Cubs-Padres Game Three Thread: Sudden Death Baseball

[gflore34]

Just now, Transmogrified Tiger said:

The 2018 Brewers and 2019 Cardinals won the NLDS, but that appears to be it

Yes, I just checked, it's been a minute since an NL Central team had some PS success.

[gflore34]

2 minutes ago, UMFan83 said:

The Cardinals won one since then...don't remember the year but it was against the Braves and they scored like 10 runs in one of the early innings of Game 5 to make it a laugher

2019

[ILMindState]

This article is a good read

https://www.mlb.com/news/how-brewers-offense-makes-its-own-luck

The Cubs defense is a bad match up for the Brewers. I think they win it in 4

[Brian707]

10 minutes ago, gflore34 said:

Beating the Cubs is their best chance to move on, don't think they'll get past the Phillies or Dodgers.

If they do beat the Cubs, they better pray the Phillies and Dodgers beat up on each other extracting a toll on the series winner.  If I were a Brewers fan, I'd be really worried about facing the Dodgers.  Dodgers are not the same team they went 7-0 against in the regular season.

I just hope the Phillies beat the Dodgers- Much easier path to the WS. Both will be tough to beat though

[The_Achiever]

Cubs/Phillies NLCS would go so hard.  

Would definitely be shitting my pants every time Schwarber is at the plate.  

[chibears55]

12 hours ago, Irrelevant Dude said:

So how does this work with Cade Horton?  Let's just say hypothetically he is feeling good and able to come back for Game 5.  The Cubs can't just activate him for Game 5, can they?  Wouldn't there have to be a corresponding injury for him to replace?

They would need to be 100% certain he can pitch in game 5 and put him on the roster, otherwise the only way they can add him is if there's an injury.

[Bertz]

11 minutes ago, ILMindState said:

This article is a good read

https://www.mlb.com/news/how-brewers-offense-makes-its-own-luck

The Cubs defense is a bad match up for the Brewers. I think they win it in 4

There's a similar one from Fangraphs a few weeks ago

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/what-will-the-brewers-do-if-theres-no-meatwaste/

Basically the Brewers are patient without falling into the trap of being passive, but realistically there's a definite talent deficit there.

[Stratos]

2 hours ago, gflore34 said:

https://x.com/TalkinBaseball_/status/1973960929126879385?ref_src=twsrc^google|twcamp^serp|twgr^tweet

He traded away the farm for Mason Miller, this team was never going to win the WS, not enough in the lineup.

He definitely has gone all-in on win-now mode the last few years. 

[Stratos]

1 hour ago, Ding Dong Johnson said:

Catcher defense be damned. Put Mo behind the plate against Peralta. 

Brewers are the best running team in baseball, I wouldn't do that.

[Rcal10]

Not sure if Castro’s glove at 3rd. But if he is decent I could see him in for Shaw at least one game. And if he hits, maybe another. Shaw has looked overmatched. That said, Cubs lean to defense when deciding who plays. So not sure they go with Castro. Honestly I was a little surprised Ballesteros didn’t pinch hit for Shaw in the 7th yesterday. Man in second and 2 outs. I thought that was the time for Mo. But CC chose to stay with Shaw. Had to be because he wanted his glove the last 2 innings. 

[Rcal10]

Just now, Stratos said:

Brewers are the best running team in baseball, I wouldn't do that.

Agreed. If Mo was going to even be considered to catch it would have been against SD. Not happening against the Brewers. Besides, Kelly is playing well anyway. 

[gflore34]

Guess this is more of a philosophical question, currently pitching appears to be trending towards velocity.  Guys throwing 98+ is becoming more and more prevalent.  In time, I believe hitters are going to adjust and start to become more effective against velocity, they'll be able to get on top of those 100+ FB's.  What'll be next?  Velocity with spin?  Is that even physically possible?

[Jason Ross]

1 hour ago, gflore34 said:

Putting the ball in play is the next step, checked, didn't realize 0-7, 7 K's in the series.  I'd seriously consider going with Castro, looking at his splits he's hit well vs. the Brewers and hit really well at American Family Field.

His glove is likely too important. The Cubs are going to be in another low scoring series. Castro might be able to draw in if you expect a high-fly-ball game and a pitcher who has a strong LHH split, but I think you roll with the glove. Swanson and Hoerner showed last night how you can create your own variance (similar xBA' but the Cubs had 2x the hits because those two ate up about 4 of them). Shaw at 3b will help to create the variance defensively.

