9/26 - Cubs (Steele) vs Braves (Elder): 6:20pm, Marquee

[Brock Beauchamp]

After a day off, the Cubs are not only still in a postseason position but the Diamondbacks have drifted backward into a tie (though the Cubs obvi lose the tiebreaker there). It'd be nice to bump into that second WC spot and give yourself a little breathing room.

[UMFan83]

Was looking for signs of slowdown since the Braves clinched and their batting line in 10 games since clinch (.844 ops) is almost identical to their pre-clinch numbers (.845 ops).  Their lineups look mostly the same with maybe 1 guy resting per game  

Where the drop off comes is from pitching. 6.92 ERA compared to 4.08 for the season. That is why they are 4-6 since they’ve clinched.  The pitching shouldn’t be too good this series for Atlanta, so we’re gonna have to outslug them to win in this series. 

[chibears55]

Individual Season stats that would be cool to see accomplished in these final 6 games.

Bellinger hitting 4 HR to reach 30 and 5 RBI to reach 100, to go along with his 300+ Avg and 20+  SB....

Gomes getting 2 hits to reach 100 and 1 HR to reach 10...

Horner 4 Runs scored to reach 100...

Happ getting 1 HR for 20 and 2 RBI to reach 80...

Morel to get his Slug over 500 (.492) and OPS over 800 (.799)...

Steele to finish with ERA under 3 (3.00)...

Merryweather gets 5 more Ks for 100...

Wicks to get to 5 wins and ERA under 3(3.00)...

Team can get at least 3 wins for 85 and make the playoffs...

[CubinNY]

21 minutes ago, chibears55 said:

Individual Season stats that would be cool to see accomplished in these final 6 games.

Bellinger hitting 4 HR to reach 30 and 5 RBI to reach 100, to go along with his 300+ Avg and 20+  SB....

Gomes getting 2 hits to reach 100 and 1 HR to reach 10...

Horner 4 Runs scored to reach 100...

Happ getting 1 HR for 20 and 2 RBI to reach 80...

Morel to get his Slug over 500 (.492) and OPS over 800 (.799)...

Steele to finish with ERA under 3 (3.00)...

Merryweather gets 5 more Ks for 100...

Wicks to get to 5 wins and ERA under 3(3.00)...

Team can get at least 3 wins for 85 and make the playoffs...

In order of likeliness:

Gomes getting 2 hits to reach 100 and 1 HR to reach 10... (not the HR)

Horner 4 Runs scored to reach 100...

Merryweather gets 5 more Ks for 100...

Happ getting 1 HR for 20 and 2 RBI to reach 80...

Wicks to get to 5 wins, not a good bet on the ERA

Team can get at least 3 wins for 85 and make the playoffs.

Steele to finish with ERA under 3 (3.00)...

Morel to get his Slug over 500 (.492) and OPS over 800 (.799)...

Bellinger hitting 4 HR to reach 30 and 5 RBI to reach 100, to go along with his 300+ Avg and 20+  SB....

Edited September 26, 2023 by CubinNY

[UMFan83]

A look at the other games we'll be following tonight:

5:10pm CT - Reds (Greene 4.24 ERA) @ Guardians (Giolito 4.60 ERA) - Hunter Greene has been really solid of late and is coming off a 7 IP, 1 ER, 3 H effort against the Twins.  Giolito has been pretty mediocre since going to Cleveland, his last start he gave up 4 runs (3 earned) in 5.1 IP

6:10pm CT - Marlins (Garrett 3.53 ERA) @ Mets (Lucchesi 2.88 ERA) - Garrett is probably (?) the Marlins best starter this year.  He has given up 0 ER over his last 2 starts, 6 IP against these Mets and 6 IP against the Brewers.  Lucchesi has only made 8 starts this year and has pitched solid but a after quick glance it looks like he's probably getting a bit lucky.  This same pitching matchup occurred 1 week ago in Miami and the Marlins had a walk off 4-3 victory.

