2023-24 Offseason Prospect Lists

[Transmogrified Tiger]

I'm of the opinion that we're probably a little higher on Wicks than his results have justified, we've kinda memory holed his unremarkable AAA performance and emphasized his first couple MLB starts while ignoring his disastrous end of season.  But no it's not at all a stretch that the guy with 1st round pedigree who has reached AAA/MLB is thought more highly than Ferris.  

Wicks had cartoon K numbers in the low minors too, and while I'm not going to say they're absolutely equivalent on stuff, it's a poor comparison to cite what Ferris is 'sitting' at in 9-12 out starts while Wicks is going 6 innings w/ regularity. "Sits mid 90s" is also doing some heavy lifting, both Pipeline and Fangraphs quote his fastball as "92-95".  Maybe Ferris gets a bump with conditioning and age/maturity, at which point he'll need to improve his command and then ascend 3 more levels in 3 years to reach the point Wicks has thus far.

There's more to dream on than Wicks(who again, has had more bouts of mediocrity than we've collectively acknowledged), but I don't think there's enough from Ferris to justify ranking the latter over the former based on what we've seen.

[Bertz]

476 pitchers threw at least 30 innings in MLB last year.  Jordan Wicks ranked 431st in K rate and 459th in Stuff+.  Now I think the Stuff+ number on Fangraphs does a piss poor job of measuring changeups, but still he's clearly below average from a stuff perspective.

I like Wicks, I'd probably give him the 5th starter spot to open next year.  But I'm not supremely confident in him succeeding immediately to open next year and I'm frankly pretty down on his longterm upside.  

[Jason Ross]

Oh you guys! I love you. You just gave me another article to write! I was going to leave it be as a post here but then I realized just how far the rabbit hole goes.

Sneak peak: I'm actually more bullish now on Wicks. There's actually some cool process stuff to where I think he can work on his whiff%, and let me tell you this: there's some indication of really being a strong contact-limiter that people haven't really brought up yet.

End result, I land in the middle of the two camps. I don't see a star. I am more and more confident there's a strong #4 in there.

[CaliforniaRaisin]

16. PCA
26. Horton 
47. Caissie
51. Busch
54. Shaw
65. Alcántara
73. Triantos

[CaliforniaRaisin]

18. PCA
30. Horton
37. Shaw
41. Wicks
43. Caissie

[Transmogrified Tiger]

All 5 are in Kiley's 55 FV tier, PCA being the highest ranked player not to be up in 60 or greater.

[Bertz]

"Owen Caissie: Consensus Top 50 Prospect" is something I think is pretty warranted but still shocked to see.  I'm looking forward to the pretzels Keith Law ties himself into when he leaves him off of his list though.  He was doing his Keith Law thing last summer and talking down to everyone excited about him because of the K rate.

A little surprised at no Busch or Alcantara.  I feel like leaving either off is fine but both is weird since they're so diametrically different (extreme tools and ceiling vs. extreme production and floor).

[craig]

Yeah, fun to see Wicks rated so high.  Kiley's reports on his stuff were all unusually favorable.  Super bummer that Wicks didn't make top-100 from BA or Pipeline.  I'd have really loved to have had both Wicks and Busch eligible for the Prospect Promotion Incentive.  

I've wondered whether, if Wicks hadn't gotten roasted in his last 3 starts, whether BA or pipeline might have top-100'd him.  Oh well.  I hope he wins ROY, just so I can be more bitter that we don't get a pick for him!  Or, better yet, I'll just hope Busch or PCA win ROY, with Wicks coming in 2nd or 3rd!  :):)

[Rex Buckingham]

None of those guys will win it, because Horton will break camp with the big league team and win it. 

[Transmogrified Tiger]

BP has the Cubs with the 2nd overall farm system, behind the Orioles (free with login): https://www.baseballprospectus.com/prospects/article/87996/2024-prospects-organizational-prospect-rankings/

Quote

2. Chicago Cubs

Strengths: They had the most OFP 60 or better prospects of any of these teams
Weaknesses: They just don’t have the elite talent of the Orioles

 

[Hrubes20]

Tough to see anyone other than Yamamoto winning the NL ROY as long as he stays healthy.  

[mul21]

Cubs ranked #2 behind the Orioles in farm systems by Kiley McDaniel at ESPN.  Anybody have a BA membership and can share the Cubs ranking there?

