Winter Meetings thread

[Jason Ross]

1 minute ago, thawv said:

Thaiss 208/313/342 wRC+ 83

Kelly 224/307/373 wRC+ 85

 

For the cost, is it really necessary to "upgrade?"  To me it's an insignificant upgrade for the cost. 

One of them is a good defensive player and the other isn't. Defense matters.

[Cuzi]

2 minutes ago, thawv said:

Thaiss 208/313/342 wRC+ 83

Kelly 224/307/373 wRC+ 85

 

For the cost, is it really necessary to "upgrade?"  To me it's an insignificant upgrade for the cost. 

Maybe because you are only looking at offensive numbers when it comes to the catching position. Kelly is one of the better defensive catchers in the game. He's a pretty big upgrade over Thaiss who is not particularly good at anything except blocking.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

1 minute ago, thawv said:

Thaiss 208/313/342 wRC+ 83

Kelly 224/307/373 wRC+ 85

 

For the cost, is it really necessary to "upgrade?"  To me it's an insignificant upgrade for the cost. 

Kelly is dramatically better defensively, and he's reached much higher offensive heights.  Kelly has 3 seasons of starter-level playing time and at least a 99 wRC+, and his wRC+ since leaving St. Louis(where he only got 131 PA across 3 seasons) is 90.  Thaiss has never exceeded an 86 wRC+ in any season, but been more consistent about that 80s level.

[WhyCantWeWin]

That kelly deal better not be more than 10 mil or longer than a 1 year deal

[Jason Ross]

Just now, WhyCantWeWin said:

That kelly deal better not be more than 10 mil or longer than a 1 year deal

Based on the other catcher deals, I think it's fair to expect something that is around two years (possibly with one of those mutual deals which acts as a buyout) with a total number between $12-$14m. That's probably fine. 

[thawv]

5 minutes ago, 1908_Cubs said:

One of them is a good defensive player and the other isn't. Defense matters.

But how much are they going to be catching?  Yes, Kelly is the better defensive catcher.  I'd think he's getting about 6 million.  I don't think the upgrade outweighs the cost.  The budget is extremely tight. 

[thawv]

7 minutes ago, Cuzi said:

Maybe because you are only looking at offensive numbers when it comes to the catching position. Kelly is one of the better defensive catchers in the game. He's a pretty big upgrade over Thaiss who is not particularly good at anything except blocking.

this is true.  I just don't think the cost is worth it on such a tight budget.

[Bertz]

5 minutes ago, Transmogrified Tiger said:

Kelly is dramatically better defensively, and he's reached much higher offensive heights.  Kelly has 3 seasons of starter-level playing time and at least a 99 wRC+, and his wRC+ since leaving St. Louis(where he only got 131 PA across 3 seasons) is 90.  Thaiss has never exceeded an 86 wRC+ in any season, but been more consistent about that 80s level.

Kelly has also had his fair share of injuries which have dragged his performance down.  Now that's not a good thing obviously, but it does give you optimism that in a situation where he's being asked to carry ~50% of the load instead of ~75% you're more likely to get fresher legs and that higher level offense.

[Jason Ross]

1 minute ago, thawv said:

But how much are they going to be catching?  Yes, Kelly is the better defensive catcher.  I'd think he's getting about 6 million.  I don't think the upgrade outweighs the cost.  The budget is extremely tight. 

Amaya caught in 117 games last year but wasn't particularly good. With any sort of injury to Amaya, or if he doesn't hit like he did in July or August it's probably pretty likely that Kelly catches 60--80- games next year (barring health). 

Thaiss sucks. Kelly is useful. His $7m or whatever deal is likely just fine. The Cubs aren't so hard up for money they don't have that in the budget. 

[Bertz]

2 minutes ago, thawv said:

this is true.  I just don't think the cost is worth it on such a tight budget.

This is easily the most cost efficient upgrade they can make on the roster by virtue of the replacement level roster filler he's displacing.

[SOFNR]

Yah, I wish they were aiming higher at one of the few spots they can really add. But Thaiss is maybe replacement level. Kelly projects to 1.7 WAR over 80 games, which isn't unreasonable. It's not insignificant.

[Rcal10]

2 hours ago, Bertz said:

I don't think this guy has ever been right about anything, but I'm happy to ignore that because the idea of adding Castillo and Crochet at the same time is enough to make me faint

Why do the Cubs want Crochett and Castillo? For one thing that is a 6 man rotation. Which, ok, maybe. But does that also mean they KNOW Sasaki isn’t choosing them. Personally I think it is bs that they want both. But why would this make you faint? 

