Cubs (Brown) vs Cardinals (Liberatore): 6/23/25, 6:45pm

[Wilson A2000]

Before tonight, Brown had the lowest starter FIP on the team. Best starter xFIP too. Second best pitching WAR. That‘s surprising. 

[Hot Sauce]

I haaaaaate losing to St. Louis! 

[Cubs206]

Well at least Milwaukee also lost 

[Geographyhater8888]

6 hours ago, Cubs206 said:

If it’s Ben Brown flush it down. Can’t wait to hear the apologists excuses for him now and why he’s still here losing games lol. It’s not a rebuilding year. 

His future is in the pen until he adds pitches that break horizontally and or and or he perfects his changeup and uses it more than 4% of the time.

 

too predictable and easy to square up and lay off any pitch off the edges of the k zone.

[Geographyhater8888]

6 hours ago, DYMNO said:

I'm well over Ben Brown as a starter, and even more over Dansby hitting any higher than 8th. That said, I firmly believe this team will be fine. Baseball is gonna baseball. 

 

 

At what point do you consider leading off PCA or Tucker to push Swanson into the 6 hole? PCA to leg out Happs double play ground outs, Tucker Suzuki and Busch with Swanson in the 6 hole?

Or do away with the pontoon splits altogether. Getting 2-3 at bats vs a righty in the 5 hole with Busch and maybe a lefty reliever is preferable over Swanson.

Edited June 24, 2025 by Geographyhater8888

[NorthsideAvenger]

I still believe in Brown. That is why I prefer him going to Iowa and not be used as trade bait.

Brown can be a weapon for the Cubs.

[Outshined_One]

I wouldn't complain if Brown got moved to the bullpen after Shota returns, even if it's temporary.

[Rcal10]

46 minutes ago, Outshined_One said:

I wouldn't complain if Brown got moved to the bullpen after Shota returns, even if it's temporary.

I wouldn’t complain either. But I think he goes to Iowa. They have Hodge and Imanaga coming back. I don’t see them being able to keep Brown on the team.  There really is no one they can send down. 

[Derwood]

Yankees and Tigers are both 3-7 over their last 10. Do you think their fans are all jumping off of bridges too?

[squally1313]

2 minutes ago, Derwood said:

Yankees and Tigers are both 3-7 over their last 10. Do you think their fans are all jumping off of bridges too?

Mets 1-9, though it's probably pretty likely that those fans are actually jumping off bridges.

(Tigers are actually 5-5, same as Cubs, but their subreddit as far as I can tell is just them being pumped about Javy being the leading CF vote getting for the ASG, which is pretty amazing/sweet. The Baez/PCA connections are insane.)

[Derwood]

Yes, 5-5, my bad. 

[UMFan83]

Ben Brown has a 1.126 OPS against his 3rd time through the order (albeit just 70 PA).  Of course his 1st and 2nd times aren't particularly great either (.801 and .765)

[Andy]

17 hours ago, Wilson A2000 said:

Before tonight, Brown had the lowest starter FIP on the team. Best starter xFIP too. Second best pitching WAR. That‘s surprising. 

I am not nearly smart enough to understand why Brown is so wildly underperforming his advanced numbers, I just know I'm growing tired of seeing how good they are every time he gets shelled.

[Ding Dong Johnson]

13 minutes ago, Andy said:

I am not nearly smart enough to understand why Brown is so wildly underperforming his advanced numbers, I just know I'm growing tired of seeing how good they are every time he gets shelled.

A couple things jump out to me. His FB velocity is down a little from last year and his barrel rate has jumped. Everyone is hitting him harder and pulling the ball.

[Jason Ross]

49 minutes ago, Andy said:

I am not nearly smart enough to understand why Brown is so wildly underperforming his advanced numbers, I just know I'm growing tired of seeing how good they are every time he gets shelled.

I think Ben Brown hits an interesting blind spot on some advanced data; he gets good whiff, good chase, doesn't "walk" a ton but gives up a ton of hard contact that stays in the ballpark. He's rocking bottom barrel hard hit, exit velocity and barrel rates. He's also got a pretty high BABIP against, one I don't feel is particularly "luck" based. 

Ben Brown has a tendency to just throw fastballs when he's behind in the count. And he leaves them in good places. Compare how Brown throws the zone when behind versus, say, Cade Horton. 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Brown is on the left and Horton is on the right. Horton, when he's behind, goes away from the zone far more often. He throws his slider down and out, and he's just not afraid to give up a ball. Ben Brown throws in a hittable zone and once he's down, it's almost all fastballs. Cade uses his other offerings more in the count when he's behind. 

You can see the approach difference in both. The guy on the right feels confident that he can throw strikes later in the count. The guy on the left feels like needs to "steal a strike" to get back to the knuckle curve. And as he tries to steal a strike, opposing hitters can sit fastball, hit the ball hard. For Brown lots of this lands in play for hits. But since xFIP ignores hits in play, it doesn't calculate this.

[DrCub]

10 hours ago, squally1313 said:

Mets 1-9, though it's probably pretty likely that those fans are actually jumping off bridges.

(Tigers are actually 5-5, same as Cubs, but their subreddit as far as I can tell is just them being pumped about Javy being the leading CF vote getting for the ASG, which is pretty amazing/sweet. The Baez/PCA connections are insane.)

I live in metro Detroit.  They are absolutely freaking the hell out.