Offseason Primer: The State of the Chicago Cubs' Outfield

21 minutes ago, Randy Holt said:

With the World Series officially in the rearview, Major League Baseball's offseason is upon us. The lockout looms, but as we act under the assumption that we'll still get some level of baseball next season, the Chicago Cubs will need to reconstruct their roster to try and keep pace with the new champion residing in their division.

Today, we'll take a look at the situation on the outfield grass, recapping their 2026, examining significant roster decisions, and attempt to map out how the team could address their soon-to-be shortcomings on either side of Pete Crow-Armstrong. 

Chicago Cubs' 2026 Outfield Recap

It'd probably be pretty easy to make the case that the Cubs' outfielders represented their best position group in 2026. Of course, having the runaway National League Most Valuable Player in Pete Crow-Armstrong holding things down in center certainly helps. He went for 45 homers, 41 steals, and drove his walk rate to more than double anything we'd seen in the two seasons prior (11.4 percent). Toss in his elite brand of defense and you have a player that finished at an obscene 10.6 fWAR. It's almost impossible to overstate just how good Crow-Armstrong was in 2026. 

It's not as if the two bookending him in the outfield were slouches, either. Ian Happ had the weaker season; while he posted a fourth consecutive 20+ home run campaign, his strikeout rate nearly touched 30 percent (29.7). His defense, though, was actually better by most metrics than it normally has been during this run of Gold Glove awards. Seiya Suzuki (somewhat quietly) had an exceptional year, with a 25-point bump in batting average (.270) wrought by some batted ball fortune (.330 BABIP) and a slight uptick in his characteristically strong walk rate (12.8 percent). That helped to compensate some for the fact that he lost nearly 30 points on his isolated power figure (.204). 

That trio was supplemented by some surprising quality on the bench as well. Michael Conforto didn't quite sustain the torrid pace he set forth in April, but his 119 wRC+ was his highest since 2021. Trade deadline acquisition Tyrone Taylor was quite good in his short time too, slashing .351/.390/.500 across roughly 80 plate appearances. Matt Shaw's offensive upside remains to be seen, but he was out there on regular occasions as well (when healthy). 

Ultimately, this was a very good phase of the roster that now faces a great deal of uncertainty in the coming months.

2027 Roster Decisions

• Ian Happ: Free Agent
• Seiya Suzuki: Free Agent
• Tyrone Taylor: Free Agent
• Michael Conforto: Free Agent

The situation for the Cubs in the outfield reads as fairly black and white. Two of their three starters are free agents. Their two primary supplementary bats are also set to test the market. Whether even one of these bats could return is anybody's guess and feeds into a number of questions. Could Happ find himself priced out of Chicago? Will the Cubs actually push to bring him back at all considering his glaring shortcomings and increasingly specific skill set (defense and occasional power)? Do they even have a remote chance of bringing back Seiya Suzuki? Could either of Taylor or Conforto return as bench pieces or might they try to latch on for more playing time elsewhere? 

There are decisions to be made here only in the sense of whether the Cubs would be willing to keep up with the potential spending of other teams, particularly in the cases of Happ & Suzuki. The outfield market in free agency is pretty bleak, so they might have a tough time doing so considering their much more glaring needs on the mound. 

2027 Outlook

Pete Crow-Armstrong is your starting center fielder, and that's kind of it. There are other bodies on the 40-man roster that could find themselves in the mix on some level. Shaw, Kevin Alcántara, BJ Murray Jr., and Justin Dean are still a part of the organization. Whether the Cubs are interested in handing the bulk of the time to any of those players, however, is also uncertain.

The organization likes Shaw, but it's difficult to see his limited offensive ceiling playing in an outfield corner on a full-time basis. Alcántara has tools & athleticism, but his alarming strikeout numbers make regular work for him unlikely. Murray's offensive output is varying levels of fine, but his outfield glove is pretty limited; he profiles more for the corner infield. Dean is a pure bench bat. 

Considering all of that, it's an outlook that reads rather bleak on either side of Crow-Armstrong. As such, if there are additions to be made to the positional side, they'll likely be in this phase before anywhere else, even accounting for the team's uncertainty behind the plate sans Carson Kelly.

What Might the Team Add to the Mix?

The Cubs need to look to add at least one everyday outfielder. Defense will be a priority for any addition, as the team features that as a pillar of their positional construction. That does leave the door open for either of Happ or Suzuki to return from a personnel standpoint, especially considering the latter's defensive rebound in 2026.

Beyond that? It's tough to project. Are they a player for someone like Teruaki Sato? Are they willing to sacrifice defense in the name of offensive upside and pursue a name like Randy Arozarena? Otherwise, it's the trade market where the team may have to dedicate some resources.

What the team could add to the mix is an easy proposition. The direction in which they will actually travel, however, is another matter entirely.

General Outlook

The 2027 outfield represents a difficult situation for Jed Hoyer to navigate. None of the non-Crow-Armstrong names on the 40-man inspire much confidence as an Opening Day option. There are too many limiting factors on the offensive side to allow for much appeal. The free agent market is questionable, at best. Trade targets will, of course, reveal themselves as the winter progresses on either side of the impending lockout, but the Cubs also aren't going to be the only team looking for some outfield help. There will be additions here, but exactly how the organization goes about acquiring them is a complete mystery.

Image courtesy of Mark J. Rebilas-Imagn Images

 

View full article

 

I don’t agree on Shaw and the narrative of his “limited offensive ceiling”. Shaw will be 25 in a week. He had a under 900 minor league AB where his OPS were well over 900. He has less around 600 major league AB so far in his career and hit 18 homers and performed pretty close to league average offensively. In limited time playing all over the field he was actually just above league average offensively this past season. How do you make an assessment on his offensive ceiling with so few AB? Especially when he did very well in the minors. Hell, Cam Smith played 2 years in right field with Houston with worse numbers than Shaw. Why can’t Shaw be a 110-115 wRC+ player going forward? He peaked at 24?