Midseason Prospect List Updates

[Bertz]

5 minutes ago, CubinNY said:

I just did. the 80-20 scale that scouts use is an ordinal measure. Some scout says this guy has a 60 hit tool. Another guy has a 50 hit tool. The guy with the 60 hit tool is not 10 hit tools better. The scout thinks he's better based on his professional judgment. Fine. But it's based on order not on any real objective measure. Then they take all those and condense them into one number (which is even worse) because the number obscures the real attributes the player may have and rank orders them. The fact that numbers are used is irrelevant. There I'm done with this.

Honestly not as far off as I was expecting, but you're definitely misusing ordinal.

The individual grades are based on a bell curve, with every 10 points being a standard deviation.  Why 20-80 I have no idea but that'sthe scale.  And yes of course it's subjective (though increasingly less so) but the idea of e.g. slapping a 70 on a guy's curveball is to say "it's better than 95% of major league curveballs you'll see."

The FV values are a holistic player grade.  It's on that same 20-80 scale to give an attempt at that same bell curve treatment.  But mainly it's to get away from ordinal rankings and think more in tiers.  A 45 is not "5 FVs" better than a 40, it's a sign that player is a tier higher in projected quality.  FV rankings taking off on FG were to accomplish two things

1. Get people to stop freaking out about the difference between like #63 and #78 on a top 100 list

2. Have a way to compare the Cubs #8 prospect and the Angels #8 prospect.  Those two farms at totally separate ends of the quality spectrum, so despite that same #8 ranking those players are very very different in quality.

[CubinNY]

18 minutes ago, Bertz said:

Honestly not as far off as I was expecting, but you're definitely misusing ordinal.

The individual grades are based on a bell curve, with every 10 points being a standard deviation.  Why 20-80 I have no idea but that'sthe scale.  And yes of course it's subjective (though increasingly less so) but the idea of e.g. slapping a 70 on a guy's curveball is to say "it's better than 95% of major league curveballs you'll see."

The FV values are a holistic player grade.  It's on that same 20-80 scale to give an attempt at that same bell curve treatment.  But mainly it's to get away from ordinal rankings and think more in tiers.  A 45 is not "5 FVs" better than a 40, it's a sign that player is a tier higher in projected quality.  FV rankings taking off on FG were to accomplish two things

1. Get people to stop freaking out about the difference between like #63 and #78 on a top 100 list

2. Have a way to compare the Cubs #8 prospect and the Angels #8 prospect.  Those two farms at totally separate ends of the quality spectrum, so despite that same #8 ranking those players are very very different in quality.

You are missing the root measure. It does not matter if they are normalizing the numbers. The numbers are ordinal. It's the scale. The. Scale. Is. Ordinal.

1. People are now freaking out about a 45 FV vs a 40 FV

2. It's still ordinal so it's someone's opinion. 

 

Here is the thing. Those people who are doing the rankings are normally very good at what they are doing or else they would not be doing it. But it's based on their judgment, which is better than mine or most people outside of baseball. But then taking a judgment and hocus pocusing the judgments into numbers doesn't not magically make them better than what they are. It's an organizational system for ranking prospects according to performance and projectability. But, it's often wrong and there are inherent problems associated with distilling attributes into a ratio-type measure. 

 

BTW> The 20-80 scale was started by Branch Rickey. They took that scale and made standard deviations based on each 10 points. 

Edit: Also, it's a no no in science to use standard deviations with ordinal data.

