Jason Ross]

That's your Reese McGuire for the 2026 season. 

 

[Bertz]

A chill just went down Paul Skenes' spine

But seriously, good add.  I assume gets a 40 man spot?

[Illiterate Scholar]

I wouldn't think so, at least not right away. If he's on the 40 man, he has to be in the majors given his service time unless I'm missing something. 

[chibears55]

29 minutes ago, Jason Ross said:

That's your Reese McGuire for the 2026 season. 

 

Hoyer making splashes this offseason with depth signings. 

That should put them over 200 million 

[cl smooth]

38 minutes ago, Jason Ross said:

That's your Reese McGuire for the 2026 season. 

 

second tour of duty with the cubs?

[thawv]

29 minutes ago, Bertz said:

A chill just went down Paul Skenes' spine

But seriously, good add.  I assume gets a 40 man spot?

I assumed that he was out of options.  Maybe he's not? 

[Jason Ross]

20 minutes ago, Illiterate Scholar said:

I wouldn't think so, at least not right away. If he's on the 40 man, he has to be in the majors given his service time unless I'm missing something. 

It's a split level deal so he can accept going to Iowa. I would bet he's on the 40 man so that the Cubs don't have to kick someone off if they need him. They have a ton of space on the 40, too. 

[Outshined_One]

That's four catchers vying for spots on the ML roster between Kelly, Amaya, Ballesteros, and Bethancourt.

I mean, sure, depth is nice, especially if Bethancourt is willing to hold down the fort in Iowa, but that's a bit of an odd move.