Bears week 6 vs Jags in London, Sunday at 8:30am

[NotKyle]

I haven't watched near as much video of the defense as I have the offense, because who cares about defense, but my probably unpopular opinion is that we can function fine without Brisker. He's a boom/bust merchant more than a consistent big-time player.

When we win, he gets remembered for the big forced fumble and not the 39-yard touchdown run he allowed by abandoning his gap, or the completely unnecessary personal foul chasing a truck stick hit on a guy going out of bounds.

[WrigleyField 22]

2 hours ago, Irrelevant Dude said:

The thing soccer has that might be comparable to the "small collisions" would be headers, but how many times is the average player actually heading the ball now?  When I was a kid, we practiced them even at a young age, but now they don't do it at all for the younger age groups and even as kids get older I'm pretty sure there are significant limitations placed on the amount of heading that is done.

Yea, headers are banned in most leagues at the youngest ages.

[UMFan83]

3 minutes ago, WrigleyField 22 said:

Yea, headers are banned in most leagues at the youngest ages.

I think at least where I live you aren't allowed to do headers in games until at least 14 years old.  You are allowed to do headers in practice after 11 years old but not in actual games.

[WrigleyField 22]

2 hours ago, raw said:

There are tons of stunt (lifting, flips) injuries in cheerleading.

Yep. Both of my sisters cheered competetively so I sat through my share of cheer competetions. I'm surprised it's not higher, honestly.  It's basically gymnastic floor routine on steroids. Plus there's like 20 of them out there flying around.

[bukie]

9 minutes ago, UMFan83 said:

I think at least where I live you aren't allowed to do headers in games until at least 14 years old.  You are allowed to do headers in practice after 11 years old but not in actual games.

I coach with a class D soccer coaching license (I will give it to organized soccer leagues, they are very strict on coaching requirements and you need the license to coach), which allows me to coach kids up to 13. No headers allowed at any level up to that age, and if a purposeful header is done in a game it's a foul. Incidental contact with the head happens anyway, especially for young players when the ball can go flying in random directions, but any head contact results in an immediate stop in play, that player removed from the field until evaluated and cleared by a medical professional (or sometimes coach if no medical is available on site, but then you have to follow the protocol).

Rec leagues are typically their own beast, though, especially if they aren't sanctioned by IYSA.

[NotKyle]

Bears are -2, which seems fair on neutral ground in an unusual situation that could be an equalizer.

This game is a big turning point for my expectations.  As of right now, I'm not wildly convinced this is a playoff team.  I have trouble seeing a draft-pick chasing meltdown, but it's got "in the hunt but outside for all of december" written all over it.

But if Caleb Williams and the offense put up another impressive week (against another terrible defense) then it gets harder not to think we have at least an adequate offense paired with a top-5 D, and at that point why not us?

[Tryptamine]

9 minutes ago, NotKyle said:

Bears are -2, which seems fair on neutral ground in an unusual situation that could be an equalizer.

This game is a big turning point for my expectations.  As of right now, I'm not wildly convinced this is a playoff team.  I have trouble seeing a draft-pick chasing meltdown, but it's got "in the hunt but outside for all of december" written all over it.

But if Caleb Williams and the offense put up another impressive week (against another terrible defense) then it gets harder not to think we have at least an adequate offense paired with a top-5 D, and at that point why not us?

If they're going to be a play off team they realistically have to take 3 out of the Jacksonville/Washington/Arizona/New England stretch. After that they're going to spend the rest of the season playing teams that are all likely to be .500 or better by season's end. I feel like that Indianapolis game is going to come back to haunt them.

[NotKyle]

22 minutes ago, Tryptamine said:

If they're going to be a play off team they realistically have to take 3 out of the Jacksonville/Washington/Arizona/New England stretch. After that they're going to spend the rest of the season playing teams that are all likely to be .500 or better by season's end. I feel like that Indianapolis game is going to come back to haunt them.

I'm probably getting way ahead of myself on the irrational exuberance, but if this defense lets that New England offense (even with Maye) put up 13 points on them, they should forfeit out of shame.

[mul21]

3 minutes ago, NotKyle said:

I'm probably getting way ahead of myself on the irrational exuberance, but if this defense lets that New England offense (even with Maye) put up 13 points on them, they should forfeit out of shame.

That's exactly the kind of QB this defense should eat alive so I hope you're right.

[Tryptamine]

42 minutes ago, NotKyle said:

I'm probably getting way ahead of myself on the irrational exuberance, but if this defense lets that New England offense (even with Maye) put up 13 points on them, they should forfeit out of shame.

The NE game I'm not concerned about, but I could very easily see them losing to either Washington or Arizona. 

[raw]

54 minutes ago, Tryptamine said:

If they're going to be a play off team they realistically have to take 3 out of the Jacksonville/Washington/Arizona/New England stretch. After that they're going to spend the rest of the season playing teams that are all likely to be .500 or better by season's end. I feel like that Indianapolis game is going to come back to haunt them.

