Cubs offseason chit chat...

[Bertz]

1 hour ago, Transmogrified Tiger said:

I get that you'd really struggle to replace both in a single offseason, and Bregman is unlikely to be an easy or early negotiation(Boras again), but at the same time I don't know if I'd be in such a hurry to guarantee Altuve's age 35-39 seasons at 25 million per.  Especially given Astros ownership does not seem enthusiastic about living above the luxury tax indefinitely.

I think they know they're going over a cliff after '25 and rather than try and thread the needle they're just saying screw it and maxing out the next two years.  They're Dombrowskiing basically.

[Post Count Padder]

The Marlins DFA'd Jordan Groshans. Another reminder that top prospects can bottom out. He's still just 24.

[Stratos]

13 hours ago, Rex Buckingham said:

How much leash do we think Tauchman has? Dude was solid last year, but would anyone be surprised if he turns into a pumpkin again? The only year he has ever put up an OPS+ above 100 was 2019 with the juiced ball. 

His career averages outside of 2019 put him in Hosmer/Mancini (last year) territory

Ideally he's a 4th OF.  He's 33 so something to keep in mind.   The good thing is that his best offensive skill is swing decisions and working walks, which doesn't really age or slump.  Projections on him are around 97 wRC+ which seems right and matches his career #s.  He's a decent OF with good hands and instincts and will catch anything he can get to., just not a ton of speed.  He probably won't embarrass himself on either side of the ball.

Edited February 7, 2024 by Stratos

[squally1313]

'Oh no what do we do with an outfielder capable of playing all three positions making $2m who produced 1.8 fWAR last year and is projected for 1.8 fWAR this year' is a problem I would absolutely love to have, in that it implies that like, Happ, Seiya, PCA, Alcantara, and either Bellinger or Canario are all going off to an incredible degree.

The guy gave us more production last year than Mr. 'We can't trade him straight up for Shane Bieber', in slightly less PAs, and is projected for more on a per PA basis than him this year, let's just be happy we have him on the roster. Walks aren't sexy, but they're very effective. 

[squally1313]

2023 xwOBA

• Mike Tauchman: .345
• Chris Morel: .346
• Cody Bellinger: .331

[Randall Simon]

Is anyone else worried/skeptical that we appear to be guaranteeing everyday atbats to an unproven Busch? There's a very good chance he's just another AAAA player.

[Stratos]

29 minutes ago, Randall Simon said:

Is anyone else worried/skeptical that we appear to be guaranteeing everyday atbats to an unproven Busch? There's a very good chance he's just another AAAA player.

I don't think the Cubs guarantee everyday AB's to rookies throughout a whole season.  They'll let him have a shot though.  Mervis and Morel are options if he struggles as well as Wisdom, and Bellinger also if signed.  BJ Murray and McGeary likely start the year in Iowa too.  Hawkins has already recently eluded that Busch will probably be platooned vs LHP initially with the hope he could eventually have an everyday role:

https://www.bleachernation.com/cubs/2024/02/05/carter-hawkins-speaks-working-the-phones-being-opportunistic-rotation-buschs-role-free-agents-more/

Quote

Hawkins: “We think that he’s a potential great member of our lineup that can 100 percent hit against righties, and hopefully can play every day at some point.”

Busch did feature some pretty dramatic splits at Triple-A last year (an OPS way over 1.000 against righties, but a touch below .800 against lefties), but this is the first sense we’ve gotten that the Cubs might be looking at him as a platoon guy initially.

