Brewers (TBD) vs Cubs (TBD): 10/9/25, 8:08pm

[Tangled Up in Plaid]

4 minutes ago, SpongeWorthy said:

no im not going to do any of that dweeb 

Jesus, lol

[I owned a Suzuki]

Managerial decisions are overrated/ players executing is underrated come playoff time.

Counsell like any player who is a FA is paid really well based on past performance. I also think Hoyer really wanted Counsell not because of who he is going to pick to start game 4(I bet Hoyer is probably part of that decision) but his ability/patience in developing young players. Plus helping create a winning environment

[Andy]

If there's one thing all baseball fans have in common, it's "we haven't scored enough runs in a while so let's put in players who all available evidence suggests are likely to produce even worse results."

I'm as annoyed Tucker is now a singles hitter as anyone but shoving the rookie Ballesteros in after not taking a meaningful AB in two weeks or whatever is a hilariously stupid idea. Putting in Willi Castro, who has been an absolute travesty from pretty much the moment he put on a Cubs uniform, is somehow an even worse one.

Edited October 10, 2025 by Andy

[Caesar]

59 minutes ago, Jason Ross said:

Freddy Peralta surrendered 21 home runs this year. He surrendered 26 the prior two years. 10.8% of fly balls hit off of Peralta were home runs. He threw 176 and 2/3rds innings. 

Matthew Boyd surrendered 19 home runs on the year. I'd provide data from the previous years, but he was hurt and didn't pitch a fully amount of innings, so it's not really relevant. 8.4% of fly balls hit off of Boyd were home runs. Rate stats are more useful, so I'll also provide last years HR/FB%, which was 8%. He threw 179 and 2/3rds innings. Even over his second half, Boyd surrendered 10% of his fly balls as home runs. 

Before we point to September, Peralta surrendered over 19% of his fly balls as home run in September. Matthew Boyd was 12%. 

So to recap: Freddy Peralta gave up more home runs, more of his fly balls left for home runs, and he threw more innings. Boyd even has been recently at keeping the ball in the park, when he was having his worst month Could you please explain how Peralta has the upper hand in keeping the ball in the park?

Because the way the wind is blowing tonight. Right hander against Suzuki, Swanson and Kelly. If wind was blowing out to right as well I would agree due to Tucker, Busch, pCA and Happ.  

[Jason Ross]

5 minutes ago, Caesar said:

Because the way the wind is blowing tonight. Right hander against Suzuki, Swanson and Kelly. If wind was blowing out to right as well I would agree due to Tucker, Busch, pCA and Happ.  

It's still in the Cubs favor. Yelich is LHH as is Turang and these are two of the top-3 HR hitters for the Brewers. Carson Kelly, who hit 17 home runs on the year, the third highest number of any Cub hitter who hits only RHH (Ian Happ also can but with Peralta we can ding him some) and sixth on the entire team would have been the Brewers fourth highest on the team and tied for 2nd for RHH.

[Caesar]

Just now, Jason Ross said:

It's still in the Cubs favor. Yelich is LHH as is Turang and these are two of the top-3 HR hitters for the Brewers. Carson Kelly, who hit 17 home runs on the year, the third highest number of any Cub hitter who hits primarily RHH (Ian Happ also can but with Peralta we can ding him some) and sixth on the entire team would have been the Brewers fourth highest on the team and tied for 2nd for RHH.

I hope you’re right. 

[abuck1220]

castro sucks at hitting, shaw sucks at hitting. even though he’s had his shaky moments, shaw is better defensively.

this isn’t that complicated. 

[Jason Ross]

Just now, Caesar said:

I hope you’re right. 

To be clear; I'm 100% right when it comes to who has the advantage on paper. The numbers are just the numbers. I don't mean that cocky, I'm actually downplaying my knowledge here. Just data.

What we hope that the advantage on the data sheet actually plays out. The Cubs probably have a slightly better die-roll on hitting home runs, but it's just a roll of the dice. 

[Outshined_One]

This thread is why I horsefeathers despise the 8 PM start time.

[JHBulls]

Welp, at least this time Duran didn’t come out to stupid entrance theatrics and then proceeded to blow the game. 

[Jason Ross]

3 minutes ago, Outshined_One said:

This thread is why I horsefeathers despise the 8 PM start time.

Gives people far too much time to let the intrusive thoughts out.

[Caesar]

The odds tell you the Cubs have 1 game the offense will score at least 7. Could this be the one? Or do they win a low scoring game tonight and bust out in game 5.

[JHBulls]

7 minutes ago, Outshined_One said:

This thread is why I horsefeathers despise the 8 PM start time.

Yes.

The postseason is so stupid. 

[JHBulls]

Always will make me giggle that Manfred has that stupid ghost runner rule, but he won’t use it in the postseason, because he knows it’s stupid. 

[Derwood]

Dodger Stadium isn't even full

[Thurman Merman]

Wind looking ok

[Caesar]

Wind is blowing the the opposite direction of what I thought.

[Caesar]

This wind direction will help Boyd. I stand corrected!

[JHBulls]

[Tryptamine]

Nice start Boyd

[soccer10k]

Walk the lead off hitter. Lovely.

GIDP please.

[Jason Ross]

Walk aside, Boyd looked sharp.

[squally1313]

A scoreless first?!?

[Tryptamine]

Just now, Jason Ross said:

Walk aside, Boyd looked sharp.

Locating far better so far.

[Derwood]

Full rest looks good on him