Cubs offseason chit chat...

[Rex Buckingham]

How much leash do we think Tauchman has? Dude was solid last year, but would anyone be surprised if he turns into a pumpkin again? The only year he has ever put up an OPS+ above 100 was 2019 with the juiced ball. 

His career averages outside of 2019 put him in Hosmer/Mancini (last year) territory

[Transmogrified Tiger]

22 minutes ago, Rex Buckingham said:

How much leash do we think Tauchman has? Dude was solid last year, but would anyone be surprised if he turns into a pumpkin again? The only year he has ever put up an OPS+ above 100 was 2019 with the juiced ball. 

His career averages outside of 2019 put him in Hosmer/Mancini (last year) territory

If and when they sign Bellinger, Tauchman isn't a starter unless one or more of Bellinger and Busch are getting the day off and they want to prioritize LHH, or they're willing to play Busch at 3B for matchup reasons.  Which is to say his role is unlikely to be large to begin with.  I don't think they'll have a super itchy trigger finger if he has a poor April, his skill set(contact first approach with excellent batting eye and decent defense) is a solid fit for a bench OF role.  That said, if and when PCA looks ready to play regularly, someone's gotta come off the MLB roster to do it, and unless there are other circumstances(injury, Busch collapse, Busch playing a lot of 3B), it's tough to imagine a roster where there's room for all 4 of Bellinger, Busch, Tauchman, and PCA.  Mayybe if Morel looks like he can fake it at 3B as well as Wisdom you kick Wisdom instead of Tauchman, but it's a tossup.

[Jason Ross]

18 minutes ago, Rex Buckingham said:

How much leash do we think Tauchman has? Dude was solid last year, but would anyone be surprised if he turns into a pumpkin again? The only year he has ever put up an OPS+ above 100 was 2019 with the juiced ball. 

His career averages outside of 2019 put him in Hosmer/Mancini (last year) territory

Truthfully I think he's already turned back into a pumpkin. His final ~150 PA's saw him post a 74 wRC+. The BABIP was a bit low, but not egregiously, and he walked/K'd in normal amounts. He hit just a single homerun, and that's been his issue over his career: a real lack of power. His last 150 PA's mirrored his 301 PA's before he came to the Cubs, where he had a 69 wRC+, with a .088 ISO...so the outlier was the front half of his 2023 Cubs' production.

I think the Cubs will let him start the year in a decent role, and will likely rank higher than Canario in terms of "guys the Cubs will let play". But I wouldn't be surprised to see his role diminish pretty heavily through the year, and don't rate him too high myself. 

[Bertz]

24 minutes ago, Rex Buckingham said:

How much leash do we think Tauchman has? Dude was solid last year, but would anyone be surprised if he turns into a pumpkin again? The only year he has ever put up an OPS+ above 100 was 2019 with the juiced ball. 

His career averages outside of 2019 put him in Hosmer/Mancini (last year) territory

There's nothing especially eyebrow raising in what he did last year, if anything Statcast thinks he was a bit unlucky.  The projections have him taking a step back from last year but not a huge one.

If he were the guy we expected to start 140 games in CF he'd be worth worrying about more, but as a bridge to the kids (or contact oriented bench bat after we bring back Bellinger) he's really well suited.

[I owned a Suzuki]

1 hour ago, Tim said:

That's beyond what I'm saying. I don't like it, but "huge misstep" is too much.

He is signed thru 2026.  I think it was an okay signing.  If someone else plays their way into the lineup I don't think Happ's contract is going to be a burden to the team if he plays a reduced role.  But it also provides a proven player no one plays themselves into the role.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

4 minutes ago, 1908_Cubs said:

Truthfully I think he's already turned back into a pumpkin. His final ~150 PA's saw him post a 74 wRC+. The BABIP was a bit low, but not egregiously, and he walked/K'd in normal amounts. He hit just a single homerun, and that's been his issue over his career: a real lack of power. His last 150 PA's mirrored his 301 PA's before he came to the Cubs, where he had a 69 wRC+, with a .088 ISO...so the outlier was the front half of his 2023 Cubs' production.

