Levine: Jesus Luzardo Deal With Cubs Is "Dead"

[Bertz]

Rumors around Jesus Luzardo were so hot and heavy over the last week that a deal was beginning to feel inevitable. Apparently not as Bruce Levine, who has been most plugged into this potential deal, declares that it's currently "dead."

Luzardo has an extensive injury history, including major back issues in 2024. It's possible that medicals scuttled a deal either directly or indirectly by making it difficult for the clubs to align on a price that properly weighed the risk/reward.

It's also hard not to view this in conjunction with yesterday's Cody Bellinger trade. While not simply "the cheap option", Luzardo was one of the lowest salary starting pitching options on the market. Did Jed Hoyer's newfound infusion of cash open up more attractive opportunities? Or did Hoyer push to free up cash as a response to this deal dying on the vine?

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[jersey cubs fan]

Major back issues in 2025 would be a good reason to avoid this guy, imo

[Dfan25]

Interesting to see where they pivot now 

[Bertz]

Bummed, I liked Luzardo quite a bit.  But with the medicals feeling like the likely culprit here hard not to defer to the team on this.

Walker Buehler feels like the likely alternative.  One of the Padres' guys would be the really fun alternative.  Even after the Bellinger trade not sure you can allocate more than $15Mish to SP, so not even going to bother eying Burnes, Flaherty, or Pivetta.

Hopefully there's another fun SP available in trade that's just not getting much ink.  Someone like Mackenzie Gore?  Among less notable FAs Patrick Sandoval feels like the most obvious pitch lab candidate on the market, so while I'm hoping for more obvious oomf in the next add he might be the savvy play as this year's Sean Manaea.

[Jason Ross]

Curious to see the pivot. I feel like it'll be Buehler, they seem to like him and he feels like the RH version of Luzardo - upside, but also injury history and a poor(ish) 2024 that gives you cause for concern. 

[Rcal10]

9 minutes ago, 1908_Cubs said:

Curious to see the pivot. I feel like it'll be Buehler, they seem to like him and he feels like the RH version of Luzardo - upside, but also injury history and a poor(ish) 2024 that gives you cause for concern. 

Considering I mentioned Beuhler about 2 hours ago as someone I felt was a better option than Luzardo, I completely agree with you. But he might cost $15M so cubs would be down to about $25M to spend after signing him. So is it Yates for $12M, Minter for $6M and one bench bat/back uo 1st and 3rd baseman? Seems that is doable. 

[Jason Ross]

7 minutes ago, Rcal10 said:

Considering I mentioned Beuhler about 2 hours ago as someone I felt was a better option than Luzardo, I completely agree with you. But he might cost $15M so cubs would be down to about $25M to spend after signing him. So is it Yates for $12M, Minter for $6M and one bench bat/back uo 1st and 3rd baseman? Seems that is doable. 

And would make sense as to why the money mattered so much in the Bellinger trade. 

[Rcal10]

7 minutes ago, 1908_Cubs said:

And would make sense as to why the money mattered so much in the Bellinger trade. 

Yep. They still have enough money even if they do pay $15M for a pitcher. I think the bigger issue is they dont want to pay that guy multiple years. Maybe 2 at most. If they are going to make  a serious run at Tucker, and I think they will, they don’t want that contract on the books. That is why 1 or at most 2 years of Buehler makes sense. . 

[Transmogrified Tiger]

I kinda wonder how much the Luzardo pursuit was about making sure they weren't stuck if Bellinger couldn't be traded, since he is on the low end of AAVs for reasonably available SP targets.

[Bertz]

13 minutes ago, Transmogrified Tiger said:

I kinda wonder how much the Luzardo pursuit was about making sure they weren't stuck if Bellinger couldn't be traded, since he is on the low end of AAVs for reasonably available SP targets.

Yeah it's really hard to not tie this news and the Bellinger trade together.  Especially hearing from Cashman earlier that Jed insisted on finalizing a Bellinger trade yesterday with or without the Yankees.

Edited December 19, 2024 by Bertz

[Rcal10]

15 minutes ago, Bertz said:

Yeah it's really hard to not tie this news and the Bellinger trade together.  Especially hearing from Cashman earlier that Jed insisted on finalizing a Bellinger trade yesterday with or without the Yankees.

