2023-24 Offseason Prospect Lists

[Jason Ross]

I don't think Jordan Wicks is the type to gain enough votes to finish in the top-3, but has Wicks made enough top-100 lists to be eligible for draft pick compensation if he does finish top-3 RoY voting?

[Transmogrified Tiger]

8 minutes ago, 1908_Cubs said:

I don't think Jordan Wicks is the type to gain enough votes to finish in the top-3, but has Wicks made enough top-100 lists to be eligible for draft pick compensation if he does finish top-3 RoY voting?

Yes.

[Jason Ross]

7 minutes ago, Transmogrified Tiger said:

Yes.

Appreciate it. It felt like that was the case but couldn't entirely tell. 

[Transmogrified Tiger]

1 minute ago, 1908_Cubs said:

Appreciate it. It felt like that was the case but couldn't entirely tell. 

It's 2 out of 3 from BA, ESPN, and BP.  Some googling and scanning this thread shows him in BP and ESPN so I didn't bother finding out if he got 100%.

[Jason Ross]

24 minutes ago, Transmogrified Tiger said:

It's 2 out of 3 from BA, ESPN, and BP.  Some googling and scanning this thread shows him in BP and ESPN so I didn't bother finding out if he got 100%.

Perfect. Thanks for the deets on that, TT. I keep forgetting which services count, which ones don't, etc. 

[Tim]

45 minutes ago, Transmogrified Tiger said:

It's 2 out of 3 from BA, ESPN, and BP.  Some googling and scanning this thread shows him in BP and ESPN so I didn't bother finding out if he got 100%.

Are you sure it's BP? I thought it was whatever they call the MLB list with Callis.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

1 hour ago, Tim said:

Are you sure it's BP? I thought it was whatever they call the MLB list with Callis.

Ah crap you're right, serves me right for going off memory for that part of it. I think the current Pipeline list is the 2024 list, so with that and BA's list, Wicks would not be eligible.

 

BA: PCA, Horton, Shaw, Busch, Caissie

Pipeline: PCA, Horton, Shaw, Busch, Caissie, Alcantara, Triantos

ESPN: PCA, Horton, Shaw, Caissie, Wicks

 

Eligible for PPI: PCA, Horton, Shaw, Busch, Caissie

[Bertz]

2 hours ago, Transmogrified Tiger said:

Ah crap you're right, serves me right for going off memory for that part of it. I think the current Pipeline list is the 2024 list, so with that and BA's list, Wicks would not be eligible.

 

BA: PCA, Horton, Shaw, Busch, Caissie

Pipeline: PCA, Horton, Shaw, Busch, Caissie, Alcantara, Triantos

ESPN: PCA, Horton, Shaw, Caissie, Wicks

 

Eligible for PPI: PCA, Horton, Shaw, Busch, Caissie

I don't remember where I saw it, but there's some qualifier where the guy has to make his debut with the team getting the PPI, so Busch's cup of coffee last year with the Dodgers exempts him unfortunately.

[craig]

Correct.  Wicks only made 1/3 of the top-100's, so he's not eligible.  And Busch isn't eligible due to trade.  

It's kinda funky how Wicks is off most lists altogether, but the couple of lists that he did make, he made top-50 in both.  

Wide variety of perspectives on most non-elite prospects.  

[Bertz]

https://theathletic.com/5270636/2024/02/16/cubs-2024-top-prospects-keith-law?source=user-shared-article

Keith Law's list is predictably a bit bonkers

1. PCA

2. Shaw

3. Alcantara 

4. Horton

5. Busch

6. Rojas

7. Triantos

8. Caissie

9. Wicks

10. Christian Franklin 

11. Brown

12. Ballesteros 

13. Gray

14. Pedro Ramirez

15. Wiggins

16. Kohl Franklin

17. Mervis

18. Arias

19. Murray

20. Canario

 

[Jason Ross]

8 minutes ago, Bertz said:

https://theathletic.com/5270636/2024/02/16/cubs-2024-top-prospects-keith-law?source=user-shared-article

Keith Law's list is predictably a bit bonkers

1. PCA

2. Shaw

3. Alcantara 

4. Horton

5. Busch

6. Rojas

7. Triantos

8. Caissie

9. Wicks

10. Christian Franklin 

11. Brown

12. Ballesteros 

13. Gray

14. Pedro Ramirez

15. Wiggins

16. Kohl Franklin

17. Mervis

18. Arias

19. Murray

20. Canario

 

I've never been a big Law guy. He's a smart guy, he's no dummy, but I feel like he's simply too stubborn to ever consider new information or to change his mind. It feels like he makes very snap judgements and that's going to be it, forever, regardless of what new information is added. Even when I agree with him, I just have that nagging feeling in the back of my head that I just really don't love him as an evaluator. 

