Cubs offseason chit chat...

[SOFNR]

2 more candidates off the board.

[Stratos]

1 hour ago, UMFan83 said:

Figures. Smart move for them. Bush better hit

We have Busch, the poor man's Hoskins, who fits the Ricketts' spending tolerance better...that tolerance being league minimum salary 😂.

This year i'd rather have Hoskins but longterm Busch is still pretty nice.  Gave up a good prospect for him though.  I'm glad to have another lefty power bat, so maybe Hoskins wasn't the ideal fit that way.  Unfortunately the Brewers actually signed a decent player.  Oh well.

Maybe the Cubs don't grab another corner INF/DH bat, but I think they may., someone decent coming on a good value leftover on the FA heap.  They do have Mervis, Canario, among others to try at DH, but I think they do better as depth/bench pieces over OD starters.

Edited January 24, 2024 by Stratos

[Stratos]

What scares me about the Boras vs Jed battle is that the Cubs need Bellinger/Chapman to be ready for ST and OD more than those guys need to be ready for ST/OD.  You sign a longterm deal and the stats from this season don't matter.  Boras is in a good leverage position over the Cubs and other teams.  He knows what he's doing.  Waiting on one of these Boras clients also means Jed doesn't know how much left he has to spend on the pen or another bat etc.

But even if we sign one of these guys in March they'll be ready by early May.  Missing them for 1 month is a loss, but not a total loss.  Baseball needs an offseason deadline.

Edited January 24, 2024 by Stratos

[Stratos]

1 hour ago, WhyCantWeWin said:

Surprised he got a 2 year deal. Boras wins there 

Similar deal to Bellinger's i think?

[Layoutman]

41 minutes ago, Stratos said:

But even if we sign one of these guys in March they'll be ready by early May.  Missing them for 1 month is a loss, but not a total loss.  Baseball needs an offseason deadline.

And then you miss the post season by a couple of games...then it's a fiasco that could have been avoided.

[NorthsideAvenger]

1 hour ago, Stratos said:

What scares me about the Boras vs Jed battle is that the Cubs need Bellinger/Chapman to be ready for ST and OD more than those guys need to be ready for ST/OD.  You sign a longterm deal and the stats from this season don't matter.  Boras is in a good leverage position over the Cubs and other teams.  He knows what he's doing.  Waiting on one of these Boras clients also means Jed doesn't know how much left he has to spend on the pen or another bat etc.

But even if we sign one of these guys in March they'll be ready by early May.  Missing them for 1 month is a loss, but not a total loss.  Baseball needs an offseason deadline.

Either the Cubs get Cody back on terms closer to their comfort level or another team will have a noose of a contract. I'm fine with either scenario.

[Jason Ross]

Good reminder on Boras: just when you think there isn't a market, Boras finds a market and gets around what he wants. I think we all thought Boras/Hoskins were looking for something similar to this: 2 years, with an opt out, around $17-20m a year. What'd he get just when you squinted and went "Yeah, but where?" Oh, he got...2 years...and an opt out....at $17m aav...from the Brewers? They had a need but they didn't seem like they were swimming in those waters. 

We'll see how this plays out with the rest of the Boras crew. But Boras pulls these rabbits often.

[Rcal10]

1 hour ago, 1908_Cubs said:

Good reminder on Boras: just when you think there isn't a market, Boras finds a market and gets around what he wants. I think we all thought Boras/Hoskins were looking for something similar to this: 2 years, with an opt out, around $17-20m a year. What'd he get just when you squinted and went "Yeah, but where?" Oh, he got...2 years...and an opt out....at $17m aav...from the Brewers? They had a need but they didn't seem like they were swimming in those waters. 

We'll see how this plays out with the rest of the Boras crew. But Boras pulls these rabbits often.

He does bring teams in. I will give you that. But this was almost exactly what was expected for Hoskins. The only difference was the team. I don’t think him waiting got him more money. For all we know the Cubs could have offered a similar deal in December. Maybe they pulled it when trading for Busch. I agree, Boras is the best. But to me this deal looks exactly like what I would have thought he was being offered the entire FA period. And if it isn’t, IMO, teams were being unreasonable in their offers. If the Cubs didn’t make this offer in December than they didn’t really want Hoskins. 

