Non-Soto FA thread

[Jason Ross]

9 minutes ago, thawv said:

A trade today is pretty much out of the question.  So no trade.  I'm hoping that he's still injured so that Shaw can start in MLB career.  It's pretty simple for me.  I'd prefer Shaw over Nico.  You don't feel that way.  I'm not trying to change your mind either.  

Again, I implore you to go look at what the best offensive prospects in the MLB did upon their call up. Then I want you to think "is it logical that Matt Shaw might also struggle initially?" then reconsider this opinion. Because the absolute best prospects struggled. We're talking uber prospects like Chourio, Holiday, Wood, Crews, Langford...all struggled. What's more likely? That Matt Shaw is not only better day 1 than Nico Hoerner (3-5% better than league average), but that he's also in some tier above all of those uber prospects? Or that Shaw will likely struggle for a while? Probably a few months?

You're allowed your opinion, but I think it's probably a good thing to reflect on your opinion and see there's much evidence for it being a solid one. Because I think it's incredibly outlandish to hope that the 2025 Cubs start the season without one of their few bang-on players you can pencil in for four win talent just so we can play a rookie who probably won't hit the ground running, simply because it's very hard to do right now.

[thawv]

2 minutes ago, Rob said:

Everybody staying healthy is a pipedream. Did you forget that Hoerner had surgery that may keep him out the first part of the season?

Shaw is going to get a ton of chances in ST to prove his worth. And he's likely to line himself up as a the primary backup to 2B, 3B, and SS. He may start the season with the Cubs depending on Hoerner's recovery, but once Hoerner is good to go it probably makes sense to put Shaw back in AAA for his development. But I'd bet dollars to donuts that any prolonged injury to Swanson, Hoerner, or Paredes ends up with Shaw getting the nod.

I'd guess Shaw logs north of 60 games with the Cubs this year, and is poised to take over a spot next year.

And to touch on a point you've made to other people -- I don't know why you're so concerned about offensive runs versus defensive runs. There are arguments about the proper roster construction to be made in the playoffs, but for the regular season runs are basically runs. There's no point of diminishing returns on defense during the regular season. Remember 2016? We had the best defense in baseball.

How can I forget that he had surgery the second week of October?

 

He's not going to be on the roster unless he's a full time player.  IMO, he has nothing to prove against minor league pitching, and it won't help his development.  I think it will slow it down.   Of course if there' an infield injury, Shaw is the guy. 

Take a look at the playoff teams, and then look at their slugging.  Offense over defense all day for me.  

[Transmogrified Tiger]

9 minutes ago, thawv said:

Are you implying that Nico is an elite offensive player?  He's not.  We know what he is offensively, and it's average.  Look, if you think that Shaw won't be as good as Nico offensively, then that's your contention.  I just don't agree with it.  I think that right now, Shaw is an offensive upgrade to Nico, who is and will not be no better than average.  I'd like to upgrade from average. 

Use whatever descriptor you want, but in last year's offensive environment being an above average hitter with 30+ steals at an elite rate meant that only 2 players were clearly better offensively.  Maybe the offensive environment reverts in a way that benefits others more than Nico(though he will see progress from Wrigley's likely reversion too), but that's the current reality. 

The moral of the story is that Nico gets systemically underrated because he only hits 1-2 HR a month instead of 2-3.  He is very valuable at the plate.

[thawv]

1 minute ago, 1908_Cubs said:

Again, I implore you to go look at what the best offensive prospects in the MLB did upon their call up. Then I want you to think "is it logical that Matt Shaw might also struggle initially?" then reconsider this opinion. Because the absolute best prospects struggled. We're talking uber prospects like Chourio, Holiday, Wood, Crews, Langford...all struggled. What's more likely? That Matt Shaw is not only better day 1 than Nico Hoerner (3-5% better than league average), but that he's also in some tier above all of those uber prospects? Or that Shaw will likely struggle. 

