Cubs (Rea) vs Reds (Greene): 9/18/25, 6:15pm

[Brandon Glick]

Playoff-bound with 10 games left. The 1st Wild Card is in sight.

[Bull]

Hangover lineup today?

[Ding Dong Johnson]

I wanna see someone hit a rope to the gap and pull up at 1st to throw up.

[squally1313]

Alcantara, McGuire, Ballesteros (try him at first?) for sure. Probably Castro in the middle infield somewhere. Another shot for Santana?

[bukie]

Reds are in an interesting spot in the playoff race right now, 2 game behind a free-falling Mets team that they win the tiebreaker with, and effectively tied with 2 other teams (Dbacks, Giants) that they also hold tiebreakers against.

The biggest reason they've only got a 7% chance at the playoffs from this position is that 7 of their final 10 games are against the Cubs and Brewers (plus, gaining 2 games in the standings in 10 games is still tricky). Treading water for them in this series is probably not good enough, as there are too many teams close to them to hope that .500 ball will keep them in the race. Even if the Mets continue to falter, the DBacks and Giants are right there and it only takes one of them getting hot to take control of that last wild card spot.

On the flip side, the Cubs could effectively end the Reds season this weekend.

[gflore34]

Although the WC #1 is still in play, I'm super glad the playoffs are no longer in question.  Most especially against the Reds, don't know what is about them but, they're annoying shits who I cannot stand.  I love that it's on the Reds to basically win every game and, even then, their playoff chances are slim.

Edited September 18, 2025 by gflore34

[gflore34]

17 minutes ago, bukie said:

Reds are in an interesting spot in the playoff race right now, 2 game behind a free-falling Mets team that they win the tiebreaker with, and effectively tied with 2 other teams (Dbacks, Giants) that they also hold tiebreakers against.

The biggest reason they've only got a 7% chance at the playoffs from this position is that 7 of their final 10 games are against the Cubs and Brewers (plus, gaining 2 games in the standings in 10 games is still tricky). Treading water for them in this series is probably not good enough, as there are too many teams close to them to hope that .500 ball will keep them in the race. Even if the Mets continue to falter, the DBacks and Giants are right there and it only takes one of them getting hot to take control of that last wild card spot.

On the flip side, the Cubs could effectively end the Reds season this weekend.

Haven't looked at the numbers, would a split effectively end the Reds season?

[squally1313]

7 minutes ago, gflore34 said:

Haven't looked at the numbers, would a split effectively end the Reds season?

There's too many teams involved, playing poorly, to say for sure. There are four teams within two games of that last spot (NYM, Arizona, Cincy, SF), and they are a combined 16-24 in their last 40 games. They all keep playing the way they've been playing, and a Reds split would probably put them all into a four way tie. Mets have one more against SD which is theoretically still playing for HFA/the division, then the Nats and home, then they come to Wrigley. 

As mentioned above, it's really great that the Cubs stayed above the fray because they're going to be tangentially involved in a race that could get pretty interesting here. 

[gflore34]

7 minutes ago, squally1313 said:

There's too many teams involved, playing poorly, to say for sure. There are four teams within two games of that last spot (NYM, Arizona, Cincy, SF), and they are a combined 16-24 in their last 40 games. They all keep playing the way they've been playing, and a Reds split would probably put them all into a four way tie. Mets have one more against SD which is theoretically still playing for HFA/the division, then the Nats and home, then they come to Wrigley. 

As mentioned above, it's really great that the Cubs stayed above the fray because they're going to be tangentially involved in a race that could get pretty interesting here. 

Today could be one of those games that we've seen when the Cubs were in Reds' position.  Needing every win they can get facing a team with a lesser pitcher and, in Cubs case, probably a hangover line up.  The Cubs win anyway while the Reds grind saw dust from their bats.

Edited September 18, 2025 by gflore34

[I owned a Suzuki]

4 minutes ago, gflore34 said:

Today could be one of those games that we've seen when the Cubs were in Reds' position.  Needing every win they can get facing a team with a lesser pitcher and, in Cubs case, probably a hangover line up.  The Cubs win anyway while the Reds grind saw dust from their bats.

I was thinking about doing something I hate. Bet against the Cubs today. You just talked me out of it

[gflore34]

2 minutes ago, I owned a Suzuki said:

I was thinking about doing something I hate. Bet against the Cubs today. You just talked me out of it

Good luck.  Was thinking about 2004, Cubs desperate for wins, Mark Prior goes 9, gives only 3 hits and 1 run, K's 16 and the Cubs lose in 2-1 in 12.  That horsefeathers schmoe, Austin Kearns, had some big games in that series.  Shoe is pretty much on the other foot today.