 

[thawv]

4 hours ago, Stratos said:

I don't think the Cubs guarantee everyday AB's to rookies throughout a whole season.  They'll let him have a shot though.  Mervis and Morel are options if he struggles as well as Wisdom, and Bellinger also if signed.  BJ Murray and McGeary likely start the year in Iowa too.  Hawkins has already recently eluded that Busch will probably be platooned vs LHP initially with the hope he could eventually have an everyday role:

https://www.bleachernation.com/cubs/2024/02/05/carter-hawkins-speaks-working-the-phones-being-opportunistic-rotation-buschs-role-free-agents-more/

 

Only 11 LLH had an OPS of .800 last year against LHP.  I think "a touch below .800" is fantastic. for LHH vs LHP.   To me, that's the furthest thing from a platoon option.  I mean, what RHH would play against LHP over him, that has an OPS of .800 on this team? 

Edited February 7, 2024 by thawv

[Petrey10]

Wild we traded young talent for a platoon by Hawkins comments.

 

furthermore crazy Mervis didn’t get more of a shot last year. Maybe that’s Ross and Counsel more willing. But still…

[Jason Ross]

1 hour ago, Petrey10 said:

Wild we traded young talent for a platoon by Hawkins comments.

 

furthermore crazy Mervis didn’t get more of a shot last year. Maybe that’s Ross and Counsel more willing. But still…

I think both of these things make sense. First, being "platoon" has been a "dirty" or bad word in baseball for a while, but we have to move past this connotation. Left handed hitters, league wide, are just really bad against left handed pitching. Left handed hitters had a 90 wRC+ league wide against LHP. This is a .303 wOBA, or in simple terms, a .240/.315/.375 slash. Just 25 left handed hitters, with at least 100 PA's had a wRC+ over 100 against LHP. It's incredible how bad lefties are against lefties. Left handed hitters are basically Dom Smith against LHP. Ask yourself this: do you want Dom Smith in your lineup? Ever? That's...bad. In comparison, even bumping the sample size to over 2x (to 250 PA's) there are 72 right handed hitters who had a 100 wRC+ against RHP.  

Being part of a "platoon" now a days is just normal. Is Michael Busch going to be more of a platoon hitter than not? Probably, he's left handed and managers are starting to figure this out (he didn't have terrible numbers against LHP in Triple-A so there's some hope he can be somewhat useful against LHP). The Brewers, under Craig Consell, had some of the biggest use of platoons in the league. Don't think of it as "dirty" or "bad". Think of it as "maximizing". The Cubs are going to maximize their lineups daily to make sure they don't just pencil someone in the lineup just because. So Micahel Busch will be put in places he'll more likely succeed in while allowing hitters who hit LHP to succeed more in his place when needed.

Mervis...well I did an article on him recently. His issues with contact were on display in Triple-A as well. It's more than K%...he was a bottom 10 contact% in Triple-A post his return. There's real issues there. The Cubs have always had reservations there, and I think I am starting to see why.

[KCCub]

Seeing Jesse Rogers being pessimistic over the past couple days that the Cubs will sign Belli has made me realize I need to not think it's a for sure thing (Similar hopes for the Glasnow trade). So, if Jed does end up passing on both Belli and Chapman, what does a realistic rest of the offseason look like that could salvage it? Would we be at the point where a major trade is needed or it's otherwise a bust in terms of truly competiting in 2024?

[s2obed]

6 minutes ago, KCCub said:

Seeing Jesse Rogers being pessimistic over the past couple days that the Cubs will sign Belli has made me realize I need to not think it's a for sure thing (Similar hopes for the Glasnow trade). So, if Jed does end up passing on both Belli and Chapman, what does a realistic rest of the offseason look like that could salvage it? Would we be at the point where a major trade is needed or it's otherwise a bust in terms of truly competiting in 2024?

No Bellinger or Chapman makes this team worse than where this team ended in 2023. Pitching should be improved but the offense and defense will be worse if no other moves are made. 

I'd be shocked if Jed goes into Opening Day with this current team though so I'm not too worried yet.

Edited February 7, 2024 by s2obed

[Transmogrified Tiger]

3 minutes ago, KCCub said:

Seeing Jesse Rogers being pessimistic over the past couple days that the Cubs will sign Belli has made me realize I need to not think it's a for sure thing (Similar hopes for the Glasnow trade). So, if Jed does end up passing on both Belli and Chapman, what does a realistic rest of the offseason look like that could salvage it? Would we be at the point where a major trade is needed or it's otherwise a bust in terms of truly competiting in 2024?

