What would be your ideal offseason?

[spaincubsfan]

Just spitballing as the WC is still a remote possibility although I think we'll be 1 & done if we make it. The streak has been nice but with Steele out we just won't have the horses to catch up methinks.

The 1st paragraph of the below article makes perfect sense & sums it up for me. I'd rather take this approach:

1. Graduate Horton out of ST if he does well and has a healthy offseason by putting him in the BP.
2. Trade for Vlad Guererro Jr to be the DH. He's not a butcher by any means but he is a very stable hitter and we have 1 year to extend him. Something like a Triantos/Rojas package & he replaces Cody who I think opts out.
3. Sign Tanner Scott to a 3/39M deal and project him as your LHP closer. Very good peripherals the last 3 years with an 11.4 K9 to 4.5 BB9 ratio.
4. Trade for a proven catcher still in the Arb process or sign Elías Díaz to a 2/11M contract (May have to pay more).

https://www.msn.com/en-my/spor...eason-says-insider/ar-AA1pc6jc

While the Chicago Cubs still have an outside chance at making the postseason in 2024, most Cubs fans are already looking ahead to 2025.
The expectation is that Chicago will be very aggressive this offseason in its pursuit of talent, with the Cubs already linked to several high-profile players.
Hurler Corbin Burnes, sluggers Vladimir Guererro Jr., and Pete Alonso are reportedly on the Cubs’ list of targets. However, Cubs reporter Evan Massey says one name should be eliminated from consideration.

Poll questions are generic and please missing options or possibilities...

[Bertz]

So it is too early to get overly attached to specifics.  The market doesn't really kick off for two more months.  But generally if you are Jed and you want a team that is aiming not just to sneak into the playoffs but to compete for a 1st round bye you need four major additions:

- A starting caliber catcher.  Even with Amaya's big 2nd half he still feels more likely to settle in as a premium backup or a 2nd division starter.  And honestly even if that underrates him the attrition at catcher is high enough to make overpreparing worth it

- A playoff caliber SP.  Having a 3rd high end veteran starter improves the team's impact talent as well as depth.  It also makes it so you can feel comfortable dealing a pre-arb SP helping address one of the other to-dos

- A closer.  The Cubs have Hodge and a small army of live arms you can feel cautiously optimistic about.  One guy you can slot in at or near the top of the hierarchy should prevent a repeat of this April and May as the team figures out the right mix of arms in '25

- A power bat in the 1B/OF/DH mix.  We've seen in the 2nd half here that the biggest need for the offense was getting the bottom of the order to stop hitting like pitchers.  But to further level up the group another power bat is needed 

Again, I'm trying to not get too attached to specific names at the moment, but my mind's eye this looks something like

Trade with Oakland for Shea Langeliers and Brent Rooker (this trade will hurt)

Sign Nate Eovaldi

Sign David Robertson

You'd probably want to do a little bit of additional fiddling with the bench and the bullpen too, but these three moves would be the principle.  This adds a ton of pop to the lineup, Rooker and Langeliers have 60 dongs between them with a few weeks left in the season.  Eovaldi and Robertson are both older but still excellent, so they likely ask for short term high AAV deals which we know is right in Jed's wheelhouse.  Even if Bellinger opts in this team is still likely under the LT as well.

[Post Count Padder]

Let's get wild.

Triantos, Ballesteros, Drew Gray, Kohl Franklin to the Mariners for Cal Raleigh and Bryan Woo.

Give Tanner Scott a check.

Christian Hernandez and Will Sanders to the Twins for Griffin Jax and Jose Miranda.

C - Raleigh

1B - Busch

2B - Hoerner

SS - Swanson

3B- Paredes

RF - Bellinger

CF - PCA

LF - Happ

DH - Suzuki

Bench - Amaya, Miranda, Canario, UTIL of choice

SP - Imanaga, Steele, Taillon, Woo, winner of Assad/Wicks/Horton/Ben Brown ST battle

RP - Scott, Jax, Hodge, Merryweather, Luke Little, Pearson, Tyson Miller, Assad/Ben Brown/Wesneski/potential FA signing

Maybe it's not shooting for the stars but the lineup is better, the defense is better, the rotation has depth, the backend of the pen is solid.

[Bobson Dugnutt]

23 minutes ago, Bertz said:

Trade with Oakland for Shea Langeliers and Brent Rooker (this trade will hurt)

Outside of PCA, there’s not a prospect or young player on the 26-man that should be off limits in a trade for these two.

