Cubs Trading for Isaac Paredes?!

[Tim]

My concerns about Paredes in one chart:

[CUBDOM4life]

I don't know why I was under the impression Paredes becomes a FA after next year... Turns out he's cost controlled until 2028, and because of that, I think this trade was a huge steal for the Cubs considering 3B is such a hard position to lock down right now.

[Tim]

1 minute ago, Transmogrified Tiger said:

The consistency is the skill, he is not coordinated enough to be able to regularly make all the movements needed to be successful.  He doesn't make errors for lack of concentration, it's because he is not able to make the subtle physical adjustments to the variety of plays he faces as a pro infielder, despite years of repetitions.

Maybe it's just a bias from my limited sample in watching, but it seems like he makes more errors when he has extra time, not when he has to rush and make plays from odd angles.

[WhyCantWeWin]

1 minute ago, Tim said:

My concerns about Paredes in one chart:

Basically the opposite of Morel who was underperforming his xwOBA

[JBears79]

Didnt see this coming but first glance I like it. Dislike giving up Bigge though.

Move Taillon next.

[Tryptamine]

Just now, CUBDOM4life said:

I don't know why I was under the impression Paredes becomes a FA after next year... Turns out he's cost controlled until 2028, and because of that, I think this trade was a huge steal for the Cubs considering 3B is such a hard position to lock down right now.

This is the big take away. Yeah, Parades is probably not a 4 fWAR guy with the Cubs, but given how shallow the 3B talent is across MLB, even as a 3 fWAR guy he's probably a top 10 3B. 

[Tim]

Just now, WhyCantWeWin said:

Basically the opposite of Morel who was underperforming his xwOBA

Which one is the smart organization? I guess we'll find out

[jersey cubs fan]

4 minutes ago, Tim said:

Maybe it's just a bias from my limited sample in watching, but it seems like he makes more errors when he has extra time, not when he has to rush and make plays from odd angles.

[sneakypower]

buy high, sell low- hey that's just good arbitrage

[squally1313]

1 minute ago, Tim said:

Which one is the smart organization? I guess we'll find out

Not saying you're ignoring the nuance, but obviously more than wOBA v xwOBA. Rays have 2 top ten prospects on the left side of the infield, one killing AA and the other putting up a 110 wRC at AAA. Lowe is getting expensive-for-the Rays at second. Morel is a bat they obviously think they can unlock who is dirt cheap for approximately forever. 

Cubs could have believed a lot in Morel's bat, but you aren't picking his offense over Suzuki's in the near future, and they both pretty clearly have the same one spot in the lineup. Now instead of trying to find that premium bat (which probably isn't Paredes) that can also somehow play third, you've got CF (Robert) and RF (Soto, numerous other options) to play with, with PCA and Bellinger there to fit around whatever you pick up. And that's before Caissie and Shaw come up to complicate things. 

Anyways, terrified, risk averse, just following the bosses orders Jed is suddenly the talk of the town. Need to reset some priors around here. 

[Transmogrified Tiger]

14 minutes ago, Tim said:

My concerns about Paredes in one chart:

Players who make a ton of contact and still hit the ball in the air tend to do that.

[Irrelevant Dude]

Outside of the Cubs trading Taillon, Bellinger, or Neris, this probably clinches the luxury tax, right?  Which isn't a big deal really, unless it comes back to impact spending in future years because it forces a reset a year earlier than would otherwise have been the case.

[UMFan83]

6 minutes ago, Transmogrified Tiger said:

Players who make a ton of contact and still hit the ball in the air tend to do that.

I was going to ask...if a player outperforms his xOBA 4 years in a row its probably not a fluke right?

[Rob]

1 minute ago, UMFan83 said:

I was going to ask...if a player outperforms his xOBA 4 years in a row its probably not a fluke right?

It's less likely, but it may not be entirely due to factors under his control. Such as the ballpark...

[UMFan83]

 

😭

[Transmogrified Tiger]

Just now, UMFan83 said:

I was going to ask...if a player outperforms his xOBA 4 years in a row its probably not a fluke right?

Since the start of last year, 5 players have a FB% over 45% and a K% under 18%: Paredes, Mookie Betts, Yordan Alvarez, Kyle Tucker, and Will Smith.  They don't all overperform xwOBA to the same extent, but I think this grouping makes the point about what the overperformance may actually be representing(a skill and not variance that will inevitably regress).  

[Tim]

1 minute ago, UMFan83 said:

I was going to ask...if a player outperforms his xOBA 4 years in a row its probably not a fluke right?

Perhaps. But...

