Cubs (Imanaga) vs Twins (Woods Richardson): 7/8/25, 6:40pm

[PeanutPunch33]

11 minutes ago, Jason Ross said:

That's a really, really bad take. It's based on almost nothing.

First, what the batting order was on Day-1 should mean little, the landscape of the lineup then and now has changed greatly. Secondly, if the Cubs weren't patient with Shaw, he wouldn't be playing every single day. They have stuck with him, given him plenty of leeway. He's shown immense progress with the glove, and if you'd scroll back a page, you'd see all of the underlying data tied with mechanical tweaks. 

A good reminder, on July 8th last year that Pete Crow-Armstrong had a 52 wRC+ on July 8th last year, and Miguel Amaya had a 50 wRC+. Shaw has a 68, and unlike the two of them, the xData suggests he's been wildly unlucky (6th worst differential between BABIP and xBABIP and an xWOBA almost .40 points below what his wOBA is).

I'm not Jed Hoyer, but I'm very confident that you are 100% wrong on their patience. It's fans patience that wears thin, not the Cubs. They've shown a pretty strong aptitude in developing players over the last few years when I'm fairly certain on this time last year fans would have tossed PCA aside as well as Amaya. We can say today how stupid that would have been.

On the last bit; Jordan Wicks has been hurt for a year (and debuted strong), while Matt Shaw was never supposed to move this quickly. No scout on draft day had him in the MLB by OD 2025. You're being impatient. Both moved quick, Wicks dealt with unforseen injury luck (and has made considerable progress adding 2mph of velocity since his debut in 2023) and Shaw is doing what almost every good prospect in baseball does, struggle on their initial callup.

We gotta stop doing this. At this point, I almost hope the Cubs trade every single prospect at the deadline so we can at least skip this part of development.

 

Well the fact that they started him 5th on opening day is pretty telling.  It says that they had high expectations for him from the jump.  Has he met those expectations in your eyes?

And doing what exactly?  Being critical of players who can't hit the ball out of the infield?  He clearly looks overwhelmed at the plate.  Tryptamine is 100% correct, he'd already be on his 2nd trip back to Iowa if the Cubs had any other option at that position.  Hopefully, they will have another option there soon. 

Edited July 8, 2025 by PeanutPunch33

[mul21]

5 minutes ago, PeanutPunch33 said:

Claiming that a rookie with a 69 OPS+ and an 83 MPH exit velo shouldn't be playing every day for a team that is good enough everywhere else to win the World Series = "pants shitting hysteria".  Totally reasonable take 🙄

Prospect nut huggers are so funny to me.  Don't let me get in the way of you pretending every MLB prospect is the next PCA 

Your inability to grasp the fact that the chasm between AAA and MLB is larger right now than ever before and there are essentially zero prospects who come up and succeed immediately anymore.  It doesn't mean people are "prospect nut huggers" as you so eloquently say, it means the level of patience required for hitters to develop into quality MLB hitters is much greater than it was even 5 years ago.  Guys like Horton, Skenes, and Chase Burns just aren't spending time in AAA for hitters to see that quality of pitching and make that jump to MLB easier.  Nobody is saying Shaw is going to hit like PCA, they're saying he's likely to be a lot better than he's been so far once that adjustment fully happens.

[Jason Ross]

10 minutes ago, PeanutPunch33 said:

 

Well the fact that they started him 5th on opening day is pretty telling.  It says that they had high expectations for him from the jump.  Has he met those expectations in your eyes?

And doing what exactly?  Being critical of players who can't hit the ball out of the infield?  He clearly looks overwhelmed at the plate 

Can I ask you a question: have you looked at any of the data I have provided either in this thread regarding his mechanical changes, his EV's, and swing decisions? I've outlined a pretty compelling data driven argument for changes and bad luck. If you haven't, then I would implore you to scroll up; Shaw has been exceedingly unlucky. There also is evidence that the EV's are going up and the quality of contact is getting better. 

We also have data point after data point of recent prospect callups league wide who suck for hundreds of PA's before they find their footing. These are not limited to Wyatt Langford (who has been another player who's had exceedingly bad luck, but finished last year with a 110 wRC+ after a really rough four months), Jackson Chourio, CJ Abrams, Andy Pages, Riley Greene, Sal Frelick and Kyle Stowars, multiple of whom are current all-stars. Jac Caglione is currently going through the throws of learning MLB pitching. This is the new norm. 

It seems like you just want to be upset that Matt Shaw isn't meeting your lofty, and frankly, out-of-touch expectations and your grasping at straws has lead you to "well the Cubs had him hit fifth on Opening Day" as your hill to die on. You are leading with emotion instead of logic, and I know you are capable of being logical. 