You mention it in your post and it’s been said plenty on this board the past two years but this lineup looks so much better with a 30+ HR bat thrown in the middle of it.

[Bertz]

33 minutes ago, Bobson Dugnutt said:

Outside of PCA, there’s not a prospect or young player on the 26-man that should be off limits in a trade for these two.

You mention it in your post and it’s been said plenty on this board the past two years but this lineup looks so much better with a 30+ HR bat thrown in the middle of it.

Yeah I tend to agree.  There are guys I'd really like to stay away from more than others, namely Ben Brown on the pitching side and Matt Shaw on the hitting, but no one aside from PCA is *that* far ahead of their peers.  And this definitely feels like the winter to cash some chips in even if not for these specific guys.

[JBears79]

The ideal offseason is Soto. That's it. But that wont happen

Since we wont get that, id consider this a good offseason.

-Sign one of Fried, Eovaldi or Burnes

-Sign a mid tier reclamation type pitcher (Buehler, Bieber would be the two guys id like to target)

-invest in some stability in the bullpen. I like our collection of young arms and im optimistic about the bullpen next year but the Cubs cannot have that 1st half nonsense where they were consistently losing games that the bullpen blew. I get relievers are volatile but the bullpen desperately needs a good veteran. Robertson would be a good choice to bring back. Blake Treinen interests me, maybe Kirby Yates? I'm not saying go crazy but find a veteran presence we can count on.

-Sign or trade for a catcher and find the elite bat the lineup needs to elevate it to the next level. I love the idea of trading for Langerlis and Rooker. Kyle Tucker and Guerrero Jr. also come to mind as others have mentioned.

Most of us are basically all in the same mindset here, it seems like.

[Illiterate Scholar]

If Bellinger opts out, and maybe even if he doesn't, Rooker feels like a target. He has team control and a skillset we need. I know they weren't real eager to move him at the deadline, but I imagine they'd still listen on a 30 year old DH-only

Edited September 7, 2024 by Illiterate Scholar

[CubinNY]

On 9/7/2024 at 3:31 PM, Illiterate Scholar said:

I know they weren't real eager to move him at the deadline, 

That's the biggest issue with the trade proposals. The guys have to be available. Overwhelming a team with good not great young talent isn't going to get it done. 

[Outshined_One]

On 9/7/2024 at 1:59 PM, JBears79 said:

The ideal offseason is Soto. That's it. But that wont happen

This pretty much sums it up for me.

My inclination is, this is the offseason for the Cubs to cash in their prospect chips for a number of reasons, and I am a heck of a lot more amenable to seeing the Cubs trade from their glut of hitters on the farm than I was a year ago.  I'm also amenable to seeing the Cubs dangle guys like Nico and Busch in trade talks if it means acquiring someone like Rooker or Raleigh.  Frankly, the only guy I'd deem untouchable in the entire Cubs system is PCA.

Regardless, my major goals for this offseason would be acquiring, in order: (1) a top-end bat (regardless of position); (2) a mid-level inning eater SP; (3) a late inning RP; and (4) a starting catcher.

[squally1313]

I don't think Soto is completely unrealistic, especially in a world (my ideal world) where Bellinger opts out. There's a lot money coming off the books after 2026, and if you get Soto you can then make decisions as you go into 2025 on whether to push all your chips in the middle in the next two years with the Happ/Seiya/Hoerner group of guys or whether those guys start getting put out on the market in search of the next great Cubs team built around Soto, PCA, Steele, Shota, Horton, etc. 

But let's say that doesn't happen. Because it probably doesn't because everyone wants him and the Yankees, Dodgers, etc are more attractive options. We have somewhere between $50m and $75m (pending Belli) coming off the books and I obviously want them to spend it somewhere. I'm pretty over the 4/60, 5/80 deals. Maybe a starter because you always need more of those, but at that level you just aren't going to get enough surplus value over the kids sitting in AAA that can make league minimum.

So basically: go trade for Tucker or Vlad (strong preference for Tucker), sign him to a long term extension immediately. From there, the following players are available in trades for starters (ideally with Seattle): Busch, Hoerner, Paredes, Caissie, Shaw, Alcantara, Triantos, Ballesteros, I guess Happ. Trade the prospects if you want to really push for 2025/2026, trade the major league guys if you want to go with some sort of hybrid approach. 

[imb]

Juan Soto is not signing with the cubs in a billion years.