[CaliforniaRaisin]

1 hour ago, mul21 said:

Cubs ranked #2 behind the Orioles in farm systems by Kiley McDaniel at ESPN.  Anybody have a BA membership and can share the Cubs ranking there?

BA has the Cubs 4th behind Baltimore, Milwaukee and Texas.

[We Got The Whole 9]

9 hours ago, TomtheBombadil said:

Random Pipeline Top 100 hot takes now that I've glanced:

- I'm taking Wyatt Langford (6) over Evan Carter (5) all day, especially in the context of like this being the league's list. Carters' excellent, but Langford's maybe the best bat prospect in the minors right now. Dude put up .373/.498/.784 in the SEC with a 56:44 BB/K over 303 PAs *and then* took 200 MiLB PAs into AAA putting up .360/.480/.677 with a 36/34 BB/K. Guy's nuts, probably should have taken him 1 lol (I thought Crews was the obvious choice).

- Now that I think about it: Langford's got a pretty great case to be the #1 prospect in baseball. We're talking .361/.472/.700 in 983 PAs btw NCAA, summer leagues, Rk, A+, AA, and AAA. The AAA line included .368/.539/.526 and a 6/6 K:BB in 26 PAs

- Tbh I'm probably also taking Walker Jenkins over Evan Carter in the career long run. He came in and K'd 14 times over 115 PAs btw Rk and A .362/.417/.571, was getting comped to like JD Drew and Josh Hamilton as an amateur. This is less a knock on Carter and more to the superstar talent of guys like Langford and Jenkins.

- They stingy towards SP. Skenes is at 3 and the next one, Kyle Harrison, doesn't show up until 23. Harrison, Jobe, Painter, Horton, Noble Meyer, Waldrep, Dollander, Solometo (82!), Thorpe, Petty, Snelling can start mixing as high as 7. The MiLB SP talent is pretty riveting rn tbh

- Xavier Isaac, the Rays's surprise 1st in 2022, has alot of Rizzo to him, seems like a well rounded 1B prospect. Schanuel can probably be much higher than 95 too

Some prospects not on there that I was a little bummed not to see:

Wikelman Gonzalez - Among the best conditioned pitchers in the minors, features command of 3 power pitches and an advanced delivery that are belied by his walk rate. I like him better than both Misorowski and Lowder (33 and 34). Maybe too hot a take is you'd have to go back to like pre-shoulder stuff Anibal Sanchez and Jon Lester days to find a more interesting SP prospect in the Red Sox org. A lighter version of Gonzalez who probably wouldn't be out of place in the back half is Blade Tidwell in the Mets org

Kumar Rocker - This guy stays getting clowned as a prospect and TJ certainly doesn't help. He is less physical than you'd think with the dims and at first glance, you wonder if the stress of a half decade from like age 17 on under the internet's microscope before they even paid him did some work, something hopefully they can go after during rehab

Ralphy Velazquez - Similar to Samuel Basallo (17) as a 6'3" LHH/RH C/1B but ultimately may have the higher ceiling bat with higher average, more power, and an all around better approach

Luis Morales - The much ballyhooed Cuban RHSP pitched from the DSL to High A in the Oakland org, features big velo and high ceiling secondaries. I got a chuckle reading BA's writeup that mentioned Morales being the highest bonus Oakland has given out to a pitcher since Ynoa in 2009, but they left out that Morales (an even more highly regarded prospect with prospect experience at 17 in Cuba) signed for a million less nearly 15 years later

Too lazy to keep going...Some may jest that I left Gallardo, Murray Jr., and Ethan Hearn off the list. I would say you're being silly on 2/3 but now that I think about it yeah BJ Murray has enough going on going into 2024. He's certainly more deserving than Triantos at 73, and getting an invite to the most recent Futures Game definitely meant industry eyes and ears noticed so I'll just assume it's a combo of age, draft pedigree, noise, nonsense

 

Langford's numbers are unreal. He looks like a force for the next 15 years. 

[Bertz]

18.  PCA

26. Matt Shaw

28. Kevin Alcantara

49. Cade Horton

68. Michael Busch

 

Edited February 5, 2024 by Bertz

[Transmogrified Tiger]

Horton is 49, not 29.

 

Sometimes I get a little annoyed that Fangraphs' publishing schedule for prospect content is so delayed and inconsistent.  Then I see the content from another largely one person operation like Law's list and think maybe that's just how it has to be to not sound ridiculous.

