Guardians (Bibee) vs Cubs (Imanaga): 7/2/25, 7:05pm

[Brandon Glick]

Fun fact: the only Guardians player with a home run off Shota is... Steven Kwan.

[Stratos]

Was looking at the stats of our relievers. They're a solid group but there's almost certainly going to be some significant regression there at some point.

The HR/FB is very low.  For most of our key guys they've given up zero HR or close to it.  Those ERAs are going to come up.

Edited July 2, 2025 by Stratos

[PeanutPunch33]

I was at the game last night, fun atmosphere.  After Seiya hit his HR it sounded like an explosion. 

I had pretty good seats, a couple rows behind Cubs dugout.  And I got to appreciate how hard Tommy Hottovy's job is.  How the hell can they tell if a pitch is a slider, changeup or fastball from that angle?  Or even if it's slightly outside?  It's just crazy how fast these guys throw.  It's a blur 

[Bertz]

12 minutes ago, Stratos said:

Was looking at the stats of our relievers. They're a solid group but there's almost certainly going to be some significant regression there at some point.

The HR/FB is very low.  For most of our key guys they've given up zero HR or close to it.  Those ERAs are going to come up.

Palencia might be able to escape the regression.  I believe there's been some research that confirms those really top end velo guys can maintain an artificially low HR/FB.

Otherwise though yeah the regression monster is coming at some point.  We're probably due another 2-3 series like the Seattle one.

[Bertz]

13 minutes ago, Bertz said:

Palencia might be able to escape the regression.  I believe there's been some research that confirms those really top end velo guys can maintain an artificially low HR/FB.

Otherwise though yeah the regression monster is coming at some point.  We're probably due another 2-3 series like the Seattle one.

Okay it's a slow workday and I got curious about this, I think this bears out.  I did some math and the distribution of HR/FB rates and velo looks fairly bell-curvey. 

I grabbed every pitcher season with more than 50 IP going back to 2010.  I threw out the guys who didn't throw a four seam fastball.  And then I bucketed every pitcher into bands and calculated the average HR/FB rate

<85 MPH - 10.7%

85-89 MPH - 11.7%

90-93 MPH - 11.9%

93-95 MPH - 11.5%

95-98 MPH - 11.2%

98-100 MPH - 10.0%

100+ MPH - 9.6%

It was quick and dirty analysis, for instance I didn't weight by IP, but it's pretty clear that broad strokes this is a thing.

[squally1313]

Stealing this from Matt Clapp on Twitter (isn't he someone here?) but Cubs position players are now #1 in offensive fWAR as a team. 

Pitching is 19th. 

[CubUgly]

1 hour ago, Stratos said:

Was looking at the stats of our relievers. They're a solid group but there's almost certainly going to be some significant regression there at some point.

The HR/FB is very low.  For most of our key guys they've given up zero HR or close to it.  Those ERAs are going to come up.

No doubt Statos - no way some of our guys keep this up.  It's just a matter of who and how well CC can manage the inevitable regression. 

[gflore34]

Watching a little of the Cardinals and Pirates, Gray going for the Cardinals, pure stuff wise Horton > Gray.  Big differentiator is location, Gray hits the corners, goes up and down, have yet to see FB middle-middle from Gray.  Gray did hang a slider which Pham smoked for an RBI single.  

[JBears79]

Off topic, but went to the game last night, holy hell have they significantly increased the price of concessions. I wasnt able to make it to a game last year since I live in Arizona now but i dont recall beers being 14 dollars. More like 11? 

Am I crazy and remembering better times or did the price of concessions skyrocket?

[PeanutPunch33]

The Cards getting swept by the Pirates would be hilarious. That’ll be a long flight to Chicago 

[CubUgly]

49 minutes ago, JBears79 said:

Off topic, but went to the game last night, holy hell have they significantly increased the price of concessions. I wasnt able to make it to a game last year since I live in Arizona now but i dont recall beers being 14 dollars. More like 11? 

Am I crazy and remembering better times or did the price of concessions skyrocket?

Beers were that or more in Houston this past weekend. 

[Bertz]

Scoreboard doing the Cubs a lot of favors right now.  Cardinals and Phillies losing comfortably, and the Brewers down now too.

