Winter Doldrums Thread

[Cuzi]

6 minutes ago, JunkyardWalrus said:

When they had Tucker. 

They can still have him. They dont want him.

[thawv]

2 hours ago, Dfan25 said:

None of those players are everyday guys , that’s why I listed them . They will need to find a backup 3B . They don’t have anybody on the roster that can do it .

 

To me the best option is to sign Bregman and have Shaw the utility infielder. 

[JunkyardWalrus]

4 minutes ago, Cuzi said:

They can still have him. They dont want him.

Which should cost Jed his job, but got him an extension. 

[CubinNY]

12 minutes ago, JunkyardWalrus said:

Which should cost Jed his job, but got him an extension. 

Jed was always getting an extension. He'd the Ricketts alter-ego. 

[Guest]

52 minutes ago, tartan22 said:

sometimes pessimism and frustration is justified. i also think it's stupid to complain about every single free agent who signs somewhere else, or to act like we've massively missed out on the SP/3B markets when there are plenty of options still left to sign.

but the reason i started grousing after the fairbanks signing specifically is because he was the last big-name bullpen FA left on the market, and his signing elsewhere is an affirmation that the front office is going to continue operating under the philosophy that it isn't worth it to pay the going rate for an established relief arm. i think that's bad roster-building, i think the lack of a go-to guy in the bullpen has hurt us even when we've (impressively) been able to cobble together a solid relief unit from spare parts, and i think now is a reasonable time to express your concerns about that approach to assembling a team

if it helps to mentally append a "but if they make a bunch of good moves later then i will be happy about that" to my posts, then go right ahead

I see justifications on both side; context and stats are necessary to create a well-rounded argument. Pessimism and frustration are emotional responses to what we may perceive as the lack of acting or, more specifically, the lack of Imai or Fairbanks. It is true that the Cubs spend significantly less than their means and this is a weakness that I cited. Furthermore, the Cubs' bullpen may be stagnating in the next years sans sustainability--our contracts are more short-term than MLB because of the monetary issue. If we are able to secure players like PCA, Shaw, etc. for a longer time, we would be able to maintain our explosive core and it would make more sense to obtain Imai/make some shorter bench deals.

Your second paragraph is somewhat unfair in my opinion. I think that Fairbanks did have some medical issues that made the Cubs more hesitant, and that his signing elsewhere was also because of the Cubs' monetary philosophy. The combination of both is what seems to be happening rather than it being one's fault. If he was signed and he abruptly got injured, that would effectively leave a hole in the bullpen during the season. If our philosophy is stability, it would make sense to leave Fairbanks alone. If it is spontaneity, it wouldn't have hurt. But the Cubs organization seems to emphasize stability and less expenditures, one of them somewhat justified.

I don't think that Jason is mentally appending "maybe it could happen"--it's the offseason, and there is less abruptness than the regular season. But since Imai adds a certain urgency, the Cubs' lack of action makes me uneasy. Personally, I think Imai will be returning to Japan without an offer, but to sign him would shift the AQ to the center in the way that we need.

1 hour ago, Jason Ross said:

On the same end, it's frustrating to come in here and read a full doom-boner party of everyone lamenting that the Cubs never spend money and suck. I get it, we are impatient and we are concerned that the Cubs may not do something. At the same time, I can barely say a decent thing about Jacob Webb or Collin Snider and what they can become without someone flying off the handle that they didn't sign Devon Williams as their only response. 

Here, I'll add some context; I don't hate Fairbanks. He has a fastball shape I think the Cubs could help as he has a lot of cut. He limits hard contact and probably doesn't need to strike everyone out. And there is no such thing as a bad 1 year deal. I wouldn't have minded the contract. 

I don't mean to horsefeathers on every contract someone else signs, but adding to the doom-boner pile isn't worthwhile or helpful. Me jumping in and simply agreeing with 9 other people doesn't do anything new. So someone needs to remind everyone that there is 2 months of an off-season to go, that his fastball shape has fallen off significantly two years running and there's medical red flags because it's true. And if it helps one person step off the ledge a bit then good. 