6:40pm CT - Diamondbacks (Davies 6.81 ERA) @ White Sox (Urena 7.27 ERA).  Davies sucks.  Honestly he even kind of sucked against the Cubs giving up 3 ER in 4 IP his last start.  He has had a couple of decent starts in the past month but his ERA is his ERA.  Urena is mostly terrible but has been solid in 2 of his 3 White Sox starts, his last being 6 IP, 1 ER, 4 H vs. the Nationals.

6:40pm CT - Cardinals (Thompson 4.57 ERA) @ Brewers (Houser 4.35 ERA).  F it, I'm including the Brewers until we're eliminated, though I'm not including the Giants or Phillies.

Edited September 26, 2023 by UMFan83

[champaignchris]

2 hours ago, chibears55 said:

Individual Season stats that would be cool to see accomplished in these final 6 games.

Bellinger hitting 4 HR to reach 30 and 5 RBI to reach 100, to go along with his 300+ Avg and 20+  SB....

Gomes getting 2 hits to reach 100 and 1 HR to reach 10...

Horner 4 Runs scored to reach 100...

Happ getting 1 HR for 20 and 2 RBI to reach 80...

Morel to get his Slug over 500 (.492) and OPS over 800 (.799)...

Steele to finish with ERA under 3 (3.00)...

Merryweather gets 5 more Ks for 100...

Wicks to get to 5 wins and ERA under 3(3.00)...

Team can get at least 3 wins for 85 and make the playoffs...

Nico is 9th in Cubs’ season stolen bases during the Live Ball Era. 
 

Pierre (06) - 58

Sandberg (85), Young (00) - 54

Lopes (85) - 47

Dernier (84) - 45

DeJesus (80) - 44

Kuyler (29), Grantham (1923) - 43

Hoerner (2023) - 42. 
 

Probably won’t make the top 4, but could get to 5 or 6. 

[Billy62]

     When you look at the Braves you have to accept the fact that this is an elite team. If not the best team in the majors, they are definitely in the conversation. People will say yeah or nay to that for a variety of reasons. We don't have to walk into Atlanta with our hat in hand and beg for them not to treat us too harshly. We have produced a better than average club here and in any game they play they have a slugger's chance. That said though, this team has to tighten it up against the Braves. They can ill afford the throw-outs on the basepaths, the walks, the fielding errors that have popped up on us as of late. We will need pitching that resembles more of July and August and less of September. If we can make the HR ball against us manageable and of the solo variety and have on our hitting shoes too, we can be in this series. We can't eliminate the long-ball from the Braves. Too much talent here to really shut them down. I see the key as when it happens to not have walked the two guys in front of the guy that gets a hold of one. And yes, some guys need to jump in and give Suzuki some support. A smoking hot Bellinger or even Morel could even up the odds a little more for us. Still, we have to be prepared. We can play our "A" game, eliminate our mistakes, and pitch effectively, and still come up short against these Braves. All we can do is fight the good fight and hope that will be enough to eek out a win or two. We have six games on the road against two really solid ball clubs. If we can go 3-3 against these teams and get some help from others, we may see postseason play yet. If not, that egg we laid against the Pirates is going to haunt us all winter.

[squally1313]

Elder through May: 1.92/3.39/3.66

Elder since 8/1: 4.74/5.06/4.96

Not that it's really mattered who's pitched against the Cubs lately, but this is probably the one guy we'll see in a Barves jersey tonight that doesn't scare anyone. They've tended to ignore offense when Steele is on the mound (anecdotal evidence, probably disprovable)...going to need to take advantage of the weak pitcher tonight. 

[Irrelevant Dude]

35 minutes ago, Billy62 said:

If not, that egg we laid against the Pirates is going to haunt us all winter.