I'd be really interested to see what they might try in that circumstance, because I don't know.  You could try to peel Jansen off the Red Sox, make sure you're the one who wins the race for Woodruff and/or Hendriks(though Woodruff is a 2025 play), you could ensure you get another positionless bat(JDM, Belt, etc), you could step up the trade pursuit of whatever they got closest to over the offseason, or some combination.  Outside of clearly needing another good hitter though, the one silver lining would be they could take several paths(monster bullpen, rotation upgrade, several small upgrades, prospect depth trade, etc) and still be very much playoff favorites.

[Bertz]

2 minutes ago, KCCub said:

Seeing Jesse Rogers being pessimistic over the past couple days that the Cubs will sign Belli has made me realize I need to not think it's a for sure thing (Similar hopes for the Glasnow trade). So, if Jed does end up passing on both Belli and Chapman, what does a realistic rest of the offseason look like that could salvage it? Would we be at the point where a major trade is needed or it's otherwise a bust in terms of truly competiting in 2024?

Personally, I think any of the Boras 4 would have a similar impact on bottom line wins.  CF, 3B, and 5th starter are all adequate 1.5-2 WAR type positions, and I'd project each of those four guys for 3-4 WAR.  I think most fans want Bellinger most for a variety of reasons, and many of those reasons are very good.  But if Jed foregoes Bellinger for one of the other three, I expect a lot of angst but will personally think it's mostly unwarranted.

If Jed does not pull down one of the Boras 4....woof.  I think you pull in one of Belt/Soler/JDM, add another late inning reliever, and sign one of the high profile rehabbing pitchers.  It's probably not as disastrous for 2024 wins as it would feel, but man you'd really have to question if Jed is ever going to have the stones to go for it in an even halfway aggressive way.

[thawv]

11 minutes ago, KCCub said:

Seeing Jesse Rogers being pessimistic over the past couple days that the Cubs will sign Belli has made me realize I need to not think it's a for sure thing (Similar hopes for the Glasnow trade). So, if Jed does end up passing on both Belli and Chapman, what does a realistic rest of the offseason look like that could salvage it? Would we be at the point where a major trade is needed or it's otherwise a bust in terms of truly competiting in 2024?

I can't imagine Jed leaving 32 million unspent.  Will he?

[Tryptamine]

10 minutes ago, KCCub said:

Seeing Jesse Rogers being pessimistic over the past couple days that the Cubs will sign Belli has made me realize I need to not think it's a for sure thing (Similar hopes for the Glasnow trade). So, if Jed does end up passing on both Belli and Chapman, what does a realistic rest of the offseason look like that could salvage it? Would we be at the point where a major trade is needed or it's otherwise a bust in terms of truly competiting in 2024?

Barring a major trade, it couldn't be salvaged. Could they sneak into the playoffs because of being in the 2nd worst division in baseball? Sure, but I think this team is maybe as good as last year, certainly no better as things stand and there's going to be a lot of pressure on a lot of unknown commodities in Busch/PCA/Imanga.

[Rcal10]

18 minutes ago, s2obed said:

No Bellinger or Chapman makes this team worse than where this team ended in 2023. Pitching should be improved but the offense and defense will be worse if no other moves are made. 

I'd be shocked if Jed goes into Opening Day with this current team though so I'm not too worried yet.

Why would defense be worse? 

[Jason Ross]

5 minutes ago, Rcal10 said:

Why would defense be worse? 

On opening day you'd be pretty stagnant across the board defensively, with a changeout at 1b from Mancini/Hosmer to Busch (kind of unknown) and Tauchmann who would likely be a downgrade in CF, unless the team opened with Pete Crow-Armstrong (which I'm just not sure they'll do). 