Again, we shouldn't be unilaterally pessimistic or optimistic--realism and stats are always superior in terms of predicting outcomes. Statistically, last year's offseason was uneventful until later. And the comments about Webb and Snider aren't about them only--they're about the team's context and their moves. It only advances the trend of short moves rather than ensuring team growth over consecutive periods of time--the term length is decreasing, Swanson and Suzuki are uncertain due to their AAV, and Imai is being questioned. 

The Cubs, in terms of their average, have been increasing throughout the last three years after a brief dip in '23. This trend will only increase if we are willing to spend money and secure long-term contracts, lest our roster be inherently wavering. The upward regression trend can be deceiving as well--if we want to secure it, we must continue extending contract length to stabilize, because more variables equals more extreme anomalies and, therefore, less predictability. The trend may even become a downward-sloping line as terms are ending and the Cubs are unwilling to spend. That's why for the Cubs, the imposition of a price cap is irrelevant, because they will always be below the cap with the current ownership. (The cap reflects a league average, but the Cubs' average price will permit little to no effect.)

I don't want to challenge optimism--for fans, baseball is highly emotional. But I like being more impartial and statistical, and there is no clear prediction in terms of the offseason until all data is summed up and contextualized across a broader period. As in economics, we need to diversify our portfolios. If we include Imai, who has five strong pitches with higher velocity, his acquisition will permit us to expand and not rely too heavily on a single type of pitch or velo. If we don't include Imai, this will not occur and the Fairbanks negligence will seem foolish in a broader context. On January 2, we'll know the fuller picture, but until then, one must take a realistic stance.

Back to Imai: Since the demand curve of the Cubs for starting pitchers seems to be decreasing, this could reflect a decrease in Imai's price if the demand curve shifts left for all other teams--the Yankees seem less interested, which indicates this... Then, the situation may replicate itself, as the adjustment in price reflects the lessened demand. But this involves a logical fallacy--that the same event will occur even when circumstances change; this is, an effect, conditional upon the idea that every team is a "marginal buyer." If this effect happens continuously, the Cubs may be able to secure a deal. But if constant shifts in demand do not occur and Imai's AAV stays resolute, it becomes a concern, especially since there are very few perfect examples of "marginal buyers" in the hotly contested MLB. That's why I think that the situation is plateauing--teams are generally less interested and the AAV may only go down slightly, not dramatically. All situations are hypothetical until the truth is revealed, so all we can do is guess and wait. (Also, Zombro's pitching style may also have an effect on bullpen strength, so that should be considered as well for new acquisitions.)

In the end, it's a waiting game.

 

Edited December 24, 2025 by The Cubs Dude

[Rcal10]

45 minutes ago, squally1313 said:

As for Webb or Fairbanks, why not both. Becomes a little bit of a self fulfilling prophecy when you steer away from elite relievers because you have so many bullpen spots to fill each year because everyone you signed last year was on a one year contract. Real ‘we’re all trying to find the guy who did this’ situation. 
 

agree with your last point. Just…haven’t been up at that level in quite a while. Prices have been too high, for a year now, apparently. 

I can tell you why not Webb and Fairbanks but you aren’t going to like the answer. The budget. If you sign Fairbanks you can forget about any pitcher making $10M+ being added to the rotation. This is an ownership issue not an Jed issue. He only has so much to work with. By signing Webb he still has a chance at Imai or Gallen. Maybe even add someone like Okamoto as well. If he signs Fairbanks we are looking at Moncada and another guy like Rea added to the rotation. Now if they fail on Imai, Gallen, Okamoto, Bregman or another high end pitcher I will be right with you complaining about their lack of activity. 

[JunkyardWalrus]

24 minutes ago, CubinNY said:

Jed was always getting an extension. He'd the Ricketts alter-ego. 

Fair. 

[chibears55]

39 minutes ago, Cuzi said:

Someone made a comment a couple weeks ago and said these big long term signings are more a question of timing rather than ability.

The Cubs have a core of PCA, Busch, and Shaw in their pre-arb years and it seems like they are going to give a large amount of playing time to another one as a DH with either Caissie or Ballesteros. They have one player locked into a contract that pays them nine figures. Their starting 2B, LF, and RF are in the last years of their deal. They've got 2 more years of Justin Steele and developed Cade Horton to be a really good pitcher.

