Giants (Webb) vs Cubs (Steele): 6/18/24, 7:05pm

[Brock Beauchamp]

What the horsefeathers is wrong with this team?

Besides the obvious.

[I owned a Suzuki]

Whatever

[LBiittner]

Imanaga has to be questioning his decision on his choice of teams. I'd be curious if he has an unreported "out" in his deal.

For his sake, he deserves better. Maybe he can opt out and get to a certain Cali club this coming offseason?

[I owned a Suzuki]

10 minutes ago, LBiittner said:

Imanaga has to be questioning his decision on his choice of teams. I'd be curious if he has an unreported "out" in his deal.

For his sake, he deserves better. Maybe he can opt out and get to a certain Cali club this coming offseason?

Probably get a real nice haul for him, if someone in charge actually knew what that was

[We Got The Whole 9]

Cubs exit velocity from being a playoff contender is outstanding

[Soul]

25 minutes ago, I owned a Suzuki said:

Probably get a real nice haul for him, if someone in charge actually knew what that was

Yeah Jed has no idea what a "nice haul" would be.

[squally1313]

yeah we should definitely trade the starting pitcher with a 1.89 ERA who we have under contract for 4 more years after this in the name of getting a 'nice haul'. Then if we get really lucky and somehow someone from that turns into a legit ace pitcher but the team plays crappy baseball for 7 weeks, we can trade that guy away for another 'nice haul'.  would be a fun cycle!

[Derwood]

27 minutes ago, squally1313 said:

yeah we should definitely trade the starting pitcher with a 1.89 ERA who we have under contract for 4 more years after this in the name of getting a 'nice haul'. Then if we get really lucky and somehow someone from that turns into a legit ace pitcher but the team plays crappy baseball for 7 weeks, we can trade that guy away for another 'nice haul'.  would be a fun cycle!

Some people are addicted to always being 2 years away from success

[WhyCantWeWin]

Im not saying they should trade him but could you imagine the massive haul they could get for Steele? Might be worthwhile if they do a full on rebuild but I doubt thats possible when you so many high dollar contracts that are unmovable 

[17 Seconds]

this organization did a good job making everyone think that constantly selling off your best players is a good strategy 

[I owned a Suzuki]

1 hour ago, squally1313 said:

yeah we should definitely trade the starting pitcher with a 1.89 ERA who we have under contract for 4 more years after this in the name of getting a 'nice haul'. Then if we get really lucky and somehow someone from that turns into a legit ace pitcher but the team plays crappy baseball for 7 weeks, we can trade that guy away for another 'nice haul'.  would be a fun cycle!

I was more joking about Jed than suggesting we trade Shota. Should of had my sarcasm font on

[Tryptamine]

25 minutes ago, WhyCantWeWin said:

Im not saying they should trade him but could you imagine the massive haul they could get for Steele? Might be worthwhile if they do a full on rebuild but I doubt thats possible when you so many high dollar contracts that are unmovable 

I wont lie, I've thought about what an Orioles trade would look like, especially now that they're lost Kyle Bradish for 2024 and most of 2025. You wouldn't even have to land Holliday and you could still get an absolute stacked package. Being able to pick 2 out of 3 from Basallo, Mayo, Kjerstad with a couple other lesser pieces would be very significant. I'd very much rather not go that direction but with 2024 looking like a throw away season and 2025 looking very questionable as to how competitive the Cubs will be, I wouldn't entirely rule it out.

[Rex Buckingham]

Trading someone who is already good (and looks to be here for the long-term) for guys who might be good is a wild thought. Good starting pitching is one of the hardest things to acquire, because it's so dang valuable. If at next year's TDL we have Steele/Shota/Wicks/Horton/Brown/Assad all pitching awesome and we still need a star bat, maybe we look to make a move. But the more likely scenario is that one (or more!) of those guys either turns into a pumpkin, has their arm explode in one way or another, or turns out to be just ok rather than really good and can't get us a star. 

[LBiittner]

2 hours ago, Soul said:

Yeah Jed has no idea what a "nice haul" would be.

It would definitely be a package that's 5 years away. Look at darvish for an example

[Stratos]

Looked into some numbers at Baseball Savant.  Morel, Swanson, and Amaya have been greatly unlucky according to expected stats like xBA, xSLG, xwOBA.  All of their xBA is around .255.  Nico is also trailing in xBA.  Hang in there folks.

However, Busch's BA is about 30 points higher than his xBA (around .223).

Oddities:  Leiter's splitter has generated the 5th most whiffs in the MLB.  Truly elite pitch.  Imanaga's 4-seamer is tied for 2nd in total run value for any pitch in the MLB (helped greatly by how much he throws it).  Assad's sinker is tied for 12th.  PCA is tied for being the 3rd fastest player in the MLB despite MLB.com grading him a 60 run tool.

