Cubs (Horton) vs Pirates (Skenes): 9/16/25, 5:40pm

[soccer10k]

1 hour ago, chibears55 said:

W..  

Magic number is 1 over SF Cin AZ

Reds are losing, AZ and SF just starting 

Magic number is 8 over Padres 

Padres are losing 

 

Im good with them needing to get a W tomorrow to clinch, makes it a fun watch this way.  Doing it in Pittsburgh will bring memory of Harry's call in 1984 "Cubs are champions Cubs are champions " lol

Arizona can tie us on record but we have the tiebreaker due to H2H. SF has the tiebreaker over us.

[bukie]

2 hours ago, bukie said:

Cubs magic number down to 1.

Cubs have clinched a better record than the Reds.

Cubs have clinched a better record than the Royals

Edited September 17, 2025 by bukie

[Bertz]

So we can't clinch tonight because there are some insanely unlikely but technically plausible 3 way tie scenarios with us, the Mets, and the Dbacks?  Do I have that right?

[bukie]

40 minutes ago, Bertz said:

So we can't clinch tonight because there are some insanely unlikely but technically plausible 3 way tie scenarios with us, the Mets, and the Dbacks?  Do I have that right?

That is correct.

[bukie]

1 hour ago, bukie said:

Cubs have clinched a better record than the Royals.

Cubs have clinched a better record than the Giants.

One NL team to go and playoffs are clinched.

Edited September 17, 2025 by bukie

[bukie]

23 minutes ago, bukie said:

That is correct.

However, this just means the Cubs can clinch on the field tomorrow, since they play the early game.

[soccer10k]

33 minutes ago, bukie said:

However, this just means the Cubs can clinch on the field tomorrow, since they play the early game.

Which is the ideal situation. Before I heard about the 3 way tiebreaker thing, I was hoping the Giants would win since I thought that would mean we wouldn't clinch because another team lost.

[Derwood]

Castro's .237 batting average makes me sad

*checks notes*

Sorry, Casrto's .237 slugging percentage makes me sad

[CubUgly]

10 hours ago, JHBulls said:

What even is the point of the LA Angels? 

The term "Moribund Franchise" seems made for them.  As much as we complain about ours, man thank goodness I'm not an Angels fan!!

[Derwood]

3 minutes ago, CubUgly said:

The term "Moribund Franchise" seems made for them.  As much as we complain about ours, man thank goodness I'm not an Angels fan!!

They had Trout and Ohtani for 6 years and failed to produce a winning record. 

[Geographyhater8888]

7 hours ago, bukie said:

However, this just means the Cubs can clinch on the field tomorrow, since they play the early game.

Do you know the specifics? The cubs hold the head to head tie breaker over Arizona and Arizona split with the Mets, in the event of a 3 way tie the Cubs would be seeded behind the Mets and ahead of Arizona. Is this in the event of a 4 way tie with Sandiego where tie breaker rules are different?

Edited September 17, 2025 by Geographyhater8888

[Jason Ross]

34 minutes ago, Geographyhater8888 said:

Do you know the specifics? The cubs hold the head to head tie breaker over Arizona and Arizona split with the Mets, in the event of a 3 way tie the Cubs would be seeded behind the Mets and ahead of Arizona. Is this in the event of a 4 way tie with Sandiego where tie breaker rules are different?

For any of that to matter, the Cubs would have to literally lose every single game the rest of the year. 

They have virtually clinched the playoffs. It is next to impossible for everything to occur that would require a single tie-break scenario. Matt wrote an article on the front page breaking it all done, but needless to say, the Cubs have made the playoffs in any realistic scenario your brain can wrap your head around and by the end of today it will likely be even beyond any mathematical doubt.

[Rcal10]

11 hours ago, squally1313 said:

Just DHing though. and only 5 games left down there. Can call him up after that, Santana is an easy cut and the games next week almost assuredly won't mean anything. I'm not going to lose any sleep over a mediocre McGuire or a very rusty Amaya, neither should be getting starts and Kelly doesn't have a platoon split. 

Speaking of the playoff roster, does there have to be 13 pitchers? In a 3 game series they don’t need the 4th starter. If Jamo isn’t going to start, would it even make sense for him to be on that roster? Why wouldn’t they only have 12 pitchers? Maybe even 11 when you consider a regular season roster has 13 pitchers, with 11 pitchers they would have 3 starters and 8 pen arms(same pen arms as the regular season)

[UMFan83]

1 hour ago, CubUgly said:

The term "Moribund Franchise" seems made for them.  As much as we complain about ours, man thank goodness I'm not an Angels fan!!

The Bulls and Bears are both pathetic but the Angels are unique in that they squander generational talent and are never good but inexplicably go for it at the deadline on occasion and hurt their future more. 

[Geographyhater8888]

45 minutes ago, Jason Ross said:

For any of that to matter, the Cubs would have to literally lose every single game the rest of the year. 

They have virtually clinched the playoffs. It is next to impossible for everything to occur that would require a single tie-break scenario. Matt wrote an article on the front page breaking it all done, but needless to say, the Cubs have made the playoffs in any realistic scenario your brain can wrap your head around and by the end of today it will likely be even beyond any mathematical doubt.

It won’t happen but was curious what the loophole was and or if they don’t update the standings taking into account tie breaker scenarios. 

