Cubs (Boyd) vs Brewers (Misiorowski): 7/28/25, 6:40pm

[chibears55]

46 minutes ago, PeanutPunch33 said:

Assad is criminally underrated by the board.. every year he's been here he's had an ERA under 4, outpacing his FIP by a decent amount every year.  This is also the best defense he'll get to play in front of.  

Now, is he ready to handle a starter's workload after such a long layaway.  Probably not, but that's a different question. 

He's a good player.  Better than Taillon 

Assad likely wont be ready to pitch for the cubs til September after getting cleared and likely getting into a few rehab games in August. 

I wouldn't count on him at all for this season, other then possibly a couple relief outings in September.

 

EDIT: never mind, didn't know he was already rehabbing 🤷‍♂️

Edited July 28, 2025 by chibears55

[Transmogrified Tiger]

1 minute ago, chibears55 said:

Assad likely wont be ready to pitch for the cubs til September after getting cleared and likely getting into a few rehab games. 

I wouldn't count on him at all for this season, other then possibly a couple relief outings in September.

Assad threw 3 innings on rehab assignment 4 days ago.  He's not a week away or anything, but he's very much a candidate to get bulk innings at the big league level from mid-late August onward.

[mul21]

11 minutes ago, chibears55 said:

Assad likely wont be ready to pitch for the cubs til September after getting cleared and likely getting into a few rehab games in August. 

I wouldn't count on him at all for this season, other then possibly a couple relief outings in September.

He's already up to 3 innings in rehab starts so this is way off base.

[UMFan83]

14 minutes ago, mul21 said:

Let's slow down there a little bit.  He's been solid for the Cubs, no doubt, but the way he's stranded runners probably isn't sustainable so he's due for some regression there.  We also haven't seen how he comes back from the myriad injuries he's had since the middle of last season, so he's no guarantee from that standpoint either.

Agreed, we shouldn't count on him as a "deadline acquisition" but I also agree that he's been underrated by Cubs fans.  He's likely a fine option as a 5th starter, assuming like you mentioned, he comes back strong from the injuries he's had.

IIRC, as good as Assad's results have been, there were no guarantees that he had a rotation spot available coming into this spring.   Possibly due to the high strand rates casting some doubt on his future effectiveness.

[BigSlick]

Assad's my dawg. I don't care what the peripherals say on him, I"m hyped to see him in action again. 

It does make me think about how particularly unlucky the Cubs have been with their rotation this season so far. We've lost Assad, Steele and lost major chunks of time with Imanaga and now Taillon (who's also been mediocre when healthy). The fact they're tied for the best record in baseball is pretty astonishing in light of that. 

[Tryptamine]

Emmanuel Clase is now a part of the gambling investigation with the Guardians, cross him off the list.

[Rcal10]

Couple of points based on several different opinions and statements. First, Assad is a fine #5 starter. He is not better than Taillon. Next, he will be ready to be back on the team by mid August. And he could start then. He will do more than pitch in relief and it will be before September. I know many just look at era and determine the guy is good or bad. I know several fans couldn’t care less about peripherals but they do matter. The fact is Assad has been luckier than he is good. He has pitched to MOR counting numbers but with actual underlying numbers that suggest he is a #5 moving forward. This isn’t criminally underrating him, it is just speaking the truth. He is a bit better than Rea so that should help. But he isn’t someone I want pitching game 3 of a playoff series. 

[chibears55]

38 minutes ago, mul21 said:

He's already up to 3 innings in rehab starts so this is way off base.

Ok, didn't realize he was already rehabbing.

 I still dont think we will see too much of him with the Cubs this season, maybe a start or two over Horton or used as an opener to Horton if they shut Horton down or peel back his innings.

But I think more likely a few games out if the bullpen before shutting him down and preparing him for a normal offseason of work to get him ready for 2026.

 

Also, since hes rehabbiing now, would he be eligible to be used in a trade or does he have to be officially removed from the IL first before being traded if they choose to use him in a deal

 

 

Edited July 28, 2025 by chibears55

[UMFan83]

The lack of mega threads is whatever, but I'm kind of missing it during this deadline.  There are like 5-6 different threads talking about the deadline and it takes forever to click through them to find any news.

[soccer10k]

I had completely forgotten about Assad. Also didn’t realize oblique injuries could keep a guy out for this long.

[Rcal10]

3 minutes ago, soccer10k said:

I had completely forgotten about Assad. Also didn’t realize oblique injuries could keep a guy out for this long.

He was coming back and injured it again. Normally it doesn’t take this long. 

Edited July 28, 2025 by Rcal10

[Derwood]

1 hour ago, gflore34 said:

Didn't the Mets trade for Soto (LHP)?  Or was he someone signed off the waiver wire?

And Fedde was traded to Atlanta

[Neuby]

28 minutes ago, UMFan83 said:

The lack of mega threads is whatever, but I'm kind of missing it during this deadline.  There are like 5-6 different threads talking about the deadline and it takes forever to click through them to find any news.

Unite the clans.

[chibears55]

Is there an actual Cubs or trade deadline thread posted, I only saw one titled but closed.

[DrCub]

4 hours ago, Bertz said:

The Cubs are among the better teams in the league at handling velo.  Against pitches 98 MPH+

- 10th in xwOBA

- 11th lowest whiff rate

- 8th in hard hit rate

- 5th in barrel rate

Add in that Miz has generally been 5 and dive, and I don't think this is going to be as bad of a day for the offense as you'd think.

I’ll take “the under” for $5k Alex…..

[KCCub]

Good time to get the deal done before any big TDL moves have been made. 

