Tatsuya Imai to the Astros

[We Got The Whole 9]

8 minutes ago, Tryptamine said:

They were more or less a .500ish team for 2/3s of a season too. From June 3rd through the end of the year they were 54-48

So like 2 games off a 92 win pace? 

[mk49]

1 minute ago, We Got The Whole 9 said:

So like 2 games off a 92 win pace? 

54-48 would make it 85.76 wins in 162 games.  That's better than 83 wins.😁

[BKHoo]

14 minutes ago, Tryptamine said:

They were more or less a .500ish team for 2/3s of a season too. From June 3rd through the end of the year they were 54-48

Which still is not bad.  

[thawv]

13 minutes ago, BKHoo said:

Which still is not bad.  

If the goal is to be "not bad," then I guess that's fine. 

[Derwood]

The point is that Owen Caissie isn't putting up a 4.5 fWAR this year, and there has been zero noise about the team upgrading the outfield

[Rcal10]

4 minutes ago, thawv said:

If the goal is to be "not bad," then I guess that's fine. 

The goal is to make the playoffs. Period. After that anything can happen. But 86 isn’t good enough. Need to build a team that should win 90.

Edited January 2 by Rcal10

[Randall Simon]

4 minutes ago, Rcal10 said:

The goal is to make the playoffs. Period. After that anything can happen. But 86 isn’t good enough. Need to build a team that should win 90.

I can assure you, 86 wins is right about where Ricketts would like the preseason pecota data to be. 

[thawv]

10 hours ago, Rcal10 said:

The goal is to make the playoffs. Period. After that anything can happen. But 86 isn’t good enough. Need to build a team that should win 90.

That's what I'm saying also.  If a fan has low expectations, and "not bad" is fine with him/her, then it is what is is for that fan. 

[BigbadB]

It's pretty amazing to me that they had a whole season to woo Kyle Tucker into a long term contract while he played for them, and he's more likely to play somewhere else this year while the Cubs worry about how many free agents they might end up with after 2026.

When you look at each of the contracts that are about to expire at the end of 2026 and then look at Kyle Tucker, who would you prefer to have the most of all of those names? Not only are they not going to lock up Tucker, but they are going to let most of those other guys walk next year as well. I don't have a problem with them letting most of those guys walk, but not making an honest effort for Tucker will be unforgiveable.

[Geographyhater8888]

12 hours ago, Rcal10 said:

The goal is to make the playoffs. Period. After that anything can happen. But 86 isn’t good enough. Need to build a team that should win 90.

Reds locked up the 6th wild card spot with 83 wins. They want 86-88 wins at the lowest possible cost. I need proof they have more than 86 win ambitions by spending more money. Mathew Boyd Shota and Cody bellinger, who they gave away to the Yankees to dump salary have been their 2 big free agent splashes since 23-25 in terms of AAV. 

Edited January 2 by Geographyhater8888

[CubUgly]

12 hours ago, Derwood said:

The point is that Owen Caissie isn't putting up a 4.5 fWAR this year, and there has been zero noise about the team upgrading the outfield

I'm down with this, I'm actually more worried about where the offense is going to come from, we were pretty mediocre offensively when Tuck was either hurt or mediocre himself in the second half.

[BKHoo]

I still don't understand why opt outs are so bad?  It's not a trade.  You are giving up nothing.  Wouldn't we rather have a player for one year than none?  

It's more about if this person will hit or not as a player, isn't it?

[mk49]

4 minutes ago, BKHoo said:

I still don't understand why opt outs are so bad?  It's not a trade.  You are giving up nothing.  Wouldn't we rather have a player for one year than none?  

It's more about if this person will hit or not as a player, isn't it?

Does it something to do with the posting fee?  The Astros pay the posting fee, and Imai hits FA after one season, that's not great.  I've heard they need to pay the fee for the original guaranteed contract, in this case 3yrs, even if Imai opts out after the first season.

Edited January 2 by mk49

[Jason Ross]

17 minutes ago, BKHoo said:

I still don't understand why opt outs are so bad?  It's not a trade.  You are giving up nothing.  Wouldn't we rather have a player for one year than none?  

It's more about if this person will hit or not as a player, isn't it?

Opt outs in general are not always bad. But the Cubs are probably in a situation where adding another possible roster opening to 2027 is just not feasible. Hoerner, Suzuki, Happ, Imanaga, Boyd, Taillon, Kelly, Rea, much of their BP....it's a major chunk of the roster. They could resign one or two of them, and they might have internal replacements for one or two as well, but extensions will likely raise those salaries; how much will realistically be left over to replace these guys? And with whom? Many of these players look to be the top player in the market - so how do you get better?

You have to assume if the Cubs sign a player for $20m AAV that's the best player they're getting this cycle; losing that player on top of what they already are, has to almost be a no-go right now. 