[squally1313]

7 minutes ago, LBiittner said:

It would definitely be a package that's 5 years away. Look at darvish for an example

He traded for a top 100 prospect who is leading our team in offensive fWAR and is fourth at his position literally this past offseason. 

[Stratos]

2 hours ago, squally1313 said:

yeah we should definitely trade the starting pitcher with a 1.89 ERA who we have under contract for 4 more years after this in the name of getting a 'nice haul'. Then if we get really lucky and somehow someone from that turns into a legit ace pitcher but the team plays crappy baseball for 7 weeks, we can trade that guy away for another 'nice haul'.  would be a fun cycle!

On the plus, hopefully they'd be 19 years old in low-A ball and several years away from helping the team or being old enough to enter an alcohol-serving establishment.

[Stratos]

4 minutes ago, squally1313 said:

He traded for a top 100 prospect who is leading our team in offensive fWAR and is fourth at his position literally this past offseason. 

Michael Babushka has a higher wRC+ than Alonso and worth 50% more fWAR (1.5 vs 1.0)

[PackLandVA]

24 minutes ago, Stratos said:

Looked into some numbers at Baseball Savant.  Morel, Swanson, and Amaya have been greatly unlucky according to expected stats like xBA, xSLG, xwOBA.  All of their xBA is around .255.  Nico is also trailing in xBA.  Hang in there folks.

However, Busch's BA is about 30 points higher than his xBA (around .223).

 

 

I am not well-versed enough in most of these "new" stats, but I did look at these numbers in BS.  And as a team, the Cubs are second worst/unlucky in xBA and xSLG, and third worst in xwOBA. These numbers have to get better, right?

[muntjack]

Michael Busch has the 2nd highest OPS in the NL Central. 

Edited June 18, 2024 by muntjack
(Qualified)

[LBiittner]

40 minutes ago, squally1313 said:

He traded for a top 100 prospect who is leading our team in offensive fWAR and is fourth at his position literally this past offseason. 

Great. Can you wait 5 more freaking years for the next Jesus Christ to risen?

[Jason Ross]

12 minutes ago, PackLandVA said:

 

I am not well-versed enough in most of these "new" stats, but I did look at these numbers in BS.  And as a team, the Cubs are second worst/unlucky in xBA and xSLG, and third worst in xwOBA. These numbers have to get better, right?

In theory, yes. There's some negative variance here, and if Cub hitters continue the process by which they've gone about things, they should get better and regress to the mean. The problem is that there's no hard-and-fast rule on when luck changes, however, and it might not change today, tomorrow, or in July. They may also press and change their processes, in which, we should expect them to hit differently. And they may not ever get positive variance in which they over play their batted ball data and get their numbers on paper looking the way they should.

It's been a nightmare season for the Cubs in many ways; they've had bad injury luck, bad batter ball luck, and their BP has blown games left and right. At some point the Cubs have to perform and we can't just wait for the luck to turn around, too. So we're kind of at a crossroads that they kind of have to do something sometime soon if they're going to get out of the hole they've dug themselves.

[We Got The Whole 9]

10 minutes ago, PackLandVA said:

 

I am not well-versed enough in most of these "new" stats, but I did look at these numbers in BS.  And as a team, the Cubs are second worst/unlucky in xBA and xSLG, and third worst in xwOBA. These numbers have to get better, right?

Not necessarily. I mean, sure, they will probably move up a few slots but maybe not. Read some of the articles here that go into more depth. The Cubs don't hit line drives, they hit a ton of ground balls to the pull side, they hit a ton of flyballs to center and oppo. You are going to really struggle to get hits and runs if your offense does that. 

[LBiittner]

Leading the league in unluckiness is not something that gets you pennants, but undoubtedly much deserved penance

[Tryptamine]

31 minutes ago, We Got The Whole 9 said:

Not necessarily. I mean, sure, they will probably move up a few slots but maybe not. Read some of the articles here that go into more depth. The Cubs don't hit line drives, they hit a ton of ground balls to the pull side, they hit a ton of flyballs to center and oppo. You are going to really struggle to get hits and runs if your offense does that. 

I noticed this last night while looking at the batted ball data. The Cubs are the 3rd worst in the league at hitting line drives at 18.4%. They hit a ton of flyballs 40.1% which is the 5th most in the league, but their HR/FB% is 9.7 which is 20th in the league. It's almost like they're playing into a weakness. Then you have quality of contact

29.6 Hard% (20th)

53.5 MED% (10th)

16.9 SOFT% (10th)

Without digger deeper, it's almost like they went too far into launch angle for a team without tons of power and we're seeing the results. While last year they had a higher ld% and lower fb%.