What would be your ideal offseason?

[Bertz]

My mind is on something like this currently 

- Sign Yusei Kikuchi 3/$60M

- Sign Clay Holmes 2/$20M

- Sign Danny Jansen 2/$16

- Sign Josh Rojas 1/$5

- Sign Randal Grichuk 1/$5

- Trade Kevin Alcantara and Javier Assad for Jesus Luzardo and Andrew Nardi

Luzardo is a risk and coming off of a mostly lost year, but a year ago at this time was viewed as a #1 starter.  It's the type of gamble you can only feel comfortable making because of the depth in front of him and behind him.  If Luzardo rebounds, adding him and Kikuchi gives the team a real chance at a best in the league type rotation.

Holmes gives us the legit closer we've lacked the last few years, while Nardi is merely a matchup lefty but one hell of one.  On top of what's already in house the pen again looks like it has a chance to be a weapon.  The depth looks great, there's a much better chance of this group surviving three guys going down at once than there was last year.

The position players are all about adding depth and complimentary skills.  Rojas is a mediocre lefty bat and strong defensive infielder.  His role is subbing in for Paredes or Hoerner when we want the lineup to be more left handed and/or complimenting Shaw if someone on the infield goes on the IL.  Grichuk has settled in as one of the best lefty mashers in the league.  Jansen is far more talented than most backup catchers but has durability concerns preventing him from demanding starter level work.  This lineup, particularly when you add in what's at Iowa, is ludicrously deep and should be as well equipped as anyone to survive the six month grind.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

5 hours ago, Bertz said:

My mind is on something like this currently 

- Sign Yusei Kikuchi 3/$60M

- Sign Clay Holmes 2/$20M

- Sign Danny Jansen 2/$16

- Sign Josh Rojas 1/$5

- Sign Randal Grichuk 1/$5

- Trade Kevin Alcantara and Javier Assad for Jesus Luzardo and Andrew Nardi

 

I have a very similar mental model for the offseason, you can swap some names in and out with minimal difference too(Kikuchi/Eovaldi, Jansen/Kelly, Grichuk/Laureano, Holmes/Robertson).  

The thing I really wish I had a better handle on is how they felt about the non-optionable relievers.  Even setting aside Thompson who may yet have a split contract, you've got Merryweather, Miller, Pearson, and at least one FA.  Do they add another one they like to play the odds that someone falls apart or gets hurt before the options cause trouble?  Or do they bank that money for the rest of the offseason(including the possibility of 2 SP) and lean on the SP prospects as further pen reinforcement that will shake itself out? 

The answer to that goes a long way to thinking about RP targets, because espeically post-tender deadline there's a number of guys I'm interested in, but not if they're the only other RP added to the mix.

[Rcal10]

5 hours ago, Bertz said:

My mind is on something like this currently 

- Sign Yusei Kikuchi 3/$60M

- Sign Clay Holmes 2/$20M

- Sign Danny Jansen 2/$16

- Sign Josh Rojas 1/$5

- Sign Randal Grichuk 1/$5

- Trade Kevin Alcantara and Javier Assad for Jesus Luzardo and Andrew Nardi

Luzardo is a risk and coming off of a mostly lost year, but a year ago at this time was viewed as a #1 starter.  It's the type of gamble you can only feel comfortable making because of the depth in front of him and behind him.  If Luzardo rebounds, adding him and Kikuchi gives the team a real chance at a best in the league type rotation.

Holmes gives us the legit closer we've lacked the last few years, while Nardi is merely a matchup lefty but one hell of one.  On top of what's already in house the pen again looks like it has a chance to be a weapon.  The depth looks great, there's a much better chance of this group surviving three guys going down at once than there was last year.

The position players are all about adding depth and complimentary skills.  Rojas is a mediocre lefty bat and strong defensive infielder.  His role is subbing in for Paredes or Hoerner when we want the lineup to be more left handed and/or complimenting Shaw if someone on the infield goes on the IL.  Grichuk has settled in as one of the best lefty mashers in the league.  Jansen is far more talented than most backup catchers but has durability concerns preventing him from demanding starter level work.  This lineup, particularly when you add in what's at Iowa, is ludicrously deep and should be as well equipped as anyone to survive the six month grind.

I like it. But not sure they go with 4 lefties in the rotation. Also not sure Marlins agree to that deal. Maybe Eovaldi instead of Kikuchi? Like the bats you suggested. Solid bench bats. 

[Rex Buckingham]

Any concern of being too lefthanded in the rotation if they sign Kikuchi? Top 3 would be lefties (Steele, Shota, Kikuchi)

[Transmogrified Tiger]

13 minutes ago, Rex Buckingham said:

Any concern of being too lefthanded in the rotation if they sign Kikuchi? Top 3 would be lefties (Steele, Shota, Kikuchi)

I think if their pitch mix and approach to hitters is different enough it's not a complete dealbreaker, but I do think it's suboptimal.  I would probably still take Kikuchi over Eovaldi simply because I think there's a chance Kikuchi is elite after his pitch mix change post-trade, but I'd definitely target a RHP in trade if I went that way.

[Bertz]

16 hours ago, Transmogrified Tiger said:

 

I have a very similar mental model for the offseason, you can swap some names in and out with minimal difference too(Kikuchi/Eovaldi, Jansen/Kelly, Grichuk/Laureano, Holmes/Robertson).  

The thing I really wish I had a better handle on is how they felt about the non-optionable relievers.  Even setting aside Thompson who may yet have a split contract, you've got Merryweather, Miller, Pearson, and at least one FA.  Do they add another one they like to play the odds that someone falls apart or gets hurt before the options cause trouble?  Or do they bank that money for the rest of the offseason(including the possibility of 2 SP) and lean on the SP prospects as further pen reinforcement that will shake itself out? 

The answer to that goes a long way to thinking about RP targets, because espeically post-tender deadline there's a number of guys I'm interested in, but not if they're the only other RP added to the mix.

I wouldn't be surprised if they added two RP from here, with the second being lower salary like I have above.  While the group is light on options, it's also light on salary.  Pearson at a $1.4M is projected as highest paid player currently.  While no options obviously means you can't shuttle them up and down, cutting anyone who goes all Neris on us is still fairly painless unless it's Holmes.

And yeah I'm not too worried about being too left handed.  If the Cards still had prime Arenado and Goldschmidt I might reconsider, but as is I don't think having a rotation with 4 lefties is any worse than one with 4 righties.