Going somewhere, Soto? Yes, to the Yankees

[JD94]

 

Yeah I think it’s pretty clear to understand why SD has decided to cut payroll. 

[Jason Ross]

Just now, JD94 said:

 

Yeah I think it’s pretty clear to understand why SD has decided to cut payroll. 

Yeah, I think Juan Soto being traded sounds like a very likely thing. And I'd guess it's something they'd prefer to get done quicker rather than later. It gives them an offseason direction and a plan (probably why we're already getting rumors the Yankees may or may not have talked to the Padres already). 

[Transmogrified Tiger]

Morel has been in the Cubs organization for 7 years and played more 3B than any other position as a professional.  He has been extremely, unplayably error prone at 3B(1300 pro innings) and SS(800 innings) while being better at 2B(600 innings.) I get that he's not played all that much there at the MLB level, but they are not flying blind if they make a call on his defensive home, especially as it relates to 3B.

[Stratos]

1 hour ago, 1908_Cubs said:

Well, it depends on what you mean. If you mean the only way the Cubs will know if Morel can play 3b is by having him play there in the regular season, then, no.  Morel isn't going to sit on a couch between today and April. You and I won't have baseball savant data.  I'm sure the Cubs can figure out a way between today and Opening Day (winter ball, instructs, camps, training, etc) as to whether or not he can play 3b.  They also have data and scouting from his MiLB days when he played 3b.  The Cubs were able to find out if Nick Madrigal could play 3b over the same amount of time just last offseason and they didn't even have MiLB data or scouting on him at that position because he hadn't played there as a professional.

 

There are 5 full months between now and Opening Day.  If the Cubs are interested in finding out, they will.

If the Cubs are going judge Morel's ability to play 3B adequately from a month of winter ball and taking some groundballs in camp after not playing the position for a year they're fools and deserve what they get.  He needs to play.

[Jason Ross]

8 minutes ago, Stratos said:

If the Cubs are going judge Morel's ability to play 3B adequately from a month of winter ball and taking some groundballs in camp after not playing the position for a year they're fools and deserve what they get.  He needs to play.

He has five months. If the Cubs cannot use the 1,300 innings of data they already have on him at 3b in the MiLB over his career, plus 5 months of winter ball, work with coaches, daily ground balls, etc to determine if they think he's got a future at the position in the MLB, than the Cubs are not being run by the right people.

You and I need baseball savant data to talk defense. The Chicago Cubs do not. How exactly do you think the Chicago Cubs came to the conclusion that Nick Madrigal could play 3b last offseason?

Edited November 1, 2023 by 1908_Cubs

[Rcal10]

1 hour ago, Stratos said:

If the Cubs are going judge Morel's ability to play 3B adequately from a month of winter ball and taking some groundballs in camp after not playing the position for a year they're fools and deserve what they get.  He needs to play.

I don’t agree with this. If they work with him they should know. If their plan is to exclusively let him work with someone playing third and he does it for several months they should, and most likely will, know if he can handle it. He doesn’t have to play a season or even a few months of a season for them to know. 

[gocubs218]

1 hour ago, Stratos said:

If the Cubs are going judge Morel's ability to play 3B adequately from a month of winter ball and taking some groundballs in camp after not playing the position for a year they're fools and deserve what they get.  He needs to play.

They’ve judged it from the past 7 years he’s been in the organization. 

[We Got The Whole 9]

Just trade for Machado 

[JHBulls]

11 hours ago, Petrey10 said:

Pls get both Soto and Alonso. That would be awesome

Yep. If a rabble like Arizona can make a World Series, you would think Soto and Alonso would make a big difference to the Cubs prospects  

[Stratos]

3 hours ago, Rcal10 said:

I don’t agree with this. If they work with him they should know. If their plan is to exclusively let him work with someone playing third and he does it for several months they should, and most likely will, know if he can handle it. He doesn’t have to play a season or even a few months of a season for them to know. 

Well as 1908 said they'll have to make a decision there.  If they don't want him at 3B then we need a 3B.  Maybe flip him for someone similar (young/cheap) who can actually play 3B with a team that needs a middle infielder.  They could also just give Morel and Mervis a shot and acquire someone like Jorge Polanco or someone else who can play 3B/1B to back them up and/or platoon at times.  Someone better than a replacement scrub that can't field like Mancini.  You trade Morel for Soto and the Cubs are right at the tax line and don't have a 3B, an 1B, or CF.

Between Soto, Alonso, Bellinger, Yamamoto, Ohtani etc I can see the Cubs landing one, but highly doubt they'll grab more than one and push the payroll to $260m or whatever it would take.  Next year they either need to spend over the CBT or find more surplus and with cheapo Ricketts we know which direction we'll need to go.  We can't keep filling every position with players making FA salaries with a cheap owner and expect to be a 95 win team.

