2023-24 Offseason Prospect Lists

[CaliforniaRaisin]

Aram Leighton has 5 Cubs in his top 51;

 

[Bertz]

Had a chance to read Leighton's list this morning.  Lot's of good stuff but good gracious this data on Caissie

Quote

His average exit velocity of 94 MPH would rank among the top-15 in Major League Baseball, and his 90th percentile exit velocity of 110 MPH is one of the best figures in the entire Minor Leagues. There is foul pole-to-foul pole power potential for Caissie, who may even have more pop in the tank.

That is legitimate 80 grade power, and at 20/21 there might be more in the tank.

[muntjack]

On 10/6/2023 at 7:30 AM, muntjack said:

1. Owen Caissie
2. Cade Horton
3. Pete Crow-Armstrong
4. Kevin Alcantara
5. Jordan Wicks
6. Matt Shaw
7. Ben Brown
8. Jackson Ferris
9. BJ Murray Jr
10. Alexander Canario
11. Matt Mervis
12. Moises Ballesteros
13. James Triantos
14. Jefferson Rojas
15. Brennen Davis
16. Cristian Hernandez
17. Daniel Palencia
18. Jaxon Wiggins
19. Josh Rivera
20. Haydn McGeary

 

[CaliforniaRaisin]

1. PCA
2. Horton
3. Shaw
4. Caissie
5. Ballesteros
6. Wixks
7. Alcántara
8. Brown
9. Rojas
10. Ferris

[CaliforniaRaisin]

BP is out today with their list too:

1. PCA
2. Shaw
3. Horton
4. Caissie
5. Alcántara
6. Ballesteros
7. Triantos
8. Wicks
9. Rojas
10. Brown
11. Ferris
12. Canario
13. Mervis 
14. Árias
15. Wiggins
16. Hope
17. McGeary
18. Murray Jr
19. P. Ramiriez
20. Davis

[Tim]

So, combining the two lists

Tier 1:

• PCA

Tier 2:

• Horton
• Shaw
• Caissie

Tier 3:

• Alcantara
• Ballesteros
• Wicks

Tier 4:

• Brown
• Rojas
• Ferris
• Triantos

I could get behind that

[muntjack]

I like Ballesteros a lot, but not quite as much as these guys. 

[Tim]

19 minutes ago, muntjack said:

I like Ballesteros a lot, but not quite as much as these guys. 

Getting AA at bats as a 19 year old catcher is really uncommon.

[Rex Buckingham]

34 minutes ago, TomtheBombadil said:

Man, Wicks is crazy underrated. 

agreed. The results he got in MLB, pitching in a playoff race at the end of a season where he set a career high in innings should carry more value, IMO

[Jason Ross]

Wicks is going to be an underrated prospect, and likely, an underrated MLB pitcher. He's not a "sexy" pitcher. His fastball is, fine, but not overpowering, averaging just under 92mph. His best secondary pitch is a changeup, which doesn't move like a sexy slider or a big looping curve ball. He gets a lot of ground balls, and ground ball pitchers don't get to do a groundball strut like strikeout pitchers get to do. He's kind of goofy looking with the googles. 

But he's got a lot of the tools to be your typical "FIP-beater". He's going to get those ground balls and keep the ball in the ballpark with a changeup-curveball heavy load. He's a bulldog on the mound, he doesn't let his lower velo fastball hold him back; he throws it in on RHP hands (more ground balls!). 

