Midseason Prospect List Updates

[CaliforniaRaisin]

Also MLB Pipeline updated their Cubs top 30:

Cubs Top Prospects | MLB.com

WWW.MLB.COM

---

The Official Site of Major League Baseball

 

[mul21]

10 hours ago, CaliforniaRaisin said:

Also MLB Pipeline updated their Cubs top 30:

Cubs Top Prospects | MLB.com

WWW.MLB.COM

---

The Official Site of Major League Baseball

 

How many other teams have guys at 24 like Birdsell who have an actual real shot at being an MLB contributor?  That seems really far back in that list for a guy with his potential.

[Tryptamine]

Pretty much in agreement with the people in the top 10, not exactly the same order, but it's the same people people. I have Southisene up higher, Cowles up higher and I also have Lovich in my top 30. They are way higher on Pedro Ramirez then I was, but I'm probably too low even if I still think they're a bit high. I think there's a decent chance Cristian Hernandez slides into the #10 slot if he continues putting up numbers in A+ following his recent promotion.

Also, I'm already terrified that Cam Smith has K'd in 7 of his 11 PAs at a level he frankly should be crushing. Extremely small sample size and all that, but it definitely has me nervous.

[CaliforniaRaisin]

1 hour ago, mul21 said:

How many other teams have guys at 24 like Birdsell who have an actual real shot at being an MLB contributor?  That seems really far back in that list for a guy with his potential.

Yeah, I think Birdsell is underrated here, especially with the velocity bump and the new slider/cutter that is getting swings and misses.

[Tryptamine]

9 minutes ago, CaliforniaRaisin said:

Yeah, I think Birdsell is underrated here, especially with the velocity bump and the new slider/cutter that is getting swings and misses.

My guess is that gets adjusted after the guys at BA/FG/ETC. get a chance to set down and talk with scouts at the end of the year for their end of season rankings. At that point I'd expect he'll be in the 13-15 range.

[CubinNY]

It's a pretty strong 30 IMO. I wish there were one or two more mashers. The Cubs have a lot of bat-to-ball types. I suppose the Hendry days of Dopirak et al. produced nothing so I get it. 

[JBears79]

Damn I like that LHH Pat Burrell comp for Cassie a lot. I think he's had a great season. We just need to see some more in game power imo. 

[Tryptamine]

I'm actually rather disappointed with the season Caissie has had. Yeah he's putting up a 110 wRC+ in AAA in his age 21 season which is nice, but that power stroke he found last year is just gone again. 

[JBears79]

16 minutes ago, Tryptamine said:

I'm actually rather disappointed with the season Caissie has had. Yeah he's putting up a 110 wRC+ in AAA in his age 21 season which is nice, but that power stroke he found last year is just gone again. 

I understand that perspective. I just think he needs another offseason in the weight room and maybe a half year at AAA? To be honest, I think him repeating AAA wouldn't be a bad idea. 

Overall he's held his own while being almost 5 years younger than the average age. I'd call that a successful season imo. 

Edited August 14, 2024 by JBears79

[mul21]

This ESPN top 100 is, uh, something.  Wildly different than anything else we've seen.

37. Moises Ballesteros, C, Chicago Cubs/AAA, Age: 20.7

60. Kevin Alcantara, CF, Chicago Cubs/AAA, Age: 22.1

63. Owen Caissie, RF, Chicago Cubs/AAA, Age: 22.1

74. Matt Shaw, 3B, Chicago Cubs/AAA, Age: 22.8

95. Cade Horton, RHP, Chicago Cubs/AAA, Age: 23.0

99. Jefferson Rojas, SS, Chicago Cubs/High-A, Age: 19.3

https://www.espn.com/mlb/insider/story/_/id/40846519/2024-midseason-top-100-mlb-prospects-rankings-update-kiley-mcdaniel

Edited August 14, 2024 by mul21

[Outshined_One]

2 hours ago, TomtheBombadil said:

11 - Ethan Hearn C - LH power with one of the system’s more consistently interesting approaches at C keeps him firmly in the game. Could be “just” a LHH Higashioka or, with some luck, the spiritual successor to Busch as an ancient but riveting LHH 2 way rookie

 

[Outshined_One]

2 hours ago, Tryptamine said:

Also, I'm already terrified that Cam Smith has K'd in 7 of his 11 PAs at a level he frankly should be crushing. Extremely small sample size and all that, but it definitely has me nervous.

It's a bit troubling, but the Cubs have also shown improvement in making swing and approach adjustments to their power hitters compared to the Hendry era.  I wouldn't read too much into it, particularly considering Myrtle Beach had the extended hurricane layoff and he just finished playing a full college season.

If this keeps up next season, then it will undeniably be cause for concern.

[JBears79]

What am I missing here with Hearn? He looks like a future org depth catcher to me.

[mul21]

2 minutes ago, JBears79 said:

What am I missing here with Hearn? He looks like a future org depth catcher to me.

He's one of Tom's pets and that's really it.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

Here are some things that might make a player a good catching prospect.