[Rcal10]

9 hours ago, Stratos said:

Well as 1908 said they'll have to make a decision there.  If they don't want him at 3B then we need a 3B.  Maybe flip him for someone similar (young/cheap) who can actually play 3B with a team that needs a middle infielder.  They could also just give Morel and Mervis a shot and acquire someone like Jorge Polanco or someone else who can play 3B/1B to back them up and/or platoon at times.  Someone better than a replacement scrub that can't field like Mancini.  You trade Morel for Soto and the Cubs are right at the tax line and don't have a 3B, an 1B, or CF.

Between Soto, Alonso, Bellinger, Yamamoto, Ohtani etc I can see the Cubs landing one, but highly doubt they'll grab more than one and push the payroll to $260m or whatever it would take.  Next year they either need to spend over the CBT or find more surplus and with cheapo Ricketts we know which direction we'll need to go.  We can't keep filling every position with players making FA salaries with a cheap owner and expect to be a 95 win team.

If they feel Morel can play 3rd I would be ok with him there and then trying Mervis at 1st again. Then, like you said either trade for Polanco or someone else that can play 1st or 3rd. Or they can sign Candelario as a fall back at either position  or Garver/Hoskins as a fall back at 1st. Also whoever they got could be a DH option as well. That would leave them enough to either sign a higher end pitcher. Maybe not Yamamoto, but maybe Montgomery. Or they can trade PCA for a young controlled pitcher and bring back Bellinger. As you said, they can’t fill all with FA. They have to trust some youth and it needs to come through. 
I also think they will go past the first tier in spending this year. They have a decent amount coming off next year with guys they can fill with young talent. Stroman can be filled from within with young talent. They lose Smyly, Mancini, Barnhart, Gomes and maybe Hendricks salary. And none would be hard to replace for less. So if they did go over in 24’ they should be under again in 25’. 
Obviously this is just one option. The point is, IMO if they are aggressive this off season and are willing to go over the LT in 24’ there are a lot of ways they can get good enough to add 7-10 wins to their total in 23’. But even being aggressive they will need to depend on some youth as well as some guys they get in trades. 

[Petrey10]

12 hours ago, JHBulls said:

Yep. If a rabble like Arizona can make a World Series, you would think Soto and Alonso would make a big difference to the Cubs prospects  

We were right there where the dbacks were. We don’t horsefeathers the bed and we make it not the dbacks. 
 

it can happen. 
 

but getting some major production from 1B and DH would sure help. CF will be less bc Belli would be gone and who knows if Tauchman can continue to be average-ish. But maybe PCA with his def can keep pace in production. It sure could help the pitching! 
 

I think RF/LF are pretty set. Same with SS/2B. C prolly set but not world beaters.

 

3B might end up being that rotated spot to find the hot hand.

 

 

[squally1313]

9 hours ago, Stratos said:

Well as 1908 said they'll have to make a decision there.  If they don't want him at 3B then we need a 3B.  Maybe flip him for someone similar (young/cheap) who can actually play 3B with a team that needs a middle infielder.  They could also just give Morel and Mervis a shot and acquire someone like Jorge Polanco or someone else who can play 3B/1B to back them up and/or platoon at times.  Someone better than a replacement scrub that can't field like Mancini.  You trade Morel for Soto and the Cubs are right at the tax line and don't have a 3B, an 1B, or CF.

Between Soto, Alonso, Bellinger, Yamamoto, Ohtani etc I can see the Cubs landing one, but highly doubt they'll grab more than one and push the payroll to $260m or whatever it would take.  Next year they either need to spend over the CBT or find more surplus and with cheapo Ricketts we know which direction we'll need to go.  We can't keep filling every position with players making FA salaries with a cheap owner and expect to be a 95 win team.

If you trade Morel for Soto you have 5 players that combined for 21.8 fWAR last year, which on their own would make them the 11th most productive offensive team in baseball last year. Gomes and Amaya gave you 1.6 last year, let's not even round up for getting rid of Barnhart and you're at 23.4. Madrigal and Wisdom gave you another 1.6 in not a full season of PAs, there's 25 (better than the Cubs as a team). Can we get 4 wins out of CF, 1B, better backups given the existence of PCA, Canario, Mervis, name a random old first baseman you could trade for, etc etc etc? Because there you go, you're a top 5 offense in baseball. 

[squally1313]

Said another way, Juan Soto is so, so good at hitting baseballs. 

[We Got The Whole 9]

What the horsefeathers were the Padres thinking extending Yu until he's 43?! They actually should have traded him in his walk year.

