Dodgers (May) vs Cubs (Imanaga): 4/22/25, 6:40pm

[mul21]

1 hour ago, Jason Ross said:

He's not ready - that's the profile of someone struggling with pitch recognition. He's making good contact when he hits it, but he's chasing a ton and whiffing a ton. There really isn't a creative option right now. But the Cubs shouldn't force it - just play Berti. He's fine. The offense is doing great. The Cubs don't need to try to ruin a Cowles (who's still learning Triple-A) or force a 1b to play 3b in Johnny Long. 

Matt Shaw should hopefully be back in a few weeks. 

Do you have a subscription to get the graphics?

[Jason Ross]

17 minutes ago, Rcal10 said:

How about BJ Murray? He is playing 3rd in AA. Won’t disrupt Shaw working at Iowa and gives the Cubs a guy they can play there a bit. He isn’t a high ranked prospect but maybe he does for the Cubs what Morel did when he wasn’t a high ranked prospect and was brought straight from AA, but can also field at 3rd. It isn’t like he has to do much to replace Workman. Plus, Brujan might be hurt again. 

BJ Murray was horrible in Iowa last year. He had a 72 wRC+ with all of the batted ball data to suggest he was every bit that bad. He wouldn't be the first prospect to find his footing eventually, surely, But let's put it this way: Gage Workman, in Double-A, posted a 142 wRC+. Then he skipped Triple-A. And he had, supposedly a good glove. How's that working out?

BJ Murray is the same age, repeating Double-A and doesn't have a good glove. He failed badly at Triple-A as well. 

There is literally zero reason the Cubs should give a PA to Murray at the MLB level right now. Murray needs to continue to hit at Knoxville, then show up to Iowa and show that the numbers last year are behind him before he becomes viable. Impossible? Certainly not. But that's beyond desperation at this stage for a team who doesn't need desperation.

[Jason Ross]

6 minutes ago, mul21 said:

Do you have a subscription to get the graphics?

I do! TJ Stats has a Patreon page that also allows you access to his app. His app uses fangraphs and MiLB statcast data to generate these plots for every player in Triple-A and in the Florida League (the only other league with accessible Statcast), Runs $10 a month with a $5 first month discount. I use them a lot because of the articles and the podcast I do through here, so for me, I can say fully worth it.

[gflore34]

Until Shaw returns Berti might be the best option, believe the Cubs can be reasonably confident he'll make all the plays he should.  Which is all the Cubs need at the moment.

[CubinNY]

It’s exciting and all but they have to get the pen stabilized. Just throw strikes. It’s obviously easier than that, but if I’m Counsell that’s what I tell them. If you can’t get them out by throwing strikes you can’t pitch for the Cubs. 

[gflore34]

1 minute ago, CubinNY said:

It’s exciting and all but they have to get the pen stabilized. Just throw strikes. It’s obviously easier than that, but if I’m Counsell that’s what I tell them. If you can’t get them out by throwing strikes you can’t pitch for the Cubs. 

Simple but, true, just, for horsefeathers's sake, throw strikes.

[Bertz]

6 minutes ago, gflore34 said:

Until Shaw returns Berti might be the best option, believe the Cubs can be reasonably confident he'll make all the plays he should.  Which is all the Cubs need at the moment.

Yeah I don't know why we're overthinking this.  Berti is solid and can totally hold down the position for a few weeks.

[Jason Ross]

8 minutes ago, gflore34 said:

Until Shaw returns Berti might be the best option, believe the Cubs can be reasonably confident he'll make all the plays he should.  Which is all the Cubs need at the moment.

Exactly this. I appreciate the idea of a creative solution for a straight forward problem, but I don't think the Cubs need creativity here. Jon Berti is...fine. His xwOBA is .324 currently. suggesting some unlucky outcomes, he adds base running and he's a fine fielder. A star? No. But the Cubs are getting well above average offensive contributions across the board and Berti can stabilize. That's all they need right now. 

Just go be a 90 wRC+ hitter, a somewhat positive fielder, and steal bases for a few weeks. Let Shaw work on his timing (his timing still seems off in Iowa; he's just a little disconnected right now) and when he gets it back together, you go back to Matt. 

Straightforward solution for a straightforward problem. 

[Stratos]

1 hour ago, Jason Ross said:

He's not ready - that's the profile of someone struggling with pitch recognition. He's making good contact when he hits it, but he's chasing a ton and whiffing a ton. There really isn't a creative option right now. But the Cubs shouldn't force it - just play Berti. He's fine. The offense is doing great. The Cubs don't need to try to ruin a Cowles (who's still learning Triple-A) or force a 1b to play 3b in Johnny Long. 