[bukie]

38 minutes ago, gflore34 said:

Haven't looked at the numbers, would a split effectively end the Reds season?

A split probably puts them on life support, under 5% for the playoffs.

Cubs taking 3 of 4 would effectively end it.

EDIT: The Mets are home to the Nationals this weekend, so expecting them to drop 2 of 3 is asking a lot. The Giants and DBacks, on the other hand, are playing the Dodgers and Phillies, so...

Edited September 18, 2025 by bukie

[soccer10k]

27 minutes ago, gflore34 said:

Today could be one of those games that we've seen when the Cubs were in Reds' position.  Needing every win they can get facing a team with a lesser pitcher and, in Cubs case, probably a hangover line up.  The Cubs win anyway while the Reds grind saw dust from their bats.

Wasn’t it 2017 that we clinched the division in St Louis, put out a forfeit lineup against them the next day and beat them anyway to knock them out of the playoffs?

[Andy]

6 minutes ago, soccer10k said:

Wasn’t it 2017 that we clinched the division in St Louis, put out a forfeit lineup against them the next day and beat them anyway to knock them out of the playoffs?

I believe it was. That was an excellent weekend.

[NorthsideAvenger]

4 minutes ago, soccer10k said:

Wasn’t it 2017 that we clinched the division in St Louis, put out a forfeit lineup against them the next day and beat them anyway to knock them out of the playoffs?

The Leonys Martin catch. 

[mul21]

21 minutes ago, soccer10k said:

Wasn’t it 2017 that we clinched the division in St Louis, put out a forfeit lineup against them the next day and beat them anyway to knock them out of the playoffs?

I was at that clincher.  Watching Carl's Jr. run out on the field with the W flag as a cape in Busch was absolutely amazing.

[gflore34]

31 minutes ago, soccer10k said:

Wasn’t it 2017 that we clinched the division in St Louis, put out a forfeit lineup against them the next day and beat them anyway to knock them out of the playoffs?

This game - https://www.baseball-reference.com/boxes/SLN/SLN201709280.shtml - forgot all about that, certainly was a hangover/forfeit lineup.

[gflore34]

44 minutes ago, bukie said:

A split probably puts them on life support, under 5% for the playoffs.

Cubs taking 3 of 4 would effectively end it.

EDIT: The Mets are home to the Nationals this weekend, so expecting them to drop 2 of 3 is asking a lot. The Giants and DBacks, on the other hand, are playing the Dodgers and Phillies, so...

I'd love to see the Mets crap out, would be hilarious.

[mul21]

Not sure if it'll be relevant to their playoff rotation, but the Brewers put Quintana on the IL retroactive to 9/15, so he's done for the regular season and I suspect it would be tough for him to be in any kind of shape to start a game in the NLDS.

[gflore34]

6 minutes ago, mul21 said:

Not sure if it'll be relevant to their playoff rotation, but the Brewers put Quintana on the IL retroactive to 9/15, so he's done for the regular season and I suspect it would be tough for him to be in any kind of shape to start a game in the NLDS.

Isn't Quintana kind of the Cubs version of Colin Rea?  Early on, was never thought to play a big role and had an unexpectedly good season but, may be left off the playoff roster?

[squally1313]

4 minutes ago, gflore34 said:

Isn't Quintana kind of the Cubs version of Colin Rea?  Early on, was never thought to play a big role and had an unexpectedly good season but, may be left off the playoff roster?

lol spot on

[gflore34]

1 minute ago, squally1313 said:

lol spot on

For the Brewers bigger loss may be Megill, don't know his current status, he's on the 15 day IL.

[squally1313]

2 minutes ago, gflore34 said:

For the Brewers bigger loss may be Megill, don't know his current status, he's on the 15 day IL.

Elbow soreness for Megill during a bullpen session two days ago. So doesn't look good there. They've slowed down on Uribe pretty significantly, only pitched twice since 9/5, but you need all the arms you can get. 

[BKHoo]

Padres losing.  We seem very locked into WC#1. 

[sweetpeteman]

2 hours ago, gflore34 said:

This game - https://www.baseball-reference.com/boxes/SLN/SLN201709280.shtml - forgot all about that, certainly was a hangover/forfeit lineup.

Don't forget the best part of that game - Leonys Martin robbing DeJong of a game tying homer to end the game and the Cards' season.