• Hitting for Average: Hearn has career high .230 average this year and has historically run very low BABIPs given his K rate
• Hitting for Power: Hearn has done this decently well(roughly .200 IsoP), with the caveat that he's repeating the level when he does so
• Take walks: After previously showing some eye for free passes, Hearn's walk rate is below league average at 8%
• Make contact:  Long a problem, he's striking out 29% of the time in his second go round at A+
• Perform well relative to age and league: Hearn turns 24 in 2 weeks and is still in A ball so he's behind the curve. On the worst offensive roster in the org he's 4th among regulars in OPS. He's also either outside the Top 10 in OPS or in the back half(depending on your definition) of catchers in the MWL
• Avoid errors/misplays: Hearn has 18 errors in 53 games behind the plate, a rate that has been pretty steady at each level
• Throw out baserunners: Hearn's 18% CS% is worse than the league average of 23%

[CaliforniaRaisin]

26 minutes ago, TomtheBombadil said:

That true catchers with power and approach don’t grow on trees and LHH at the position is very hip, in demand

Pay no attention to mul’s rhetoric! I like a prospect and its a big howdoyoudo. Meanwhile we’re like 4 years into the same group of names being parroted dogmatically within the echo chamber, crickets for results so far, and its still full steam ahead anyway. Currently hip names I was touting first include Rojas and Ballesteros both near consensus Top 100  and Top 10 org, peruse our 2020 draft thread and I’m a big Crow-Armstrong guy (Howard too womp womp but also Walker, Romo, Hinds, etc), also had Busch higher than everyone last year, Wicks over Horton, called Ethan Roberts getting a 40 spot etc etc 

Yes, yes. *You* were the first to tout Rojas and Ballesteros (maybe in a world Bryan Smith and Arizona Phil don't exist in) and called Ethan Roberts - who once before was on the 40-man - getting back on the 40-man.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

I agree that if you distill being a good prospect down to three things and pretend that Hearn is good at all of them, he is a good prospect.

[CaliforniaRaisin]

7 minutes ago, TomtheBombadil said:

Here? Absolutely true, and it was Roberts’ initial rostering

There were a few folks enamored with Rojas and Ballesteros in here too, based on signing bonus amount, DSL box scores and Arizona Phil's writeups. 

A few of us were pretty excited about Ethan Roberts before he made the 40-man too (some dating as far back as Tennessee Tech's NCAA run in his draft year).

Edit: Not sure why we're down this rabbit hole of hipster prospecting but whatever.

[Donzo]

4 hours ago, JBears79 said:

What am I missing here with Hearn? He looks like a future org depth catcher to me.

That's fair. He's spent four years in A ball and has only looked good the last seven weeks. Maybe another month or so in 2022, his second season at MB. I remember him going on a HR tear. Physically, he’s an ideal catching prospect. Good size, athletic, power potential and left handed. He just has to continue to produce.  

As of July 1st, his OPS was .570 in his second season in A+- not good. I was actually thinking he could get released. He’s been on a heater ever since. His OPS is up to .730 and in August it’s 1.339.

Myself, he’s spent 3 ¾ seasons in A ball. I’d like to see him promoted to AA for the last month of the season. If he can just look like he’s not hitting blindfolded for that month in Tennessee, then I’m back on his bandwagon.

[JBears79]

6 hours ago, Donzo said:

That's fair. He's spent four years in A ball and has only looked good the last seven weeks. Maybe another month or so in 2022, his second season at MB. I remember him going on a HR tear. Physically, he’s an ideal catching prospect. Good size, athletic, power potential and left handed. He just has to continue to produce.  

As of July 1st, his OPS was .570 in his second season in A+- not good. I was actually thinking he could get released. He’s been on a heater ever since. His OPS is up to .730 and in August it’s 1.339.

Myself, he’s spent 3 ¾ seasons in A ball. I’d like to see him promoted to AA for the last month of the season. If he can just look like he’s not hitting blindfolded for that month in Tennessee, then I’m back on his bandwagon.

I recall really liking the pick back when he was drafted but I honestly forgot about him until people started talking about him the past few weeks. Thanks for the info.

[ILMindState]

 

[Tryptamine]

11 minutes ago, ILMindState said:

 

Sure, why not.

[We Got The Whole 9]

Has anyone looked into the position player TJ epidemic 

[Tryptamine]

Christian Hernandez at 28 is just crazy to me. If he finishes the year strong I might even put him in the top 10.

Edited August 18, 2024 by Tryptamine

[Donzo]

My top 10 as it now stands:

1. Horton

2. Shaw

3. Cassie

4. Smith

5. Ballesteros

6. Triantos

7. Birdsell

8. Cruz

9. Wiggins

10 Hernanadez

 

Horton's ceiling still has me all in. Although, he needs to stay healthy next year.

Gotta respect what Smith is showing. He could be higher than #4 by the end of the year.

Birdsell's stuff and success at AAA can't be undervalued.

Basically going by signing bonus for Cruz. $4M says a lot.

I think Hernandez has been judged a little too harshly for a 20yr old. OPSing at .860 in A+ works for me.