2024 Season Review - Owen Caissie - RF/1B/DH
Owen Caissie had a season that we can effectively split in two, and both showed some positives and some negatives. Caissie, who earned a promotion to Triple-A Iowa at the start of the 2024 season, had displayed improved contact rates Double-A by the end of the 2023 season. That trend seemingly continued at the start of his new campaign. While not an eye-popping number, the slugger hovered around the 27% K% range for much of the first half of the 2024 season. For someone who will walk a lot, and should provide power, these numbers fall into the "not great, but passable" range. At the same time, his contact rates were in the low 70's, which were slightly below league average, but fit into that same "passable" category. 

However, when looking at his power numbers, both the raw counting numbers and rate stats, they fell short of expectations. As always, it is important to put things into some context. Caissie was much younger than the International League's average, starting his season at the ripe age of 21. Regardless, fans expected more than a .443 Slugging Percentage and an Isolated Power of .164. He hit just eight home runs through his first 76 games. One thing Caissie has always needed to work more on was pulling the ball more, and gaining more lift. But remember, this is a tale of two seasons.

After the MiLB all-star break, a new Owen Caissie came to play, this time, he showed off a much improved power approach. Over his last 51 games, Caissie managed to hit 11 home runs, increased his ISO to .240, and his SLG ballooned to .516. He accomplished this in two ways - first, he greatly improved his pull rate, and secondly, greatly improved his lift - two things we've really been waiting for him to do. This is a clear approach and swing difference and it paid off in the power department.

Sure, we wish it was all roses and peaches, but that isn't realistic. Player development is rarely linear. Caissie struggled a bit more in the second half of the season. First, he had an increase in strike outs. Over the last 51 games his K% crept over the 29% range and was over 30% his final 33 games. Those rates are similar to what we saw in his younger days. Secondly, his contact rate dropped into the mid 60's, which is a 4% reduction. Clearly his new damage approach came coupled with an addition of the strikeouts and less contact. The hope is that as the approach matures further that these lesson again, but it is also probably noteworthy that when you sell out for power and damage, these are usually apart of the territory. 

Season Outlook and Scouting Report - ETA: Summer 2025
If you've been paying attention to prospect rankings, you'd be remiss if you didn't notice his name sliding down them a bit. There has been more and one evaluator who has pointed out that the power production hasn't matched the body type yet, and the hit-tool is never going to wow anyone from a contact point of view., I'd caution you to pause on worrying about them, because I think there's equal parts prospect fatigue and underlying things that make these a bit unfair. 

The big-bodied outfielder has been around a handful of years and has always remained very underage for his level, being among the absolute youngest hitters wherever he's gone. This will obviously add context at times to his numbers; being as large as Caissie makes you forget that he's so young for his level and learning how to harness that can take time. It creates a bit of a fatigue as his time in the minors wears on a bit - he's no longer new and shiny and especially being so young, it means he's needed more time than say, Matt Shaw. But that doesn't mean progress isn't evident and we saw that with his approach and swing changes in the second half.

In a vacuum, Owen Caissie represents a different breed of prospect than the Cubs have had in a while - someone who falls more into the "masher" mold than the others. He's power over hit, and with that strikeouts will happen. Despite those things, the left handed hitter has not shown concerns in being a platoon-type, and has made progress defensively.

I don't see a simple DH or first base only type here (at least in the interim, let's call it, the next two to five years). I'd like to (and expect him) to see some time at 1b with the loss of Matt Mervis, as any Busch injury will almost require either one of Caissie or Ballesteros to be called up and thrust into duty. With the additional pull rates, and added power, I'd be careful if I was sitting under the screen in right field...and watch out for ricochets ser. His legitimate 60 grade arm will help there as well, a sometime this summer.