Cubs offseason chit chat...

[Stratos]

1 hour ago, WhyCantWeWin said:

Bellinger had the mutual option for the second year so both parties had to exercise it. Hoskins gets a opt out so it's a 2 year deal unless he leaves after the first. Boras was adamant about getting him that second year, must not be all that confident that he will bounce back the first year. 

Maybe more similar to the Conforto deal.

[WhyCantWeWin]

4 minutes ago, Stratos said:

Maybe more similar to the Conforto deal.

Yeah thats a good comp, both coming off missed years too. 

[Rcal10]

13 minutes ago, Bertz said:

I am curious what the second bat ends up being at this point.

Bellinger is clearly plan A for the primary bat and if/when he ends up happening the position player group looks something like this:

LF - Happ

SS - Swanson

RF - Suzuki

CF - Bellinger

DH - Morel

2B - Hoerner

1B - Busch

C - Gomes

3B - Madrigal

Bench - Amaya, Tauchman, Wisdom, Mastrobuoni 

This is actually a pretty complete group.  I honestly wouldn't be totally surprised to see Jed let it ride, knowing that it's easy to fold in the kids from Iowa to plug any gaps.  He did intimate that they're adding multiple bats though, and the things that stand out to me about the above are:

- Madrigal is really not an ideal starting 3B

- Wisdom aside, and he's got a *very* specific offensive niche, that bench is really light on pop

- If Busch fails that bottom of the order has potential to get dicey quick

You know who would really tie this whole group together?  Brandon Belt.  He would slot in as the primary DH and push Morel and his power to a 10th man utility role.  He'd be a starting caliber 1B in case Busch fails (boo!) or starts taking on more time at 3B (yay!).  He has a 142 wRC+ against righties the last three years, and we know Jed explicitly called that out as something they were looking to add to this group.  

The contact ability is sliding quickly as he gets older.  As is the durability.  But on a one year deal I think he's a fairly perfect complement to the current group (+ Bellinger probably).

Belt would work. Another name would be Polanco. He works as well. Both he and Morel would be DH, utility sort of guys. But they MIGHT also get a 3rd baseman out of him. MIGHT!!! Trade Madrigal, Mastrobuoni or Wisdom and add whatever else is needed for him. 

[muntjack]

That's the exact team from last season with Busch replacing Hosmer, yeah?

[We Got The Whole 9]

40 minutes ago, Bertz said:

I am curious what the second bat ends up being at this point.

Bellinger is clearly plan A for the primary bat and if/when he ends up happening the position player group looks something like this:

LF - Happ

SS - Swanson

RF - Suzuki

CF - Bellinger

DH - Morel

2B - Hoerner

1B - Busch

C - Gomes

3B - Madrigal

Bench - Amaya, Tauchman, Wisdom, Mastrobuoni 

This is actually a pretty complete group.  I honestly wouldn't be totally surprised to see Jed let it ride, knowing that it's easy to fold in the kids from Iowa to plug any gaps.  He did intimate that they're adding multiple bats though, and the things that stand out to me about the above are:

- Madrigal is really not an ideal starting 3B

- Wisdom aside, and he's got a *very* specific offensive niche, that bench is really light on pop

- If Busch fails that bottom of the order has potential to get dicey quick

You know who would really tie this whole group together?  Brandon Belt.  He would slot in as the primary DH and push Morel and his power to a 10th man utility role.  He'd be a starting caliber 1B in case Busch fails (boo!) or starts taking on more time at 3B (yay!).  He has a 142 wRC+ against righties the last three years, and we know Jed explicitly called that out as something they were looking to add to this group.  

The contact ability is sliding quickly as he gets older.  As is the durability.  But on a one year deal I think he's a fairly perfect complement to the current group (+ Bellinger probably).

[Tryptamine]

I hate to say it, but Jed would have to pull off a minor miracle to get this team up to where it needs to be if he misses on Bellinger at this point. 

[CubinNY]

11 minutes ago, Tryptamine said:

I hate to say it, but Jed would have to pull off a minor miracle to get this team up to where it needs to be if he misses on Bellinger at this point. 

At least on paper. I think they are banking on marginal improvement from the younger guys. I get the feeling that the Cubs think that they have a good (best?) offer for Bellinger and he's going to sign. But, Bellinger solves some problems and potentially creates others. 

