The Cubs drafted Matt Shaw, the former Maryland Terrapin shortstop, in the first round of the 2023 draft, but he does not appear to be a future shortstop at the highest level. Will he be a second baseman? A third baseman? And where do we think he fits into the long-term plan?

2023 Season Review
The Big 10 has a great reputation for producing first-round draft picks in football, hockey, and basketball. Sadly for the conference, it does not have a long history of producing the same high-impact baseball draft picks. Matt Shaw, Big 10 player of the year in 2023, hopes to show that the Big 10 can produce hitters just like they can NFL quarterbacks. Selected 13th overall, the Cubs hope Matt Shaw can become a power threat in the middle of their order.

One thing that is clear with Shaw is that he's got impressive power despite his size. Standing at a listed 5'11" and weighing in at 185 lbs, the diminutive infielder doesn't look like a player who would become the all-time home run hitter at a Power-5 conference. Despite this, he hit over 50 home runs during three seasons at Maryland, punctuated by his impressive junior year. Shaw was not recruited as a future first-rounder but let his bat do the talking. Improving his batting average, on base, slugging, home runs, OPS, stolen bases, and doubles from his sophomore to his junior year, it was hard to deny that come to the All-Star break, someone was going to grab the athletic Terp shortstop relatively high in the draft. 

Upon being drafted by the Cubs, Shaw was immediately sent to the Arizona Complex league. In just three games, it was clear the former college product would not stay in Arizona long, picking up a .500 batting average in his first 11 plate appearances. While South Bend would likely present a higher challenge, this was also quickly proven false.

At South Bend, the hitter would take only a further 89 PAs to force a promotion once again. Hitting .393 over 20 games, with four home runs, four doubles, and three triples on his way to a whopping 197 wRC+, Shaw once again proved that minor league hitting at this level wasn't a problem for him. More impressive than those numbers may have been his 13.5% strikeout rate. Shaw does tend to swing early and often, but his bat-to-ball skills and a swing that shortens his large leg kick with two strikes helped him keep the strikeouts quite low. On August 27th, the Cubs decided they had seen enough and once again promoted the young hitter to Tennessee. 

Another level yet similar story would ensue. Matt Shaw would be a vital member of the Southern League Championship-winning Tennessee Smokies in another small, albeit impressive sample size. In 15 games, Shaw would hit another three home runs, four doubles, and a triple, finishing with a 120 wRC+. By the end of the season, Shaw had just 170 PAs but had already sped through three levels with strong successes at each.

Not everything was perfect, however, as there was one glaring flaw in the power hitter's game: his plate approach. Displaying a hyper-aggressive "swing at almost anything" style at the plate, Shaw walked under 5% of the time at every level. While his strikeouts remain in check, his highest strikeout rate is just over 17% at AA Tennessee. Eventually, pitchers are going to be good enough to begin to exploit his free-swinging style. This is something to watch as we move forward into 2024. 

2024 Season Outlook and ETA
It's expected that Shaw is at least placed back in Tennessee to begin the season, as 15 games is likely too small of a sample size for the Cubs to assume he's mastered the level (though it took only a few more at high-A South Bend for the Cubs to move him up, so who knows?). If the slugger can continue where he left off, it will likely be a short stay, and by May 1st, he could even see his bags packed for Iowa. This is a fairly decently likely outcome with how comfortable he looked last year at the level. Iowa, however, should provide the kind of challenge he should need.

Getting Shaw to stay within the zone and pick out his strikes (and not just any old strike) will be important for his development. A >5% walk rate is too low, and the hitter will eventually start getting himself out on pitcher's strikes. His bat-to-ball skills are certainly a plus, as well as his power, but if he swings at everything, he won't get himself into the kinds of favorable counts that will allow him to flash that power. There's something to be said about waiting for your pitch, and while there's likely always going to be a fairly aggressive style, taking the foot off the gas just a little would probably be good for him.

Defensively, it's hard to pick where he'll end up. First things first: He's not a shortstop at the next level. He's a little squatty, and while he's athletic, he won't stick here. When asked who Shaw compares himself to, he has said, "Dustin Pedroia," you can see it in his stature, his bat, and, if he ends up at second base, his position. The problem is the Cubs don't have an opening at second base after they locked up Nico Hoerner until 2026 at least (unless a trade changes that, but that feels unlikely).

With how fast the Cubs have pushed Shaw and their current major league roster needing a better solution as of writing this article, his ultimate home in Chicago may be at third. Third base, though, is a bit of an awkward fit because the Terp isn't expected to be a shortstop due to his lack of arm strength (usually considered a necessity for solid third base defense). The Cubs did a great job of extracting plus defense out of another weak-armed second baseman last year in Nick Madrigal, a player who I never thought would be a capable third baseman, so it's unfair to discount this path as impossible. 

When will we see Matt Shaw coming to a major league stadium? It's possible to see him any time mid-season, though it shouldn't be counted on. The Cubs similarly pushed Kyle Schwarber from draft day to the MLB roster, as he debuted after just 124 games in the minor leagues between 2014 and 2015. It's hard to say that will happen here, as Shaw has under 50 games, but by July 1st, he'd pick up another 60 or so games and be fairly close to that total. Suppose the Cubs keep the current cast of characters at the third base position (Nick Madrigal recently re-signed Patrick Wisdom and Miles Mastrobuoni). In that case, poor production or an injury (at either second or third) could create an opening for him to slip through. However, he will likely make his MLB debut later, maybe even in September. The Cubs shouldn't count on Shaw but shouldn't discount the idea that he could be ready, either. Regardless, it should be a fun follow, and he has many of the hallmarks of a fast riser.