Cubs (Imanaga) vs Twins (Woods Richardson): 7/8/25, 6:40pm

[Jason Ross]

9 minutes ago, gflore34 said:

Perhaps, this is the series Shaw breaks out a little?  Some thought he was close, series against the Cardinals he had maybe, one hit, don't recall him hitting the ball particularly hard.

Yeah, Shaw did not hit well against St Louis. He had been trending in the correct direction with batted ball prior to that, however. I thought he got real pull happy. Which, I guess could be a few things. It could be bad pitch recognition. it could be bad PA's. Could also be an approach shift and he's working through it (he's made a bunch of mechanical tweaks over the year already). 

[NorthsideAvenger]

I'm interested to see what Shaw does in the 2nd half.

[gflore34]

2 minutes ago, Jason Ross said:

Yeah, Shaw did not hit well against St Louis. He had been trending in the correct direction with batted ball prior to that, however. I thought he got real pull happy. Which, I guess could be a few things. It could be bad pitch recognition. it could be bad PA's. Could also be an approach shift and he's working through it (he's made a bunch of mechanical tweaks over the year already). 

Starting wise I believe he'll be facing types very similar to what he saw from the Cardinals maybe, that'll help. 

[PeanutPunch33]

48 minutes ago, gflore34 said:

Perhaps, this is the series Shaw breaks out a little?  Some thought he was close, series against the Cardinals he had maybe, one hit, don't recall him hitting the ball particularly hard.

You mean break out, like he gets pimples on his face right?  Because it sure as hell isn't happening on the baseball field.  I can't wait until Eugenio Suarez is a Cub.  Although the Diamondbacks probably need to lose a bit more until that becomes a real possibility.  

Edited July 8, 2025 by PeanutPunch33

[Derwood]

I'm curious what the hitting coach is telling/teaching Shaw. It feels like he's been up their guessing for a month. The times he has hit the ball hard feel more like "blind squirrel finds nut" than any specific mechanical fix or strike zone understanding

[PeanutPunch33]

4 minutes ago, Derwood said:

I'm curious what the hitting coach is telling/teaching Shaw. It feels like he's been up their guessing for a month. The times he has hit the ball hard feel more like "blind squirrel finds nut" than any specific mechanical fix or strike zone understanding

I just wish there were more encouraging signs with him.  His ABs look ugly.  His exit velo is amongst the lowest in baseball for qualified hitters.  I don't recall him hitting the ball out of the infield the entire St Louis series but maybe I'm wrong.

He also makes an occasional blunder that's just hard to comprehend, like that one game when he stole a base and didn't realize the ball ended up in center field.  

By the way, sweet profile pic 😂

[gflore34]

19 minutes ago, PeanutPunch33 said:

I just wish there were more encouraging signs with him.  His ABs look ugly.  His exit velo is amongst the lowest in baseball for qualified hitters.  I don't recall him hitting the ball out of the infield the entire St Louis series but maybe I'm wrong.

He also makes an occasional blunder that's just hard to comprehend, like that one game when he stole a base and didn't realize the ball ended up in center field.  

By the way, sweet profile pic 😂

I do believe the light will go on for Shaw, it's just not going to happen for a while.

[Jason Ross]

33 minutes ago, Derwood said:

I'm curious what the hitting coach is telling/teaching Shaw. It feels like he's been up their guessing for a month. The times he has hit the ball hard feel more like "blind squirrel finds nut" than any specific mechanical fix or strike zone understanding

I don't necessarily agree with this. His swing decisions and this approach have seen a tick up, as well as his hard contact (prior to the Cardinals series). Significantly, actually! He had about a third of all of his hard hits over the course of a 10 game span, which coincided with elimination of the leg kick and implementation of a toe tap. He had his two hardest hit balls of that run. He also had a significantly low BABIP during that time (he's been among the least lucky hitters in baseball when we compare his BABIP and his xBABIP. 6th lowest to be fair). He also paired back his swings, swinging less in the zone. While correlation does not equate causation, it's important to note that those changes seemingly went hand in hand and that'd be a pretty big coincidence. Like, literally hand-in-hand, his first PA with his higher hand placement was his second highest EV of the year, followed up just a few games with his third. 