[Stratos]

2 minutes ago, Rcal10 said:

Not sure if Castro’s glove at 3rd. But if he is decent I could see him in for Shaw at least one game. And if he hits, maybe another. Shaw has looked overmatched. That said, Cubs lean to defense when deciding who plays. So not sure they go with Castro. Honestly I was a little surprised Ballesteros didn’t pinch hit for Shaw in the 7th yesterday. Man in second and 2 outs. I thought that was the time for Mo. But CC chose to stay with Shaw. Had to be because he wanted his glove the last 2 innings. 

Yeah I think he wanted the glove with the lead.  Man on 2nd and 3rd with 2 out and Shaw up vs RHP maybe you'd have seen Mo, but hard to say.

Mo is more of a 9th inning inning weapon I think.

[Jason Ross]

1 minute ago, gflore34 said:

Guess this is more of a philosophical question, currently pitching appears to be trending towards velocity.  Guys throwing 98+ is becoming more and more prevalent.  In time, I believe hitters are going to adjust and start to become more effective against velocity, they'll be able to get on top of those 100+ FB's.  What'll be next?  Velocity with spin?  Is that even physically possible?

There's always something. Teams have essentially hacked physics with the concept of seam-shifted wake. And Kittredge is a good example of what happens when you can make a guy throw a 90-mph slider. Ben Brown is throwing a curveball at 90mph and he's not alone in that.

[Derwood]

I feel like the Mason Miller approach is best. 100+ fastball vs a high-80's slider. I don't get the "everything is thrown top velocity" idea. Why is a 90mph curve more effective than a 79 mph curve? Isn't the greater difference in velocity best for keeping hitters off balance? Or is that a 90mph pitch isn't expected to move that much?

[Soul]

Not having Horton is such a damn shame.

[Tryptamine]

6 minutes ago, Derwood said:

I feel like the Mason Miller approach is best. 100+ fastball vs a high-80's slider. I don't get the "everything is thrown top velocity" idea. Why is a 90mph curve more effective than a 79 mph curve? Isn't the greater difference in velocity best for keeping hitters off balance? Or is that a 90mph pitch isn't expected to move that much?

As long as they look the same as the ball is being released I don't think it matters a terrible amount.

[Tryptamine]

5 minutes ago, Soul said:

Not having Horton is such a damn shame.

God can you imagine being able to trot Steele/Boyd/Shota/Horton out there for your play off rotation with guys like Taillon/Rea/Assad available to eat multiple innings. I really do think the 2026 rotation has the chance to be super filthy.

[Derwood]

1 minute ago, Tryptamine said:

As long as they look the same as the ball is being released I don't think it matters a terrible amount.

Miller's effectiveness is, in part, that hitters have to either sell out on 103 or sit back on 87, but can't, in real time, adjust to both. And if they can't even catch up to 103 to start with, they are toast before the at bat starts

[Derwood]

Had Horton been healthy, he would have already pitched in the SD series, so we would be getting just the one LDS start out of him regardless

[mul21]

22 minutes ago, Rcal10 said:

Not sure if Castro’s glove at 3rd. But if he is decent I could see him in for Shaw at least one game. And if he hits, maybe another. Shaw has looked overmatched. That said, Cubs lean to defense when deciding who plays. So not sure they go with Castro. Honestly I was a little surprised Ballesteros didn’t pinch hit for Shaw in the 7th yesterday. Man in second and 2 outs. I thought that was the time for Mo. But CC chose to stay with Shaw. Had to be because he wanted his glove the last 2 innings. 

The Brewers put an incredible number of balls in play compared to most teams because they don't strike out much and don't hit a lot of homers.  You also probably don't close that game out like they did last night if Shaw isn't playing 3rd.  I don't think anybody else on the roster gets that 2nd out in the 9th on the slow hopper.

[Tryptamine]

3 minutes ago, Derwood said:

Miller's effectiveness is, in part, that hitters have to either sell out on 103 or sit back on 87, but can't, in real time, adjust to both. And if they can't even catch up to 103 to start with, they are toast before the at bat starts

I was kind of referring to this. If the pitches all look the same at the release point then the batter has to guess until they can identify the spin type and by then  good luck.

 

[Soul]

28 minutes ago, Derwood said:

Had Horton been healthy, he would have already pitched in the SD series, so we would be getting just the one LDS start out of him regardless

I mean, every game is incredibly important as you know.

[Soul]

30 minutes ago, Tryptamine said:

God can you imagine being able to trot Steele/Boyd/Shota/Horton out there for your play off rotation with guys like Taillon/Rea/Assad available to eat multiple innings. I really do think the 2026 rotation has the chance to be super filthy.

It feels like the Cubs have been fighting through injury after injury vs. other teams to get where we are.  I'm not sure how it shakes out next year and beyond.  But you'd think with Steele and Horton added to the mix with what we have, 2026 looks to be solid... barring injury and that's of course key to everything..