1. If you think the underlying performance is random, you'd still have 6% of players overperform 4 years in a row
2. It's only three years in a row, which would be a 12.5% chance
3. In Detroit, he underperformed his expected values. It was only in Tampa where they were exceeded

So...maybe? Probably? But there's real risk there.

[squally1313]

1 minute ago, UMFan83 said:

 

😭

Could be wrong, but I'm pretty sure that's not what Philippians 4:13 says. 

[Tim]

3 minutes ago, Transmogrified Tiger said:

Since the start of last year, 5 players have a FB% over 45% and a K% under 18%: Paredes, Mookie Betts, Yordan Alvarez, Kyle Tucker, and Will Smith.  They don't all overperform xwOBA to the same extent, but I think this grouping makes the point about what the overperformance may actually be representing(a skill and not variance that will inevitably regress).  

This makes me feel better about things. Paredes doesn't seem like he fits into a general profile with those guys, but if he can maintain that profile it is certainly a good sign.

[Petrey10]

11 minutes ago, Irrelevant Dude said:

Outside of the Cubs trading Taillon, Bellinger, or Neris, this probably clinches the luxury tax, right?  Which isn't a big deal really, unless it comes back to impact spending in future years because it forces a reset a year earlier than would otherwise have been the case.

Well I think the next step in this situation is to trade surplus…

1) Taillon

2) Neris

3) one of Belli, Happ Suzuki…. I honestly don’t care which. But we need an impact young player to do this. So you kick the one with the best young guy.

 

 

[UMFan83]

2 minutes ago, Rob said:

It's less likely, but it may not be entirely due to factors under his control. Such as the ballpark...

His numbers on the road are definitely lower than at home in each of the last 3 seasons.  Don't know if I can find xOBA for road games only vs home but overall:

2024 home:  

.242/.371/.462/.833, 9 HR, 21 XBH, .362 wOBA, 145 wRC+

2024 away:

.251/.338/.413/.752, 7 HR, 15 XBH, .331 wOBA, 115 wRC+

 

2023 home:

.261/.368/.544/.913, 18 HR, 28 XBH, .388 wOBA, 159 wRC+

2023 away:

.241/.338/.440/.778, 13 HR, 27 XBH, .340 wOBA, 116 wRC+

 

2022 home:

.210/.320/.510/.830, 11 HR, 21 XBH, .355 wOBA, 143 wRC+

2022 away:

.202/.292/.378/.670, 9 HR, 15 XBH, .298 wOBA, 93 wRC+

[Stratos]

1 hour ago, Bertz said:

I do not feel great about Paredes' offense fully translating to Wrigley Field, but fixing 3B and doing so with a guy as cheap as Paredes significantly raises the ceiling on next year's team.

I believe Wrigley has the furthest foul poles in the majors, and Paredes is a dead-pull hitter where all his power is right down the LF line, especially this year.  His bat speed and exit velo are actually poor.

I think this can be a solid trade for both teams.

- Parades can help the Cubs both this season and going forward, and gives them flexibility with Shaw/Triantos, meaning the Cubs could trade one of Nico/Swanson in coming seasons if they wanted, or deal either of those prospects (less likely).

- Morel has upside for TB if they can find a position for him.

-Interesting that the Cubs continue to deal away quality pen talent (e.g. Effross, Bigge) despite pen woes the last 2 seasons .  Guess they have faith in finding projects like Merryweather and Pearson and developing them.

[Post Count Padder]

I love Morel and this hurts. Am going to miss his energy and personality. But this is a trade you make 10 times out of 10. Johnson is whatever and Bigge is replaceable. And Paredes is controlled for several seasons. I hated trading Paredes in the first place. That was a bad trade then. 

[UMFan83]

Basically from what I'm reading Statcast ignores batted ball direction when calculating xOBA, so it treats a ceter/oppo fly ball (which are much worse batted ball types) the same as a pulled fly ball (the best batted ball type).  Thus, extreme pull hitters are much more likely to outperform their xOBA because a majority of their fly balls are pulled.   

Some other heavy pulled ball hitters are guys like Jose Ramirez and Marcus Semien, 2 guys who also outperform their xOBA more often than not.

I could be regurgitating this information wrong, feel free to pick apart.

[Stratos]

1 hour ago, WhyCantWeWin said:

I think the Cubs will regret this deal in a few years but this move does make them better immediately 

If Morel can't field and doesn't have a future at a position on this team where he might be ok (middle infield?) then I can't see them regretting trading Morel.

Morel's a DH for us going forward, especially when Shaw arrives.  We have Ballesteros and literally any other prospect or player who can play DH.  I would trade a DH for a solid 3B any day, especially for a team that needs a 3B bad.  The fact that this actually improves us on paper for 2024 and we don't have to throw this season away is a plus too.  Taillon or others could still be moved though.