Tatsuya Imai to the Astros

[Bertz]

17 minutes ago, Outshined_One said:

Okamoto is unsurprising in terms of the silence to me, considering he seems to be on a similar level as Murakami as a hitter with questions about how he'd transition to the majors.  There's been a bit of chatter about him here or there, but I got the sense he wasn't exceedingly high on any teams' wish lists.

Imai is one hell of a head-scratcher, though.  I'll grant he's not on the same level as guys like Yamamoto, Sasaki, and Daisuke Matsuzaka when they came over, and they attracted interest from the Dodgers/Yankees/Red Sox, which naturally came with more media babble and leaks.  Everything has been so weirdly quiet with Imai.  It tells me that the teams involved with bidding on him either are teams which are traditionally tight-lipped or teams which don't generally attract much media attention.

I guess you can say that's a good thing for the Cubs' chances, but normally by now we'd be hearing chatter about haggling over his rumored posting fee and dark horse teams entering the bidding process, and instead we've only seen vague social media posts and speculation about what teams are actually interested.

You can't help but speculate that there might be medical issues that have popped up when he's gone in for physicals, because not much else makes a whole lot of sense.

Two years ago some nasty post mortems came out about the "Boras 4", notably that for teams calling on Jordan Montgomery Boras wouldn't seriously engage and kept trying to upsell them to Blake Snell.  

You kind of wonder about whether these guys have been similarly burned.  Boras didn't want to move the ball with either until say two weeks ago, and now teams are winning the staring contest because the non-Boras market hasn't really moved since the meetings?  Basically he was counting on more of the Valdez/Tucker/Bichette types to be gone by now and now the deadlines are squeezing him.

From a labor perspective I support Boras but it feels like hes so big there are inevitable conflicts of interest.

[Derwood]

Everyone has been amazingly tightlipped about this whole thing. Twitter is nothing but unfounded speculation. No one knows anything

[Rcal10]

27 minutes ago, Outshined_One said:

It does!  If he went in for a physical with a team, and it turns out he'll likely need surgery in the near future, that team would have zero incentive to leak it (let him be someone else's problem) and Imai's people would clam up about it.  In that case, either the team would cut him loose or the parties would go back to the negotiating table to work around it.

But if a team got wind of issues with his medicals why wouldn’t they move on to someone else? In the case of the Cubs why wouldn’t they cross him off and go into someone else. I think it is more likely Boras is playing his players against each other and he is causing the hold up. If one team find something on his medicals I am sure others would as well.!And if a team didn’t they would give him a contract and he would have signed it already. Buyer beware! 

[Tryptamine]

We're at the point where I almost feel like a deal has already been agreed upon and all parties have been asked to keep it a secret for a new year's eve evening or new year's day reveal. If not we're down to 36 hours to negotiate, agree to and do all the necessary filing/medical stuff before the deadline.

[Bertz]

Sign that teams that were in on Imai and didnt get him are moving on?

[Jason Ross]

8 minutes ago, Bertz said:

Sign that teams that were in on Imai and didnt get him are moving on?

I would guess that this puts the Giants out. They have been saying they wouldn't be punching at the top of the SP market for weeks and getting Mahle seems to affirm that. 

[Jason Ross]

From Lance Brodzowski's Substack Email:

[Bertz]

12 minutes ago, Jason Ross said:

From Lance Brodzowski's Substack Email:

I'm not an expert at the pitch design stuff (if it were a foreign language I would say I can read it but not write it), but if I'm interpeting everything I've read properly the potential issue is with his fastball.  There's basically three countervailing factors:

1. The velocity is good, with the expectation that he sits north of 95 over here

2. The movement sucks, living in the "deadzone" without exceptional ride, cut, or carry

3. His arm angle is special, which *should* make his fastball play up at the top of the zone

So how gung-ho anyone is about him is basically a question of how they weight the above three factors, plus the bigger picture stuff like his age and his pre-2025 command/performance issues.  I get why a team would like him but be willing to draw a firm line in the sand, especially with the number of alternatives still out there.  That said I have a hard time seeing him not being worth at least 5/100ish.

[Tryptamine]

Just now, Bertz said:

I'm not an expert at the pitch design stuff (if it were a foreign language I would say I can read it but not write it), but if I'm interpeting everything I've read properly the potential issue is with his fastball.  There's basically three countervailing factors:

1. The velocity is good, with the expectation that he sits north of 95 over here

2. The movement sucks, living in the "deadzone" without exceptional ride, cut, or carry

3. His arm angle is special, which *should* make his fastball play up at the top of the zone

So how gung-ho anyone is about him is basically a question of how they weight the above three factors, plus the bigger picture stuff like his age and his pre-2025 command/performance issues.  I get why a team would like him but be willing to draw a firm line in the sand, especially with the number of alternatives still out there.  That said I have a hard time seeing him not being worth at least 5/100ish.