[Bertz]

I do think the power bat is the piece that is most likely to be something we're not currently considering.  Or, glass half empty, the piece Jed skimps on:

- From a trade standpoint Rooker & Vladito might simply not be available

- Soto is just not happening

- The second tier FA bats (Alonso, Santander, Teoscar, O'Neill) are all going to get qualifying offers.  Jed's generally not keen on paying that price for non-stars.  And I think the lack of urgency in getting under the LT (which exacerbates the cost of a QO) at the deadline points towards the team avoiding player who have been tagged

None of the above aside from Soto seems impossible.  But it does feel like if the goal with the offense is to add a jolt of power without materially stepping back in other ways, it might require some creativity.  That may be a name we're not considering that accomplishes this, or maybe the team has to take more of a portfolio approach and add 40-50 dongs over the course of 3-4 moves instead of 1-2.

[Tim]

2 hours ago, imb said:

Juan Soto is not signing with the cubs in a billion years.

It does ask what our ideal offseason would be. The realistic, ideal offseason would be a different question.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

Maybe interesting food for thought, these are 2 catcher options who are likely to be discussed this winter, but I'm guessing probably not discussed as similarly as those numbers would indicate.

 

 

[Tryptamine]

Bellinger opts out. Cubs sign Juan Soto, David Robertson and Jack Flaherty. They trade some MLB ready, or very close to, bats such as Alcantara to Seattle for one of Woo or Miller.

C- Amaya

1B- Busch

2B- Nico

SS- Dansby

3B- Paredes

LF- Happ

CF- PCA

RF- Soto

DH- Seiya

SP- Steele, Shota, Flaherty, Woo/Miller, Taillon

 

While I think there's potential for a top 10 offense, I still think it's one bat from a true monster line up, but that rotation is filth.

[Bertz]

17 minutes ago, Transmogrified Tiger said:

Maybe interesting food for thought, these are 2 catcher options who are likely to be discussed this winter, but I'm guessing probably not discussed as similarly as those numbers would indicate.

 

 

Kelly's almost certainly the boring/efficient/responsible play at Catcher.

That said one thing that's also a consideration is the lineup's need for power.  Especially if Bellinger opts in it might be tough to add that singular impact power bat.  Getting an extra ~15 dongs out of catcher even with a flat wRC+ might have some real value in upping the lineup's firepower in the aggregate.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

3 minutes ago, Bertz said:

Kelly's almost certainly the boring/efficient/responsible play at Catcher.

That said one thing that's also a consideration is the lineup's need for power.  Especially if Bellinger opts in it might be tough to add that singular impact power bat.  Getting an extra ~15 dongs out of catcher even with a flat wRC+ might have some real value in upping the lineup's firepower in the aggregate.

Yeah that's fair, for anyone unsure Langeliers is A and Kelly is B.

The thing that stands out in that comparison is less about Kelly(who is fairly described as boring/responsible) and more about Langeliers, since it's striking to me that he is so bad at everything besides hitting the occasional HR and controlling the run game that he's struggling to be an average player.  Definitely takes some wind out of my sails about the prospect of paying a healthy player cost to target him.

[Bertz]

As Bellinger goes on a heater to close out the year, I do wonder what parts of Jed's plan change depending on Cody's opt out.  Mike Tauchman covers a lot of what Cody brings to the table.  Not as well obviously, but I'd say the skill gap is smaller than the salary gap.

Right now, if Bellinger opts in, there is ~$50M for Jed to play with this winter.  Cody opting out makes than closer to $75M.  At $50M you simply can't do all the necessary winter shopping in free agency, or least you can't do it well.  A trade or two of substance feels more or less mandatory.  

At $75M though?  You can probably pull off a good offseason with just money if you're willing to eat a Qualifying Offer.  Santander ($25M per?), Carson Kelly ($8-10M), Nate Eovaldi ($20-25M), and David Robertson ($12-15M), easy peasy.

So if Cody opts out, does Jed just take the path of least resistance and do his shopping all in FA?  Does he still cover the bat or the SP in trade to make money less tight the following offseason?  Does he push his chips in and make a five or dare I ask six moves of consequence?  I would dismiss the latter out of hand if not for the fact that he's trying to earn an extension.

[squally1313]

45 minutes ago, Bertz said:

As Bellinger goes on a heater to close out the year, I do wonder what parts of Jed's plan change depending on Cody's opt out.  Mike Tauchman covers a lot of what Cody brings to the table.  Not as well obviously, but I'd say the skill gap is smaller than the salary gap.