[Transmogrified Tiger]

Szymborski did a ZiPS Top 100 prospects, which I encourage you to click through because he starts with a retro from 10 years ago and you can see the 4 Cubs in the Top 8 of that list, and not all who you'd guess: https://blogs.fangraphs.com/zips-2024-top-100-prospects/

 

But for this year's list:
 

5. Shota (Yamamoto is 1 & Lee on the Giants is 15)

13. PCA

37. Alcantara

78. Shaw

82. Busch

97. Horton

[Tim]

46 minutes ago, Transmogrified Tiger said:

Szymborski did a ZiPS Top 100 prospects, which I encourage you to click through because he starts with a retro from 10 years ago and you can see the 4 Cubs in the Top 8 of that list, and not all who you'd guess: https://blogs.fangraphs.com/zips-2024-top-100-prospects/

 

But for this year's list:
 

6. Shota (Yamamoto is 1 & Lee on the Giants is 15)

13. PCA

37. Alcantara

78. Shaw

82. Busch

97. Horton

I believe Shota's actually fifth.

Also of note...

[Bertz]

 

Jefferson Rojas

Quote

Rojas has more of a power-driven profile with average contact. His physicality might eventually move him to either second or third base.

Haydn McGeary 

Quote

McGeary also had some of the best 2023 Trackman data in all of pro baseball. Before we declare either of these guys to be the next Paul Goldschmidt, let’s see them handle upper-level velo.

Michael Arias

Quote

Arias is a converted shortstop who moved to the mound around the time he signed with the Cubs. He’s walk-prone but has two impact pitches in his mid-90s fastball and upper-80s changeup. These two pitches alone should enable him to be a very good reliever at least. If he can refine his command and slider, he’s going to be a mid-rotation starter.

They also ran a list of guys their industry contacts picked, and Arias got a second mention and Drew Gray was named.

[Jason Ross]

Franklin is the type who will almost always make these rankings: the stuff is just too good to not dream on. He's got the right body type, the right stuff, and when you watch him, there's everything there sometimes to be a dominant, top of the rotation guy. He's still young enough at 24 where you can't write him entirely off. especially when you can say "if he could just be healthy enough...". I've fallen into the Franklin trap plenty and I'll be the first down that well again if he strings together his first two starts of 2024, if we're being honest. You can make claims like he's got the best fastball/changeup combo in the system still. 

In the end, he's probably never putting it together. He'll walk too many guys, he won't control the stuff and he'll flame out again...but with that glimmer of hope...throwing him in that back-end-ten...just makes sense. Just to have it in your back pocket in case he figures it out all out magically.

[craig]

On Franklin, Law noted that "Hitters teed off on his fastball last year, slugging over .550 on the pitch in Double A." 

He may be kinda fast, sometimes.  But that's really bad.  Hard to have high ceiling with a bad fastball.  Not sure how fixable that is.  Tom is a believer that wildmen can improve control with practice; I'm kinda skeptical, kinda feel like guys who lack the fine motor skills to locate a fastball semi-consistently at age 20 or 23 probably won't learn that at 24.  But, admittedly that may be too simplistic.  For example, sometimes a guy's arm slot or arm speed telegraph fastball versus offspeed, and they can sometimes tweak that and improve disguise.  Law says "The Cubs are trying to give him a two-seamer so he can get away from the hard contact on the four-seamer."  Maybe that will help and change things?  

But yeah, it just seems like it's kinda hard to work around both a badly ineffective fastball and bad control.  Hope he does it somehow.  

[Bertz]

15 minutes ago, craig said:

On Franklin, Law noted that "Hitters teed off on his fastball last year, slugging over .550 on the pitch in Double A." 

He may be kinda fast, sometimes.  But that's really bad.  Hard to have high ceiling with a bad fastball.  Not sure how fixable that is.  Tom is a believer that wildmen can improve control with practice; I'm kinda skeptical, kinda feel like guys who lack the fine motor skills to locate a fastball semi-consistently at age 20 or 23 probably won't learn that at 24.  But, admittedly that may be too simplistic.  For example, sometimes a guy's arm slot or arm speed telegraph fastball versus offspeed, and they can sometimes tweak that and improve disguise.  Law says "The Cubs are trying to give him a two-seamer so he can get away from the hard contact on the four-seamer."  Maybe that will help and change things?  

But yeah, it just seems like it's kinda hard to work around both a badly ineffective fastball and bad control.  Hope he does it somehow.  

I really want to see Franklin at Iowa so we can get Statcast data on him.  I have a suspicion that the movement on his fastball is poor.  I'm bad at a lot of the particulars of pitch design, but I know if you graph vertical and horizontal fastball movement there are there are certain dead zones where the combo gets murdered.  This is actually what happened to Taillon in the first half of last year IIRC.  I would not be surprised if that's Franklin's issue as well.