So then backing out of Luzardo is a good thing for the Cubs. If they were on him because he was a cheap option that was because Jed may not have thought he could get rid of as much of Bellinger’s salary as he eventually got rid of. So pivoting from Luzardo may mean he does like someone else more and now he has the money to spend on that pitcher. I guess we will find out soon”ish”. 

[Stratos]

Maybe they turn to another trade opportunity.  Buehler is fine in a bubble but having 2 recovering TJS guys with Boyd is not ideal.  Limited IP and more performance unknowns.

[Rcal10]

13 minutes ago, Stratos said:

Maybe they turn to another trade opportunity.  Buehler is fine in a bubble but having 2 recovering TJS guys with Boyd is not ideal.  Limited IP and more performance unknowns.

A trade is a possibility, but that would entail trading prospects. Beuhler only cost money. 

[javy knows my name]

Sounds like this deal was a shart

[We Got The Whole 9]

They probably insisted on Caissie or Alcantara and he's not worth that coming off of the season he had and the questions of his health.

[Tim]

My assumption was they got to medicals and the Cubs didn't like them.

[Cuzi]

I'm fine with this. The entire premise of trading a top 100 prospect for a pitcher that always seems to have arm issues, and just had back issues as well, never made sense to me. 2 years is not enough control for me to take a shot on that. When the inevitable happens and his arm falls off, you just traded a very valuable trade chip for a guy who you got 2 months out of and will never pitch for you again.

[Rcal10]

5 hours ago, Cuzi said:

I'm fine with this. The entire premise of trading a top 100 prospect for a pitcher that always seems to have arm issues, and just had back issues as well, never made sense to me. 2 years is not enough control for me to take a shot on that. When the inevitable happens and his arm falls off, you just traded a very valuable trade chip for a guy who you got 2 months out of and will never pitch for you again.

I am fine with this as well. I think this was a fallback in the event the Cubs had to eat more of Bellinger’s contract. Once they don’t have to eat much if it he may have become less appealing to the Cubs. They can aim higher and spend more on a pitcher. I love your idea on Cease. The issue is I really think he would only be for one year. And who do you have to trade for him for one year? 

[Brock Beauchamp]

10 hours ago, jersey cubs fan said:

Major back issues in 2025 would be a good reason to avoid this guy, imo

Also heard he's going to lose a leg in 26.

[CubinNY]

49 minutes ago, Brock Beauchamp said:

Also heard he's going to lose a leg in 26.

I heard he passed out at 31 flavors and they had to call an ambulance. 

[gflore34]

Probably the medicals coupled with the Marlins having a unreasonably high price tag, good, he wasn't worth Cassie or Alcantara.

[Rcal10]

Just now, gflore34 said:

Probably the medicals coupled with the Marlins having a unreasonably high price tag, good, he wasn't worth Cassie or Alcantara.

Could have been all of that on top of the Cubs deciding they had more money than they thought they did so they didn’t have to trade a prospect for a high ceiling, high injury risk, lower salaried pitcher. 

[We Got The Whole 9]

Had an article pop up on my feed saying the Yankees should trade for Tristan McKenzie and I'm low-key hoping Carter beats em to the punch, but maybe there won't be room for him. 

[Cuzi]

7 minutes ago, We Got The Whole 9 said:

Had an article pop up on my feed saying the Yankees should trade for Tristan McKenzie and I'm low-key hoping Carter beats em to the punch, but maybe there won't be room for him. 

I was just thinking about him or Logan Allen the other day and came to the conclusion of nope. I was looking for someone MLB worthy they could ask for in addition to make the trade worth it in a go for it year and nothing stood out.

Edited December 19, 2024 by Cuzi

[Rcal10]

31 minutes ago, Cuzi said:

I was just thinking about him or Logan Allen the other day and came to the conclusion of nope. I was looking for someone MLB worthy they could ask for in addition to make the trade worth it in a go for it year and nothing stood out.

It is really hard to find good fits. The teams who do have pitching want major league talent back. I think the Cubs want to deal from their minor league talent. 
Maybe the Rays? They seem to be an organization that thinks outside the box at times. Bradley, Littell, Baz? 🤷

Cubs seem to have a good working relationship with their FO. Maybe something can happen here?

Keller is also available but not sure he would be a guy then ubs are looking for. Plus it is hard to trade in the division.!

Edited December 19, 2024 by Rcal10