Giants (Webb) vs Cubs (Steele): 6/18/24, 7:05pm

[We Got The Whole 9]

3 minutes ago, Tryptamine said:

I noticed this last night while looking at the batted ball data. The Cubs are the 3rd worst in the league at hitting line drives at 18.4%. They hit a ton of flyballs 40.1% which is the 5th most in the league, but their HR/FB% is 9.7 which is 20th in the league. It's almost like they're playing into a weakness. Then you have quality of contact

29.6 Hard% (20th)

53.5 MED% (10th)

16.9 SOFT% (10th)

Without digger deeper, it's almost like they went too far into launch angle for a team without tons of power and we're seeing the results. While last year they had a higher ld% and lower fb%.

 

42% of Cubs flyballs are oppo. 3rd highest in the league but less than half of a percentage point from leading the league. The league is slugging 270 on oppo flyballs. It's a recipe for turd sandwiches.

[Tryptamine]

10 minutes ago, We Got The Whole 9 said:

42% of Cubs flyballs are oppo. 3rd highest in the league but less than half of a percentage point from leading the league. The league is slugging 270 on oppo flyballs. It's a recipe for turd sandwiches.

This tells me exactly what I thought. It's a team hitting philosophy and not so much a player issue. They're playing away from the majority of the lineups strengths.

[mul21]

14 minutes ago, Tryptamine said:

This tells me exactly what I thought. It's a team hitting philosophy and not so much a player issue. They're playing away from the majority of the lineups strengths.

I've been saying for at least a month that they aren't hitting the ball the other way enough.  Dansby pulled a ball in the air to LF last night that was on the black (at best, maybe even outside) and it was a pitch he could have easily taken the other way. He's the biggest offender but I'm sure there's other guys doing the same thing.  Busch seems to have adapted the best and we've seen several left center gap shots from him of late.

[Tryptamine]

14 minutes ago, mul21 said:

I've been saying for at least a month that they aren't hitting the ball the other way enough.  Dansby pulled a ball in the air to LF last night that was on the black (at best, maybe even outside) and it was a pitch he could have easily taken the other way. He's the biggest offender but I'm sure there's other guys doing the same thing.  Busch seems to have adapted the best and we've seen several left center gap shots from him of late.

They actually go to the opposite field quite a bit. They have the second highest Oppo% in the league. The issue is that they're doing it in the air and there's only a few guys on this roster who have the kind of pop to consistently do damage to the opposite field, such as Busch. Guys like Nico, Tauchmann, Dansby, etc. aren't going to have consistent success doing this. Firing line drives or even grounders sure, but they don't the kind of pop necessary to go yard consistently to the opposite field. 

[mul21]

45 minutes ago, Tryptamine said:

They actually go to the opposite field quite a bit. They have the second highest Oppo% in the league. The issue is that they're doing it in the air and there's only a few guys on this roster who have the kind of pop to consistently do damage to the opposite field, such as Busch. Guys like Nico, Tauchmann, Dansby, etc. aren't going to have consistent success doing this. Firing line drives or even grounders sure, but they don't the kind of pop necessary to go yard consistently to the opposite field. 

Right, I'm agreeing with you that philosophy is the issue.  Hit lines drives opposite field, fly balls to the pull side.  I also think these numbers are being affected more for the Cubs than others by the ball, which I'm convinced is softer than it has been and isn't going as far.

[We Got The Whole 9]

47 minutes ago, mul21 said:

I've been saying for at least a month that they aren't hitting the ball the other way enough.  Dansby pulled a ball in the air to LF last night that was on the black (at best, maybe even outside) and it was a pitch he could have easily taken the other way. He's the biggest offender but I'm sure there's other guys doing the same thing.  Busch seems to have adapted the best and we've seen several left center gap shots from him of late.

Ultimately its a pitch-recognition issue. The team has a quasi-selectively agressive mindset where a lot of them seem to let the ball travel deeper than average and do not get out in front of a high% of pitches. If they recognized these pitches just a tick sooner, they'd punish more of them to the pull-side. They just aren't really that good at guessing/sitting on pitches, which is where a lot of HRs in general come from. I'm curious of their ranking in leveraged counts like 2-1 and 3-1 because I believe they'd be near the bottom of the league there. They don't really control ABs as much as they get credit for the walk rate and such.

[Tryptamine]

12 minutes ago, mul21 said:

Right, I'm agreeing with you that philosophy is the issue.  Hit lines drives opposite field, fly balls to the pull side.  I also think these numbers are being affected more for the Cubs than others by the ball, which I'm convinced is softer than it has been and isn't going as far.

Without a doubt. It's a perfect storm of things. A line up with, at best average power, add on top of that a dead ball and it exacerbates the issue even further. The reality is, I suspect it's less that the Cubs have been really unlucky and more that the Cubs have picked the absolute worst hitting philosophy given their roster talent and current MLB offensive conditions.

[Soul]

I’m sure this has been talked to death but during the post game show last night they were talking about how the Cubs just don’t have any plus fastballs on the staff. So even if the starters put in a good performance, the Cubs are relieving them with guys who don’t provide any additional velocity from the starter.

That made a lot of sense to me. I doubt it would 100% change the fortunes of the Cubs, but it’s one thing to think about that hitters don’t have to worry about a fireballer coming in and blowing it past them.

[Stratos]

2 hours ago, PackLandVA said:

 

I am not well-versed enough in most of these "new" stats, but I did look at these numbers in BS.  And as a team, the Cubs are second worst/unlucky in xBA and xSLG, and third worst in xwOBA. These numbers have to get better, right?

They're also last in MLB in BABIP.  I can't remember if that's for the whole year or since May 1st, but it's terrible and will get better.   It was around .300 last year, better than average. 

