Winter Doldrums Thread

[Tryptamine]

4 hours ago, thawv said:

If 3/75 is too much for Jed, we won't get any top FA's.  Hopefully it wasn't the price. 

I don't think the Cubs got offered that price. I think King was disappointed in his market and took the deal he did because of opt outs after year 1 and year 2 so he could try and establish his health and get that 4 or 5 year deal he wanted. I don't believe the Cubs would have given him an opt out after 2026, not with the half dozen other players headed to FA after this season.

[Rcal10]

1 hour ago, Bull said:

I think he's a solid 2. He fails to meet innings pitched requirements for leaders boards by 2.1 innings. (159.2, 162). If you drop the filter to 100 IP (so as to avoid manipulation to include *just* him) he is 33rd in baseball in fWAR (2.9). (I could have gotten him as high as 27th in baseball by setting the innings limit to 150)

Above Rea, Shota, Taillon, Horton and not far behind Boyd (22nd at 3.4). So in baseball, a SOLID #2. On this team, a depending on performance, a 2 or 3. (not including Steele).

But this team does not lack solid pitchers. Heck even Ben Brown was top 100 fWAR last year, above Shota.  This team lacks an ACE. Maybe Horton becomes that. Maybe Steele comes back better than ever, but I'd rather shoot for the moon with Imai than another solid, get-us-to-the-playoffs-only-to-bow-out-in-round-2 guy.

The floor is high. now raise the ceiling.

 

 

I think the idea of Gore is to raise the ceiling. Again, I understand people having issue with Gore. I’m not totally sold on him either. But if the Cubs traded for him it would be because they believe there is more there. And he could be a #1. 

[thawv]

1 hour ago, Bull said:

I think he's a solid 2. He fails to meet innings pitched requirements for leaders boards by 2.1 innings. (159.2, 162). If you drop the filter to 100 IP (so as to avoid manipulation to include *just* him) he is 33rd in baseball in fWAR (2.9). (I could have gotten him as high as 27th in baseball by setting the innings limit to 150)

Above Rea, Shota, Taillon, Horton and not far behind Boyd (22nd at 3.4). So in baseball, a SOLID #2. On this team, a depending on performance, a 2 or 3. (not including Steele).

But this team does not lack solid pitchers. Heck even Ben Brown was top 100 fWAR last year, above Shota.  This team lacks an ACE. Maybe Horton becomes that. Maybe Steele comes back better than ever, but I'd rather shoot for the moon with Imai than another solid, get-us-to-the-playoffs-only-to-bow-out-in-round-2 guy.

The floor is high. now raise the ceiling.

 

 

His ERA, xERA, FIP and Savant page do not look like anything that resembles a #2.  I should lower my expectations, I guess. 

Edited December 20, 2025 by thawv

[thawv]

1 hour ago, Tryptamine said:

I don't think the Cubs got offered that price. I think King was disappointed in his market and took the deal he did because of opt outs after year 1 and year 2 so he could try and establish his health and get that 4 or 5 year deal he wanted. I don't believe the Cubs would have given him an opt out after 2026, not with the half dozen other players headed to FA after this season.

I think you're right. 

[Hot Sauce]

1 hour ago, Tryptamine said:

I don't think the Cubs got offered that price. I think King was disappointed in his market and took the deal he did because of opt outs after year 1 and year 2 so he could try and establish his health and get that 4 or 5 year deal he wanted. I don't believe the Cubs would have given him an opt out after 2026, not with the half dozen other players headed to FA after this season.

Opt out clauses form the core of Jed's expertise.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

2 hours ago, Tryptamine said:

I don't think the Cubs got offered that price. I think King was disappointed in his market and took the deal he did because of opt outs after year 1 and year 2 so he could try and establish his health and get that 4 or 5 year deal he wanted. I don't believe the Cubs would have given him an opt out after 2026, not with the half dozen other players headed to FA after this season.

Also paying the QO price for King to potentially lose him after a year dulls the benefit further.

