Nico Hoerner is the Type of Player Built for October

As we all know, Nico Hoerner hasn't been quite as indispensable for the 2026 Cubs as it looked like he might be. On the year, he’s slashing just .247/.314/.340. He doesn’t hit the ball particularly hard; he doesn’t produce many extra-base hits; and his two-month slump took him from a budding leadoff dynamo to someone being kept in the lineup by his glove and his contract. Fortunately, he's emerging from that quagmire, but he's no longer as essential to the team's offense, given the next-level season Pete Crow-Armstrong is having.

Yet, while Hoerner may not be the type of player who dominates a box score, there are several things he does at an extremely high level—and when you look at the way postseason baseball is played, he could quietly be one of the biggest reasons why the Cubs do—or don’t—make a serious run this October.

There’s reason to believe he’s been better than his stats indicate. Hoerner’s expected batting average sits at .289, more than 40 points higher than his actual mark. His squared-up rate ranks in the 98th percentile among major-league hitters, showing that even though he doesn’t consistently produce elite exit velocities, he’s still finding ways to make quality contact.

His bat-to-ball skills remain among the best in baseball; his whiff rate and strikeout rate both rank in the 98th percentile or better. He's walking more than he’s striking out this season. That’s the type of skill set that can become incredibly important in October. Postseason games are often decided by small margins. One extended at-bat, one baserunner created out of nowhere or one mistake avoided can completely change the outcome of a game. Hoerner has built his career around those types of plays. And while his offensive numbers haven’t been what many expected, his ability to consistently put the ball in play gives the Cubs another tough at-bat in their lineup. If he's now getting back to being that .290 hitter with patience and a modicum of gap power, he rapidly becomes a major threat again.

Throughout his career, Hoerner has been one of the more dangerous baserunners in baseball. While his sprint speed may not quite be what it once was, he still ranks among the better athletes at his position. He’s stolen at least 29 bases in each of the last three seasons, showcasing his ability to change games without needing to drive the ball over the fence. That type of pressure can completely alter the way pitchers attack hitters. A single can turn into a runner in scoring position. A routine ground ball can become a potential scoring opportunity. Defenses have to play differently when they know a player has the ability to take an extra base.

Those are the things that don’t always show up in traditional statistics, but they matter. The same can be said for Hoerner’s defense. This season, he ranks in the 99th percentile in Outs Above Average, continuing to show why the Cubs value him so highly on that side of the ball. Organizations around baseball have placed a greater emphasis on defense in recent years, and that’s a big part of why the Cubs committed to Hoerner for the next six years.

As the saying goes, defense wins championships. While that may sound cliché, there’s a reason it continues to be repeated. In the postseason, one defensive mistake can be the difference between moving on and going home. Having a player like Hoerner, who can consistently turn difficult plays into outs, gives the Cubs a level of stability that becomes even more important in high-pressure moments. His own defensive miscue cost the team the game Monday night, but that only underscores the importance of his skill set, and on balance, he's less likely to have such a costly hiccup than almost anyone else in the league.

Perhaps the most encouraging sign for the Cubs is that Hoerner has already shown he can elevate his game when the lights get brighter. During last year’s postseason run, he was one of Chicago’s biggest contributors. Across the Cubs’ eight playoff games, Hoerner went 13-for-31, collecting as many extra-base hits as strikeouts. He didn’t try to become a different player. You need that from your veterans.

Hoerner may not always receive the same attention as some of the Cubs’ biggest names, but if Chicago is going to make a deep postseason run, he’s going to have a major role in it. He’s the kind of player who can quietly change a game, and that makes him one of the Cubs’ biggest X-factors heading down the stretch.