[BKHoo]

16 minutes ago, PeanutPunch33 said:

The Cards getting swept by the Pirates would be hilarious. That’ll be a long flight to Chicago 

Let’s go Mets too. 

[chibears55]

57 minutes ago, JBears79 said:

Off topic, but went to the game last night, holy hell have they significantly increased the price of concessions. I wasnt able to make it to a game last year since I live in Arizona now but i dont recall beers being 14 dollars. More like 11? 

Am I crazy and remembering better times or did the price of concessions skyrocket?

Concessions everywhere in the Chicagoland area is crazy, no matter what event you go to.   It like they charge over 100% of what it actually cost them to buy.

All you gotta see is bottled water costing 7-10 bucks, you know youre going broke if you eat there.

[chibears55]

10 minutes ago, Bertz said:

Scoreboard doing the Cubs a lot of favors right now.  Cardinals and Phillies losing comfortably, and the Brewers down now too.

Be funny after all the belly aches about how the Cubs loss 4 games in the standings last week, theyre right back to being 5-6 up by end of the weekend. 

[Rcal10]

21 minutes ago, BKHoo said:

Let’s go Mets too. 

So much for that. Mets suck right now. Mets up 2-1 with one out in the 6th with a guy on first. Next 3 batters are left handed. Mets manager pulls the starter and brings in a right handed pen arm. Double, single, walk, grand slam. Brewers up by 4. 

[Rcal10]

20 minutes ago, chibears55 said:

Be funny after all the belly aches about how the Cubs loss 4 games in the standings last week, theyre right back to being 5-6 up by end of the weekend. 

Thats not going to happen. Brewers will be close behind. All year, IMO. 

[PeanutPunch33]

31 minutes ago, BKHoo said:

Let’s go Mets too. 

Wtf happened to the Mets lol. At this point they might not even be a playoff team

[Jason Ross]

1 minute ago, PeanutPunch33 said:

Wtf happened to the Mets lol. At this point they might not even be a playoff team

They'll probably be fine. Fangraphs has them at an 80% playoff team, 

[NorthsideAvenger]

14 minutes ago, PeanutPunch33 said:

Wtf happened to the Mets lol. At this point they might not even be a playoff team

Most of us were very annoy with the series versus Seattle but that series was still better than the Mets getting curb stomped by the Pirates.

[Bertz]

This is probably just a slump for the Mets, but they are SHREDDING their bullpen the last few weeks.  If I was a Mets fan I'd be a bit worried about how completely you can fix that mid-season.

[PeanutPunch33]

I think the Mets are what. 3 wins and 14 losses in their last 17.  Possibly worse than that.  And they have 2 more with the Brewers, Yankees, Orioles, Royals.  Pitching has been their strength all year and they aren’t getting it right now.  I think this could get real ugly for them if they don’t start winning soon. 

[Tryptamine]

Man, after last I couldn't help but think what could have been if Steele wasn't hurt. Steele/Shota/Boyd would have been a really strong top 3. Drop Taillon to #5, throw another guy in there like Lugo and that would have been a very deep very good rotation.

[Hot Sauce]

2 hours ago, JBears79 said:

Off topic, but went to the game last night, holy hell have they significantly increased the price of concessions. I wasnt able to make it to a game last year since I live in Arizona now but i dont recall beers being 14 dollars. More like 11? 

Am I crazy and remembering better times or did the price of concessions skyrocket?

You aren’t crazy. Concessions at Wrigley have always been fairly reasonable compared to other ballparks. They have seen a considerable hike.

[cubfansince77]

15 minutes ago, PeanutPunch33 said:

I think the Mets are what. 3 wins and 14 losses in their last 17.  Possibly worse than that.  And they have 2 more with the Brewers, Yankees, Orioles, Royals.  Pitching has been their strength all year and they aren’t getting it right now.  I think this could get real ugly for them if they don’t start winning soon. 

Yeah, the Mets are imploding right now. Beyond the pale how bad they are. Brewers drilled them in 1st game of doubleheader and will have a good shot at a sweep with their big rookie starting the 2nd game (Miz) I hate the Mets in general but I don't know what the hell has happened there....just brutal. I wonder if they regret signing Soto to all that money that could've bought 5-7 very good players instead. LOL.