If now is not the time to capitalize on these young players making pennies on the dollar and throw some long term money at really good players, then when the hell is the right time?

Exactly and they pretty much did the same with the young cost controlled core they had after 2016.

They lose Fowler and instead of adding a veteran solid bat/leadoff type hitter they turned to a rookie in Almora for a couple seasons before trading them all away.

 

[Guest]

11 minutes ago, chibears55 said:

Exactly and they pretty much did the same with the young cost controlled core they had after 2016.

They lose Fowler and instead of adding a veteran solid bat/leadoff type hitter they turned to a rookie in Almora for a couple seasons before trading them all away.

 

Well, I'd say that rookies aren't exactly bad, but in the context of the trade, it probably is. But I think it's unfair to say that the Cubs have been just doing terribly after 2016 and have been falling apart. They did increase their average ERA over the years, although it's stagnating. They did increase their average AVG in the last two years, signifying increasing potential. Ultimately, I don't think it is the players, per se--it's the money that Ricketts does not want to wield. In that case, I'd argue, the Cubs made a risky move, but they also wanted to prioritize the future and rookie malleability. But they should have balanced it with a veteran.

Now, the team is doing the opposite--signing veterans and not middle-of-the-road players who can potentially reach their maximum in a few years. As long as contracts are extended and the Cubs incorporate Imai as well as a few other middle-aged players, they have virtually secured their increase in team ERA positioning.

Edited December 24, 2025 by The Cubs Dude

[Hot Sauce]

1 hour ago, Cuzi said:

They can still have him. They dont want him.

They in this instance doesn’t include Jed. He’s on an allowance that won’t cover the cost of Tucker.

[Cuzi]

37 minutes ago, Hot Sauce said:

They in this instance doesn’t include Jed. He’s on an allowance that won’t cover the cost of Tucker.

His allowance goes up to the tune of ~$244M.

There is more than enough room to fit in a Kyle Tucker sized contract in there. 

The Texas Rangers are 3 years removed from winning the WS on a $241M payroll with deGrom counting for $38M, Seager counting for $32M, and Semien counting $25M.

The Cubs' most expensive player starts with Semien.

Edited December 24, 2025 by Cuzi

[Transmogrified Tiger]

15 minutes ago, Cuzi said:

His allowance goes up to the tune of ~$244M.

There is more than enough room to fit in a Kyle Tucker sized contract in there. 

The Texas Rangers are 3 years removed from winning the WS on a $241M payroll with deGrom counting for $38M, Seager counting for $32M, and Semien counting $25M.

The Cubs' most expensive player starts with Semien.

The Cubs have won 9 more games than the Rangers over the last 3 years, including the highest single season between them while the Rangers have the two lowest win totals in that span.

[Cuzi]

13 minutes ago, Transmogrified Tiger said:

The Cubs have won 9 more games than the Rangers over the last 3 years, including the highest single season between them while the Rangers have the two lowest win totals in that span.

And? What does that have to do with the point trying to be made that Hoyer can't afford a Kyle Tucker?

The Rangers got virtually nothing out of the first 2 years of deGrom and Corey Seager has missed about 30% of their games since '23.

Edited December 24, 2025 by Cuzi

[Backtobanks]

5 hours ago, Rcal10 said:

I can tell you why not Webb and Fairbanks but you aren’t going to like the answer. The budget. If you sign Fairbanks you can forget about any pitcher making $10M+ being added to the rotation. This is an ownership issue not an Jed issue. He only has so much to work with. By signing Webb he still has a chance at Imai or Gallen. Maybe even add someone like Okamoto as well. If he signs Fairbanks we are looking at Moncada and another guy like Rea added to the rotation. Now if they fail on Imai, Gallen, Okamoto, Bregman or another high end pitcher I will be right with you complaining about their lack of activity. 

Somehow your numbers don't quite come out right.  Jed has the money to sign Imai and maybe Okamoto, but can't sign Fairbanks ($13 million) and another $10 million pitcher?  Then later you talk about Bregman or another high-end pitcher.  Bregman will be $30 million, Imai or another high-end pitcher will probably be $25 million.  