I mean hasn't the vibe always been, as he is he's more a mid rotation guy, but in the right pitch lab he has the stuff to be a front of the rotation guy?

[Jason Ross]

15 minutes ago, Tryptamine said:

I mean hasn't the vibe always been, as he is he's more a mid rotation guy, but in the right pitch lab he has the stuff to be a front of the rotation guy?

Not really. Imai isn't really a pitch lab guy; he has pitches and I don't think there's a ton to add. Maybe you get a cutter in there, tweak the changeup and keep it developing but he's mostly got the mix down. 

This is a question of eval. How do you evaluate the reverse slider? What will his fastball do at the MLB level from that arm slot? 

If you're a strict pitch model team you'll probably hate the slider as modeling as we know it will hate that pitch. His fastball won't be entirely overpowering at 95mph and hasn't been a big whiff pitch. 

Flip side, the fastball is close to Joe Ryan with extra velo and the slider has great whiff data on it. It's not far off from Yesevage's breaker and it was great in short sample. 

[Backtobanks]

2 hours ago, Derwood said:

Everyone has been amazingly tightlipped about this whole thing. Twitter is nothing but unfounded speculation. No one knows anything

And yet we're o page 18.😂

[Hortonhearsawho]

2 minutes ago, Backtobanks said:

And yet we're o page 18.😂

We haven't had much else to talk about this off-season. 

[CubinNY]

19 minutes ago, Backtobanks said:

And yet we're o page 18.😂

Who said we are tight lipped? That’s never been a problem here. 

[Hortonhearsawho]

Boras must really enjoy working on New Years day.

[Neuby]

With time ticking away the only leak so far was the White sox report? Hoping Katy Perry breaks the story on him coming to the northside.

[Cuzi]

42 minutes ago, Hortonhearsawho said:

Boras must really enjoy working on New Years day.

I'll be working New Years day and wont be making a few million dollars like Boras. It's just a day that is the marker for the first time you screwed up and signed something 2025.

[Rcal10]

5 minutes ago, Cuzi said:

I'll be working New Years day and wont be making a few million dollars like Boras. It's just a day that is the marker for the first time you screwed up and signed something 2025.

I agree that no one involved in this really care if they work New Year’s Day. The bigger issue is he has to be signed by 4PM central on the 2nd. So after he decides there isn’t much time to get a contract reviewed and signed and a physical completed. I would think the decision would be made today so they can do he rest with a little more time. 

[chibears55]

2 hours ago, Rcal10 said:

I agree that no one involved in this really care if they work New Year’s Day. The bigger issue is he has to be signed by 4PM central on the 2nd. So after he decides there isn’t much time to get a contract reviewed and signed and a physical completed. I would think the decision would be made today so they can do he rest with a little more time. 

Yea, it wouldn't surprise me if something leaks out overnight or in the morning if not a decision in the morning. 

[chibears55]

Grok predicts the Cubs and they're never wrong.... 😅

[Hortonhearsawho]

5 minutes ago, chibears55 said:

Grok predicts the Cubs and they're never wrong.... 😅

Damn Grok has us overpaying for Imai. 😂

[Irrelevant Dude]

I'm really shocked we haven't heard anything substantial yet.  We HAVE to know something tomorrow.  Even if it isn't an official signing announcement, there is no way we can get to the final day without anyone knowing anything.

[Tryptamine]

I'm legit going to be shocked if we don't know the answer by lunch tomorrow. 

[Hortonhearsawho]

23 minutes ago, Tryptamine said:

I'm legit going to be shocked if we don't know the answer by lunch tomorrow. 

Lunch might be a little early since the weather coast is 2 hours behind us but definitely by the afternoon I would think.

[Tangled Up in Plaid]

Any chance he just plays in Japan another year?

[mk49]

27 minutes ago, Tangled Up in Plaid said:

Any chance he just plays in Japan another year?

I don't think so, because of the CBA thingy.  I think Imai gets at least a few offers, or  I should say he already got a few, and made up his and Boras' mind.

Actually, I'm a little surprised that you guys are still awake.  I'm in CA, so I'm 2hrs behind most of you.😀  It's still 10:30PM here.

Edited January 1 by mk49