[PeanutPunch33]

1 minute ago, mul21 said:

Your inability to grasp the fact that the chasm between AAA and MLB is larger right now than ever before and there are essentially zero prospects who come up and succeed immediately anymore.  It doesn't mean people are "prospect nut huggers" as you so eloquently say, it means the level of patience required for hitters to develop into quality MLB hitters is much greater than it was even 5 years ago.  Guys like Horton, Skenes, and Chase Burns just aren't spending time in AAA for hitters to see that quality of pitching and make that jump to MLB easier.  Nobody is saying Shaw is going to hit like PCA, they're saying he's likely to be a lot better than he's been so far once that adjustment fully happens.

I never said he won't be better in future.  The question is whether you want those ABs going to him in October.  For me, that is a resounding no.  

[mul21]

Just now, PeanutPunch33 said:

I never said he won't be better in future.  The question is whether you want those ABs going to him in October.  For me, that is a resounding no.  

Then you don't understand or have any desire to acknowledge the development curves of prospects right now.  And just like any young player, even post breakout PCA, he's likely to struggle in the postseason regardless because the pitchers are really damn good and that's why their teams are there.  

If he puts up a 110 wRC+ in August and September, would you still feel that way?

[PeanutPunch33]

1 minute ago, mul21 said:

Then you don't understand or have any desire to acknowledge the development curves of prospects right now.  And just like any young player, even post breakout PCA, he's likely to struggle in the postseason regardless because the pitchers are really damn good and that's why their teams are there.  

If he puts up a 110 wRC+ in August and September, would you still feel that way?

To be honest I would feel the exact same way, when the alternative is a guy who will end with 40+ bombs, has plenty of playoff experience and has always dominated at Wrigley Field.  I concede that I could be more patient with Shaw's development, but you even just admitted that he will probably struggle in October.  Why throw those ABs away?  You want to jeopardize a WS run just to pacify a rookie?  

[PeanutPunch33]

7 minutes ago, Jason Ross said:

Can I ask you a question: have you looked at any of the data I have provided either in this thread regarding his mechanical changes, his EV's, and swing decisions? I've outlined a pretty compelling data driven argument for changes and bad luck. If you haven't, then I would implore you to scroll up; Shaw has been exceedingly unlucky. There also is evidence that the EV's are going up and the quality of contact is getting better. 

We also have data point after data point of recent prospect callups league wide who suck for hundreds of PA's before they find their footing. These are not limited to Wyatt Langford (who has been another player who's had exceedingly bad luck, but finished last year with a 110 wRC+ after a really rough four months), Jackson Chourio, CJ Abrams, Andy Pages, Riley Greene, Sal Frelick and Kyle Stowars, multiple of whom are current all-stars. Jac Caglione is currently going through the throws of learning MLB pitching. This is the new norm. 

It seems like you just want to be upset that Matt Shaw isn't meeting your lofty, and frankly, out-of-touch expectations and your grasping at straws has lead you to "well the Cubs had him hit fifth on Opening Day" as your hill to die on. You are leading with emotion instead of logic, and I know you are capable of being logical. 

I will take a closer look at it.  I'm glad that he's marginally improving, and it's unfortunate he's been unlucky, but it just seems like too much risk to me to have him starting at 3rd base in October.  Just my opinion.  The Cubs owe it to the other guys in that locker room to put their best foot forward. 

[BigSlick]

I'm never a person to suggest that we leave a poor hitter in a position for no reason, but I will say there's possibly no lineup in the MLB that is better position right now to absorb having Matt Shaw figure it out for a few months

[Hot Sauce]

3 hours ago, PeanutPunch33 said:

You mean break out, like he gets pimples on his face right?  Because it sure as hell isn't happening on the baseball field.  I can't wait until Eugenio Suarez is a Cub.  Although the Diamondbacks probably need to lose a bit more until that becomes a real possibility.  

This may not happen and if it doesn’t, that’s okay, because this team can still compete for a pennant with Shaw at 3rd. In fact, I’m quite comfortable with it because I believe the bat will catch up to the exceptional glove.

[Jason Ross]

12 minutes ago, PeanutPunch33 said:

I will take a closer look at it.  I'm glad that he's marginally improving, and it's unfortunate he's been unlucky, but it just seems like too much risk to me to have him starting at 3rd base in October.  Just my opinion.  The Cubs owe it to the other guys in that locker room to put their best foot forward. 

I'll leave you with three visuals, his wOBA rolling average, his rolling xwOBA, and his hard hit%. This should paint a picture that words won't need to:

 

Notice how the bottom two are on sharp inclines yet the wOBA hasn't gone with, and actually, dropping? It's bad luck.