I think he's a nice pitcher. He's not full-on-Hendricks, but there's some similarities. He's not full on Jon Lester, but there's some similarities there too, more in demeanor than anything. I think his upside sits as a solid #3 type. And I'll admit too; I underrated him on draft day. I'll brag all day about how I liked Horton and Caissie, but it's on me to admit I hated Jordan Wicks and I'm glad I was an idiot. Wicks is a good pitcher.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

31 minutes ago, Rex Buckingham said:

agreed. The results he got in MLB, pitching in a playoff race at the end of a season where he set a career high in innings should carry more value, IMO

I don't think there's an objective answer, but the counter-argument you could make is to ask if Wicks is the guy from his first 4 MLB starts(22.2 IP, 1.98 ERA, 15/5 K/BB, 1 HR) or the guy from his last 3 MLB starts(12 IP, 9.00 ERA, 9/6 K/BB, 4 HR).  It's not too tough to draw a line from Wicks' less than elite stuff to some pretty unflattering performances once teams had a little exposure to him at the MLB level.  Or even if it's not something particularly systemic about the trend, it's a stark reminder that his profile doesn't have as much margin for error.

[Bertz]

4 minutes ago, Transmogrified Tiger said:

I don't think there's an objective answer, but the counter-argument you could make is to ask if Wicks is the guy from his first 4 MLB starts(22.2 IP, 1.98 ERA, 15/5 K/BB, 1 HR) or the guy from his last 3 MLB starts(12 IP, 9.00 ERA, 9/6 K/BB, 4 HR).  It's not too tough to draw a line from Wicks' less than elite stuff to some pretty unflattering performances once teams had a little exposure to him at the MLB level.  Or even if it's not something particularly systemic about the trend, it's a stark reminder that his profile doesn't have as much margin for error.

Yeah Wicks had a 16.3% strikeout rate, a good-but-not-elite 47% groundball rate, and has below average fastballs by any objective measure.  Like we all love him, but there's a very good chance he ends up being more or less Kyle Freeland or something similarly unexciting.

[craig]

8 hours ago, 1908_Cubs said:

But he's got a lot of the tools to be your typical "FIP-beater". He's going to get those ground balls and keep the ball in the ballpark with a changeup-curveball heavy load. .......

Unfortunately it isn't actually statistically true that he can "keep the ball in the ballpark", thus far.  He's been HR-prone.  I think the capacity to limit the bomb-factor will be a big key in terms of his future.  

17HR in 126IP last year.  (Between Cubs and minors.)

10HR in 94IP in 2022.  That's not awful, but it's not good for A/AA-level pitching, where HR's are much reduced.  I think most good prospects are much less bomb-vulnerable in A-ball. 

Kind of a bummer that Wicks got waxed so badly in his last couple of outings.  I'd hoped he might sneak into the top-100, and be a PPI draft-pick-bonus guy if he was to win ROY.  But ranking only #6 in BA's Cubs list, I'm guessing he won't make their top-100.  And for the PPI, a guy needs to be top-100 in 2-of-3 top-100's between Pipeline, ESPN, and BA.  He's only #10 on current Pipeline listing, so kinda guessing he's not going to be a PPI possibility.  

 

Edited November 16, 2023 by craig

[craig]

Interesting that both lists today have 9 of 10 guys in common.  Often lists have considerably more scatter.  Rojas finishing 9th in both also interesting, ahead of guys like Brown in the one, and guys like Ferris and Canario in both.  

[craig]

8 minutes ago, TomtheBombadil said:

While I agree he’s going to give up HRs most years, that’s maybe most because hitters hit HRs. His HR/FB in pro ball including MLB is 13.5%, MLB SP’s averaged 13.3% in 2023. ....

HR rates in the majors are much higher than in the minors, no?  That his rate in the minors isn't better than big-league normal is a concern, a big one for me, and is a bad precedent.  

Obviously we hope that he'll improve, and that in future he'll be much less a bomb-factory than he's been to date.  Hoping for improvement in future is what we do with all prospects, obviously.  

My point was simply that thus far, HR-vulnerable is his profile.  We can all wish that will change in future.  

[Jason Ross]

14 minutes ago, craig said:

HR rates in the majors are much higher than in the minors, no?  That his rate in the minors isn't better than big-league normal is a concern, a big one for me, and is a bad precedent.  

Obviously we hope that he'll improve, and that in future he'll be much less a bomb-factory than he's been to date.  Hoping for improvement in future is what we do with all prospects, obviously.  