Right now, if Bellinger opts in, there is ~$50M for Jed to play with this winter.  Cody opting out makes than closer to $75M.  At $50M you simply can't do all the necessary winter shopping in free agency, or least you can't do it well.  A trade or two of substance feels more or less mandatory.  

At $75M though?  You can probably pull off a good offseason with just money if you're willing to eat a Qualifying Offer.  Santander ($25M per?), Carson Kelly ($8-10M), Nate Eovaldi ($20-25M), and David Robertson ($12-15M), easy peasy.

So if Cody opts out, does Jed just take the path of least resistance and do his shopping all in FA?  Does he still cover the bat or the SP in trade to make money less tight the following offseason?  Does he push his chips in and make a five or dare I ask six moves of consequence?  I would dismiss the latter out of hand if not for the fact that he's trying to earn an extension.

I think we're not really in an era where any GM is going to make 5-6 moves of consequence in a single offseason. I know that having Too Many Dudes isn't actually a problem, so I'll rephrase and say it's an opportunity that you could look at the organization as a whole and see at least 9 guys (Happ, PCA, Seiya, Busch, Nico, Dansby, Paredes, Shaw, Caissie) that are reasonably expected to be be valuable starters, either through raw production or production/salary, within a couple months of Opening Day 2025. 10 if Belli sticks around, 11 if you want stretch and include Triantos or Alcantara.

We need an elite bat, it doesn't really matter which for purposes of this discussion. And there's no catcher in that mix, so Kelly, Amaya, whatever. So that's 11-13 dudes. Would it all work out through injury and weekly days off and prospects breaking? Probably. But should we stockpile that value on one side of the ball when pitching is suddenly looking pretty dire? You've got Steele and his sore arm and Shota as top 40ish pitchers in baseball, Taillon to eat innings, essentially lost years from Horton (34 IP), Wicks (62 IP), and Brown (55 IP), Assad (who knows), and then the Wesneskis/Kilians/Birdsells of the world. That's not enough starting pitching as is, and that's before even considering the luxury of turning any of them into shutdown relievers. 

I'm not particularly enamored by any of the starting pitching on the market. Use the money to increase the redundancy on the offensive side, and then Jed just has to make a call(s) to turn that into some pitching on the trade market. 

[Bertz]

31 minutes ago, squally1313 said:

I think we're not really in an era where any GM is going to make 5-6 moves of consequence in a single offseason. I know that having Too Many Dudes isn't actually a problem, so I'll rephrase and say it's an opportunity that you could look at the organization as a whole and see at least 9 guys (Happ, PCA, Seiya, Busch, Nico, Dansby, Paredes, Shaw, Caissie) that are reasonably expected to be be valuable starters, either through raw production or production/salary, within a couple months of Opening Day 2025. 10 if Belli sticks around, 11 if you want stretch and include Triantos or Alcantara.

We need an elite bat, it doesn't really matter which for purposes of this discussion. And there's no catcher in that mix, so Kelly, Amaya, whatever. So that's 11-13 dudes. Would it all work out through injury and weekly days off and prospects breaking? Probably. But should we stockpile that value on one side of the ball when pitching is suddenly looking pretty dire? You've got Steele and his sore arm and Shota as top 40ish pitchers in baseball, Taillon to eat innings, essentially lost years from Horton (34 IP), Wicks (62 IP), and Brown (55 IP), Assad (who knows), and then the Wesneskis/Kilians/Birdsells of the world. That's not enough starting pitching as is, and that's before even considering the luxury of turning any of them into shutdown relievers. 

I'm not particularly enamored by any of the starting pitching on the market. Use the money to increase the redundancy on the offensive side, and then Jed just has to make a call(s) to turn that into some pitching on the trade market. 

Yeah I think I tend to agree about that position player glut.  That 5 pack of bats at Iowa probably needs to be broken up, regardless of how much work Jed can do with just his checkbook.

I think in an ideal world you keep Ballesteros, Shaw, and one of Alcantara/Triantos.  That way you have coverage of every single position just a phone call away at Iowa, but you're still cashing in some chips to improve the team and not just hoarding prospects.

[squally1313]

24 minutes ago, Bertz said:

Yeah I think I tend to agree about that position player glut.  That 5 pack of bats at Iowa probably needs to be broken up, regardless of how much work Jed can do with just his checkbook.