Edited June 6, 2024 by CubinNY

[CaliforniaRaisin]

17. Cade Horton
30. Matt Shaw
35. Owen Caissie
54. James Triantos
61. Moisés Ballesteros
66. Kevin Alcántara
87. Jefferson Rojas

[CubinNY]

Quote

Highest risers
+31 Kevin McGonigle, SS/2B, Tigers (96 to 65)
+28 Moises Ballesteros, C/1B, Cubs (89 to 61)

 

[CaliforniaRaisin]

31. Cade Horton
37. Matt Shaw
42. Owen Caissie
47. Jefferson Rojas
60. Moisés Ballesteros
76. Kevin Alcántara
99. James Triantos

[CaliforniaRaisin]

 

1. Cade Horton
2. Matt Shaw
3. Owen Caissie
4. Jefferson Rojas
5. Moisés Ballesteros
6. Kevin Alcántara
7. James Triantos
8. Fernando Cruz
9. Pedro Ramírez
10. Alexander Canario
11. Brandon Birdsell
12. Michael Árias
13. Jaxon Wiggins
14. Porter Hodge
15. Yohendrick Piñango
16. Matt Mervis
17. Luis Vázquez 
18. Will Sanders
19. BJ Murray
20. Brody McCullough
21. Cristian Hernández
22. Pablo Aliendo
23. Drew Gray
24. Haydn McGeary
25. Nazier Mulé
26. Kohl Franklin
27. Alfonsin Rosario
28. Brett Bateman
29. Brennen Davis
30. Josh Rivera

[Bertz]

Quote

15. Yohendrick Pinango

[sneakypower]

really odd their '22 top-100 prospect SS currently has the best wRC+ of any 20yo in his league (and only two younger players are hitting better) and that has somehow free-fallen him to outside org. top-20

they really badly missed the mark on one of these evals

also still rating McGeary as a prospect makes me think you're no longer paying attention

Edited July 9, 2024 by sneakypower

[Tryptamine]

22 minutes ago, sneakypower said:

really odd their '22 top-100 prospect SS currently has the best wRC+ of any 20yo in his league (and only two younger players are hitting better) and that has somehow free-fallen him to outside org. top-20

they really badly missed the mark on one of these evals

also still rating McGeary as a prospect makes me think you're no longer paying attention

The omission of Cristian Hernandez was extremely glaring to me as well.

Edited July 9, 2024 by Tryptamine

[Bertz]

I didn't like Alcantara at 8 initially but marinating in it that might actually be right.  Otherwise move each of Sanders and Birdsell about 8 spots in opposite directions and this feels right on.

[sneakypower]

i really dislike the way he formatted his ordering there

[Transmogrified Tiger]

2 minutes ago, sneakypower said:

i really dislike the way he formatted his ordering there

 

Cubs        Rankings

Prospect  July 2024

[JD94]

32 minutes ago, TomtheBombadil said:

Seems Cubs have slipped from the preseason ZiPs top 100. It cracks me up how it’s incon-horsefeathers-ceivable for many Cubs fans to make the leap from “nern of der prospects are guaranteed super mega ultra duper stars” to “maybe we should trade/SELL some”

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/catching-up-on-the-zips-top-100-prospects/

Matt Shaw has a 134 wRC+ and on pace for around 20 home runs and that’s not a top 100 prospect? Lol 

[Rex Buckingham]

https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/5656143/2024/07/25/mlb-top-prospects-2024-jackson-holliday/

Keith Law's update

Matt Shaw at 17

Quote

The Cubs’ first-round pick from last year started slow with some terrible BABIP luck, but he’s been rolling lately across the board, hitting for average and power while bouncing between short, third, and second to maintain his flexibility. He was a little closed off when I saw him at the Futures Game, which isn’t his normal setup, but regardless it isn’t inhibiting him at the plate at all. With Christopher Morel below replacement level this year, there should be an opportunity for Shaw to come up and take some at-bats and reps at third base.

Kevin Alcantara at 27 

Quote

Alcántara has held steady this year as a 21-year-old (by his seasonal age) in Double A, keeping his strikeout rate low for a 6-6 hitter and making hard contact without a ton of game power yet, with plenty of projection remaining on his frame. He just turned 22 last week, so he’s right on track with college juniors drafted last year, a large number of whom are in Double A as well, but offers a wider range of potential outcomes with first-round upside if he keeps the contact rate steady as he fills out.