[Jason Ross]

13 minutes ago, thawv said:

His ERA, xERA, FIP and Savant page do not look like anything that resembles a #2.  I should lower my expectations, I guess. 

Gore isn't a "number 2" today; it's about getting someone with his swing-and-miss ability away from Washington, who has one of the worst pitching infrastructures in baseball right now. They are pretty terrible as well from a player developmental stand point. 

Teams don't want what MacKenzie Gore has been, they want what they think they can fix. While not the same fix, all it took was getting Kyle Finnegan out of DC and into Detroit for him to fix a lot of his issues by simply changing his pitch mix (something many in baseball circles online had been screaming about).

[Bertz]

Gore is 23rd in pitching fWAR the last two years so while I agree that there's an amount of paying for future production rather than past we don't need to pretend like he's currently chopped liver.

[Jason Ross]

4 minutes ago, Bertz said:

Gore is 23rd in pitching fWAR the last two years so while I agree that there's an amount of paying for future production rather than past we don't need to pretend like he's currently chopped liver.

Yeah, this is a good reminder as well. I probably didn't give him enough credit in my post for already being pretty good. 

[Derwood]

Also, assigning #2 or #3 to anyone is a futile exercise. Just give me five healthy, reliable dudes

[Hot Sauce]

Just now, Derwood said:

Also, assigning #2 or #3 to anyone is a futile exercise. Just give me five healthy, reliable dudes

This is one of my personal pet peeves, along with any use of the term "ace."

[Guest]

53 minutes ago, Jason Ross said:

Yeah, this is a good reminder as well. I probably didn't give him enough credit in my post for already being pretty good. 

Yep. The one thing that I think we can all agree on here is that the Cubs do have a lot of talent in shaping players and maximizing their efficiency--often it's an undiagnosable cure until the Cubs fix it and minimize inefficiencies (they tend to do this better with older players). This is one thing that Zombro can do very well with pitchers, the other coaches can do with the other positions, and something that we can expect to happen with Gore. So the past stats don't tell the entire story.

Edited December 20, 2025 by The Cubs Dude

[WhyCantWeWin]

28 minutes ago, Derwood said:

Also, assigning #2 or #3 to anyone is a futile exercise. Just give me five healthy, reliable dudes

Send me dudes

[thawv]

1 hour ago, Jason Ross said:

Gore isn't a "number 2" today; it's about getting someone with his swing-and-miss ability away from Washington, who has one of the worst pitching infrastructures in baseball right now. They are pretty terrible as well from a player developmental stand point. 

Teams don't want what MacKenzie Gore has been, they want what they think they can fix. While not the same fix, all it took was getting Kyle Finnegan out of DC and into Detroit for him to fix a lot of his issues by simply changing his pitch mix (something many in baseball circles online had been screaming about).

This I can get on board with.  Today, I see him as a 3 or a 4.  I'll trust that you think that the Cubs can get him to that next level, as Washington is terrible at doing that. 

[thawv]

44 minutes ago, Derwood said:

Also, assigning #2 or #3 to anyone is a futile exercise. Just give me five healthy, reliable dudes

But people understand what's meant by the term.  It's not etched in stone, but clearly it's a quick snapshot of a guys ability.  But of course you clearly know this already being a baseball guy

Edited December 20, 2025 by thawv

[Rcal10]

40 minutes ago, Derwood said:

Also, assigning #2 or #3 to anyone is a futile exercise. Just give me five healthy, reliable dudes

Yes, once the season starts just have guys who can go out every 5th game. But there is a reason to call someone a #2 or #4. Just a way of suggesting how good you think a player is. If the Cubs are talking to the pirates about Skenes they are looking for a #1 and an ace. If they are talking to them about Keller they are looking for a MOR starter or a possible #3. Used as just a guide to determine a guys talent,’it has a place. Less meaningful during the season. 