I think in an ideal world you keep Ballesteros, Shaw, and one of Alcantara/Triantos.  That way you have coverage of every single position just a phone call away at Iowa, but you're still cashing in some chips to improve the team and not just hoarding prospects.

Yeah I think I'm mostly with you on that last paragraph. Would say you definitely keep

• one of Caissie/Ballesteros for instant offense
• Shaw - while Nico and Dansby are still very much good and not bad, they're both not young and their just good performance (v 2023 elite performance) lets you mix Shaw in at second once or twice a week, third once a week, DH, etc. There's room for him
• that's kinda it? Horton maybe just to avoid selling low, but no real problem with dumping Alcantara and Triantos, maybe even Cam Smith in the right deal. Alcantara specifically needs to go kinda regardless, especially in a Cody opting-in world.

[Rob]

I think the solution to the catcher situation is to grab a borderline starter/backup type, much like Yan Gomes was when we first acquired him. Jansen, Kelly, and Higashioka all fit the bill. I have no strong preferences as to whom.

Start the season with Amaya/Veteran. Give Amaya a chance to prove some of the late season adjustments may lead to full-season success. If Amaya bombs, it's Ballasteros' time to get a shot. At worst, he should be able to adequately back up one of the veterans.

I don't think trading a bunch of assets for a guy like Langeliers is a good bet.

[JBears79]

Im completely against trading Cam Smith and Matt Shaw. Mostly because Parades has been unimpressive so far. Id like to have some potential depth at 3rd long term. I could be talked into Horton in the right deal just because hes a pitcher. 

I could be talked into moving Cassie and KA as well in the right move. But im definetly keeping one of them.

Cassie depends on if Belli opts out or not. Alcantara is also a guy id love to keep just because of the ceiling. He also needs another full year at AAA imo.

Triantos is the main guy im shopping this year. I think hes gonna be a quality MLB player but the lack of a defensive position and the lack of power at the moment make me question what his ceiling can be.

Mo Baller is definetly on the block for me too. Would love to keep him because i think the bat is special but too many question marks defensively.

 

This is gonna be a tough offseason but it is definetly time to cash some chips in

 

Edited September 13, 2024 by JBears79

[Tim]

To me, it is ridiculously easy to plan an "ideal" offseason.

1. Sign Soto. That provides a massive boost to the offense and we really don't need much more than that.
2. Sign Kelly or other vet catcher of choice.
3. Trade for a pitcher. We've got too many players on the cusp without a place to play. I'd prefer pretty much any of the Seattle guys, but get a good one from someone. We've got seven top 100 guys. Trade three of them to get someone good.
4. Sign another starting pitcher - my preference would be Flaherty if he's not ridiculously expensive. But get somebody. This also strengthens the bullpen by pushing some of the young starters into the pen.
5. Sign Robertson or another leverage reliever that doesn't require term. 

That probably puts us over the cap whether Bellinger opts out or not. Maybe try to include Hoerner in the pitching trade to save a little cash. In which case, be sure to keep both Shaw and Triantos to have multiple choices for 2B. Could also skip the second starter as that's more of a luxury than absolute necessity).

The offense gets a huge boost from Soto, PCA continued growth, and better catcher play. Replace Hendricks with (seattle pitcher). Add depth to the leverage side of the pen and have Hodge for a whole year.

With just expected luck on health & performance I think that's a 90-95 win team.

[spaincubsfan]

The basis of this idea is that you can never have enough pitching, and the holes we had due the injuries (Steele, Wicks, Brown, etc). And you can't ignore the Prof's diffulties as having contributed to 5-6 losses.

My hypothetical trades: 

Seattle trades: Bryce Miller RHP TOR starter (3.5-4 fWAR), top prospect Harry Ford (C) 50 FV

Cubs trade: Kevin Alcántara, Matt Shaw, Moises Ballesteros (All FV 50), & Matt Mervis (35+ FV), MLB player Daniel Paliencia for their BP.

That addresses starting pitching and your catching but you give up 3 top 100 prospects plus a possible lottery ticket in Mervis. It may seem top heavy from our side but you have to give to get. And even then some may say it is not enough going to the Mariners or vice versa.

In a second trade I would send over Triantos & Cruz (both 45+ FV) to the Jays for 1 year of Vlad Jr. If he finishes 2025 with an fWAR of 6+ he will command 35-40M per year. See if he bites during the season on a 6/225M extension with an AAV of 37.5M and opt outs in years 3 & 4.

Edited September 13, 2024 by spaincubsfan