2025 In-Season Cubs Top Prospect Lists Updates

[muntjack]

I think that sometimes these guys just need something to say.  

[Donzo]

I think Callis is giving Conrad the benefit of the doubt with his health. "If healthy", Conrad was looking like a top-10 pick. I would have a healthy Conrad at #3.

[JBears79]

I think he's at 7 right now for me.

Cassie

Mo Baller

Wiggins

Rojas

Alcantara

Long

Conrad

[Outshined_One]

I don't think any of the non-Conrad draft picks would make my Top 20 at this point (assuming everyone signs).  Kepley is borderline, but, Brett Bateman is at AA with a similar profile (lower ceiling, granted) and he's in my 20-30 range.  Reid is tempting, but I think he'll need an offseason in pitch lab to develop.  Wing and Hartshorn are also interesting, but it'll probably be a year or two before we can get meaningful reads on them.

 

[CaliforniaRaisin]

26 minutes ago, Outshined_One said:

I don't think any of the non-Conrad draft picks would make my Top 20 at this point (assuming everyone signs).  Kepley is borderline, but, Brett Bateman is at AA with a similar profile (lower ceiling, granted) and he's in my 20-30 range.  Reid is tempting, but I think he'll need an offseason in pitch lab to develop.  Wing and Hartshorn are also interesting, but it'll probably be a year or two before we can get meaningful reads on them.

 

I get the desire to compare them but Kepley had better in-game power than Bateman their junior years in college. Bateman had less slug (.408 vs. .444) and iso (.052 vs .153) while Bateman played in the UCLA/Oregon/USC-less B1G and Kepley played in the ACC. The Kepley at UNC would be an MLB starter, the Bateman so far in college and the minors is a 4th or 5th OF.

[CaliforniaRaisin]

 

[Jason Ross]

I'd have Conrad behind Caissie, Rojas, Ballesteros, Wiggins and Alcantara currently. I'd probably have him behind Long as well (the injury and lack of MiLB outweighs his positional upside). 

Kepley is probably among my back half of the top-20 somewhere. The floor is really solid, but I'm a little less sold on the ceiling. If you have him at 10+ home runs in the MLB, than there's Steve-Kwan-lite upside and he's probably closer to the 10-15 range, but I'm a little bearish. Reid sits in that "Honorable Mentions" portion of the top-20 where even if he sounds like an interesting arm, I'd like to see the changes before I jump him up. His draft-profile is probably "not-one-of-the-100 best prospects on paper" in a not-great draft, so I think he's intriguing, but I need to see it before I boost him that much. Both of those guys will likely get bumps when we lose 3-5 of the top-20, however.

[We Got The Whole 9]

I'm assuming a PCA-Tucker led team probably maxes out our payroll for the next decade so we will be happy to plug some holes with this college class relatively quickly and cheaply. That's what I am sticking to. It is the most boring draft I can recall us having. 

[craig]

On 7/15/2025 at 12:25 PM, JBears79 said:

I think he's at 7 right now for me.....

I'd put Conrad at 5, ahead of Alcantara and probably Long also.  Kantro talked him up as 5-tool guy, who can play center, and might be a serious hitter with serious power.  Will he actually click?  I don't know.  But Kantro's 1st-round bats have jumped into Cubs top-5 pretty quickly, so I'm thinking there's a legit chance that Conrad will be really good.  

I like Kevin and he's got a chance to be a good player.  But his swing is long, and he's never really excelled a hitter, and he's never hit many HR's.  So personally I'm going with Kantro's choice who hasn't failed yet.  I'd rather trade Kevin that trade Conrad, myself. 

I'm also putting Conrad ahead of Long just for the speed and positional value.  And potential to be a big HR-hitter seems larger, too.   

 

[craig]

I'm thinking I'd put Hartshorn into my top-10, right after Long in my list.  Ahead of guys like Hernandez, or Birdsell. I tend to like to put guys who have high ceiling and haven't failed yet variably high, ahead of guys with know limits or proven areas of weakness.  

Popping him right into my top ten. Guy who might have big-time easy power, but might also possibly be a true-blue hitter besides, I like that possibility.  Ahead of Birdsell and Triantos and Tomas type guys.  

[craig]

Silly add-on note.  We all use different considerations when ranking, between upside, risk, proximity, etc..  One of my "gut" inputs is "how much would I mind if this guy got traded, or had a career-ending injury...".   I'm kinda feeling like Conrad and Hartshorn, both of these guys have the possibility to become good, long-term asset middle-of-the-lineup assets.  (I'm guessing Hartshorn is going to get a signing bonus that's quite high, and reflects Kantro's interest...).  I don't quite have that same feel for Kevin, based on his bat, so I don't have "could-be-trading-away-a-star" feeling with him.  I totally get it, that if we have Hartshorn for a while, and he's K'ing like Felix Cruz and Tomas, I might lose hope kinda abruptly.  But not until some flaw gets exposed.  

[craig]

On 7/15/2025 at 1:21 PM, CaliforniaRaisin said:

I get the desire to compare them but Kepley had better in-game power than Bateman their junior years in college. Bateman had less slug (.408 vs. .444) and iso (.052 vs .153) while Bateman played in the UCLA/Oregon/USC-less B1G and Kepley played in the ACC. The Kepley at UNC would be an MLB starter, the Bateman so far in college and the minors is a 4th or 5th OF.