[squally1313]

37 minutes ago, Rcal10 said:

Speaking of the playoff roster, does there have to be 13 pitchers? In a 3 game series they don’t need the 4th starter. If Jamo isn’t going to start, would it even make sense for him to be on that roster? Why wouldn’t they only have 12 pitchers? Maybe even 11 when you consider a regular season roster has 13 pitchers, with 11 pitchers they would have 3 starters and 8 pen arms(same pen arms as the regular season)

The way the rules are written on the one MLB website I pulled up, I don't think you have to carry 13 pitchers. But part of that conversation above me was me getting to the conclusion that we don't really have uses for a Hamilton or a Ballesteros as it is. Someone like Taillon you bring because the game one starter can get a blister or take a line drive off the elbow or whatever in the first inning, and you probably want someone (separate, worse than Taillon) to soak up innings in a 9-0 after 2 situation. 

[Geographyhater8888]

What’s the highest possible rotation spot for Horton in the playoffs? 

[squally1313]

2 minutes ago, Geographyhater8888 said:

What’s the highest possible rotation spot for Horton in the playoffs? 

Assuming they can take their foot off the gas enough to set up the rotation the way they want to, and 5 games up on the Padres and 5 back on Milwaukee is making that pretty likely, I would guess they probably give him the game 2 slot to split up the lefties. Not sure that's really a thing/advantage that's borne out in actual stats/results, but it's certainly a coach-speak thing, and it gives the 'honor' of game 1 starter and the pressure of a game 3 to the veteran pitcher.

[Jason Ross]

11 minutes ago, Geographyhater8888 said:

What’s the highest possible rotation spot for Horton in the playoffs? 

I would assume we will see Shota game 1, Horton game 2 and Boyd will be game 3 or kept for Series 2 game 1

[Geographyhater8888]

10 minutes ago, Jason Ross said:

I would assume we will see Shota game 1, Horton game 2 and Boyd will be game 3 or kept for Series 2 game 1

What do think his pitch count will be?

[Rcal10]

38 minutes ago, squally1313 said:

The way the rules are written on the one MLB website I pulled up, I don't think you have to carry 13 pitchers. But part of that conversation above me was me getting to the conclusion that we don't really have uses for a Hamilton or a Ballesteros as it is. Someone like Taillon you bring because the game one starter can get a blister or take a line drive off the elbow or whatever in the first inning, and you probably want someone (separate, worse than Taillon) to soak up innings in a 9-0 after 2 situation. 

I just used Taillon as an example. Point is they do not need 13 pitchers. They do not need a 10 man pen. If they like Taillon out of the pen over Soroka, Rea, Assad, or Civelli I have no issues with that. But I do think the bench will be 5 deep. Castro and either Amaya or Mcquire are definite. Then they choose betweeen Turner(who is pretty much definite, to me), Santana, Ballesteros and Hamilton. 🤷 Am I missing someone? 

[Rcal10]

13 minutes ago, Geographyhater8888 said:

What do think his pitch count will be?

Personally, I can see 90. If his arm is strong there is no reason to stay at that 75, IMO. 

[squally1313]

12 minutes ago, Geographyhater8888 said:

What do think his pitch count will be?

If I'm doing the calendar math right, I think he's getting a week off after that start, and in theory should have plenty of rest going into it, so should be pretty close to unlimited.

WC Series is Tuesday 9/30 - Thursday 10/2. Game one of the DS is Saturday 10/4, which would be Boyd if they sweep and probably Taillon if they don't (because Shota would be on 3 days rest). Either way, that puts Shota in for game 2, which is Monday 10/6, and then Horton for Wednesday 10/8. More days off than I had originally thought, and honestly as a neutral baseball fan don't like the day off on Friday 10/3. It benefits whoever wins the WC series, but I like it better conceptually that the winning team has to get right on the road to play game one the next day. 

[Geographyhater8888]

8 minutes ago, squally1313 said:

If I'm doing the calendar math right, I think he's getting a week off after that start, and in theory should have plenty of rest going into it, so should be pretty close to unlimited.

WC Series is Tuesday 9/30 - Thursday 10/2. Game one of the DS is Saturday 10/4, which would be Boyd if they sweep and probably Taillon if they don't (because Shota would be on 3 days rest). Either way, that puts Shota in for game 2, which is Monday 10/6, and then Horton for Wednesday 10/8. More days off than I had originally thought, and honestly as a neutral baseball fan don't like the day off on Friday 10/3. It benefits whoever wins the WC series, but I like it better conceptually that the winning team has to get right on the road to play game one the next day. 

Good. I’m guessing the late inning pen arms will be used as often as needed without any limitations too? Could we see Taillon coming out of the pen at any point in the Wildcard round?

Edited September 17, 2025 by Geographyhater8888

[squally1313]

3 minutes ago, Rcal10 said:

I just used Taillon as an example. Point is they do not need 13 pitchers. They do not need a 10 man pen. If they like Taillon out of the pen over Soroka, Rea, Assad, or Civelli I have no issues with that. But I do think the bench will be 5 deep. Castro and either Amaya or Mcquire are definite. Then they choose betweeen Turner(who is pretty much definite, to me), Santana, Ballesteros and Hamilton. 🤷 Am I missing someone? 

I want as many pitchers as possible, honestly. Among starters with at least 110 innings (to include Horton), our three theoretical playoff starters rank 52nd, 66th, and 78th in xFIP. They've gotten us to the playoffs, but they aren't Good. Boyd, for example, goes 3.77/4.16/4.80/7.76 in xFIP when looking at times through the order. Shota is pretty neutral but has yet to get past three times through the order. I'd be totally fine with the game plan being 18 batters at most for the starters, which leaves 15-20 for the pen guys each game. Besides, who is Santana or Ballesteros pinch hitting for?