Bears week 6 vs Jags in London, Sunday at 8:30am

[NotKyle]

The more I watch, the less the Jags defense scares me.   They won't be quite as easy to bully in the run game as the Rams, but I don't think their pass rush looks very good.

And their secondary is the worst I've seen this season.  Our receivers should be eating their lunch all day long.

If the bears lose this game, it would look something like the Colts game: lots of ball movement on offense that fails to turn into points (bears lost that game by having two drives get to the 1 and not score, a missed field goal, and a turnover in field goal range, 20+ points left on the field).  

Except the Jaguars D is the worst in the league at forcing turnovers.

I think there's a high probability we are spend next week recycling our "wow Caleb Williams, but to be fair he's doing it against bad defenses" takes for another week

 

Edited October 10, 2024 by NotKyle

[NotKyle]

Jenkins dnp today with an ankle injury.

Graders seemed to like what they saw of Bill Murray last week, and he might be next up with Nate Davis in the doghouse.

He's an interesting guy because he's 27 but he's a DL convert, he's only been playing OL for a couple years 

[minnesotacubsfan]

25 minutes ago, NotKyle said:

...

He's an interesting guy because he's 27 but he's a DL convert, he's only been playing OL for a couple years 

"to know thy enemy is to know thyself"

 

jk, thats not a really a quote, but I've often wondered if a position player switches to the other side of the ball, if they have some gained knowledge to use to their advantage

 

 

[BigSlick]

I'd feel a lot more comfortable about this game if it wasn't in London and right before a Bye. I feel like there's just gonna be a lot of stupid variance introduced by being across the ocean and I do think there's something psychological about looking forward to the week off. 

I'm thankful the Bears didn't allow the Panthers to hang around and just dumpstered them immediately after they had that breakdown defensively. Here's hoping they do the same thing this week, and it'll be a good test for the Bears D to deal with a good rushing attack and a (sometimes) talented QB. 

[MidoreX]

Everyone who opened the season on the IR was eligible to come back last week... What are the statuses of Borom and Bates?

Edited October 10, 2024 by MidoreX

[jersey cubs fan]

Bears down to -1.5

[NotKyle]

1 hour ago, jersey cubs fan said:

Bears down to -1.5

That seems crazy to me.  

But historically, when the lines seem crazy to me, the lines are right more often than I am.

[NotKyle]

1 hour ago, MidoreX said:

Everyone who opened the season on the IR was eligible to come back last week... What are the statuses of Borom and Bates?

Neither are practicing this week. Poles this week described Borom as "getting closer" to returning to practice and Bates as "getting healthier" but nothing more specific than that.

[raw]

Guessing Borom and Bates get their practice windows opened during the bye.

The interesting decision comes in what roster moves accompany them being activated. 

The Bears are carrying 4th TE, Stephen Carlson. Did yall even know he was on the roster? If you get rid of TE4, you now have OL10. But what about the other spot? You're not keeping 11 lineman. Obviously, Jenkins, Jones and Wright are safe. Biggs thinks Bates takes over for Shelton as starting C. And they aren't going to just cut Shelton, so there's 5. Pryor is starting, that's 6. Amegadjie is the 3rd round pick. He's 7. If you want Borom off of IR, he's 8th. 

Kramer was my first thought as "53rd man on the roster" when the final rosters came out. But he actually has a role now as pseudo full back. Murray has played too well to just release to get him to the practice squad. I'm guessing if Jenkins can't go Sunday, he'll get the nod at LG. Does that leave Nate Davis as the odd man out? Would the Bears actually cut Davis? Every other OL on the roster either has use and/or a future. Davis is clearly not on the 2025 Bears roster. Do they cut bait during the bye and eat the money?

[jersey cubs fan]

2 hours ago, raw said:

Guessing Borom and Bates get their practice windows opened during the bye.

The interesting decision comes in what roster moves accompany them being activated. 

The Bears are carrying 4th TE, Stephen Carlson. Did yall even know he was on the roster? If you get rid of TE4, you now have OL10. But what about the other spot? You're not keeping 11 lineman. Obviously, Jenkins, Jones and Wright are safe. Biggs thinks Bates takes over for Shelton as starting C. And they aren't going to just cut Shelton, so there's 5. Pryor is starting, that's 6. Amegadjie is the 3rd round pick. He's 7. If you want Borom off of IR, he's 8th. 

Kramer was my first thought as "53rd man on the roster" when the final rosters came out. But he actually has a role now as pseudo full back. Murray has played too well to just release to get him to the practice squad. I'm guessing if Jenkins can't go Sunday, he'll get the nod at LG. Does that leave Nate Davis as the odd man out? Would the Bears actually cut Davis? Every other OL on the roster either has use and/or a future. Davis is clearly not on the 2025 Bears roster. Do they cut bait during the bye and eat the money?

Davis seems easy choice to me. But why not Blasingame? 

[cwood218]

3 hours ago, raw said:

Guessing Borom and Bates get their practice windows opened during the bye.

The interesting decision comes in what roster moves accompany them being activated. 

The Bears are carrying 4th TE, Stephen Carlson. Did yall even know he was on the roster? If you get rid of TE4, you now have OL10. But what about the other spot? You're not keeping 11 lineman. Obviously, Jenkins, Jones and Wright are safe. Biggs thinks Bates takes over for Shelton as starting C. And they aren't going to just cut Shelton, so there's 5. Pryor is starting, that's 6. Amegadjie is the 3rd round pick. He's 7. If you want Borom off of IR, he's 8th. 