[Tryptamine]

Not looking good. The margin for error is almost non existent now.

[CubinNY]

14 minutes ago, Rcal10 said:

He does bring teams in. I will give you that. But this was almost exactly what was expected for Hoskins. The only difference was the team. I don’t think him waiting got him more money. For all we know the Cubs could have offered a similar deal in December. Maybe they pulled it when trading for Busch. I agree, Boras is the best. But to me this deal looks exactly like what I would have thought he was being offered the entire FA period. And if it isn’t, IMO, teams were being unreasonable in their offers. If the Cubs didn’t make this offer in December than they didn’t really want Hoskins. 

So there was no harm in waiting. 

[BigbadB]

Boras could still lose in this battle for Bellinger. But, if he's going to lose, it will be a day/days before Spring Training. He's got a reputation of winning to uphold, and he will make it painful for anyone he loses to. 

[Rcal10]

41 minutes ago, CubinNY said:

So there was no harm in waiting. 

No reward either. Neutral. But really we don’t know. All I am saying is he got about what the industry expected. In fact the expected contract for him was 2/$36M. I don’t view this one as a Boras win, is all I am saying. 

[ILMindState]

I can't remember if I found this here or not so apologies if it's already been shared.  But this is a reminder that Boras has also taken his fair share of Ls by waiting too long..

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2024/01/boras-clients-who-signed-after-january-in-previous-offseasons.html?utm_source=twitter

[Backtobanks]

8 hours ago, Stratos said:

We have Busch, the poor man's Hoskins, who fits the Ricketts' spending tolerance better...that tolerance being league minimum salary 😂.

This year i'd rather have Hoskins but longterm Busch is still pretty nice.  Gave up a good prospect for him though.  I'm glad to have another lefty power bat, so maybe Hoskins wasn't the ideal fit that way.  Unfortunately the Brewers actually signed a decent player.  Oh well.

Maybe the Cubs don't grab another corner INF/DH bat, but I think they may., someone decent coming on a good value leftover on the FA heap.  They do have Mervis, Canario, among others to try at DH, but I think they do better as depth/bench pieces over OD starters.

I like Busch and he looks like he will be a solid hitter, but he still is a prospect who hasn't proven it at the ML level yet.

[squally1313]

8 hours ago, Stratos said:

What scares me about the Boras vs Jed battle is that the Cubs need Bellinger/Chapman to be ready for ST and OD more than those guys need to be ready for ST/OD.  You sign a longterm deal and the stats from this season don't matter.  Boras is in a good leverage position over the Cubs and other teams.  He knows what he's doing.  Waiting on one of these Boras clients also means Jed doesn't know how much left he has to spend on the pen or another bat etc.

But even if we sign one of these guys in March they'll be ready by early May.  Missing them for 1 month is a loss, but not a total loss.  Baseball needs an offseason deadline.

Wait are you implying that a hitter needs 6-8 weeks to consider themselves ready to play a regular season baseball game?

[thawv]

10 hours ago, Rcal10 said:

So he was a little more than thawv’s prediction of 2/$8M. At least it seems things are moving.

My one year guess was 1/6.  Yes, my 2 years guess was 2/8. I think Moore got a nice deal

[thawv]

1 hour ago, Rcal10 said:

He does bring teams in. I will give you that. But this was almost exactly what was expected for Hoskins. The only difference was the team. I don’t think him waiting got him more money. For all we know the Cubs could have offered a similar deal in December. Maybe they pulled it when trading for Busch. I agree, Boras is the best. But to me this deal looks exactly like what I would have thought he was being offered the entire FA period. And if it isn’t, IMO, teams were being unreasonable in their offers. If the Cubs didn’t make this offer in December than they didn’t really want Hoskins. 

In my opinion, I think that this was the only offer over 1 year.  He got the best of both worlds.  More than one year.....if he wants the 2nd year.  But now he can opt out after this season.