I think the last 150 PA is largely an artifact of when he had a slump, he struggled hard for a chunk of August but was fine after.  At least I don't see an obvious 'this is when the pitchers adjusted/the magic ran out' breakpoint that would lead me to think he's a 70 wRC+ guy in 2024.

[Bertz]

4 minutes ago, Transmogrified Tiger said:

I think the last 150 PA is largely an artifact of when he had a slump, he struggled hard for a chunk of August but was fine after.  At least I don't see an obvious 'this is when the pitchers adjusted/the magic ran out' breakpoint that would lead me to think he's a 70 wRC+ guy in 2024.

Even more broadly, unless there's an injury you can point to (or a change in repertoire for a pitcher) the endpoints game is meaningless 99% of the time.

[Jason Ross]

34 minutes ago, Transmogrified Tiger said:

I think the last 150 PA is largely an artifact of when he had a slump, he struggled hard for a chunk of August but was fine after.  At least I don't see an obvious 'this is when the pitchers adjusted/the magic ran out' breakpoint that would lead me to think he's a 70 wRC+ guy in 2024.

2020-2021: 69 wRC+, .269 wOBA, .282 BABIP, .088 ISO, 12.3 BB%, 27.8% K%

2023 (last 150): 74 wRC+.271 wOBA, 271 BABIP, .066 ISO, 15.6 BB%, 24.5% K%

I think you can suggest that perhaps the approach was a bit better, but other than that, the Mike Tauchmann we saw to close out the year was, generally speaking, spot on the guy he was previously. 

This was his rolling wOBA from 2020 to 2021. There's some peaks and valleys, much likely that 150 PA span from 2023 to close out the season. Really, what stands out in 2023 is that one, extended run from about, June 11th through July 19th where he ISO'd .180 (that big peak in 2023). Outside of that, much of his rolling wOBA in 2023 is similar to that of the past...the peak he had was just much extended versus those of the past. There always will be those peaks and valleys for everyone, but I don't really think I see a bad-streak...I think I just see the Mike Tauchmann I expect moving forward...the guy he kind of has been outside of his one, really nice, 2019 season. Is it an arbitrary end point? Sure. But that's kind of what happens when guys turn back into the players we expected them to kind of be, isn't it? Arbitrary? It just...happens. And I think the pixie dust for Mike just kind of...ran out. 

I don't want to suggest he's...worthless...but that even with curated PA's, I kind of expect him to be more like that end of the season Mike Tauchmann than the first half of 2023 Mike Tauchmann. He can lock down a fourth OF'ers role and we'll probably be fine, but I kind of expect come mid-year that he'll have his role pretty diminished once the Cubs turn over spots to players like Pete Crow-Armstrong. Overall he seems like a dude who fits in well in the clubhouse and is liked, and he has some skills that are useful enough, I just don't think the magic is going to keep.

 

[squally1313]

13 minutes ago, I owned a Suzuki said:

He is signed thru 2026.  I think it was an okay signing.  If someone else plays their way into the lineup I don't think Happ's contract is going to be a burden to the team if he plays a reduced role.  But it also provides a proven player no one plays themselves into the role.

Happ has been the 14th best outfielder in baseball over the last two years and is projected to be the 30th best outfielder in baseball this year. If we end up with two other corner outfield guys who can comfortably exceed that, we'll be in amazing shape. 

[Stratos]

3 hours ago, Rcal10 said:

I think the point of the post suggesting they have so many prospects they will start making some trades is to trade the prospects for proven talent. Not trade the proven talent on the team to open up spots for the prospects. Which is what you are implying. The prospects are assets right now. If they wait, sure one might show he deserves to be in the majors and actually become a quality major leaguer. But more will falter and fall off. Now is the time to trade Alcantara, Triantos, Shaw, Cassie, Murray, Ballasteros, Canario, Mervis, and several other prospects for major league talent. Not all of them, but they should package a couple with maybe some lesser known guys to bring in a young”ish” major league talent with 3 or so years of control left. I think that is what the original story about them having so many prospects was alluding to. Now is the time to use those assets to help the 24’ team as well as the team the next several years. 