[Tim]

Just a quick reminder of how great Juan Soto is through age 24:

https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders/major-league?pos=all&stats=bat&lg=all&type=8&season=2023&season1=1871&ind=0&team=0&rost=0&players=0&age=14%2C24&sortcol=17&sortdir=default&postseason=&qual=2000

12th all time in wRC+ through that age.

[Rex Buckingham]

https://www.bleachernation.com/cubs/2023/11/08/juan-soto-padres-ask/

Based on info from Kevin Acee (local SD guy, seems to be tight with the Org.) Cerami speculates SD will want pitching. Who is the best prospect you're willing to include for Soto?

I'm thinking a hard no on Horton and Wicks, gonna have to work to convince me on Brown and Assad, and it wouldn't upset me at all to give up Wesneski (he mentions Killian, but I don't think he has any value except as a throw-in). Would love to eat some of Smyly's money and buy a prospect from them if they would go for that.

[Rcal10]

5 minutes ago, Rex Buckingham said:

https://www.bleachernation.com/cubs/2023/11/08/juan-soto-padres-ask/

Based on info from Kevin Acee (local SD guy, seems to be tight with the Org.) Cerami speculates SD will want pitching. Who is the best prospect you're willing to include for Soto?

I'm thinking a hard no on Horton and Wicks, gonna have to work to convince me on Brown and Assad, and it wouldn't upset me at all to give up Wesneski (he mentions Killian, but I don't think he has any value except as a throw-in). Would love to eat some of Smyly's money and buy a prospect from them if they would go for that.

If Smyly is in the deal and the Cubs saved $5M of his contract by moving him they don’t need a prospect back. Brown, then either Killian or Wesnecki and Smyly as a third piece with the Cubs paying $4M to $5M of his salary for Soto. 

[Petrey10]

Morel, Hayden and smyly for cheap for Soto 

[Rcal10]

4 minutes ago, Petrey10 said:

Morel, Hayden and smyly for cheap for Soto 

I would rather keep Morel. Maybe trade him for someone else but not here. Maybe a young controlled starting pitcher? Or play him at 3rd. Either way wouldn’t include him here. Rather give Brown up. And Padres want pitching.

[Petrey10]

1 minute ago, Rcal10 said:

I would rather keep Morel. Maybe trade him for someone else but not here. Maybe a young controlled starting pitcher? Or play him at 3rd. Either way wouldn’t include him here. Rather give Brown up. And Padres want pitching.

If he gets us Soto with an extension it doesn’t matter.

 

id rather sign Jeimer and play him at 3b short term then Shaw and move Jeimer to 1b/dh

 

then sign one of the japense SP with some cheap bullpen additions

 

 

i believe that’s a playoff team

[Rcal10]

37 minutes ago, Petrey10 said:

If he gets us Soto with an extension it doesn’t matter.

 

id rather sign Jeimer and play him at 3b short term then Shaw and move Jeimer to 1b/dh

 

then sign one of the japense SP with some cheap bullpen additions

 

 

i believe that’s a playoff team

True. I wouldn’t not deal Morel in the trade. I would just rather use Brown. And no matter who they use I would hope they then extend Soto. 

[Jason Ross]

45 minutes ago, Rcal10 said:

I would rather keep Morel. Maybe trade him for someone else but not here. Maybe a young controlled starting pitcher? Or play him at 3rd. Either way wouldn’t include him here. Rather give Brown up. And Padres want pitching.

The Cubs are moving Morel to 1b per Levine. So I think we know how they feel about him at 3b moving forward.

Credit to @Transmogrified Tigerfor suggesting this like 1.5 weeks ago and me shitting all over it because I'm a big idiot.

Edited November 8, 2023 by 1908_Cubs

[Bertz]

I would move Horton for Soto.  He's probably the only guy we know is available I'd do it for but I'd do it.  That would have to do like 90% of the heavy lifting though.  San Diego is not getting Horton and Caissie for instance.  They're getting like Horton and Christian Franklin, or Horton and Matt Mervis.

Realistically though, I don't expect Horton is available or necessary.  This report makes me think the return is one of Caissie/Alcantara and one of Assad/Wicks/Brown, which is basically where my head was at until the Morel rumors popped up.

[Rcal10]

7 minutes ago, 1908_Cubs said:

The Cubs are moving Morel to 1b per Levine. So I think we know how they feel about him at 3b moving forward.

Credit to @Transmogrified Tigerfor suggesting this like 1.5 weeks ago and me shitting all over it because I'm a big idiot.

That is interesting. So what does that do for his chances of staying with the Cubs? And if they kept Morel I am not sure how Soto fits in, DH? Also does that take Alonso out of trade talks? Does that mean no interest in Hoskins. And finally I think that would close the books on Mervis.