The hulking Canadian outfielder has some of the most prodigious power in the system. The Cubs have aggressively moved him from level to level. How has his development gone so far? And when might we see the Big Maple in Chicago?

2023 Season Review
Entering 2023, few Cub prospects have been pushed as aggressively as Owen Caissie. Making his debut in South Bend before he turned 20 and subsequently making his first start in Tennessee before being legally able to purchase alcohol in the States, Caissie has rocketed through the system at a breakneck pace. At times, he's struggled with swing and miss; other times, he's dazzled with his power. 2023 was another strong season for the giant right-fielder, perhaps his best. 

If there's been a single knock on Caissie, it's that there are significant amounts of swing and miss in his game. A quick look on his Baseball-Reference page or his FanGraphs would lead one to believe that not only had this issue continued, but it had gotten even worse, as his season strikeout rate was 31.1%, tying the highest number he's had at any level. More so than any other prospect in the system, however, this number is highly misleading. 

As I have discussed ad nauseam in these rankings, the first reason is the appearance of the pre-tacked baseball that the Southern League used throughout the first half of the season. During this time, the lumbering slugger struck out 33.9% of the time, an alarmingly high number, regardless of his age, but even many of these strikeouts come very early in his stint. This makes sense; Caissie was one of the youngest players in the entire league. We see improvement from May to July 9th, as he lowered that number to just under 30%. Things get very interesting after switching the ball, and Caissie lowered his number to 27%. A clear progression and learning occurred for the Canadian, and this might be one of the season's biggest storylines for any Cub MiLB hitter. Caissie will always strike out, but he will be very good if he can maintain a level in the high 20s.

Secondly, we must accept that left-handed hitters don't hit left-handed pitchers well at any level. That's not every player, but there is a league-wide issue. As a whole, left-handed hitters at the major league level hit a paltry 90 wRC+ against left-handed pitching. If we look deeper into Caissie's numbers and isolate his data against right-handed pitchers, the strikeout rate goes even further down...to just 25%. That's not just with the non-pre-tacked baseball... that's all season. 

Overall, Caissie's numbers looked great, though. He improved his wRC+ despite the level jump, hitting a solid 144 wRC+. His exit velocities weren't just elite for AA but just elite. It would be impressive enough if the 20-year-old posted the 15th-best average exit velocity in the Southern League, even more so if it was the 15th-best in all of the minor leagues, but what Caissie did was have the 15th-best exit velocity in every level of baseball. This is what elite power looks like.

Defensively, it sounds like Caissie made progress in right field. He boasts a 60-grade arm, so the question with him will always be, "Can he move enough?". While this is a question that most in the industry accept will eventually be "no," we aren't there yet. He made a few highlight plays throughout the season and threw out even more runners with the arm. At least for now, projecting a bit of time where Caissie has decent enough defense at the position is on the table. 

2024 Season Outlook and ETA
Owen Caissie is ticketed for Iowa in 2024 as a 21-year-old. He's six months younger than Pete Crow-Armstrong and is on a similar timeline as the centerfielder. His wRC+ and offensive numbers are better than similar power-hitting-outfielders like James Woods of the Washington Nationals, someone considered by all to be a top-25 prospect and by many to be a top-10 prospect. Granted, part of that is the defensive projection (more on that later), but Caissie is criminally underrated. 

I expect Caissie will struggle, probably through sometime in May; this is a big jump. He's shown a consistent pattern of struggle-growth these last few years in which the first 30-45 days have moments of brilliance surrounded by strikeouts and poor results. But then he begins to figure it out and proves he's ready for the next challenge by the end of the year. There's a world where Owen Caissie helps the Cubs in 2024 at the major league level, though 2025 feels more doable. With the corner spots blocked today, his path will likely be at either first base or DH (depending on this offseason). There's also a chance he's traded... there is risk here with the contact. If he can strike out around 27-30% of the time, he will probably be an excellent power-hitting player. If he's over 30%, it becomes far more difficult to project if he'll walk and hit enough to remain relevant.

The upside on Owen Caissie, regardless of risk, is pretty big. He hits for power, and when he hits, he hits the ball hard. There's legitimate 70-grade power in his body, and you can easily envision him becoming a 35+ home run hitter. Is there some platoon risk as well? Sure, but as discussed, this issue is league-wide right now and doesn't seem unique to the power-hitting outfielder. As we progress in a data-driven world, platoon matchups are just a part of the game, and as a left-handed hitter, he would still be on the "strong" side of the platoon, hitting more often than his right-handed-hitting counterpart. Even if he's confined to a less premium position, he does well enough with the bat where a natural path forward exists, too. I'm a big fan of the future here, and I can't wait to see him (hopefully) peppering Waveland and Avenue with bombs sooner rather than later.