For a vizualization, look at this chart. Note how his BABIP and his hardhit% early was in lockstep, but now, it's not. That's not what you'd expect.

Even taking in his poor Cardinals series here is his post-mechanical tweak EV, max EV, hard hit% and hard hit count compared to his entire year:

Post change: 84.9mph (ev), 107.5mph (max), 16 hard hits, 34,8 hardhit% (46 events)
Return from Iowa pre change: 82.5mph, 107.6 mph, 17 hard hits, 24.3 hard hit% (70 events)
Start of year: 82.7mph, 106.5, 9 hard hits, 22.5 hardhit% (40 events)

I think the data shows that there is definitely progress and it's not just blind squirrel. There has been a sustained and data-driven trend upwards. We can see that here as well:

Post change: 25.2% (o-swing), 59.8% (z-swing), 44.4% (swing%), 83% (contact%), 7.5% (swinging strike)
Return: 34% (o-swing), 65.2% (z-swing), 52.5% (swing%), 83.3% (contact%), 8.8% (swinging strike)
Start: 30.1% (o-swing), 55.15 (z-swing), 42.6% (swing%), 74.1 (contact), 11% (swinging strike)

With this, we can see as well, that he's made improvements with his approach, likely, pitch recognition due to repetition and learning MLB pitching. He's significantly cut his chase rate, while drastically increasing his contact rate. My reading of the data here suggests when he first came up, he was very passive but would chase down in the count. When he came back, he was aggressive, probably to a fault. Recently, he's much better about not chasing, while maintaining a higher swing%; that's usually a sign of a more confident hitter.

Just think he's working through a lot. I'm encouraged at the underlying data, most recent series not withstanding. He was pulling off a lot of outside pitches which lead to ground outs. It was not something I've seen in a while, and he's been very willing to always go the other way, so I would very much wonder if the Cubs are working with him specifically on pulling the baseball right now and that was overcompensating. 

[Tryptamine]

If the Cubs weren't so desperate for help at 3B, I firmly believe Shaw should be in the minors working out the kinks on all of these changes and get some muscle memory on them before he has to do it in the middle of a playoff race, but that's not going to happen so the ASB is probably the best chance he's going to get.

[Jason Ross]

Just now, Tryptamine said:

If the Cubs weren't so desperate for help at 3B, I firmly believe Shaw should be in the minors working out the kinks on all of these changes and get some muscle memory on them before he has to do it in the middle of a playoff race, but that's not going to happen so the ASB is probably the best chance he's going to get.

Kid has a 140 wRC+ in Iowa in 250 PA's, I am a strong believer that Shaw's issues stem directly from the competition curve of MLB pitching. His recent hard hit data (coupled with the mechanical changes) suggest he's making progress, but the BABIP gods have not been on his side (please see chart above; EV uptick and BABIP downtick are spot on his latest tweaks). I'm not sure the mechanical tweaks are dragging him down right now; EV's kind of suggest otherwise. 

If the Cubs had a 120 wRC+ hitter at 3b, he probably would be in Iowa, but I don't think Iowa is going to realistically help him much at this stage. The answer feels like it's more MLB pitching and forcing himself through it. Thankfully for the Cubs and Shaw, they have the 2nd best run scoring and 3rd best wRC+ lineup in baseball, and they can afford a bit below average offensive 3b.

[Tryptamine]

10 minutes ago, Jason Ross said:

Kid has a 140 wRC+ in Iowa in 250 PA's, I am a strong believer that Shaw's issues stem directly from the competition curve of MLB pitching. His recent hard hit data (coupled with the mechanical changes) suggest he's making progress, but the BABIP gods have not been on his side (please see chart above; EV uptick and BABIP downtick are spot on his latest tweaks). I'm not sure the mechanical tweaks are dragging him down right now; EV's kind of suggest otherwise. 

If the Cubs had a 120 wRC+ hitter at 3b, he probably would be in Iowa, but I don't think Iowa is going to realistically help him much at this stage. The answer feels like it's more MLB pitching and forcing himself through it. Thankfully for the Cubs and Shaw, they have the 2nd best run scoring and 3rd best wRC+ lineup in baseball, and they can afford a bit below average offensive 3b.