I still think they'll do something, but I can see where you'd be probably giving away something defensively.

[Brian707]

17 minutes ago, thawv said:

I can't imagine Jed leaving 32 million unspent.  Will he?

[s2obed]

6 minutes ago, Rcal10 said:

Why would defense be worse? 

Bush at first and who will be on third? 

PCA at CF would be the only upgrade. 

[squally1313]

30 minutes ago, KCCub said:

Seeing Jesse Rogers being pessimistic over the past couple days that the Cubs will sign Belli has made me realize I need to not think it's a for sure thing (Similar hopes for the Glasnow trade). So, if Jed does end up passing on both Belli and Chapman, what does a realistic rest of the offseason look like that could salvage it? Would we be at the point where a major trade is needed or it's otherwise a bust in terms of truly competiting in 2024?

Lots of good answers above but also depends on what you mean/desire by 'truly competing' in 2024. 21% chance to win the division and 38% chance to make the playoffs as it stands now is competing to some. One of those big names makes it what....30%/50%? Conversely, we could sign all four of them and not be at the Dodgers/Braves level.

[CubinNY]

1 minute ago, squally1313 said:

Lots of good answers above but also depends on what you mean/desire by 'truly competing' in 2024. 21% chance to win the division and 38% chance to make the playoffs as it stands now is competing to some. One of those big names makes it what....30%/50%? Conversely, we could sign all four of them and not be at the Dodgers/Braves level.

lol. They are not competing. They were never planning on it. They are waiting patiently to see what happens and hope one of the remaining FA comes into their range (AAV/years). They are invested in the minor leagues this year and probably next year. Then they might compete if enough of the young talent makes it, but only to a certain financial point. They have a small market mentality and are proud of it. They know Wrigley will draw 2M no matter what they do. 

[squally1313]

3 minutes ago, CubinNY said:

lol. They are not competing. They were never planning on it. They are waiting patiently to see what happens and hope one of the remaining FA comes into their range (AAV/years). They are invested in the minor leagues this year and probably next year. Then they might compete if enough of the young talent makes it, but only to a certain financial point. They have a small market mentality and are proud of it. They know Wrigley will draw 2M no matter what they do. 

To clarify, they are 9th in 2024 payroll at the moment at $204m, this supposed $30m-$32m puts them in 5th (behind NYY, NYM, Houston, and Philly). That's pure dollars spent. Luxury tax they are in 11th, theoretically moving up to 7th-8th. 

[Rcal10]

53 minutes ago, s2obed said:

Bush at first and who will be on third? 

PCA at CF would be the only upgrade. 

Whoever is at 3rd isn’t worse than who was there. Same cast of characters. And Busch has to be better than Mancini, Hosmer, Wisdom. Bellinger was the only one good there. And he only started 44 games there. And in center if PCA wins the job he is an upgrade over whoever was in center last year. If it is Tauchman, he is a downgrade of Bellinger the 80 games Bellinger started there. Overall, I don’t see it as a worse defense. 

Edited February 7, 2024 by Rcal10

[UMFan83]

2 hours ago, KCCub said:

Seeing Jesse Rogers being pessimistic over the past couple days that the Cubs will sign Belli has made me realize I need to not think it's a for sure thing (Similar hopes for the Glasnow trade). So, if Jed does end up passing on both Belli and Chapman, what does a realistic rest of the offseason look like that could salvage it? Would we be at the point where a major trade is needed or it's otherwise a bust in terms of truly competiting in 2024?

I think we're on paper worse but with more upside if you consider the young talent that is quickly improving.  I would be super disappointed if this was what they trotted out offensively on opening day and it would damage my enthusiasm for the season significantly but there's still a pathway to being good.  In a way it kind of feels like the Giants of the last 2 offseasons where they seemingly have many of the pieces in place but some decent holes and their fans are dying for them to make any sort of big move to shore up the team.