You're allowed your opinion, but I think it's probably a good thing to reflect on your opinion and see there's much evidence for it being a solid one. Because I think it's incredibly outlandish to hope that the 2025 Cubs start the season without one of their few bang-on players you can pencil in for four win talent just so we can play a rookie.

I expect him to struggle early on and settle in fairly quickly and be a very good offensive player.  Much better than Nico by June.  

So, what if there's no injury to an IF'ers?  What do you think they should do with Shaw?  More minor league pitching?  Sit him on the Cubs bench?  Try to create an opening for him?  How long in AAA?  Until 2027 if there's no major injury?  

[Rob]

People don't give Nico enough credit on offense. His wRC+ by season:

• 2019 - 85 (82 PA)
• 2020 - 63 (126 PA)
• 2021 - 106 (170 PA)
• 2022 - 108 (517 PA)
• 2023 - 104 (688 PA)
• 2024 -  103 (641 PA)

Nico had a rough first couple hundred plate appearances. Since then, he's been slightly above-average on offense, whilst still playing a premium defensive position exceedingly well.

He hits for a high average, takes just enough walks, and hits for just barely passable power. And then adds some value on the bases. Is it a sexy offensive profile? Absolutely not. He's basically Ryan Theriot with a bit more pop. But it's enough to provide real value.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

Shaw was drafted less than 18 months ago and has 35 games at AAA, he's not going to spoil by spending a chunk of next season at Iowa, in fact it may ease his transition to see those advanced arsenals more first.

[Jason Ross]

4 minutes ago, thawv said:

I expect him to struggle early on and settle in fairly quickly and be a very good offensive player.  Much better than Nico by June.  

So, what if there's no injury to an IF'ers?  What do you think they should do with Shaw?  More minor league pitching?  Sit him on the Cubs bench?  Try to create an opening for him?  How long in AAA?  Until 2027 if there's no major injury?  

So you expect him to be in a tier above most of those other uber prospects, because none of them have settled into anything yet. They've flashed, but settled into nothing. That's very outlandish. You do realize that, right? What exactly makes you think Matt Shaw will settle in fairly quickly when someone like Dylan Crews or Jackson Holiday didn't? 

There will be an injury. Hoerner is good for a trip to the IL every year, and he's hurt now. When was the last time the Cubs had a full season where an infielder didn't go down? And if the Cubs have the good fortune of having their 4 win SS, their 4 win 2b and their 3 win 3b be healthy for a full season? Guess what? Matt Shaw is going to be just fine. He's not going to wither and die because he was in Iowa. It's not going to make him not develop. He has less than 40 games in Iowa, Thaw. It will just delay your want to see Shaw in Chicago. That's it.

[Rob]

17 minutes ago, thawv said:

Take a look at the playoff teams, and then look at their slugging.  Offense over defense all day for me.  

Again, I encourage you to look back at 2016 when the Cubs won the World Series on the back of their incredible defense.

And I'll remind you that Javier Baez was not expected to be a major contributor to that team. But when his development was clear, the coaching staff shuffled things around and found places for him to play. He logged time at 2B, 3B, and SS, even though when the team was healthy that meant shuffling Zobrist and Bryant around.

If Shaw develops like you're anticipating and starts forcing the issue, I have no doubt that Counsell will find playing time for him moving forward.

[thawv]

16 minutes ago, 1908_Cubs said:

So you expect him to be in a tier above most of those other uber prospects, because none of them have settled into anything yet. They've flashed, but settled into nothing. That's very outlandish. You do realize that, right? What exactly makes you think Matt Shaw will settle in fairly quickly when someone like Dylan Crews or Jackson Holiday didn't? 

There will be an injury. Hoerner is good for a trip to the IL every year, and he's hurt now. When was the last time the Cubs had a full season where an infielder didn't go down? And if the Cubs have the good fortune of having their 4 win SS, their 4 win 2b and their 3 win 3b be healthy for a full season? Guess what? Matt Shaw is going to be just fine. He's not going to wither and die because he was in Iowa. It's not going to make him not develop. He has less than 40 games in Iowa, Thaw. It will just delay your want to see Shaw in Chicago. That's it.