It's not even about AAA, I just want a low pressure situation where he can really engrain the changes made. Maybe I'm wrong, but that has got to be so much harder in the majors with the pressure and the media, etc. 

[Jason Ross]

7 minutes ago, Tryptamine said:

It's not even about AAA, I just want a low pressure situation where he can really engrain the changes made. Maybe I'm wrong, but that has got to be so much harder in the majors with the pressure and the media, etc. 

Oh, I am certain it is! I don't want to disagree, I think a lower pressure environment would be great. I just don't think there's a situation like that, that isn't like, Miami or Pittsburgh. But I do think in Chicago, right now, it's about the perfect storm to break him in: he isn't asked to do much right now, as he can hit 9th in a pretty stacked lineup. For all of our personal hand wringing, the Cubs have a lead in the division and have had that lead all year, essentially. He's hitting against MLB pitching, which he needs to see. And he's getting a ton of flowers for his defense, which keeps people off him a bit, too. Frankly, it's about the best situation you could draw up for a kid to grit his teeth on the MLB roster for the Cubs.

And the changes do seem like they're making a difference, so while the hits haven't necessarily fallen, he's clearly listening, tweaking, and seeing some positive under the hood data. My hope is that some of these balls start dropping. His xwOBA of .306 has him just under league average of .314 and right on the .306 wOBA for the position. He deserves some good luck.

[Bertz]

Probably worth noting that Amaya's breakout started a year ago this week.  The anniversary of PCA's breakout is still 3 weeks out.  And I'd say the under the hood stuff for Shaw is far less ugly than it was for either of those guys at the same juncture.

That's not to say that Shaw will break out this week or this month or ever.  But when these things happen they tend to happen really quickly and the reward is immense.

[Hot Sauce]

Shaw’s bat will come around. I am more empathetic toward him than concerned about him. He’s going to get it though. 

[We Got The Whole 9]

Caglianone has started his career 16-111 with 2 HR. 17 wRC+. This league is really tough.

[squally1313]

4 minutes ago, We Got The Whole 9 said:

Caglianone has started his career 16-111 with 2 HR. 17 wRC+. This league is really tough.

It would never happen, but a loan system in the majors would be pretty great. Sticking with the Royals, we get Maikel Garcia for two months, they get Matt Shaw for two months and a low level prospect as a sweetener.

[Derwood]

Happ
Tucker
Seiya
PCA
Busch
Dansby
Carson
Nico
Shaw

[Donzo]

Yeah, a year ago I think PCA was hitting .199 and Amaya wasn't hitting either. Both were better the 2nd half. 

Hopefully Shaw takes the same path, but I like Long getting PT at 3B in Iowa. He'd be a good fallback if he was just OK at 3B, which may be pushing it.

[PeanutPunch33]

1 hour ago, Jason Ross said:

If the Cubs had a 120 wRC+ hitter at 3b, he probably would be in Iowa, but I don't think Iowa is going to realistically help him much at this stage. The answer feels like it's more MLB pitching and forcing himself through it. Thankfully for the Cubs and Shaw, they have the 2nd best run scoring and 3rd best wRC+ lineup in baseball, and they can afford a bit below average offensive 3b.

If I recall, the Cubs were hitting Shaw 5th on opening day against the Dodgers.  I personally don't think they are as patient as they are letting on in front of the cameras.  They probably still like him quite a bit as a prospect (and rightfully so), but he has not met their high expectations.  He has been an enormous disappointment for a top prospect.  I think that is 100% fair to say.  

He + Wicks were both supposed to be those guys that didn't take long to contribute at the MLB level due to their 'pedigree' and other buzz words that scouts use.  

[javy knows my name]

1 minute ago, PeanutPunch33 said:

If I recall, the Cubs were hitting Shaw 5th on opening day against the Dodgers.  I personally don't think they are as patient as they are letting on in front of the cameras.  They probably still like him quite a bit as a prospect (and rightfully so), but he has not met their high expectations.  He has been an enormous disappointment for a top prospect.  I think that is 100% fair to say.  

He + Wicks were both supposed to be those guys that didn't take long to contribute at the MLB level due to their 'pedigree' and other buzz words that scouts use.  