To wrap up I'll also leave this:

Shaw's xwOBA: .306
League average 3b wOBA: .306

[Tangled Up in Plaid]

Was looking at Cade Horton's bref page and noticed this

Too small a sample or something to it?

[PeanutPunch33]

7 minutes ago, Jason Ross said:

I'll leave you with three visuals, his wOBA rolling average, his rolling xwOBA, and his hard hit%. This should paint a picture that words won't need to:

 

Notice how the bottom two are on sharp inclines yet the wOBA hasn't gone with, and actually, dropping? It's bad luck.

To wrap up I'll also leave this:

Shaw's xwOBA: .306
League average 3b wOBA: .306

That makes sense.  He's definitely improving which is encouraging, and been unlucky.

But you really wouldn't be excited if the Cubs got Suarez.  It's just one of those unique opportunities to add a guy that can make a true difference in the playoffs.  If the Cubs were playing a 5 game series, I'd expect Suarez to hit at least 1 HR, possibly even 2 or 3.  I wouldn't expect Shaw to hit a single one.  Even if he continues steadily improving.  If Suarez wasn't available then I wouldn't mind them rolling with him, but that's a great player that can be had, with a short term commitment.  

Does it really stunt his growth to sit behind a vet for 2 or 3 months and observe.  

[Rcal10]

22 minutes ago, PeanutPunch33 said:

To be honest I would feel the exact same way, when the alternative is a guy who will end with 40+ bombs, has plenty of playoff experience and has always dominated at Wrigley Field.  I concede that I could be more patient with Shaw's development, but you even just admitted that he will probably struggle in October.  Why throw those ABs away?  You want to jeopardize a WS run just to pacify a rookie?  

You are comparing Shaw to a guy who at this point, probably isn’t even available. I mean, sure, if you asked me if I would rather have Suarez in the line up this year than Shaw, of course I would take Suarez. But yiu are suggesting the Cubs are playing Shaw instead of Suarez. That isn’t the case. They don’t have Suarez to play. 

[Transmogrified Tiger]

One of the hardest roster building things to communicate is this somewhat contradictory idea. You cannot win in the modern game without a steady stream of pre-arb players, and without a couple of them being very good on top of that. But as a probability you should bet on every one of them to fall short. So you have to balance that idea that every individual prospect is a losing bet, but you have to make a lot of those bets, because not making them will lead to failure too. 

The Cubs plan on being good this year, and they plan on being good next year and the year after that.  Because of that, they have to be willing to deal with the imperfections that come with development in order to keep that up.  Shaw might never turn the corner, and that's a risk.  They've traded for 3B each of the previous two deadlines and both of them were notably worse with the Cubs(Paredes to a degree that some people thought he was not good at all), so there's risk in that avenue as well.  They'll likely do something to hedge Shaw's production, but especially considering the buffer afforded by being one of the clear Top 3 offenses in the game, and that Shaw's defense/baserunning have been excellent, there is never a better opportunity for a competitive org to let someone work through those growing pains.

[PeanutPunch33]

4 minutes ago, Rcal10 said:

You are comparing Shaw to a guy who at this point, probably isn’t even available. I mean, sure, if you asked me if I would rather have Suarez in the line up this year than Shaw, of course I would take Suarez. But yiu are suggesting the Cubs are playing Shaw instead of Suarez. That isn’t the case. They don’t have Suarez to play. 

I phrased it badly - but I meant that they shouldn't not explore that move at the deadline if it becomes realistic, just because they have a top prospect at 3b who's steadily improving.  

[Rcal10]

2 minutes ago, PeanutPunch33 said:

I phrased it badly - but I meant that they shouldn't not explore that move at the deadline if it becomes realistic, just because they have a top prospect at 3b who's steadily improving.  

I can agree with this, depending on the cost to get Suarez. They can also look to guys like Castro from the Twins to fill in for Shaw and/or improve their bench. Suarez is a big swing guy. If he is cost prohibitive a lower cost guy to be insurance for Shaw could work too. 

[Jason Ross]

36 minutes ago, PeanutPunch33 said:

That makes sense.  He's definitely improving which is encouraging, and been unlucky.

But you really wouldn't be excited if the Cubs got Suarez.  It's just one of those unique opportunities to add a guy that can make a true difference in the playoffs.  If the Cubs were playing a 5 game series, I'd expect Suarez to hit at least 1 HR, possibly even 2 or 3.  I wouldn't expect Shaw to hit a single one.  Even if he continues steadily improving.  If Suarez wasn't available then I wouldn't mind them rolling with him, but that's a great player that can be had, with a short term commitment.  