Ok.  I'm bowing out here.  I understand what you're saying.  Yes, I think he'll be better from the get go than those guys were.  Maybe not in the long run, but I think he's an upgrade right now offensively.  

[thawv]

Just now, Rob said:

Again, I encourage you to look back at 2016 when the Cubs won the World Series on the back of their incredible defense.

And I'll remind you that Javier Baez was not expected to be a major contributor to that team. But when his development was clear, the coaching staff shuffled things around and found places for him to play. He logged time at 2B, 3B, and SS, even though when the team was healthy that meant shuffling Zobrist and Bryant around.

If Shaw develops like you're anticipating and starts forcing the issue, I have no doubt that Counsell will find playing time for him moving forward.

Today, teams are winning with offense.  That's all. 

[thawv]

28 minutes ago, Tryptamine said:

in 2025, a slight offensive upgrade for a massive defensive downgrade, not sure i see the point.

I see the exact opposite.  Massive offensive upgrade for a small defensive downgrade.

[Stratos]

1 hour ago, thawv said:

I feel differently.  I think that right now, Shaw is the better player than Nico.  We have enough glove first guys.  We can afford to sacrifice defense for offense right now. 

Shaw isn't better than a 4 WAR player right now, and probably never will be, we have no idea.

A hit prevented with the glove is worth exactly the same as a hit added with the bat.  Nico improves the ERAs of our pitchers.

If Dansby or Nico added most of their value with the bat instead of glove most fans would feel differently about them because fans are biased towards hitting.

[Cuzi]

If Nico Hoerner gets us a pitcher of equal value, better than what we are talking about as potential targets in FA, then I'm not against trading him to open up the spot for Shaw. But, given that Hoerner only has 2 years remaining, and isn't an elite hitter, I dont think you get equal value out of him in trade. The way this is playing out, Hoerner feels more like a deadline move. This organization isn't serious about all that 90 win horsefeathers they were spewing, at least everyone but Counsel isn't, so we probably end up in another situation where we are 5+ games out of a playoff spot at the deadline, staring 83 wins in the face again, and talking about selling.

[Bertz]

Michael Busch's 2023-2024 trajectory should be your median expectation for any big time hitting prospect at this point.

- Really rough first month as you arrive in MLB

- Really good month as you figure out how pitchers are attacking you and adjust

- Another deep slump as pitchers adjust back

- Figure out pitchers' round 2 gameplan, reach equilibrium and be roughly who you are with normal ebbs and flows going forward

I think Matt Shaw is going to be significantly better offensively than Nico Hoerner in time.  Something like a 120 wRC+.  However in the early going he's going to have some real struggles as he adjusts to MLB.  He's also not nearly the baserunner or defender Nico is.

If you've got a plan where you deal Nico away and net a major upgrade elsewhere, fine let's run Shaw out there as the everyday 2B.  But there is very little chance he's just straight up better than Hoerner in 2025.

[Jason Ross]

1 hour ago, thawv said:

Ok.  I'm bowing out here.  I understand what you're saying.  Yes, I think he'll be better from the get go than those guys were.  Maybe not in the long run, but I think he's an upgrade right now offensively.  

But why do you think that? You have yet to provide a shred of reasoning behind your opinion. You say you think that, but why do you think that? That's important here. Is there data you're basing this off of? If so, please share.

However, from where I'm sitting, it really feels like the reason you think that is something along the lines of "I'm a Cub fan, and Matt Shaw is a Cub prospect. The other prospects are not Cubs, thus Matt Shaw will do better". Maybe that's enough for you, but by god I hope that's not enough for the Chicago Cubs' decision makers to rush out and find a way to replace their already pretty damn good 2b. 