I prefer their buzz words to your pearl-clutching nonsense 

[Jason Ross]

32 minutes ago, Donzo said:

Yeah, a year ago I think PCA was hitting .199 and Amaya wasn't hitting either. Both were better the 2nd half. 

Hopefully Shaw takes the same path, but I like Long getting PT at 3B in Iowa. He'd be a good fallback if he was just OK at 3B, which may be pushing it.

I think we're overrating a bit of how good of a fallback he would be. For as good as Long's batted ball data is, he is currently at a 130 wRC+ through 346 PAs in Iowa at age 23. Matt Shaw, through his first 152 PA's in Triple-A posted a 136 wRC+, then in his last 110 posted a 146 wRC+, with his first run at age 22, a year younger than Long. 

We should expect every single prospect to struggle heavily for a few hundred PA's, and Long wasn't as good as Shaw was at the same level. His fallback is likely a slog for 200+ PA's much like Shaw has been, only, without the glove. 

[PeanutPunch33]

1 minute ago, javy knows my name said:

I prefer their buzz words to your pearl-clutching nonsense 

And I prefer 3rd basemen who can produce an exit velo over 83 mph... different strokes for different folks I guess 🤷‍♂️

[Jason Ross]

13 minutes ago, PeanutPunch33 said:

If I recall, the Cubs were hitting Shaw 5th on opening day against the Dodgers.  I personally don't think they are as patient as they are letting on in front of the cameras.  They probably still like him quite a bit as a prospect (and rightfully so), but he has not met their high expectations.  He has been an enormous disappointment for a top prospect.  I think that is 100% fair to say.  

He + Wicks were both supposed to be those guys that didn't take long to contribute at the MLB level due to their 'pedigree' and other buzz words that scouts use.  

That's a really, really bad take. It's based on almost nothing.

First, what the batting order was on Day-1 should mean little, the landscape of the lineup then and now has changed greatly. Secondly, if the Cubs weren't patient with Shaw, he wouldn't be playing every single day. They have stuck with him, given him plenty of leeway. He's shown immense progress with the glove, and if you'd scroll back a page, you'd see all of the underlying data tied with mechanical tweaks. 

A good reminder, on July 8th last year that Pete Crow-Armstrong had a 52 wRC+ on July 8th last year, and Miguel Amaya had a 50 wRC+. Shaw has a 68, and unlike the two of them, the xData suggests he's been wildly unlucky (6th worst differential between BABIP and xBABIP and an xWOBA almost .40 points below what his wOBA is).

I'm not Jed Hoyer, but I'm very confident that you are 100% wrong on their patience. It's fans patience that wears thin, not the Cubs. They've shown a pretty strong aptitude in developing players over the last few years when I'm fairly certain on this time last year fans would have tossed PCA aside as well as Amaya. We can say today how stupid that would have been.

Edit: To add, if you want to see the Cubs lose patience with a player, see how they handled players like Matt Mervis who struggled, even during bad seasons. They dumped him real fast. Shaw? Not so much.

On the last bit; Jordan Wicks has been hurt for a year (and debuted strong), while Matt Shaw was never supposed to move this quickly. No scout on draft day had him in the MLB by OD 2025. You're being impatient. Both moved quick, Wicks dealt with unforseen injury luck (and has made considerable progress adding 2mph of velocity since his debut in 2023) and Shaw is doing what almost every good prospect in baseball does, struggle on their initial callup.

We gotta stop doing this. At this point, I almost hope the Cubs trade every single prospect at the deadline so we can at least skip this part of development.

[javy knows my name]

7 minutes ago, PeanutPunch33 said:

And I prefer 3rd basemen who can produce an exit velo over 83 mph... different strokes for different folks I guess 🤷‍♂️

If front offices behaved with your level of pants-shitting hysteria, PCA would be outta baseball by now

[PeanutPunch33]

1 minute ago, javy knows my name said:

If front offices behaved with your level of pants-shitting hysteria, PCA would be outta baseball by now

Claiming that a rookie with a 69 OPS+ and an 83 MPH exit velo shouldn't be playing every day for a team that is good enough everywhere else to win the World Series = "pants shitting hysteria".  Totally reasonable take 🙄

Prospect nut huggers are so funny to me.  Don't let me get in the way of you pretending every MLB prospect is the next PCA