Cade Horton at 36

Quote

Horton has been out since late May with a strain to the subscapularis muscle in his right shoulder; it’s the largest muscle in the rotator cuff, so I doubt the Cubs will rush him back. Before then, he’d continued to show a plus slider and plus changeup but had run into a little trouble with hard contact on the fastball in his brief time in Triple A. He’s a starter of some sort, with his ceiling a function of what he does with the fastball going forward, whether it’s trying a different grip (perhaps a two-seamer?) or just deprecating it further to use the offspeed stuff more.

Mo Baller at 54

Quote

Everyone agrees Ballesteros can hit, and he’s already getting stronger, topping out at a 109 mph exit velocity in his brief time so far in Triple A even though he’s just 20 years old. The question is his position; he’s nominally a catcher but below-average back there, with a body that does not look like it’s going to fare well under the workload of a catcher. He’s listed on MiLB.com at 5-7, 195 pounds, but Baseball Reference's 215 lbs looks more accurate, and while we can point to Alejandro Kirk as a successful catcher with this build, that’s survivor bias (and maybe wishful thinking). Ballesteros does look like he’ll hit enough to play another position, but he also has the opportunity to work on his conditioning and focus more on improving his blocking and receiving skills. If he does stick behind the plate, he’s a future All-Star.

 

[JBears79]

No Cassie is weird to me. Wonder where he has Cam Smith and Triantos right now

[Tryptamine]

If I remember correctly, Law has always kind of hated Caissie and getting Law to change his mind just doesn't happen.

[Post Count Padder]

4 hours ago, Tryptamine said:

If I remember correctly, Law has always kind of hated Caissie and getting Law to change his mind just doesn't happen.

Yeah I haven't read Law's stuff much but IIRC he's painfully stubborn. And a bit of a contrarian. 

[CaliforniaRaisin]

He's more down on Caissie than the general national consensus but this is also only a top-60 prospect list, not a top 100.

[Cubs420psd]

Is Rojas ranking almost entirely attributed to his ridiculously young age for high A, or are there some performance indicators I am missing? 

Edited July 28, 2024 by Cubs420psd

[Tryptamine]

17 minutes ago, Cubs420psd said:

Is Rojas ranking almost entirely attributed to his ridiculously young age for high A, or are there some performance indicators I am missing? 

Last year he put up an 115 wRC+ at A ball, at age 18, at a premium defensive position and projects to have an above average to plus hit tool and above average power. This year has been slightly disappointing and he'll probably repeat A+ unless he finishes hot.

[mul21]

https://www.espn.com/mlb/insider/story/_/id/40733088/2024-mlb-prospect-rankings-update-farm-systems-top-30-teams-draft-trade-deadline

 

Quote

 

12. Chicago Cubs -- $249 million

Current top prospect: Matt Shaw, 3B

Preseason ranking: 2nd, $328 million

What has happened since: Pete Crow-Armstrong, Jordan Wicks, Ben Brown and Michael Busch are notable graduates, which explains most of the lost value from their lofty preseason ranking. Cade Horton has stalled a bit this season while Moises Ballesteros and Jefferson Rojas have broken into the Top 100 conversation. Cam Smith and Cole Mathis are collegiate power hitters who headline the Cubs' draft haul while arrow-up prospects Ty Johnson and Hunter Bigge were dealt to the Rays in the Isaac Paredes trade at the deadline.

 

Orioles are #1 with $361 million in value.

[Tryptamine]

18 minutes ago, mul21 said:

https://www.espn.com/mlb/insider/story/_/id/40733088/2024-mlb-prospect-rankings-update-farm-systems-top-30-teams-draft-trade-deadline

 

Orioles are #1 with $361 million in value.

No mention of Alcantara, Caissie or Triantos

[CaliforniaRaisin]

Midseason BA has them at 11:

 

[Donzo]

I have no issue with the drop. It makes sense with Horton not pitching since June and PCA's gradution from the system.

Edited August 9, 2024 by Donzo

[CaliforniaRaisin]

25. Matt Shaw
31. Cade Horton
36, Owen Caissie
44. Moisés Ballesteros
60, James Triantos
74. Kevin Alcántara