[Jason Ross]

1 hour ago, Rcal10 said:

He does bring teams in. I will give you that. But this was almost exactly what was expected for Hoskins. The only difference was the team. I don’t think him waiting got him more money. For all we know the Cubs could have offered a similar deal in December. Maybe they pulled it when trading for Busch. I agree, Boras is the best. But to me this deal looks exactly like what I would have thought he was being offered the entire FA period. And if it isn’t, IMO, teams were being unreasonable in their offers. If the Cubs didn’t make this offer in December than they didn’t really want Hoskins. 

Oh, it's not that I think Hoskins didn't get what I'd expect. It's that I think this is what Boras expected Hoskins to get the entire time. Boras has Snell, Montgomery, and well, Bellinger out there, yet. I wouldn't count on Boras on any of them. I didn't expect the Cubs for Hoskins after Busch. But I'm less inclined to believe anyone is getting a discount on those three, either. Boras finds a team. Somehow. Someway.

[We Got The Whole 9]

1 hour ago, Tryptamine said:

Not looking good. The margin for error is almost non existent now.

You still thought they might sign Hoskins? 

[WhyCantWeWin]

9 hours ago, Stratos said:

Similar deal to Bellinger's i think?

Bellinger had the mutual option for the second year so both parties had to exercise it. Hoskins gets a opt out so it's a 2 year deal unless he leaves after the first. Boras was adamant about getting him that second year, must not be all that confident that he will bounce back the first year. 

[Transmogrified Tiger]

Hoskins doesn't have nearly the uncertainty of production that Bellinger did, I think something like this was always the likelihood both in shape and size, as long as that's what Hoskins wanted to prioritize(instead of e.g. aiming for 1/20 or avoiding a particular team/city, etc).  This is also probably a deal that could've been signed a long time ago, so hopefully it and the Moore deal are a sign that Boras is starting to clear the decks a bit.  The bigger disconnect is probably still out there though, because Hoskins and Moore were always destined to sign short term deals, and the Bellinger/Chapman/Snell/Montgomery disconnect is likely much greater on years than it is on the margins of AAV.

[Bertz]

32 minutes ago, We Got The Whole 9 said:

You still thought they might sign Hoskins? 

Yeah with Busch on board and it being increasingly clear Morel's not going anywhere Hoskins' fit on the roster took a nosedive.  He's a RHH lowball hitter, he's a little better hitter than Morel/Wisdom, but cut from the same mold and defensively redundant.

[JBears79]

Meh, not too upset about missing on Hoskins. Busch is clearly going to be our opening day 1B. Probably going to platoon him with Wisdom (and hopefully Bellinger).

 

Wish we had been in on Moore though. 

[Bertz]

I am curious what the second bat ends up being at this point.

Bellinger is clearly plan A for the primary bat and if/when he ends up happening the position player group looks something like this:

LF - Happ

SS - Swanson

RF - Suzuki

CF - Bellinger

DH - Morel

2B - Hoerner

1B - Busch

C - Gomes

3B - Madrigal

Bench - Amaya, Tauchman, Wisdom, Mastrobuoni 

This is actually a pretty complete group.  I honestly wouldn't be totally surprised to see Jed let it ride, knowing that it's easy to fold in the kids from Iowa to plug any gaps.  He did intimate that they're adding multiple bats though, and the things that stand out to me about the above are:

- Madrigal is really not an ideal starting 3B

- Wisdom aside, and he's got a *very* specific offensive niche, that bench is really light on pop

- If Busch fails that bottom of the order has potential to get dicey quick

You know who would really tie this whole group together?  Brandon Belt.  He would slot in as the primary DH and push Morel and his power to a 10th man utility role.  He'd be a starting caliber 1B in case Busch fails (boo!) or starts taking on more time at 3B (yay!).  He has a 142 wRC+ against righties the last three years, and we know Jed explicitly called that out as something they were looking to add to this group.  

The contact ability is sliding quickly as he gets older.  As is the durability.  But on a one year deal I think he's a fairly perfect complement to the current group (+ Bellinger probably).

[Stratos]

2 hours ago, squally1313 said:

Wait are you implying that a hitter needs 6-8 weeks to consider themselves ready to play a regular season baseball game?

Maybe a few weeks.   Suzuki did that one year he was hurt before OD