My point was simply that thus far, HR-vulnerable is his profile.  We can all wish that will change in future.  

I don't think we should worry a lot about his HR/.FB% in under 35 innings yet. He gave up 4 home runs over his last two starts of the season, despite giving up just a single home run in his first 5. His worst start as a major leaguer was his last one, and it's likely that exhaustion was beginning to set in; he didn't make it out of the second. Wicks was on 6 days rest and hadn't gone 5+ innings all year prior to the MLB bump where he went 6+ three separate occasions. It shouldn't be shocking that his barrel% jumped massively his last two starts as well. That last start alone saw him equal his strikes to his ball, and the strikes he threw were not in good spots. I think the kid was probably running on some fumes.

When I say he "should" keep the ball in the ballpark, I'm speaking of the repertoire and his batted ball data so far. He throws a heavy dose of fastballs on the hand, changeups at the knees and curveballs. His high GB% should translate to MLB action (GB% has high correlation from AAA to MLB) and his 46.8% GB% in a full season would mark him 10th in the MLB for qualified hitters if he maintained it all season (which, unless his command died, is around what we should expect). We need more savant data before we can make definitives, but in limited time he showed impressive abilities for a rookie to miss barrels, and limit hard hits too. 

There's still a decent spread on what we can expect him to become. But I think he's got the profile of a pitcher who likely limits HR's, hard hits, and does a good job keeping the ball on the ground. That's FIP-beater profile stuff. One of the pitchers who's 2023 profile was most similar to Wicks? Well, It's Mr, Kyle Hendricks with a .85, the second closest pitcher to Wicks.  We need more data before he is one, but he's got the pre-reqs.

Edited November 16, 2023 by 1908_Cubs

[craig]

1 hour ago, 1908_Cubs said:

I don't think we should worry a lot about his HR/.FB% in under 35 innings yet.

I was alluding to his HR-vulnerability in the minors. 

12/91 IP in 2023, 10/95 in 2022.  That isn't particularly good for a pitcher facing minor-league hitters.  I didn't say it was terrible.  

Edited November 16, 2023 by craig

[craig]

From BA chat, Kyle Glaser:

That's all going to depend on if Ballesteros loses weight. He actually has strong hands, shows some flexibility and has a plus arm behind the plate. He just can't move like he needs to be able to. As one Cubs official put it "He's 20 pounds away from being a good defender." He's only 5-foot-7 and there aren't many 5-foot-7 first basemen out there, so it's really catcher or bust with him.

Edited November 16, 2023 by craig

[We Got The Whole 9]

Mo is that short? 

[Jason Ross]

7 hours ago, We Got The Whole 9 said:

Mo is that short? 

He's listed at 5"7, 195, so I think Glasser is using his listed height. I haven't measured him, but I've read a few places that he could be as tall as 5"10 today and my guess is he weighs more than 197 today, too. 

[Hrubes20]

1 hour ago, 1908_Cubs said:

He's listed at 5"7, 195, so I think Glasser is using his listed height. I haven't measured him, but I've read a few places that he could be as tall as 5"10 today and my guess is he weighs more than 197 today, too. 

He looks closer to 5'9" and 225.  At least on video.  

[Jason Ross]

10 hours ago, craig said:

I was alluding to his HR-vulnerability in the minors. 

12/91 IP in 2023, 10/95 in 2022.  That isn't particularly good for a pitcher facing minor-league hitters.  I didn't say it was terrible.  

I think context matters and I want to bring a bit of context to Wicks' numbers. So if we're looking at his career MiLB HR/FB%, he's got excellent HR rates in both A+ and in AAA, where the "high" data point seems to be is in Tennessee. So just factual information here but:

1. In 2022, Wicks surrendered five home runs in AA over eight starts. Four of them came in his first two starts, and one of them came in his remaining six. 

