Suddenly, Hitters Are Having a Much Easier Time Timing Up Phil Maton

When the Cubs gave Phil Maton a two-year contract worth $14.5 million over the winter, they expected him to solidify the back end of the bullpen and be a bridge to Daniel Palencia. It was an understandable contract for a reliever who has been pretty consistent since the 2020 season. Unfortunately, the contract is not off to a good start, as Maton has not been the steadying presence the Cubs hoped. What's gone wrong for the veteran reliever this year?

In 2025, Maton turned in arguably his best season yet, with the highest bWAR of his career and the lowest FIP. He lit up his Baseball Savant page in red, despite one of the slowest fastball velos in the league at 89.6 MPH. That does feel like a pitcher who will age pretty well; he was already getting away with lower velocity. Primarily a two-pitch pitcher with nearly 75% of his pitches being the curveball and cutter, he was a master at messing with hitters' timing. The new Statcast timing metrics give us some really clear examples.

At just 17%, batters were on time for Maton’s curveball less often last year than on any other major-league pitcher’s pitch. Only two pitches were under 22%! When you narrow the list to only fastball pitch types, hitters were on time for just 53% of Maton’s fastballs, good for 4th-best in MLB. His sinker and sweeper were less impressive, but he just didn’t throw them as much. With him throwing 38% curveball and 36% cutter, he rarely let hitters be on time with their swings. 

So far in 2026, Maton’s curveball has been even better, at a paltry 11% on-time swings. This is great! His fastballs tell a different story, though. Batters are no longer late on his cutter or sinker, with both dropping 10 percentage points. His fastball velo, however, is higher than it was last year. You read that right. He is throwing his fastballs harder and yet, he is getting many fewer late swings. What gives?

The clearest issue is Maton’s pitch mix. He is throwing 10% fewer curveballs and has replaced those pitches with fastball pitch types. Batters are also swinging at only half of his curveballs, a rate lower than any year since 2020. Batters seem to have decided it doesn’t benefit them to swing at the curveball that was the highest run value curveball in the major leagues last year. I can’t blame them! The Cubs and Maton have decided to throw that pitch less often this year, despite it still generating the best results of any of his pitches. Since he is throwing less breaking stuff, hitters are able to time the fastballs better; hence the jump in the number of on-time swings on his fastballs.        

Why the Cubs would spend the money to acquire a veteran reliever coming off his best season and have him go away from what made him so valuable is anyone’s guess. If the Cubs want to get the Maton they signed, they should let him be the pitcher he was last year. Unless and until they do, the floggings will continue, and morale will not improve.