I'm a big Matt Shaw guy. Honestly ,when I look at the data, I think there's a lot to really like there. He makes a good amount of contact, and while the leg kick is a bit funky (I'm not entirely convinced the leg kick is an issue. Some guys do things funky), he tones it down with two strikes and still shows good EV's. He handles velocity really well. He crushes fastballs. He's killed it in the Premier12. And if you told me he ended up being a Dustin Pedroia of sorts...I'd probably believe you - I think he's got that kind of a profile. But he's almost assuredly going to be over matched for 60+ games like all of the other really good prospects in baseball have been and I can't find much of a reason to think that he's going to forgo that. He's a free swinger and pitchers are going to exploit that. He struggled on sweepers at Triple-A. It's small sample size, but he didn't do well against them.  And his leg kick may very well be exploitable too - Zach Neto had a similar profile and he had to eliminate it. He could probably pull the ball more too - hitting opposite field home runs is not a strategy for sustained success at the MLB level and Shaw does that a bunch. Pitchers are going to exploit him like he's never been exploited before. I think he'll adjust, but it's probably going to take 45-60+ games of struggles to get there as pitchers adjust to him, and then he adjusts to pitchers. It almost assuredly won't take a week and magically he'll be fine. 

It's why rooting for Hoerner to be hurt for 2-3 weeks so Shaw gets a chance is a bit silly. Those will be weeks he's probably not particularly good during. It won't help the Cubs win. He doesn't play defense well enough to give him a floor during that struggle time. And the Cubs aren't good enough to just have a hole on the team. 

[Tryptamine]

1 hour ago, thawv said:

I see the exact opposite.  Massive offensive upgrade for a small defensive downgrade.

That's crazy optimistic on offense and defense

[Derwood]

PCA had “nothing to prove in AAA” too and his learning curve was STEEP when he was called up

[Rob]

4 minutes ago, Derwood said:

PCA had “nothing to prove in AAA” too and his learning curve was STEEP when he was called up

Nah.

I love PCA, but there was (is) a notable hole at the top of his swing which lets him get beat by high heat. He'd struggled mightily with that, and went 0-14 in his cup of coffee prior to last year.

His floor was still high due to his defense and baserunning. But he had plenty to prove.

[Cuzi]

6 minutes ago, Derwood said:

PCA had “nothing to prove in AAA” too and his learning curve was STEEP when he was called up

What? PCA was a league average hitter striking out 29% of the time in AAA.

[Derwood]

8 minutes ago, Cuzi said:

What? PCA was a league average hitter striking out 29% of the time in AAA.

That’s why I put it in quotes. People couldn’t wait to rush him to the majors. 

[Rcal10]

39 minutes ago, Derwood said:

That’s why I put it in quotes. People couldn’t wait to rush him to the majors. 

Pretty sure thawv was one of those people wanting to rush him to the majors. I don’t think the point of using PCA’s journey last year to compare it to Shaw’s journey this year was to show PCA didn’t have anything to prove. I think it is more to compare his 23’ numbers to Shaw’s numbers in 24’. PCA hit over .280, slugged over .500 and had OPS near .900 in 23’. And in 24’ he struggled a long time. Took him a while to even get to .215 with OPS over .600. Why should anyone expect anything  different from Shaw? His numbers in 24’ were pretty close to PCA of 23’. The difference is Ahaw’s glove won’t keep him in the line up if he isn’t hitting. 

[Matthew Trueblood]

Very MUCH non-Soto!

[chibears55]

3 hours ago, Matthew Trueblood said:

Very MUCH non-Soto!

This is the type of signing i expect from them...   it going to be another disappointing offseason 

The Cubs and free-agent left hander Matthew Boyd reached an agreement on a two-year deal on Monday, according to a report from MLB Network insider Jon Heyman. The deal is reportedly worth $29 million for two years, with $14.5 million a year, plus $1 million in performance bonuses ($500,000 each year).

Edited December 2, 2024 by chibears55

[I owned a Suzuki]

I really was down on taking a shot with Boyd.   I was not down with all but guaranteeing him a spot in the rotation

[Ding Dong Johnson]

"oft-injured" is always the first thing I look for