2. In 2022 Jordan Wicks surrendered nine home runs in 13 starts in AA.

We can interpret this data how we want, but when I see a pitching giving up 90% of his home runs in 2022 in his first two starts at a new level, I don't see an issue; I see growth. I see a pitcher who got a new level of competition and learned. 2023 AA data needs to be given an asterisk for anyone in the Southern League. For Wicks, according to his father he "hated that ball". A command over stuff pitcher likely is going to struggle a bit when you mess with the ball. It isn't shocking then, to see him struggle more with missing spots in that case, which, resulted in higher HR totals, especially if a pitcher "hated" that ball. 

So while I think in most cases it'd be fair to say "you're just rationalizing data to fit a view point" here, I think the AAA data does a lot of talking here too. Once he returned to a normal, non pre-tacked baseball, the HR's went back down despite an increase in competition. If he was truly getting beat by talent, I think we'd expect to see, at the very least, the HR/FB% remain closer to what he saw in AA, not decline again.

And I know you didn't say it was terrible, but I don't think I claimed you did, either. I do think that when we contextualize his blips, there seems to be rationalization for them. He's got the profile of someone who should be able to keep the ball in play. Even if he's got a 13-15% HR/FB%, if he's getting 47% ground balls, it means he's going to give up less fly balls, regardless. 15% of a smaller number equates to a lower number of home runs. 

Edited November 16, 2023 by 1908_Cubs

[craig]

Thanks for discussion on Wicks HR rates, 1908 and Tom.  Helpful.  And yeah, the context and rationalization is helpful. 

I agree it's plausible to project and hope HR's won't be an acute problem for him future, and logical to assume as a ground-ball guy that they won't.  Not to belabor argument, I was really originally just disputing that his stats show anti-HR, they don't.  And then you mentioned that it was unwise to worry based off of 34 big-league innings, so I clarified that the minor-league composite showed  >1 HR/9 rates too.  His junior year in college likewise. 

[Jason Ross]

5 minutes ago, craig said:

Thanks for discussion on Wicks HR rates, 1908 and Tom.  Helpful.  And yeah, the context and rationalization is helpful. 

I agree it's plausible to project and hope HR's won't be an acute problem for him future, and logical to assume as a ground-ball guy that they won't.  Not to belabor argument, I was really originally just disputing that his stats show anti-HR, they don't.  And then you mentioned that it was unwise to worry based off of 34 big-league innings, so I clarified that the minor-league composite showed  >1 HR/9 rates too.  His junior year in college likewise. 

Hey, I love the conversation. This is why I post on a forum to begin with. My partner does not give two shits about Jordan Wicks home run rate in Tennessee as a 23 year old and whether or not his changeup is going to generate more whiffs. It's either I have these awesome conversations with intelligent like minded individuals on this place or I'll eventually drive her insane debating whether or not Owen Caissie's swing is too loopy to succeed at the MLB level. Thanks for the debates!

Edited November 16, 2023 by 1908_Cubs

[craig]

Tom, thanks also for presenting the HR/FB%.  I assume that can be a fairly high-scatter phenomenon?  I don't know the Saber on that.  *IF* Wicks doesn't have an inordinately high HR/FB ratio, that will be very helpful.  

I admit in younger days, before Saber was as sophisticated, and when sinkerballers were valued, I hae a naive view that finesse guys and sinker-ballers were often pretty HR-vulnerable.  When their stuff is on, and everything is working, it's great.  But most HR's come on mistakes; when a sinker doesn't sink, a curveball hangs, that's often where the HR's originate.  By this perspective, finesse guys and guys with mediocre fastballs like Wicks could be kinda vulnerable on their imperfect days?  (Obviously this applies to non-finesse guys as well.  Velocity guys hang breaking balls too, and mislocate fastballs.). 

But that hypothesis would suggest the HR/FB ratio would be elevated.  *IF* in fact the HR/FB rate is NOT much worse than average, that's promising that HR's won't Wesneski/Taillon/Smyly him!