[mk49]

Do you guys think the Cubs are going to sign Bregman for 5~6yrs, $30M AAV, which is supposed be what he's looking for?  I think it's unrealistic, unless nobody wants him, and he'll get more like 4yrs, $25M AAV.  Signing Okamoto for 3yrs, $15M AAV would be more realistic.  Or, if Imai ends up making 4yrs, $20M AAV, I think the Cubs would get him, although he's probably get a better deal.  TBH, I don't know I'm being realistic or not, but I just think the Cubs have a better chance getting Imai and/or Okamoto than Bregman.  I was excited, when I heard we might get Bregman last year.  But, after seeing Shaw this year, I'm not really into Bregman signing for that kind of contract.

Either way, the priority should be adding a good SP, then a good hitter.  Trading for Joe Ryan?  I'm all in.  I don't mind trading Ben Brown or Assad + Cassie or Alcantara + Mo (although I'll miss him) for Ryan, as long as we can keep Shaw, and Wiggins.  But, I heard they won't trade Ryan.  Who knows?

Edited December 25, 2025 by mk49

[imb]

Guys if Fairbanks signed a 1-year deal with the marlins it’s not because the cubs passed on him it’s because the cubs and 28 other teams passed on him. Those medicals must be COOKED

Edited December 25, 2025 by imb
My phone capitalized and put an apostrophe in “Medical’s” blame Steve Jobs. Ps I also had to edit my edit because I am high

[Geographyhater8888]

15 hours ago, JunkyardWalrus said:

Which should cost Jed his job, but got him an extension. 

There’s the Rangers boom or bust strategy of signing Semian, Seager and Degrom resulting in a World Series and 3 non winning seasons and there’s the Jed way, high floor and limited ceiling which is building a core of position players consisting of 6 Ian Happs and 3 Matt Shaw’s with some positional adjustments and a similar payroll. . 

You might not be a top heavy lineup which I’d think helps with run sequencing and raises your floor vs playoff caliber pitching but you’ll have no problem stringing together 10+ runs vs weak pitching staffs like the Cardinals or A’s. 

He’s one of a kind 

Edited December 25, 2025 by Geographyhater8888

[Rcal10]

9 hours ago, Backtobanks said:

Somehow your numbers don't quite come out right.  Jed has the money to sign Imai and maybe Okamoto, but can't sign Fairbanks ($13 million) and another $10 million pitcher?  Then later you talk about Bregman or another high-end pitcher.  Bregman will be $30 million, Imai or another high-end pitcher will probably be $25 million.  

I said Bregman OR a high end pitcher. Not both. I said Imai and possibly Okamoto. That would be IF Imai or Okamoto’s numbers have been greatly exaggerated, as was Shoto’s when he came over. So both Imai AND Okamoto for $35M TOTAL (or something around there). Regardless, if you added $13M for Fairbanks you are limited yourself elsewhere. 

[Geographyhater8888]

15 hours ago, Rcal10 said:

I can tell you why not Webb and Fairbanks but you aren’t going to like the answer. The budget. If you sign Fairbanks you can forget about any pitcher making $10M+ being added to the rotation. This is an ownership issue not a Jed issue. He only has so much to work with. By signing Webb he still has a chance at Imai or Gallen. Maybe even add someone like Okamoto as well. If he signs Fairbanks we are looking at Moncada and another guy like Rea added to the rotation. Now if they fail on Imai, Gallen, Okamoto, Bregman or another high end pitcher I will be right with you complaining about their lack of activity. 

Does Okamoto really move the needle enough to be excited about signing a fourth infielder/contingency plan for Nico? He’d be better than nothing but Cubs have enough “decent players”. At least Bregman brings a proven right handed slug element.

Edited December 25, 2025 by Geographyhater8888

[Rcal10]

2 minutes ago, Geographyhater8888 said:

Does Okamoto really move the needle enough to be excited about signing a fourth infielder/contingency plan for Nico? He’d be better than nothing but Cubs have enough “decent players”. At least Bregman brings that right handed slug element.