[Jason Ross]

1 hour ago, Bertz said:

I really want to see Franklin at Iowa so we can get Statcast data on him.  I have a suspicion that the movement on his fastball is poor.  I'm bad at a lot of the particulars of pitch design, but I know if you graph vertical and horizontal fastball movement there are there are certain dead zones where the combo gets murdered.  This is actually what happened to Taillon in the first half of last year IIRC.  I would not be surprised if that's Franklin's issue as well.

I think Frankin is your typical command/control issue, where Franklin's trying to fix his control (ability to throw strikes vs balls) by sacrificing command (throwing good strikes vs bad strikes). It's really hard to tell fastball shape with HD level TV's, let alone the iPhone7 quality of video we get in the MiLB at times, but I have a strong suspicion Franklin is piping fastballs to "just throw strikes". The result? He's getting that pitch absolutely hammered. 

[Post Count Padder]

Oh hey Cole Roederer is still around.

[We Got The Whole 9]

Big Mo got a shout-out from Ben Clemens in his less-heralded hitters he likes. His list has a common thread of short guys.

 

Relevant Stats: Ballesteros turned 20 in December after spending 2023 tearing through the minors. He simply looked too good for Low- and High-A as a 19-year-old before ending the season with a brief Double-A cameo. He walked nearly as often as he struck out, laced doubles to all fields, and ended up with double-digit home runs. He did all of that while catching at least passably well.

What I Like: He’s a 20-year-old catcher who can hit against older competition. It’s not exactly complicated. He’s another little guy, though with the thick frame you’d expect for a catcher, but he cranks out ludicrous power. I’m cheating a little bit by including him here, even; he made the tail end of a few Top 100 lists this year, and I wouldn’t be surprised if he’s on ours in a mid-season update. Hit the ball as hard as Ballesteros does, at such a young age, and you almost certainly have the raw power to make it work in the majors. Do it as a catcher with plus batting lines against older competition, and you might be a star in the making.

Warning Signs: (Lack of) proximity is the biggest one. There’s plenty of time for Ballesteros to wash out at catcher, or for his approach to run out of steam against tougher competition. He hits the snot out of the ball, with impressive batted ball data even if you ignore how young he is, but that kind of power from someone his size always feels a little tenuous, and if he isn’t a catcher, he’s a positionless defender, which means his bat will have to carry a huge burden. I think that’s a manageable risk, but it’s undoubtedly a risk.

 

 

[CubinNY]

26 minutes ago, We Got The Whole 9 said:

Big Mo got a shout-out from Ben Clemens in his less-heralded hitters he likes. His list has a common thread of short guys.

 

Relevant Stats: Ballesteros turned 20 in December after spending 2023 tearing through the minors. He simply looked too good for Low- and High-A as a 19-year-old before ending the season with a brief Double-A cameo. He walked nearly as often as he struck out, laced doubles to all fields, and ended up with double-digit home runs. He did all of that while catching at least passably well.

What I Like: He’s a 20-year-old catcher who can hit against older competition. It’s not exactly complicated. He’s another little guy, though with the thick frame you’d expect for a catcher, but he cranks out ludicrous power. I’m cheating a little bit by including him here, even; he made the tail end of a few Top 100 lists this year, and I wouldn’t be surprised if he’s on ours in a mid-season update. Hit the ball as hard as Ballesteros does, at such a young age, and you almost certainly have the raw power to make it work in the majors. Do it as a catcher with plus batting lines against older competition, and you might be a star in the making.

Warning Signs: (Lack of) proximity is the biggest one. There’s plenty of time for Ballesteros to wash out at catcher, or for his approach to run out of steam against tougher competition. He hits the snot out of the ball, with impressive batted ball data even if you ignore how young he is, but that kind of power from someone his size always feels a little tenuous, and if he isn’t a catcher, he’s a positionless defender, which means his bat will have to carry a huge burden. I think that’s a manageable risk, but it’s undoubtedly a risk.

 

 

Ballesteros is one I want to see pictures of in ST. If he can drop 20 pounds, look out

[Rob]

1 hour ago, CubinNY said:

Ballesteros is one I want to see pictures of in ST. If he can drop 20 pounds, look out

We aren't selling blue jeans here. I want them shorter and fatter!

[Rex Buckingham]

17 hours ago, Rob said:

We aren't selling blue jeans here. I want them shorter and fatter!

like a dang fire hydrant

[CubinNY]

7 minutes ago, Rex Buckingham said:

like a dang fire hydrant

When I was a little kid the Cubs had a catcher for a while named Barry Foote who fit that description. 

[Jason Ross]

Prospect L:ive 100 dropped today

PCA - 16
Horton - 17
Shaw - 29 (outside of Langford, Skenes and Crew he's the 4th highest in last draft) 
Alcantara - 59
Busch - 65
Caissie - 68