If I had to pick the 1 out of those 4 they lose, it'd probably have to be New England. But NE is the Carolina of the AFC. The Bears have no business losing to them if they want to compete for anything this year. Then again, 4-2 would make me feel much better, coming off the last 2 weeks than 3-3 going into the bye would. 

They gotta beat Washington just so the "dId ThE bEaRs DrAfT tHe WrOnG gUy" stuff can end. Plus, if they don't win that division, they are going to be impossible to beat out for the WC with 2 wins on the Bears and a H2H

Arizona is another team that could haunt them in a hypothetical WC race. Plus, conference record is a pretty big tiebreaker with other teams.

 

[NotKyle]

Chalk would be beating Jacksonville, Arizona and NE, losing to Washington. That would acceptable (I refuse to get baited into a fake rivalry between Daniels and Williams).

Anything less would make playoffs a long shot.

The divisional games, I don't wanna mark us down for 0-6 just yet.  The Vikings look legit terrifying, that's a super bowl level defense. But the Lions and especially the Packers? I think we might be on their level and they should be just as scared of us as we are of them.

 

 

[BigbadB]

1 hour ago, NotKyle said:

Chalk would be beating Jacksonville, Arizona and NE, losing to Washington. That would acceptable (I refuse to get baited into a fake rivalry between Daniels and Williams).

Anything less would make playoffs a long shot.

The divisional games, I don't wanna mark us down for 0-6 just yet.  The Vikings look legit terrifying, that's a super bowl level defense. But the Lions and especially the Packers? I think we might be on their level and they should be just as scared of us as we are of them.

 

 

I feel like most of the preseason predictions I was looking at had the Vikings being not only last place in the division, but possibly among the worst teams in the entire league. How wrong they were.

 

[BigbadB]

1 hour ago, raw said:

If I had to pick the 1 out of those 4 they lose, it'd probably have to be New England. But NE is the Carolina of the AFC. The Bears have no business losing to them if they want to compete for anything this year. Then again, 4-2 would make me feel much better, coming off the last 2 weeks than 3-3 going into the bye would. 

They gotta beat Washington just so the "dId ThE bEaRs DrAfT tHe WrOnG gUy" stuff can end. Plus, if they don't win that division, they are going to be impossible to beat out for the WC with 2 wins on the Bears and a H2H

Arizona is another team that could haunt them in a hypothetical WC race. Plus, conference record is a pretty big tiebreaker with other teams.

 

The NE game is right after the trade deadline. They may have traded a few of their play makers by the time the Bears face them.

[Soul]

4 hours ago, BigbadB said:

I feel like most of the preseason predictions I was looking at had the Vikings being not only last place in the division, but possibly among the worst teams in the entire league. How wrong they were.

 

I feel like there’s a team that peaks too early every year.  Hopefully that’s the Vikings.

[Derwood]

It's quite annoying that social media hasn't cooled on the "Bears should have picked Jayden Daniels" hot takes despite Caleb's recent play.

Daniels has an unsustainable completion % and a better line, but I'll still take Caleb all day

[BigbadB]

6 hours ago, Derwood said:

It's quite annoying that social media hasn't cooled on the "Bears should have picked Jayden Daniels" hot takes despite Caleb's recent play.

Daniels has an unsustainable completion % and a better line, but I'll still take Caleb all day

Daniels takes off running a lot. He's basically Lamar Jackson. But, I don't think his body type is built to sustain a lot of hits from Linebackers and Safeties. I see him getting RGIII'd at some point. He's fun to watch, though. 

[gflore34]

10 hours ago, Soul said:

I feel like there’s a team that peaks too early every year.  Hopefully that’s the Vikings.

While their defense is legitimate, I feel Darnold' play is unsustainable, there's a reason he's a journey-man QB.

It'll be interesting to see how Caleb handles their blitzes, I suspect some will succeed but, some won't, and Caleb will burn them.  No more deer in the headlights against the blitz QBing for the Vikings to exploit.  

[jersey cubs fan]

16 hours ago, NotKyle said:

The Vikings look legit terrifying, that's a super bowl level defense.

 

 

Definitely Not Kyle 

[raw]

Another week, another winnable game. Part of me is pretty excited the Jags won last week. The cream rises to the top in the NFL, and the Jags are definitely better than an 0-5 team. Are they better than 1-4? Possibly, but they haven't necessarily played like it. Since starting last season at 8-3, the Jags have won just 2 of their last 11 games.

A lot is being made of the Bears leaving on Monday and the Jags not leaving until today/tonight, and the advantage that gives the Bears. While there may be some substance to this, being that the Jags are leaving the day after a massive hurricane in FL and may have some loose ends that takes their focus away.....the reality is the Jags have done this a bunch. This will be their 12th trip to London. They probably know what they are doing. The Jags are also 6-5 in London, 2-0 in Tottenham Stadium where this game will be played. And Lawrence is 3-1 overseas.