Does it really stunt his growth to sit behind a vet for 2 or 3 months and observe.  

So, first, I never said I wouldn't be excited. It's that the reality is a few things. 

1. As TT already said, the Cubs are set up perfectly to absorb Shaw's imperfections currently. They have not been held back in anyways by him so far. And the Cubs need to find young players who are cheap if they are to spend on players like Tucker, which I think we all want them to do!

2. The deadline will only allow the Cubs to make so many moves. They can't do everything and they don't trade in a vacuum - other teams want Suarez too. They have the 2nd or 3rd best offense in baseball (depending on whether you'd rather use bulk runs scored or wRC+). While Suarez would be cool, he's a pure luxury. If Shaw just plays to his xwOBA as a league average offensive 3b, the difference between Suarez and him is more marginal than revolutionary. Other teams will likely have less of a luxury case for Suarez.

Beyond that, the Cubs SP is heavily tested. They're a bottom-10 unit right now based on fWAR, and 19th based on ERA and xFIP. Horton, for as good as he has flashed, will not be able to keep up this many innings...he needs a break. They need pitchers. And the prospect capital they spend should be here, first. 

The Cubs can find a way to pad Shaw a bit by added a Ramon Urias type (or Willi Castro, or someone else like that) who can specifically, hit lefties well, while also providing some ability against RHP pretty easily. And given the needs the Cubs have, "more offense" is kind of like studying really hard for a class you already have an A in while ignoring studying for a class you have a C in. Sure, if you do so well in that one class, you might carry an honor-roll GPA, but it's probably easier to get there by focusing the bulk of your time into the class that you can make easier and larger gains in.

[UMFan83]

8 hours ago, Bertz said:

I think this series is going to be less easy than folks think.  The SP matchups are advantageous obviously, but the Twins' bullpen is monstrous and their position player group is solid.  Add in being on the road and I don't think we should just assume a cake walk.

I'll be happy with 3-3 this week heading into the break.

3-3 would be solid. I didn’t realize the Yankees have the number 1 OPS in baseball against LHP and the Cubs are on pace to have at least 2 lefties, possibly 3 if Wicks starts or plays the majority of 1 game. 

[PeanutPunch33]

24 minutes ago, Jason Ross said:

So, first, I never said I wouldn't be excited. It's that the reality is a few things. 

1. As TT already said, the Cubs are set up perfectly to absorb Shaw's imperfections currently. They have not been held back in anyways by him so far. And the Cubs need to find young players who are cheap if they are to spend on players like Tucker, which I think we all want them to do!

2. The deadline will only allow the Cubs to make so many moves. They can't do everything and they don't trade in a vacuum - other teams want Suarez too. They have the 2nd or 3rd best offense in baseball (depending on whether you'd rather use bulk runs scored or wRC+). While Suarez would be cool, he's a pure luxury. If Shaw just plays to his xwOBA as a league average offensive 3b, the difference between Suarez and him is more marginal than revolutionary. Other teams will likely have less of a luxury case for Suarez.

Beyond that, the Cubs SP is heavily tested. They're a bottom-10 unit right now based on fWAR, and 19th based on ERA and xFIP. Horton, for as good as he has flashed, will not be able to keep up this many innings...he needs a break. They need pitchers. And the prospect capital they spend should be here, first. 

The Cubs can find a way to pad Shaw a bit by added a Ramon Urias type (or Willi Castro, or someone else like that) who can specifically, hit lefties well, while also providing some ability against RHP pretty easily. And given the needs the Cubs have, "more offense" is kind of like studying really hard for a class you already have an A in while ignoring studying for a class you have a C in. Sure, if you do so well in that one class, you might carry an honor-roll GPA, but it's probably easier to get there by focusing the bulk of your time into the class that you can make easier and larger gains in.

That’s a good analogy. At the end of the day if the Cubs want to keep Tucker, they’ll need cost controlled guys at other positions. And Shaw is definitely a good prospect. I understand why they are giving him all the opportunities.  
 

 

[Hot Sauce]

Woods Richardson vs. Crow-Armstrong has got to be a major league record for combined letters in a pitcher-batter matchup.

[JHBulls]

PCA doesn’t have the most letters in his name of any player in this game. Wild. 

[Illiterate Scholar]

PCA and Happ both with pulled 110 mph foul balls. The lefties will get to him eventually 

[Derwood]

PCA still can't lay off that head-high fastball

[CubinNY]

Not a great start 

[PeanutPunch33]

Sucks when a pitcher gets to 2 strikes and can’t finish it