[Tryptamine]

10 minutes ago, Stratos said:

They're also last in MLB in BABIP.  I can't remember if that's for the whole year or since May 1st, but it's terrible and will get better.   It was around .300 last year, better than average. 

It might improve a bit but remember, their LD% is down and FB% is up. Line drives carry the highest babip and fly balls carry the lowest. So naturally their expected babip will be lower than 2023. 

[Stratos]

18 minutes ago, Tryptamine said:

Without a doubt. It's a perfect storm of things. A line up with, at best average power, add on top of that a dead ball and it exacerbates the issue even further. The reality is, I suspect it's less that the Cubs have been really unlucky and more that the Cubs have picked the absolute worst hitting philosophy given their roster talent and current MLB offensive conditions.

Expected stats say they've been unlucky though.

[Tryptamine]

Things I did not realize until today. Busch's 1.5 fWAR accounts for about 1/4 of the entire team's position player fWAR.

[Irrelevant Dude]

All is right with the world again.  Mastrobuoni is back!!!

 

 

Edited June 18, 2024 by Irrelevant Dude

[Jason Ross]

12 minutes ago, Irrelevant Dude said:

All is right with the world again.  Mastrobuoni is back!!!

 

 

I know Mastro is a running joke among fans, but this is good news if you want Petr Crow-Armstrong to play. It'll be Pete's show every day and Mastro has shown to be bench fodder when he's around more than once, with the club being willing to let him rot as the 26th man. 

[WhyCantWeWin]

12 minutes ago, 1908_Cubs said:

I know Mastro is a running joke among fans, but this is good news if you want Petr Crow-Armstrong to play. It'll be Pete's show every day and Mastro has shown to be bench fodder when he's around more than once, with the club being willing to let him rot as the 26th man. 

I swear to god if Mastrobuoni starts and PCA sits

[Transmogrified Tiger]

2 minutes ago, WhyCantWeWin said:

I swear to god if Mastrobuoni starts and PCA sits

good news, they're basically the same player at the plate right now so it barely matters for the offense

[DYMNO]

Are both Davis and Canario hurt? I just don’t get the Mastroboner call up. Why not try SOMETHING with this “opportunity”?

[Irrelevant Dude]

5 minutes ago, DYMNO said:

Are both Davis and Canario hurt? I just don’t get the Mastroboner call up. Why not try SOMETHING with this “opportunity”?

Canario is out of options.  If they call him up for a short stint as a replacement, they put themselves in a situation where they have to keep him on the roster or risk losing him (or having to trade him for less than what he is worth).  For Davis, I imagine they would rather have him keep getting at bats instead of coming up to mostly sit on the bench.  I wouldn't mind seeing him, but I can't really argue with leaving him in AAA for now.

And yes, they are also both hurt 😄

Edited June 18, 2024 by Irrelevant Dude

[Transmogrified Tiger]

3 minutes ago, DYMNO said:

Are both Davis and Canario hurt?

Yes.  Neither is believed to be serious but Davis hasn’t played in a week with bumps and bruises, and Canario left Saturday’s game with an unspecified injury.

[WhyCantWeWin]

9 minutes ago, Transmogrified Tiger said:

good news, they're basically the same player at the plate right now so it barely matters for the offense

But one has significant upside, we know that Mastrobuoni is a 29 year old AAAA player. Just gotta hope that PCA can bust out
 

[Transmogrified Tiger]

2 minutes ago, Irrelevant Dude said:

Canario is out of options.  If they call him up for a short stint as a replacement, they put themselves in a situation where they have to keep him on the roster or risk losing him (or having to trade him for less than what he is worth).  For Davis, I imagine they would rather have him keep getting at bats instead of coming up to mostly sit on the bench.  I wouldn't mind seeing him, but I can't really argue with leaving him in AAA for now.

And yes, they are also both hurt 😄

Canario has already used an option year by virtue of playing with the MLB team this year, so his option clock isn't hurt by any subsequent callups in 2024*

*Technically there are a maximum number of times you can go up/down in a year, but that number is I believe 5 so Canario is not at high risk.

[DYMNO]

3 minutes ago, Irrelevant Dude said:

Canario is out of options.  If they call him up for a short stint as a replacement, they put themselves in a situation where they have to keep him on the roster or risk losing him (or having to trade him for less than what he is worth).  For Davis, I imagine they would rather have him keep getting at bats instead of coming up to mostly sit on the bench.  I wouldn't mind seeing him, but I can't really argue with leaving him in AAA for now.

And yes, they are also both hurt 😄

Makes sense. Thanks. 

[Max Power]

6 hours ago, Derwood said:

Some people are addicted to always being 2 years away from success

One being Jed Hoyer.

[Irrelevant Dude]

5 minutes ago, Transmogrified Tiger said:

Canario has already used an option year by virtue of playing with the MLB team this year, so his option clock isn't hurt by any subsequent callups in 2024*

*Technically there are a maximum number of times you can go up/down in a year, but that number is I believe 5 so Canario is not at high risk.

I must have misread that somewhere, or more likely heard it on The Score and took it as fact.  So he is out of option YEARS, but can still be recalled and sent back to Iowa (within the limit) for the remainder of 2024.

[Jason Ross]

1 minute ago, Irrelevant Dude said:

I must have misread that somewhere, or more likely heard it on The Score and took it as fact.  So he is out of option YEARS, but can still be recalled and sent back to Iowa (within the limit) for the remainder of 2024.

Yes. Options have changed rules a few times over the years and some are behind on the new rules (not calling you out, saying the Score). Options are a full year and you can come up and down 5 times on the season.