I get the small-man profile analogy.  But just because Bateman and Southisene haven't hit doesn't mean Kepley won't.  Late July, Bateman has 6 XBH with 0.040 ISO, only 13 SB.  Hopefully Kepley just hits more hits, more doubles, and does more steals.   Law or somebody said Kepley's exit-velo/hard-hit were only barely below average.  Media rankers, who talk to scouts, all like him; that was never true for Bateman.  That Kantro burned a 2nd-round pick and ~$1.5M (or whatever) suggests he thinks he'll Kepley will get hits.  I'm going to try to believe until he shows we shouldn't.  

[Tryptamine]

16 hours ago, craig said:

I get the small-man profile analogy.  But just because Bateman and Southisene haven't hit doesn't mean Kepley won't.  Late July, Bateman has 6 XBH with 0.040 ISO, only 13 SB.  Hopefully Kepley just hits more hits, more doubles, and does more steals.   Law or somebody said Kepley's exit-velo/hard-hit were only barely below average.  Media rankers, who talk to scouts, all like him; that was never true for Bateman.  That Kantro burned a 2nd-round pick and ~$1.5M (or whatever) suggests he thinks he'll Kepley will get hits.  I'm going to try to believe until he shows we shouldn't.  

Basically this. He should have earned everyone's trust at this point. 

edit: To be fair, I don't see it at all with Kepley either, but he's had multiple picks that I didn't see it working and yet they did.

Edited July 17, 2025 by Tryptamine

[Outshined_One]

Regarding Kepley, I've come to the realization that I have a visceral dislike for hitters with similar profiles. I've tried to rationalize it, but frankly, plenty of guys like him have succeeded in the majors, and diversifying talent in your system is never a bad thing. Maybe it's due to my disgust with the years of people fawning over David Eckstein or Juan Pierre? No idea.

I'm unquestionably rooting for the guy, though.

[Jason Ross]

1 minute ago, Outshined_One said:

Regarding Kepley, I've come to the realization that I have a visceral dislike for hitters with similar profiles. I've tried to rationalize it, but frankly, plenty of guys like him have succeeded in the majors, and diversifying talent in your system is never a bad thing. Maybe it's due to my disgust with the years of people fawning over David Eckstein or Juan Pierre? No idea.

I'm unquestionably rooting for the guy, though.

Yeah, his profile isn't my favorite either. I think what it comes down to is that it's just hard to dream on those guys. Like if Kepley was Kepley but was, 6"1? You could dream on something. But his size and age just means this is who he is, and you've got to really believe in it to love it. 

I made some comments prior about how Nico Hoerner on draft day wasn't overly exciting and wasn't my favorite pick, too. Over half a decade later, and it's clear he's a major win and among the best picks in the entire draft. Kepley kind of has that ability, too. Less likely to get there; if he was, he'd have been drafted higher, ranked higher, and given more slot than he'll get, but there's a not-so-crazy world in three years where Kepley is starting in CF for someone, has a 95 wRC+ and is a plus-defender in CF and on the bases and everyone goes "man, he's pretty damn good!"

(either that or whatever team he's starting for is trying to trade him every offseason like they do Hoerner. Nothing in between)

[CaliforniaRaisin]

 

[CubinNY]

I don’t see how anyone could put Conrad in the top 10z 

[Bertz]

4 minutes ago, CubinNY said:

I don’t see how anyone could put Conrad in the top 10z 

You probably need glasses then

[Donzo]

14 minutes ago, CubinNY said:

I don’t see how anyone could put Conrad in the top 10z 

It's very easy when looking at his skill set- the Cubs think of him as a 5-tool CF.

He may have been the first, or 2nd after Arquette, college position player picked if he didn't hurt his shoulder.

[CubinNY]

15 minutes ago, Bertz said:

You probably need glasses then

So he’s a a borderline top 100? Shiny new toy. 

[Post Count Padder]

I mean, yeah he sneaks into the back half of the top 10, sure. The ranking is basically your favorite order of: Ballesteros, Alcantara, Caissie, Wiggins, Rojas and then after that it's pretty open. Lotta guys with upside but also warts. No reason to think our 1st rounder the FO and some talking heads really like couldn't get into the top 10 right now. Triantos is a bat only guy with minimal power who isn't hitting. Birdsell has been hurt most of the year. Long doesn't have a defensive home. Etc. Etc. Etc.

[NorthsideAvenger]

54 minutes ago, Bertz said:

You probably need glasses then

Is it fair to put a 2025 first round pick (one who is currently injured) in the top ten before we know how he adjust to pro ball?

 

[CaliforniaRaisin]

46 minutes ago, CubinNY said:

So he’s a a borderline top 100? Shiny new toy. 

No? Being in the top 10, even 5th isn't borderline top 100. This isn't the Cubs system of 2023. 

The Cubs only have 3 slam dunk top 100 prospects per most major publications - Ballesteros, Caissie and Rojas (some have Alcántara or Wiggins in their top 100s too). Ranking Conrad 5th or later doesn't mean he near the top 100 yet.

[CaliforniaRaisin]

9 minutes ago, NorthsideAvenger said:

Is it fair to put a 2025 first round pick (one who is currently injured) in the top ten before we know how he adjust to pro ball?

 

Yes, it's fair.

[Bertz]

If you look at the last round of prospect voting, the most common #10 prospect was Cole Mathis.  For those keeping score at home, that's last year's second round pick who has played less than 30 games since being drafted around injuries (and not been crazy impressive games on the field).