I like their starting pitching. Obviously, defense will be good, but the offense and bullpen are still huge question marks

[LBiittner]

Humm.

Not sure why, but I have the sneaking suspicion Jed will try and sell us on the incredible hitting ability of TOMMY PHAM to be our bat addition. 

Welcome to 4th place in the weak central division cubfans.

 

[Rcal10]

34 minutes ago, Tryptamine said:

I hate to say it, but Jed would have to pull off a minor miracle to get this team up to where it needs to be if he misses on Bellinger at this point. 

If, by minor miracle, you mean have to make a pretty significant trade, I agree with you. There is not a clear path with free agency. Even Chapman still leaves them short. 

[Jason Ross]

2 hours ago, JBears79 said:

Meh, not too upset about missing on Hoskins. Busch is clearly going to be our opening day 1B. Probably going to platoon him with Wisdom (and hopefully Bellinger).

 

Wish we had been in on Moore though. 

Busch doesn't really have terrible platoon numbers over his time in Triple-A. I think he'll sit, especially early, against tough lefties, but doubt he's really platooning overall, either.

[Tryptamine]

I know this, you cannot seriously claim you're trying to compete for a division title when 1/3 of your daily line up consists of PCA, Busch and madrigal. You have 2 guys who have no history of MLB performance and 1 guy who has a history of being, at best, a slightly below average hitter. 

[Rcal10]

So would signing Bellinger and Neris and then adding either Belt or Polanco be a satisfactory off season? Does that at least put them as “arguably” the top team in the central? I hope so, because I don’t think we get more than that, if we even get that.

[Tryptamine]

8 minutes ago, Rcal10 said:

So would signing Bellinger and Neris and then adding either Belt or Polanco be a satisfactory off season? Does that at least put them as “arguably” the top team in the central? I hope so, because I don’t think we get more than that, if we even get that.

I'm not sure that team is even better than the 2023 Cubs. 2024 Bellinger is likely worse than 2023 Bellinger. There's a pretty significant chance that Imanaga is worse than Stroman. Belt/Busch would be hard pressed not to be an upgrade over the 2023 1B, but does it exceed the previous 2 subtractions? I'm not sure that it does. Side note, I have almost no interest in Neris for the money he is probably going to get. You could probably get Robertson+Brasier for a few extra million a year and be far better off. 

[Bertz]

48 minutes ago, Tryptamine said:

I hate to say it, but Jed would have to pull off a minor miracle to get this team up to where it needs to be if he misses on Bellinger at this point. 

I don't think there's a ton of difference between any of Boras' Big 4, at least for 2024.  The Cubs are looking at similar-ish production from each of CF, 3B, and #5 starter, and each guy projects in the 3-3.5 WAR range.

[Jason Ross]

6 minutes ago, Tryptamine said:

I know this, you cannot seriously claim you're trying to compete for a division title when 1/3 of your daily line up consists of PCA, Busch and madrigal. You have 2 guys who have no history of MLB performance and 1 guy who has a history of being, at best, a slightly below average hitter. 

Yeah, I'd be a little skeptical of that plan. Especially with the money left. 

I just don't think that's going to happen. The Cubs, themselves, have signaled they want to do more. Whether it's Bellinger or another off the radar hitter (they pulled Busch out of thin air), I think they'll add at least one more nice addition to deepen the lineup, I'm not convinced they'll add two starting types like some, but one, I think, they will for sure. We may just have to be patient into mid-Feb.

[Rcal10]

Just now, Tryptamine said:

I'm not sure that team is even better than the 2023 Cubs. 2024 Bellinger is likely worse than 2023 Bellinger. There's a pretty significant chance that Imanaga is worse than Stroman. Belt/Busch would be hard pressed not to be an upgrade over the 2023 1B, but does it exceed the previous 2 subtractions? I'm not sure that it does. Side note, I have almost no interest in Neris for the money he is probably going to get. You could probably get Robertson+Brasier for a few extra million a year and be far better off. 