[CubinNY]

18 minutes ago, Transmogrified Tiger said:

Horton is 49, not 29.

 

Sometimes I get a little annoyed that Fangraphs' publishing schedule for prospect content is so delayed and inconsistent.  Then I see the content from another largely one person operation like Law's list and think maybe that's just how it has to be to not sound ridiculous.

At least he was nice about the Cubs players. 

[Bertz]

45 minutes ago, Transmogrified Tiger said:

Horton is 49, not 29.

 

Sometimes I get a little annoyed that Fangraphs' publishing schedule for prospect content is so delayed and inconsistent.  Then I see the content from another largely one person operation like Law's list and think maybe that's just how it has to be to not sound ridiculous.

Ah good catch!  Just fixed it.

Yeah it's tough.  Like most years Longenhagen hasn't finished until damn near draft day, and those last half dozen lists are basically out of date the second they go live.  But at the same time they are so much more thorough than any others (particularly for teams that ST in Arizona), so you don't want to look a gift horse in the mouth.

I feel like they should do those "Imminent Big Leaguer" articles promptly at the start of the winter and then he can take his sweet time writing about lower levels and complex league miscellany. 

[CubinNY]

Who was the top 10 pick who fell off the list and why?

[Transmogrified Tiger]

12 minutes ago, CubinNY said:

Who was the top 10 pick who fell off the list and why?

Looks like Diego Cartaya, the Dodger catcher.  As for why, his batting line tells a pretty compelling story: 

[craig]

On 2/1/2024 at 10:17 AM, Hrubes20 said:

Tough to see anyone other than Yamamoto winning the NL ROY as long as he stays healthy.  

If Yamamoto wins the ROY, will the Dodgers still get a free draft pick in the 30's?  No, I guess not.  Neither BA nor Pipeline included him in their top-100 lists.  

Edited February 5, 2024 by craig

[Tryptamine]

Oh look, Keith Law is doubling down on a prospect(Caissie) despite him being a unanimous top 100 and mostly top 60 prospect in the game outside of him. I'm shocked, shocked I tell you. 

[Bertz]

Quote

 

1. Pete Crow-Armstrong, CF, 55 FV (18th on the Top 100)

2. Cade Horton, RHP, 55 FV (30)

3. Matt Shaw, 2B, 55 FV (37)

4. Jordan Wicks, LHP, 55 FV (41)

5. Owen Caissie, RF, 55 FV (43)

6. Kevin Alcantara, CF, 50 FV (103)

7. Michael Busch, 3B, 50 FV (118)

8. James Triantos, 2B, 45+ FV (121)

9. Ben Brown, RHP, 45+ FV (161)

10. Moises Ballesteros, C, 45+ FV (166)

11. Jefferson Rojas, SS, 45 FV

12. Cristian Hernandez, SS, 45 FV

13. Fernando Cruz, SS, 40+ FV

14. Alexander Canario, RF, 40+ FV

15. Caleb Kilian, RHP, 40+ FV

16. Haydn McGeary, 1B, 40 FV

17. Michael Arias, RHP, 40 FV

18. Jaxon Wiggins, RHP, 40 FV

19. Luke Little, LHP, 40 FV

20. Brandon Birdsell, RHP, 40 FV

21. Will Sanders, RHP, 40 FV

22. Josh Rivera, SS, 40 FV

23. Brennen Davis, RF, 40 FV

24. Michael Carico, C, 40 FV

25. Porter Hodge, RHP, 40 FV

26. Derniche Valdez, SS, 40 FV

27. Matt Mervis, 1B, 40 FV

28. B.J. Murray Jr., 1B, 40 FV

29. Luis Vazquez, SS, 40 FV

30. Zachary Leigh, RHP, 40 FV

31. Nazier Mule, RHP, 40 FV

32. Riley Martin, LHP, 40 FV

33. Drew Gray, LHP, 40 FV

 

The numbers next to Alcantara through Ballesteros is where they would rank globally if he went beyond 100 names on his top 100.

Feels criminally low on Gray and Murray and criminally high on Kilian but otherwise not much I'd more than quibble with.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

Murray being listed as a 1B is probably the telling thing about his ranking.

[Bertz]

18. Horton

20. PCA

32. Shaw

33. Alcantara

43. Wicks

65. Caissie

84. Busch