In another post yes I said I wanted them to trade some guys for good mlb players with control.   Other prospects they can play.   There's a lot they can do.

I've said before that the only 2 ways this team can get better is by increasing surplus or increasing the total payroll.

[Stratos]

1 hour ago, Bertz said:

Canario's got a tough path to playing time.  Right now he's behind Happ, Suzuki, and Tauchman in the outfield, and Morel/Wisdom at DH.  That’s not an impossible mix to worm his way into.

But we know the team is adding at least one bat, with Bellinger or Chapman being likely.  If it's Bellinger that adds a guy directly in front of Canario in the OF.  If it's Chapman it doesn't directly impact him,  however Jed failing to reel in a lefty will mean there's more incentive to get LHH bats into the lineup elsewhere, so Tauchman is probably the most days CF (especially with his pretty nominal platoon splits).

Complicating things more is that it's not just the guys in front of him, it's the ones behind him.  PCA is the org's golden child and is at roughly the same developmental level, probably a smidge behind.  By mid season Owen Caissie is also likely to be competing for any non CF at bats Canario might be sniffing around for.

If Canario was a more legit CF, or had a starker platoon split like, it'd be easier to see him carving a specific role on the MLB bench.  But as is he seems likely to fill a Mastrobuoni type role of "first guy up from Ioea to be the last guy on the bench".  If he wasn't going into his last option year that'd be a little wasteful but ultimately fine.  As is his value drops like a stone the closer we get to November without him having proved definitively if he belongs in MLB.

I think they'll keep Canario as long as he fills a role they need, including as bench/depth/DH.  You're right that longterm he's blocked and will likely be traded.  If someone else they like better like Caissie looks to be able to fill his role then they'll probably trade Canario.   Similar to what they did with Velazquez and Soler.

[Bertz]

23 minutes ago, Stratos said:

I think they'll keep Canario as long as he fills a role they need, including as bench/depth/DH.  You're right that longterm he's blocked and will likely be traded.  If someone else they like better like Caissie looks to be able to fill his role then they'll probably trade Canario.   Similar to what they did with Velazquez and Soler.

Right, and the genesis of the conversation was why that's wasteful and they'll have to settle for pennies on the dollar for him sometime in the next 12 months.

[squally1313]

7 minutes ago, Bertz said:

Right, and the genesis of the conversation was why that's wasteful and they'll have to settle for pennies on the dollar for him sometime in the next 12 months.

Yeah I feel like there much be some garbage team out there with a black hole in one of their three outfield spots and an intriguing reliever or an 8th starter or something. Replacing Canario for 2024 purposes, either external or internal, can't be at all difficult. 

[Bertz]

3 minutes ago, squally1313 said:

Yeah I feel like there much be some garbage team out there with a black hole in one of their three outfield spots and an intriguing reliever or an 8th starter or something. Replacing Canario for 2024 purposes, either external or internal, can't be at all difficult. 

I'm hoping that they have something lined up that they're simply waiting for Chapman/Bellinger to get locked in to execute on.

[Bertz]

Dodgers/Padres can start using the 60 Day IL this week, and other teams next week.  Don't be surprised if there's a flurry of moves around then.  For instance I believe the Cubs immediately 60 Day IL'd someone (Roberts?) and then signed Fulmer last year.

[Tryptamine]

5 hours ago, The20thK said:

Cool story… ignorant, but cool to insinuate that the two events are remotely the same. 

Let's assume it was consensual.  He is still a man who willingly struck a woman and choked her into unconsciousness.  No normal human being does this whether they're asked to or not. That's also ignoring that he has a long history of being hated in the clubhouse dating all the way back to his time in the minors.