Kramer was my first thought as "53rd man on the roster" when the final rosters came out. But he actually has a role now as pseudo full back. Murray has played too well to just release to get him to the practice squad. I'm guessing if Jenkins can't go Sunday, he'll get the nod at LG. Does that leave Nate Davis as the odd man out? Would the Bears actually cut Davis? Every other OL on the roster either has use and/or a future. Davis is clearly not on the 2025 Bears roster. Do they cut bait during the bye and eat the money?

I think Carlson is on IR already. If so, they still need two spots.

Time for both Davis And Velus to slip and break a finger nail.

Edited October 11, 2024 by cwood218

[cwood218]

DP

Edited October 11, 2024 by cwood218
Double Post

[Brian707]

11 hours ago, jersey cubs fan said:

Bears down to -1.5

Wouldn't surprise me it gets down to pick em by Sunday.  

[raw]

7 hours ago, cwood218 said:

I think Carlson is on IR already. If so, they still need two spots.

Time for both Davis And Velus to slip and break a finger nail.

You're right. I was looking at an old roster. Blasingame makes some sense too. As he hasn't been active for a few weeks. Blasingame and Davis being cut would be 2 vets getting the boot. That would be a pretty bold-ish move;

[BigSlick]

It would be cool if Poles cut Velus Jones, the guy who has almost as many fumbles as touches in his career 

[BigSlick]

Tyrique Stevenson got an ankle injury in practice and is now doubtful for the game. That may explain the lowering of the line in Vegas.

Would hate to see Lawrence feast on our weakened secondary.

[BigbadB]

2 hours ago, raw said:

You're right. I was looking at an old roster. Blasingame makes some sense too. As he hasn't been active for a few weeks. Blasingame and Davis being cut would be 2 vets getting the boot. That would be a pretty bold-ish move;

I think they have another DE coming off of IR soon, also. Martin? They can probably just cut Robinson at this point. Don't see what he offers. 

[gflore34]

21 minutes ago, BigSlick said:

Tyrique Stevenson got an ankle injury in practice and is now doubtful for the game. That may explain the lowering of the line in Vegas.

Would hate to see Lawrence feast on our weakened secondary.

Probably would be OK if Terrell Smith wasn't out as well.

[UMFan83]

33 minutes ago, gflore34 said:

Probably would be OK if Terrell Smith wasn't out as well.

Yeah we're starting to get pretty banged up especially defensively.  Gonna have to win in a shootout.

Lawrence has only had more than 220 passing yards in a game once this year but it was his most recent (371 yards vs. Colts)

[NotKyle]

Maybe Trevor Lawrence will shove these words down my throat, but I don't think Brisker and Stevenson are good enough in coverage to warrant concern about their absence 

 

I hate how confident I am that the Bears are a better team. I probably shouldn't be.  But the jags offense isn't better than some of the other offenses our defense has handled fine, and the nicest thing I can say about the Jags defense is that it's probably a little better than the Panthers defense we just saw. Not much better.

 

So yeah, you can always lose an NFL game on a combination of turnovers, missed opportunities and flukes. But I don't see why this game is close in the spread.

Edited October 11, 2024 by NotKyle

[UMFan83]

22 minutes ago, NotKyle said:

Maybe Trevor Lawrence will shove these words down my throat, but I don't think Brisker and Stevenson are good enough in coverage to warrant concern about their absence 

 

I hate how confident I am that the Bears are a better team. I probably shouldn't be.  But the jags offense isn't better than some of the other offenses our defense has handled fine, and the nicest thing I can say about the Jags defense is that it's probably a little better than the Panthers defense we just saw. Not much better.

 

So yeah, you can always lose an NFL game on a combination of turnovers, missed opportunities and flukes. But I don't see why this game is close in the spread.

DVOA (I know just one of many metrics out there) has the Jags as the 27th best team in the NFL, with the 16th best offense and 32nd best defense in the league

For reference the Panthers are 30th overall, with the 29th best offense and 30th best defense.

Bears 20th overall, 26th best offense and 7th best defense.  They have played the easiest schedule in the league so far (rankings of opponents: 26th, 7th, 19th, 25th and 30th) and have the hardest remaining schedule in the league (27, 10, 21, 28, 11, 1, 5, 9, 1, 5, 8, 11)

Only some of this was responding to you, I started to go down the DVOA rabbit hole for a minute there 😄

[NotKyle]

Today in "yes I broke down and bought NFL premium film access," I noticed Kiran Amegadjie got his first non-ST, non-kneelout snap last week.  He came in as the TE in a jumbo set in the red zone. Adequate block on a run to his side.

 

He's huge and slow and will need a lot of work to be a tackle, but if they can't get him there, I think his skill set plays at guard someday.

[NotKyle]

Lines have moved all the way to Jacksonville being favored in some sites.

 

That seems absolutely bonkers to me, but it's more likely I am biased than the lines are.

[Brian707]

Yeah 1.5 dogs now for the Bears. That's 4 points movement since Sunday. 

When everyone is betting one side it usually goes the other way so expect a Bears win lol

[Brian707]

+2 now