I honestly don’t see Bregman. But I agree with you, Okamoto, by himself, would not be a needle moving off season. However I like him at 3rd for 3 or 4 years better than I do signing Fairbanks for 1 year. I think the Cubs found an easier comp to Fairbanks(likely not as good, but decent) for $11M less, then they would find for Okamoto if they only had $2M to spend for that other bat. Point is, they have a budget. So they have to mix and match the best they can. Apparently Fairbanks wasn’t a priority. Most likely because money and their team payroll structure. Which was my original answer. 

[Bull]

13 hours ago, Cuzi said:

And? What does that have to do with the point trying to be made that Hoyer can't afford a Kyle Tucker?

The Rangers got virtually nothing out of the first 2 years of deGrom and Corey Seager has missed about 30% of their games since '23.

Stop making the case against large contracts. We want Jed to spend.

[Bull]

11 hours ago, imb said:

Guys if Fairbanks signed a 1-year deal with the marlins it’s not because the cubs passed on him it’s because the cubs and 28 other teams passed on him. Those medicals must be COOKED

I don't see why the board is so dismissive of this idea. It's pretty clear either: 1. the Cubs (and others) steered away from him intentionally, 2. he just prefers to lose as a tradeoff for living in Florida. 

Edited December 25, 2025 by Bull

[Geographyhater8888]

49 minutes ago, Rcal10 said:

I honestly don’t see Bregman. But I agree with you, Okamoto, by himself, would not be a needle moving off season. However I like him at 3rd for 3 or 4 years better than I do signing Fairbanks for 1 year. I think the Cubs found an easier comp to Fairbanks(likely not as good, but decent) for $11M less, then they would find for Okamoto if they only had $2M to spend for that other bat. Point is, they have a budget. So they have to mix and match the best they can. Apparently Fairbanks wasn’t a priority. Most likely because money and their team payroll structure. Which was my original answer. 

I’d be shocked by bregman too. They’d have to strike out on every free agent starter and Bregman wouldn’t be getting the years he wants from other teams for Jed to even consider making an offer. 
 

I hope the pitching lab can fix another reclamation project like Brad Keller instead of splurging on relievers. A downgrade from Keller for the same AAV he’s getting in Philly doesn’t entice me. They need quality not quantity.

Edited December 25, 2025 by Geographyhater8888

[Jason Ross]

9 minutes ago, Geographyhater8888 said:

I’d be shocked by bregman too. They’d have to strike out on every free agent starter and Bregman wouldn’t be getting the years he wants from other teams for Jed to even consider making an offer. 
 

I hope the pitching lab can fix another reclamation project like Brad Keller instead of splurging on relievers. A downgrade from Keller for the same AAV doesn’t entice me. They need quality not quantity.

Right now, the BP probably isn't much of a downgrade from where it was at the end of the last year. Palencia and Thielbar are back, where as Milner fills a Pomeranz role and Maton fills the Keller or Kittredge role. Finding a Keller or a Kittredge internally isn't a guarantee, but between Ben Brown Porter Hodge, Jacob Webb, Collin Snider, and their MiLB (Jack Neely?) the team has plenty of options who have the ability to break out and fill that spot. 

It'd be nice to know that they had that guy more than just a hope, but they also have enough pitchers who could take that leap that I'm not super worried about it either. Maybe it won't land as well as Keller did, but I suspect someone from that group will fill a reliable back end role. 

[Geographyhater8888]

1 hour ago, Jason Ross said:

Right now, the BP probably isn't much of a downgrade from where it was at the end of the last year. Palencia and Thielbar are back, where as Milner fills a Pomeranz role and Maton fills the Keller or Kittredge role. Finding a Keller or a Kittredge internally isn't a guarantee, but between Ben Brown Porter Hodge, Jacob Webb, Collin Snider, and their MiLB (Jack Neely?) the team has plenty of options who have the ability to break out and fill that spot. 

It'd be nice to know that they had that guy more than just a hope, but they also have enough pitchers who could take that leap that I'm not super worried about it either. Maybe it won't land as well as Keller did, but I suspect someone from that group will fill a reliable back end role. 

That and the fact every high end reliever is off the market. There’s enough capable bodies on the roster. Our bottom of the rotation starters stack up against any pitching staff in a best of 11 playoff series. They need someone to raise their ceiling whether it’s Imai or whoever including a trade. 
 

Edited December 25, 2025 by Geographyhater8888