[CubinNY]

When does ST officially start? 2.14? I already have the key to the Cubs making the playoffs but I'm waiting until ST starts to give drop my vast uberanalytic knowledge on all of you peons. Awe hell, I just give it to you now. 

Spoiler

Home runs. - How many they hit and how many they give up. That will be the key to this year. They have a lot of pitchers, starters and bullpen guys who are prone to give up the long ball. They will have to find a way to limit that.

On the other side, they have a lot of good quality hitters who can work counts and make solid contact. But they don't have a lot of HR power. They will have to find a way to tap into SLG. That's it, simple, dumb, but also important. 

 

[SOFNR]

28 minutes ago, Tryptamine said:

Let's assume it was consensual.  He is still a man who willingly struck a woman and choked her into unconsciousness.  No normal human being does this whether they're asked to or not. That's also ignoring that he has a long history of being hated in the clubhouse dating all the way back to his time in the minors.

It's also not just 1 woman. It's a history of similar behavior. I'm not here to kink shame anybody but I think it's pretty clear he makes teammates very uncomfortable. He's also always been a bit of a creep and a bad clubhouse guy. He's the last sort of player I'd want to bring on to a young team, even if I was convinced he was an upgrade to anybody in our rotation. Nobody in MLB wants to touch him. He deserves to live his life and doesnt belong in jail but hes not entitled to a spot in MLB. I'm not sure why certain people have such a weird obsession with him. 

[mul21]

13 minutes ago, SOFNR said:

It's also not just 1 woman. It's a history of similar behavior. I'm not here to kink shame anybody but I think it's pretty clear he makes teammates very uncomfortable. He's also always been a bit of a creep and a bad clubhouse guy. He's the last sort of player I'd want to bring on to a young team, even if I was convinced he was an upgrade to anybody in our rotation. Nobody in MLB wants to touch him. He deserves to live his life and doesnt belong in jail but hes not entitled to a spot in MLB. I'm not sure why certain people have such a weird obsession with him. 

False victimhood as is the hallmark personality trait of that entire group.

[Bertz]

YMMV on whether it matters with Jed in charge but talk has been they wanted to retain just one of Altuve/Bregman so the latter seems very likely to hit FA now

 

[CubinNY]

5 minutes ago, Bertz said:

YMMV on whether it matters with Jed in charge but talk has been they wanted to retain just one of Altuve/Bregman so the latter seems very likely to hit FA now

 

That’s the guy. More than Soto. 

[LBiittner]

9 minutes ago, Bertz said:

YMMV on whether it matters with Jed in charge but talk has been they wanted to retain just one of Altuve/Bregman so the latter seems very likely to hit FA now

 

Altuve accepts 5 x $25m.

Granted he's about 5 years older than Belli and they play different positions, but should Belli expect more than this? I think not. 

[Stratos]

8 hours ago, Bertz said:

Right, and the genesis of the conversation was why that's wasteful and they'll have to settle for pennies on the dollar for him sometime in the next 12 months.

Ok.  I just think that doesn't make any 

1 hour ago, LBiittner said:

Altuve accepts 5 x $25m.

Granted he's about 5 years older than Belli and they play different positions, but should Belli expect more than this? I think not. 

Altuve is a 5-6 WAR player, but also older, hard to compare them.

[LBiittner]

15 minutes ago, Stratos said:

Ok.  I just think that doesn't make any 

Altuve is a 5-6 WAR player, but also older, hard to compare m

My bad

Edited February 7, 2024 by LBiittner

[Transmogrified Tiger]

I get that you'd really struggle to replace both in a single offseason, and Bregman is unlikely to be an easy or early negotiation(Boras again), but at the same time I don't know if I'd be in such a hurry to guarantee Altuve's age 35-39 seasons at 25 million per.  Especially given Astros ownership does not seem enthusiastic about living above the luxury tax indefinitely.