In terms of Imai's contract, I think this is especially bad for Houston. They pay the posting fee on the entire contract and what's the upside? If Imai is hurt or bad, he's stuck and if he's good he leaves. One year deals are rarely bad but Houston takes all the risk on this one. Owners shouldn't care about the money but we know they do. 

[Cuzi]

3 minutes ago, Jason Ross said:

You have to assume if the Cubs sign a player for $20m AAV

No. I dont think I will. Quickly running out of players that anyone can realistically expect this organization to target that would earn that much beyond a 1 year deal.

Edited January 2 by Cuzi

[Tryptamine]

14 minutes ago, Jason Ross said:

Opt outs in general are not always bad. But the Cubs are probably in a situation where adding another possible roster opening to 2027 is just not feasible. Hoerner, Suzuki, Happ, Imanaga, Boyd, Taillon, Kelly, Rea, much of their BP....it's a major chunk of the roster. They could resign one or two of them, and they might have internal replacements for one or two as well, but extensions will likely raise those salaries; how much will realistically be left over to replace these guys? And with whom? Many of these players look to be the top player in the market - so how do you get better?

You have to assume if the Cubs sign a player for $20m AAV that's the best player they're getting this cycle; losing that player on top of what they already are, has to almost be a no-go right now. 

In terms of Imai's contract, I think this is especially bad for Houston. They pay the posting fee on the entire contract and what's the upside? If Imai is hurt or bad, he's stuck and if he's good he leaves. One year deals are rarely bad but Houston takes all the risk on this one. Owners shouldn't care about the money but we know they do. 

You're way too optimistic about this. I think the odds of this are sub 50%. 

[Jason Ross]

17 minutes ago, Tryptamine said:

You're way too optimistic about this. I think the odds of this are sub 50%. 

When did I give any optimism? Imai got $18-21m AAV. I was discussing his contract directly and that had the Cubs signed him at that deal, you'd assume he would be the Cubs best player added and that they are not in a position to once again lose their best addition the following off-season. 

[Jason Ross]

35 minutes ago, Cuzi said:

No. I dont think I will. Quickly running out of players that anyone can realistically expect this organization to target that would earn that much beyond a 1 year deal.

Neither did I. 

I wasn't saying the Cubs will sign one or not. I wasn't assuming the Cubs sign a player of $20m, I was assuming that *if* the Cubs were to do that, he would be the best player the Cubs add this cycle. 

[Randall Simon]

12 hours ago, CubUgly said:

I'm down with this, I'm actually more worried about where the offense is going to come from, we were pretty mediocre offensively when Tuck was either hurt or mediocre himself in the second half.

This. Unless Nico is traded, (making room for another sizeable contract), it looks like the Cubs will run it back with Caisse in place of Tucker. I don't like our chances with that lineup.  

Edited January 3 by Randall Simon

[thawv]

15 hours ago, mk49 said:

Does it something to do with the posting fee?  The Astros pay the posting fee, and Imai hits FA after one season, that's not great.  I've heard they need to pay the fee for the original guaranteed contract, in this case 3yrs, even if Imai opts out after the first season.

He's going to reach 100 innings pitched, so he's getting paid 21 million.  Then they have to send 10 million over to his Japanese team.  So they are going to pay 31 million for one year.  

[Rcal10]

1 hour ago, thawv said:

He's going to reach 100 innings pitched, so he's getting paid 21 million.  Then they have to send 10 million over to his Japanese team.  So they are going to pay 31 million for one year.  

Someone asked a while back why him leaving after one year is so bad. If what you are suggesting happens and he leaves that would probably mean he had a solid season. Which in itself, is good. As has been said before, there are no bad one year deals. But what makes opting out for Imai, if he did sign with the Cubs, bad is the Cubs have so many guys leaving after this season. They don’t want to add another. And I can’t blame them for that. I know you are going to say cheap Tom Ricketts didn’t want to shell out $31M for Imai because he doesn’t care to win. But in this particular case I believe it was more an issue with him adding to guys leaving after this year. They didn’t want to add another. 

[Randall Simon]

It feels like the Cubs don't want to add any new payroll beyond 2026 until the new CBA is hammered out. 

[squally1313]

2 hours ago, Rcal10 said:

the Cubs have so many guys leaving after this season.

[UMFan83]

1 hour ago, Randall Simon said:

It feels like the Cubs don't want to add any new payroll

Fixed it for you

[Petrey10]

On 1/1/2026 at 6:44 PM, Derwood said:

The point is that Owen Caissie isn't putting up a 4.5 fWAR this year, and there has been zero noise about the team upgrading the outfield

There’s no room in the OF imo.

we can significantly upgrade 3B. It’s a way more impactful move if you add a Brennan or Bichette.

I truly feel Bichette at 3B is way more impactful/ maximum roster improvement than Tucker in OF.