Edited July 28, 2025 by KCCub

[muntjack]

I like it

[Tryptamine]

4 minutes ago, KCCub said:

Good time to get the deal done before any big TDL moves have been made. 

TBD

[DrCub]

32 minutes ago, KCCub said:

Good time to get the deal done before any big TDL moves have been made. 

Meh.  Not the worst thing that could happen. 

[PeanutPunch33]

3 hours ago, mul21 said:

Let's slow down there a little bit.  He's been solid for the Cubs, no doubt, but the way he's stranded runners probably isn't sustainable so he's due for some regression there.  We also haven't seen how he comes back from the myriad injuries he's had since the middle of last season, so he's no guarantee from that standpoint either.

But we've been saying that for 3 years with him.  I agree that some regression might be on the surface.. but I also think there is a real chance that this is just who he is.  Someone who minimizes damage because he keeps the ball in the park at a (usually) above average level.  

[PeanutPunch33]

3 hours ago, Rcal10 said:

Couple of points based on several different opinions and statements. First, Assad is a fine #5 starter. He is not better than Taillon. Next, he will be ready to be back on the team by mid August. And he could start then. He will do more than pitch in relief and it will be before September. I know many just look at era and determine the guy is good or bad. I know several fans couldn’t care less about peripherals but they do matter. The fact is Assad has been luckier than he is good. He has pitched to MOR counting numbers but with actual underlying numbers that suggest he is a #5 moving forward. This isn’t criminally underrating him, it is just speaking the truth. He is a bit better than Rea so that should help. But he isn’t someone I want pitching game 3 of a playoff series. 

What makes Taillon better?  Assad has a higher average WAR, ERA, ERA+, and a slightly better FIP in their Cubs careers.  Taillon is the definition of average, and years like this, that is even being generous.  I also think Assad has way more upside as a 27 year old.  I don't want Assad pitching a game 3 either, but I'd much rather see him throw some meaningful playoff innings than Taillon or Rea.  

[PeanutPunch33]

1 hour ago, KCCub said:

Good time to get the deal done before any big TDL moves have been made. 

Well deserved.  

[squally1313]

8 minutes ago, PeanutPunch33 said:

But we've been saying that for 3 years with him.  I agree that some regression might be on the surface.. but I also think there is a real chance that this is just who he is.  Someone who minimizes damage because he keeps the ball in the park at a (usually) above average level.  

He has a 1.13 HR/9 in his major league career and it's trending in the wrong direction (0.96, 1.07, 1.22 from 2022 to 2024). From 2022 to 2025 the HR/9 rates are 1.09, 1.23, 1.14, 1.14, so over that whole stretch he's basically completely average and he's trending towards being worse than average. 

What he has done is maintain a LOB% of over 80% every year, where the league average is between 71.9% and 72.6%. The only thing I've been able to find about pitchers outperforming a normal LOB% is that high strikeout pitchers can sometimes do it, but he's been below average there as well. From there it becomes a little more theoretical. Does he buckle down and try harder with guys on? Does he pitch unusually well from the stretch? If either of those are the case, why doesn't he just do that all the time? Or...have the baserunners he's given up been beneficially spaced out to avoid runners crossing the plate in a way that is almost certainly out of his hands and not something you'd want to rely on continuing going forward? I lean towards the latter. 

[squally1313]

That's not to say he doesn't have value by the way. I get frustrated when I see people complain about having one below average hitter in a line up of nine, because that's just not how math works. Every team is going to get significant innings from guys like Assad (and worse!). Based on his career numbers with a 2024 lean he's probably an upgrade over Rea. I was hoping we'd have a bunch of cushion by now and guys like him and Rea could spell Horton, Boyd, etc. While obviously not the case in the division, we're 5.5 clear of a playoff spot (and 96% to make the playoffs per FG) so it's not some full on battle for October just yet. And I think, if you have the luxury of extra healthy starting pitchers, you want to see if their stuff can play up in short bursts (Assad's did in 2023). 

But I'm going to be real upset if we get any sort of talk about how the deadline improvements are coming from within. Assad eats innings, any October situation where he's a starter or in a leverage situation is a failure on Jed's part. 

[PeanutPunch33]

29 minutes ago, squally1313 said:

He has a 1.13 HR/9 in his major league career and it's trending in the wrong direction (0.96, 1.07, 1.22 from 2022 to 2024). From 2022 to 2025 the HR/9 rates are 1.09, 1.23, 1.14, 1.14, so over that whole stretch he's basically completely average and he's trending towards being worse than average. 

What he has done is maintain a LOB% of over 80% every year, where the league average is between 71.9% and 72.6%. The only thing I've been able to find about pitchers outperforming a normal LOB% is that high strikeout pitchers can sometimes do it, but he's been below average there as well. From there it becomes a little more theoretical. Does he buckle down and try harder with guys on? Does he pitch unusually well from the stretch? If either of those are the case, why doesn't he just do that all the time? Or...have the baserunners he's given up been beneficially spaced out to avoid runners crossing the plate in a way that is almost certainly out of his hands and not something you'd want to rely on continuing going forward? I lean towards the latter. 

That's fair.  This is just a gut feeling more than anything else, but I think his best days are in front of him.  Whether it's a different delivery or arm angle, or even learning a new pitch.. It's hard not to watch guys like Palencia and PCA take such massive steps forward this year, and think that a guy like Assad wasn't primed to do the same thing if not for his injuries.  

Also agree that the Cubs absolutely have to find a TORP this deadline.  Anything less than a major trade would be malpractice.