Just used Neris. Could be any one arm. I do think they are better. Sure Bellinger might regress. But at 1st they have to be better. I think they spent a lot of time last year trying to figure out their best team. Morel came up 30 games in, took forever to release Hosmer, couldn’t figure out the closer, etc… This year would be quicker to get to their best. Plus they have guys a more ready in the minors who can help. And, they did win 83 games last year and probably should have won 86-87. So a little better with better luck and maybe better use of the pen does get them 90 wins. 

[Rcal10]

6 minutes ago, 1908_Cubs said:

Yeah, I'd be a little skeptical of that plan. Especially with the money left. 

I just don't think that's going to happen. The Cubs, themselves, have signaled they want to do more. Whether it's Bellinger or another off the radar hitter (they pulled Busch out of thin air), I think they'll add at least one more nice addition to deepen the lineup, I'm not convinced they'll add two starting types like some, but one, I think, they will for sure. We may just have to be patient into mid-Feb.

I’m not convinced they will add 2 either. I am just suggesting if they did add a Bellinger type and then a second bat (Polanco or Belt) if that would be enough for the offense. I am also  it convinced Polanco or Belt would be a second staring type bat. Maybe a guy who plays 100 -115 games  is more what I see them as.

[squally1313]

8 minutes ago, Tryptamine said:

I'm not sure that team is even better than the 2023 Cubs. 2024 Bellinger is likely worse than 2023 Bellinger. There's a pretty significant chance that Imanaga is worse than Stroman. Belt/Busch would be hard pressed not to be an upgrade over the 2023 1B, but does it exceed the previous 2 subtractions? I'm not sure that it does. Side note, I have almost no interest in Neris for the money he is probably going to get. You could probably get Robertson+Brasier for a few extra million a year and be far better off. 

How come players only regress in this scenario though? Why isn't Suzuki's second half a sign of better overall performance? Why wouldn't Taillon's career numbers suggest improvement on his 2023 numbers? Why is there no chance that PCA or Busch turn into first division starters given their pedigree? If you're going to distill it down to comparing the two rosters, you can't only look at the downside.

[Jason Ross]

3 minutes ago, Rcal10 said:

I’m not convinced they will add 2 either. I am just suggesting if they did add a Bellinger type and then a second bat (Polanco or Belt) if that would be enough for the offense. I am also  it convinced Polanco or Belt would be a second staring type bat. Maybe a guy who plays 100 -115 games  is more what I see them as.

Oh yeah, that wasn't at anyone in particular, just the general. 

[LBiittner]

I thought after making 10m in 23 Belt was retiring?

[LBiittner]

Jed might be saving money, mancini signs with Miami. 

[Tryptamine]

35 minutes ago, squally1313 said:

How come players only regress in this scenario though? Why isn't Suzuki's second half a sign of better overall performance? Why wouldn't Taillon's career numbers suggest improvement on his 2023 numbers? Why is there no chance that PCA or Busch turn into first division starters given their pedigree? If you're going to distill it down to comparing the two rosters, you can't only look at the downside.

Because if you're going to claim you're competing for a division championship you don't go into the season needing rookies to immediately perform. I also think we saw what Seiya is cumulatively. He's clearly far better than the guy he was the first half, but I really doubt he's the guy he was in the 2nd half. I mean if he's actually the guy who after July 1st put up a .311/.372/.556 line good for a 147 wRC+ then he's an MVP candidate which would be awesome, but unlikely.  While it's possible Taillon gets better, it's even more likely that Assad doesn't put up an ERA more than 1.5 runs below his xERA again. 

[Tim]

17 minutes ago, Tryptamine said:

Because if you're going to claim you're competing for a division championship you don't go into the season needing rookies to immediately perform

PCA has insurance with Tauchman. Busch has insurance with Morel & Wisdom. If we sign Belli, then he's providing insurance to each of them. 

The rookies need to break in at some point. I think you put backup plans in place, but at some point you've got to play them.

[17 Seconds]

2 hours ago, Tryptamine said:

I hate to say it, but Jed would have to pull off a minor miracle to get this team up to where it needs to be if he misses on Bellinger at this point. 

bellinger is projected for like 3 wins. I get how important he is at this point, but this is just Kyle level doom bonering

Edited January 24, 2024 by 17 Seconds

[thawv]

58 minutes ago, LBiittner said:

Jed might be saving money, mancini signs with Miami. 

He's saving league minimum.  That's something!