Matt Shaw should hopefully be back in a few weeks. 

Have to bring somebody up if Workman is sent somewhere.  Not sure who it would be. 

[Jason Ross]

3 minutes ago, Stratos said:

Have to bring somebody up if Workman is sent somewhere.  Not sure who it would be. 

Workman kind of sucks right now, but he can relax on the bench for a few weeks. It's either Workman or a different flavor of Workman. The Cubs saw something in him to take him in the Rule V and in ST. He doesn't really need to play much, they've proven they can tote a Mastrobuoni or a Torrens on the bench and we'll barely notice them.

Promoting Ben Cowles, who has work to do and can be something more, just to sit on the bench in lieu of that being Workman is change for change's sake. Maybe there's value in that, but I wouldn't expect that value to really be noticed on the field as much.

[We Got The Whole 9]

14 minutes ago, Jason Ross said:

Exactly this. I appreciate the idea of a creative solution for a straight forward problem, but I don't think the Cubs need creativity here. Jon Berti is...fine. His xwOBA is .324 currently. suggesting some unlucky outcomes, he adds base running and he's a fine fielder. A star? No. But the Cubs are getting well above average offensive contributions across the board and Berti can stabilize. That's all they need right now. 

Just go be a 90 wRC+ hitter, a somewhat positive fielder, and steal bases for a few weeks. Let Shaw work on his timing (his timing still seems off in Iowa; he's just a little disconnected right now) and when he gets it back together, you go back to Matt. 

Straightforward solution for a straightforward problem. 

Shaw is still making poor contact. I'm thinking he is still feeling some lingering pain.

[Jason Ross]

Just now, We Got The Whole 9 said:

Shaw is still making poor contact. I'm thinking he is still feeling some lingering pain.

I can't speak to his pain, but he seems disconnected from his top half and his bottom half. One concern with his leg motion is that there's a lot going on with his timing. He picks the foot up, it slides forward, his body shifts his hands his moves his body forward...it's part of the reason he hits the ball hard. But with moving pieces creates potential glitches in the system. 

So it could be a pain thing but it could just be a mechanical thing. From my stand point, it feels like he's slow...like his timing mechanism is off. He was hitting the ball hard for a few games once he got back stateside, but there were some games the balls weren't landing. I kind of think it's a mental thing and a mechanical thing, but like I said, can't speak to the pain, so it could be that too. 

Once the lower half and the top half are in sync I think he'll get it together. 

[ILMindState]

Who cares about defense lineup: Carson Kelly 1B, Michael Busch 3B, bring up Mo Baller as your new backup catcher.

[Rcal10]

1 hour ago, Jason Ross said:

BJ Murray was horrible in Iowa last year. He had a 72 wRC+ with all of the batted ball data to suggest he was every bit that bad. He wouldn't be the first prospect to find his footing eventually, surely, But let's put it this way: Gage Workman, in Double-A, posted a 142 wRC+. Then he skipped Triple-A. And he had, supposedly a good glove. How's that working out?

BJ Murray is the same age, repeating Double-A and doesn't have a good glove. He failed badly at Triple-A as well. 

There is literally zero reason the Cubs should give a PA to Murray at the MLB level right now. Murray needs to continue to hit at Knoxville, then show up to Iowa and show that the numbers last year are behind him before he becomes viable. Impossible? Certainly not. But that's beyond desperation at this stage for a team who doesn't need desperation.

I didn’t realize how bad Murray has been. But I wasn’t suggesting bringing him up for Workman, I was suggesting him in the event Brujan was hurt. I am fine just going with Berti at 3rd. But if Brujan got hurt again last night and they need to bring someone up I don’t want them to disrupt any of the actual higher rated prospects, so in lieu of one of them, I thought Murray. Of Brujan is ok, just keep it rolling and go Berti most days. But if he is hurt, who do they bring up? 

[Jason Ross]

4 minutes ago, Rcal10 said:

I didn’t realize how bad Murray has been. But I wasn’t suggesting bringing him up for Workman, I was suggesting him in the event Brujan was hurt. I am fine just going with Berti at 3rd. But if Brujan got hurt again last night and they need to bring someone up I don’t want them to disrupt any of the actual higher rated prospects, so in lieu of one of them, I thought Murray. Of Brujan is ok, just keep it rolling and go Berti most days. But if he is hurt, who do they bring up? 

We'd have to get pretty deep into the injury red for Murray to be viable. I suspect if he did go down again, the Cubs would either find the Drew-Pomeranz of utility guys, or go with an Alcantara or Franklin (probably the former as he's on the 40). A few weeks of Kevin on the bench, working his way in to CF a few times won't hurt him long term and the Cubs have been open to that idea of letting him learn some as they go. He's more ready than guys like Cowles or Murray and I do think there's positives of being around an MLB team.