[jersey cubs fan]

9 minutes ago, Bertz said:

This is easily the most cost efficient upgrade they can make on the roster by virtue of the replacement level roster filler he's displacing.

Isn’t he displacing sub-replacement level roster filler? 

[Bertz]

3 minutes ago, Rcal10 said:

Why do the Cubs want Crochett and Castillo? For one thing that is a 6 man rotation. Which, ok, maybe. But does that also mean they KNOW Sasaki isn’t choosing them. Personally I think it is bs that they want both. But why would this make you faint? 

I don't actually think it's happening either (does Taillon just disappear?) but a rotation with front four of Crochet, Steele, Castillo, and Shota is probably the best in baseball.  At worst a stones throw behind the Phillies/Dodgers/Braves.  It's also in addition to talent pretty high in watchability.

[SOFNR]

6 minutes ago, Rcal10 said:

Why do the Cubs want Crochett and Castillo? For one thing that is a 6 man rotation. Which, ok, maybe. But does that also mean they KNOW Sasaki isn’t choosing them. Personally I think it is bs that they want both. But why would this make you faint? 

I doubt they'd run a six man rotation if they got Crochet and Castillo. Boyd would just be an expensive swing man which is probably a good use for him. And if Sasaki does choose the Cubs you move to a 6 man. But I'd agree signing both Crochet and Castillo is probably bs

[LBiittner]

1 minute ago, SOFNR said:

I doubt they'd run a six man rotation if they got Crochet and Castillo. Boyd would just be an expensive swing man which is probably a good use for him. And if Sasaki does choose the Cubs you move to a 6 man. But I'd agree signing both Crochet and Castillo is probably bs

It actually would be 2 rather expensive trades

[thawv]

MLB Trade Rumors suggests that it might be Amaya that gets DFA, and not Thaiss due to he being a LHH.  This is something that never crossed my mind.  

[We Got The Whole 9]

9 minutes ago, TomtheBombadil said:

Hot take: there’s alot to like about Kelly’s bat within the context of not expecting anything at all on offense from maybe especially a FA at the position. Few catchers let alone FA ones with sea legs can still put up a near lg avg avg EV, recover some juice from the previous season, put up a .412 xSLG (.175 xIsoSLG), post an avg BB%, low whiffs, doesn’t chase, hit flyballs…Not leading off or hitting second but there’s plenty to think he won’t be a problem 

I've long wondered why you don't just say ISO. We all speak that language.

 

This is a boring move. Hopefully our catchers can hit league average though.

Edited December 9, 2024 by We Got The Whole 9

[Cuzi]

9 minutes ago, thawv said:

MLB Trade Rumors suggests that it might be Amaya that gets DFA, and not Thaiss due to he being a LHH.  This is something that never crossed my mind.  

Amaya hits righties better than Thaiss does. Who cares about handedness in that case?

[Rcal10]

11 minutes ago, thawv said:

MLB Trade Rumors suggests that it might be Amaya that gets DFA, and not Thaiss due to he being a LHH.  This is something that never crossed my mind.  

I doubt that happens. Amaya has done enough to be on the team over Thaiss. 

[Bertz]

It seems like the team is aiming higher, and that's great, but depending on where we net out with the other SP I have a feeling this is going to be the deal I look back on and wonder why we couldn't have nabbed him.

[Stratos]

52 minutes ago, thawv said:

But how much are they going to be catching?  Yes, Kelly is the better defensive catcher.  I'd think he's getting about 6 million.  I don't think the upgrade outweighs the cost.  The budget is extremely tight. 

Amaya could also get hurt or struggle again.  If they can grab 1-2 WAR for 10m or less on a position they had a huge hole last year then I'm happy they do that.

The options are limited and Thaiss is a solid enough 3rd catcher especially if they could improve his framing a bit.  Going into ST with Amaya/Thaiss as 1-2 is just too worrisome.

[squally1313]

It's great that we can all have it both ways. Every time a bad catcher* signs with another team, we can complain about Jed not signing him. And then when we finally get a bad catcher, we also get to complain that he's not good and it's a bad signing. No matter what happens, the outcome is the same!

* 'bad catcher' can be substituted with 'mediocre catcher' or 'overly injured pitcher' or however you describe the next move that tangentially involves the Cubs

[Outshined_One]

DFAing Amaya makes zero sense to me.

[Tryptamine]

11 minutes ago, Outshined_One said:

DFAing Amaya makes zero sense to me.

I'd argue it actually makes the team worse as Amaya has flashed upside Kelly can't touch. With that said, I'd be shocked if he was dfa'd and as little as I think of Jed, even I think he's not that dumb.