[Derwood]

10 minutes ago, Rcal10 said:

Yes, once the season starts just have guys who can go out every 5th game. But there is a reason to call someone a #2 or #4. Just a way of suggesting how good you think a player is. If the Cubs are talking to the pirates about Skenes they are looking for a #1 and an ace. If they are talking to them about Keller they are looking for a MOR starter or a possible #3. Used as just a guide to determine a guys talent,’it has a place. Less meaningful during the season. 

My point is that quibbling over whether Gore is a 2 or a 3 isn’t worth the effort. He’s not an ace and he’s not fodder. 

[chibears55]

...

Edited December 20, 2025 by chibears55

[Rcal10]

5 minutes ago, Derwood said:

My point is that quibbling over whether Gore is a 2 or a 3 isn’t worth the effort. He’s not an ace and he’s not fodder. 

But it isn’t pointless really. If I think he is a #2 and someone else says they think he is a #3, you and everyone else here understands I think he is better than the other guy does. Used that way, it has a purpose. 

[Stratos]

Gore is a very solid pitcher.  But his walk rate and groundball rate are consistently below average and those things aren't easy to improve and the Cubs shouldn't assume they can improve them, so regardless of his quality stuff he's going to have a certain ceiling.

[thawv]

2 hours ago, Rcal10 said:

Yes, once the season starts just have guys who can go out every 5th game. But there is a reason to call someone a #2 or #4. Just a way of suggesting how good you think a player is. If the Cubs are talking to the pirates about Skenes they are looking for a #1 and an ace. If they are talking to them about Keller they are looking for a MOR starter or a possible #3. Used as just a guide to determine a guys talent,’it has a place. Less meaningful during the season. 

This is exactly the reason why numbering a pitcher in a rotation has meaning.  Thank you for making it clearer. 

Edited December 20, 2025 by thawv

[BKHoo]

Gore has the pedigree and the stuff. As people have said the Nats have sucked at developing pitchers and their defense also sucked. He could be so much better here - I hope we can get him and at a price that does not break the bank. 

[Tryptamine]

22 minutes ago, BKHoo said:

Gore has the pedigree and the stuff. As people have said the Nats have sucked at developing pitchers and their defense also sucked. He could be so much better here - I hope we can get him and at a price that does not break the bank. 

After what Baltimore gave up for Baz, I think any notion of getting Gore for a reasonable price is gone.  My guess is it takes 3 top 10, 2 of them top 5 in the farm. One of them almost certainly Wiggins. It's going to hurt, a lot.

[thawv]

1 hour ago, Tryptamine said:

After what Baltimore gave up for Baz, I think any notion of getting Gore for a reasonable price is gone.  My guess is it takes 3 top 10, 2 of them top 5 in the farm. One of them almost certainly Wiggins. It's going to hurt, a lot.

I don't know who you use as your go to prospect page, but Fangraphs has the 4 guys traded from Baltimore's organization as their #11, #17, #20, #27.  I know that Pipeline has their organizational rankings higher, but Pipeline gives a guy a 40 tool grade if he can tie his shoes.  FG is much more conservative and pragmatic.  To me this looks like more of a quantity trade.  Of course they may all be stars!  But right now, I'm going to side with FG.  

Edited December 20, 2025 by thawv

[Rcal10]

7 minutes ago, thawv said:

I don't know who you use as your go to prospect page, but Fangraphs has the 4 guys traded from Baltimore's organization as their #11, #17, #20, #27.  I know that Pipeline has their organizational rankings higher, but Pipeline gives a guy a 40 tool grade if he can tie his shoes.  FG is much more conservative and pragmatic.  To me this looks like more of a quantity trade.  Of course they may all be stars!  But right, I'm going to side with FG.  

I agree. Plus Baz comes with one additional year of control. He also has top prospect pedigree behind him, like Gore. I wouldn’t part with Shaw, Horton or Wiggins and only 1 of Cassie or Ballesteros for Gore Then add either Brown, Assad or Wicks and maybe a younger lower level prospect or 2 and that is it. If that isn’t enough move on to someone else. I would make the same offer for Cabrera, who comes with an extra year of control, or Ryan. There are probably a few other options as well. But the package above would be the highest I would go for anyone they can realistically get.