Make no mistake about it, the Jags are a bad defense. They are giving up 28+ per game and the league's highest passing yards per game. But despite being worse than Carolina in those 2 areas, there is a bit of a caveat here. The Jags have played Josh Allen, CJ Stroud, and healthy Tua. Granted, they did play Deshaun Watson, who they pretty much stopped. But then they allowed 450 yards to a Flacco led offense last week. 

Unlike Carolina though, the Jags don't have a Jaycee Horn. Their DBs are horrid and their LBs aren't much better. Jacksonville has just 2 turnovers on D all season, both on fumbles. So, Caleb should be able to continue his recent play without much fear of the defense being able to take the ball the other way. But also unlike Carolina, the Jags have some solid guys upfront. Arik Armstead and old friend, Roy Robertson-Harris are their tackles inside. Both are skyscrapers who are tough to throw over if they get any push. On the edge, the Jags have Josh Allen, who hasn't gotten off to a great start this year but was a top pass rusher last year. Taking his place among the top pass rushers is the opposite edge, former #1 pick, Travon Walker, who is 5th in the league with 5 sacks. He has a bullrush that can give Braxton trouble similar to what we saw from Jared Verse. 

The Jags also have shown a decent run D so far. They are 6th in yards per carry allowed, and top 1/4 in rush yards allowed per game. 

When the Bears are on D, the Jags provide an interesting challenge for the Bears defense. The Jags have a 2-headed monster at RB with their backup, Tank Bigsby, getting a whopping 8 yards per carry. The Bears will have to be on their toes when he's in the game. In the pass game, they have Christian Kirk, who can be pretty deadly in the slot. And rookie Brian Thomas has the big play ability that can keep the Bears safeties (one of whom will be a backup) honest. 

The problem so far, Trevor Lawrence has been pretty bad. He's been wildly inaccurate and has absolutely folded under pressure. He looks legitimately scared under pressure and even worse when there is an actual blitz sent at him. He's 31st in the league with a -0.78 EPA per attempt when pressured. And the Jags have allowed pressure on 41% of dropbacks, which is really bad. 

I think this will be a tougher game than many Bears fans expect, coming off last week's rout. The Jags will likely be able to move the ball on the ground and Lawrence can still pick you apart if left clean. Conversely, they may be able to stop the Bears run game and get enough pressure on Caleb to make his life tough. The key will be turnovers. You gotta force an untimely turnover (or 2) out of the Jags, as they tend to give you and NOT give them the turnover they haven't caused all year.

[Brian707]

Why is everyone propping up Washington? Their defense is hot garbage.

 

They lost to Tampa by 18 then beat the vaunted Giants by 3, who had no kicker Bungles who have a worse defense than they do, Cardinals, and the ****** Browns. Washington will finish with 8 or 9 wins.

 

The game I am most worried about is this week but 3-1 should be expected before the gauntlet begins. The Bears biggest problem is the NFC North is the best division in football, they have to go 3-3 and that will be tough.

 

I think they still split with Detroit

But can they split with GB and Minnesota?

[NotKyle]

1 hour ago, Brian707 said:

Why is everyone propping up Washington? Their defense is hot garbage.

 

They lost to Tampa by 18 then beat the vaunted Giants by 3, who had no kicker Bungles who have a worse defense than they do, Cardinals, and the ****** Browns. Washington will finish with 8 or 9 wins.

 

The game I am most worried about is this week but 3-1 should be expected before the gauntlet begins. The Bears biggest problem is the NFC North is the best division in football, they have to go 3-3 and that will be tough.

 

I think they still split with Detroit

But can they split with GB and Minnesota?

Detroit is a harder split than GB.

GB is living off of "but they're the packers!" aura imo.  Maybe they'll make me eat these words, but I just don't think they look much more than mediocre.

[stitchface]

On 10/9/2024 at 6:22 AM, jersey cubs fan said:

If you are genuinely concerned about head injuries in football for your children you shouldn’t be steering them toward soccer. 

wrong

[BigSlick]

While I think they are all very strong teams, I don't think any of GB, MIN or DET are worldbeaters and I think a .500 division record shouldn't be insane to accomplish. 

I'm actually far less worried about the specific opponents than I am about them maintaining competent offensive production over the course of the season. It's less what the opponent is doing and more if the Bears O can remain 'looks like a reasonably professional offense' status. If they can maintain the effectiveness of the last two games, I think they win 10ish games easily. If they revert to the first 3 games, they're in trouble. The quality of the opponent is almost beside the point. 

Edited October 10, 2024 by BigSlick

[raw]

4 hours ago, Brian707 said:

Why is everyone propping up Washington? Their defense is hot garbage.

They are 4-1 and their rookie QB leads the league in completion % and 2nd overall in passing yards. Their props are deserved, though I agree they won't last long.