Finally was able to get Murray's 2024 statcast for emphasis (I wanted to post this in the first one, but wasn't able to get it into it)

[17 Seconds]

I'm so excited about pca. That could become an all-time great cubs trade

[Tryptamine]

3 hours ago, Jason Ross said:

He's not ready - that's the profile of someone struggling with pitch recognition. He's making good contact when he hits it, but he's chasing a ton and whiffing a ton. There really isn't a creative option right now. But the Cubs shouldn't force it - just play Berti. He's fine. The offense is doing great. The Cubs don't need to try to ruin a Cowles (who's still learning Triple-A) or force a 1b to play 3b in Johnny Long. 

Matt Shaw should hopefully be back in a few weeks. 

I'm so disappointed that all the plate discipline gains that made Cowles an exciting piece to get in last year's trade have basically evaporated. I had myself convinced that he had to the potential to be a budget  Ben Zobrist.

[Jason Ross]

4 minutes ago, Tryptamine said:

I'm so disappointed that all the plate discipline gains that made Cowles an exciting piece to get in last year's trade have basically evaporated. I had myself convinced that he had to the potential to be a budget  Ben Zobrist.

I still think he can be alright. He missed some real time last year, and is up to a new level. The hope is that as he settles into Iowa, pitch recognition will come with experience. The good news is that when he hits the ball, real damage occurs. If he can just be "alright" with pitch recog...could be good bench guy. 

[mul21]

@Jason Ross any thoughts in particular on Hollowell?  The funk and velocity are nice but the raw numbers in Iowa aren't great and he got squared up pretty well by the last 2 hitters he faced last night.

[Jason Ross]

14 minutes ago, mul21 said:

@Jason Ross any thoughts in particular on Hollowell?  The funk and velocity are nice but the raw numbers in Iowa aren't great and he got squared up pretty well by the last 2 hitters he faced last night.

So, he's someone who doesn't throw a lot of strikes on the surface. Hollowell is a bit like Eli Morgan - he limits hard contact by generating lots of chase. They do it a bit differently, but it's a similar outcome.

When Hollowell is in the zone, you can get some swings on him; we saw that last night. Hollowell was clearly looking to throw strikes (he was in the zone more than normal). He's fastball-sweeper heavy - that sweeper needs to get off the plate and chase. He gave up EV's of 107 (xBA of .640), 99, 96 in his two innings Granted, these were against two players who likely end in Cooperstown (Freeman and Betts) and Edman (who's on a heater) so a little can be explained by that. But I think you get the idea; Hollowell in the zone probably isn't his home. 

This are his total pitches thrown and his chase last night (pitches in the bold received swings) You'll, his o-zone pitches were generally "waste" pitches...no one is really going that far out of the zone to go get those. His sweeper sat in the zone a bit. His fastballs were mostly centercut. 

If you can generate chase with Hollowell, if he can sit that sweeper on the outside against RHP there's a guy who can be used. His arm angle as Matt outlined in his article yesterday is funky, so deception is his friend. I don't think the Cubs have a back end guy, but if you told me he was Tyson Ross who threw a bit harder, I'd believe you.

[Rcal10]

1 hour ago, Jason Ross said:

We'd have to get pretty deep into the injury red for Murray to be viable. I suspect if he did go down again, the Cubs would either find the Drew-Pomeranz of utility guys, or go with an Alcantara or Franklin (probably the former as he's on the 40). A few weeks of Kevin on the bench, working his way in to CF a few times won't hurt him long term and the Cubs have been open to that idea of letting him learn some as they go. He's more ready than guys like Cowles or Murray and I do think there's positives of being around an MLB team.

Finally was able to get Murray's 2024 statcast for emphasis (I wanted to post this in the first one, but wasn't able to get it into it)

Actually considering no infielder is a good option, maybe Alcantara or Franklin makes sense in the event of an injury. I mean if it was Alcantara they may even be able to get him in a few games. Maybe a lefty starts and Alcantara gets in a game for PCA. Maybe he gets in another one to replace Happ and give him a day off. I think if he did come up they might play him a few times during his stay. Which might not be a bad thing. 

[Stratos]

2 minutes ago, Rcal10 said:

Actually considering no infielder is a good option, maybe Alcantara or Franklin makes sense in the event of an injury. I mean if it was Alcantara they may even be able to get him in a few games. Maybe a lefty starts and Alcantara gets in a game for PCA. Maybe he gets in another one to replace Happ and give him a day off. I think if he did come up they might play him a few times during his stay. Which might not be a bad thing. 

I don't think Alcantara should come up unless he's starting.