Sure, it would have been great if the Cubs could have swept the Pirates or even taken 2 out of 3.  The reality though is they just won 4 out of 6 on their last home stand.  It isn't realistic to expect anything more than that. There are other games/series we can potentially look back on, but I can't get too worked up about losing 2 games to the Pirates and then sweeping the Rockies.

[UMFan83]

What should we expect from Steele tonight?  Coming off 2 of his worst outings of the year, but before that was coming off his best 4-5 start stretch of the season.  Were the last 2 starts an effect of being stretched to over 100 pitches 3 straight starts?  Or is his arm just tapped out of the year?

Hopefully he can put it together for at least 2 more starts.

[CubinNY]

1 minute ago, UMFan83 said:

What should we expect from Steele tonight?  Coming off 2 of his worst outings of the year, but before that was coming off his best 4-5 start stretch of the season.  Were the last 2 starts an effect of being stretched to over 100 pitches 3 straight starts?  Or is his arm just tapped out of the year?

Hopefully he can put it together for at least 2 more starts.

I'm hoping but not expecting Hottovy to be in Ross's ear to get a guy up in the pen before the third time through the order, no matter what. The first sign of trouble he gets yanked. No sixth inning that starts out with him walking a guy, followed by a bloop single, followed by a three-run home run. 

[Brian707]

8 minutes ago, UMFan83 said:

What should we expect from Steele tonight?  Coming off 2 of his worst outings of the year, but before that was coming off his best 4-5 start stretch of the season.  Were the last 2 starts an effect of being stretched to over 100 pitches 3 straight starts?  Or is his arm just tapped out of the year?

Hopefully he can put it together for at least 2 more starts.

Hopefully this is his last start of the regular season but would probably have to go 4-1 before Sunday.

I suspect Steele will go 7IP 1R 4 H 1BB 5Ks

[Rcal10]

58 minutes ago, CubinNY said:

I'm hoping but not expecting Hottovy to be in Ross's ear to get a guy up in the pen before the third time through the order, no matter what. The first sign of trouble he gets yanked. No sixth inning that starts out with him walking a guy, followed by a bloop single, followed by a three-run home run. 

If he is at 74 pitches through 5 while allowing less than 2 runs and the top of the order is coming up in the 6th you want him pulled? Exactly who do you want pitching at that time. I am sure if Ross did this he would be blasted here. Especially if this reliever you want in the game instead of Steele pitches poorly. Your scenario for the 6th is the first sign of trouble. I get moving him then but how do they take him out before that? How are they to know trouble is coming until it comes? To me that is managing scared. He got them here. He has to stay in to face the line up a 3rd time. If he is basically pitching well through 5 he has to stay in. Not like they have this lock down pen. 

[Rcal10]

1 hour ago, Brian707 said:

Hopefully this is his last start of the regular season but would probably have to go 4-1 before Sunday.

I suspect Steele will go 7IP 1R 4 H 1BB 5Ks

If they have a spot secured before Sunday but they are playing for 5th or 6th I wouldn’t use Steele. And if they go 3-2 prior to Sunday they might have a spot locked up. At least I hope they do. 

[thawv]

1 hour ago, UMFan83 said:

What should we expect from Steele tonight?  Coming off 2 of his worst outings of the year, but before that was coming off his best 4-5 start stretch of the season.  Were the last 2 starts an effect of being stretched to over 100 pitches 3 straight starts?  Or is his arm just tapped out of the year?

Hopefully he can put it together for at least 2 more starts.

I know he had TJS in 2017, so the following year was understandable, but the Cubs never stretched him out before surgery, or after surgery.  How is a pitcher expected to go deep in to games, and deep in to the season, if he's not allowed to pitch deep in to games?

Starting from 2014, here's his innings pitched.  18.2 40.2, 77.1, 98.2, 46.2, 38.2, 84.1, 119, 168

He was being groomed to NOT be able to pitch deep in to the season.  I'm not a fan of that type of development. 

 

 

[UMFan83]

Just to deal with my nervous energy, I'm going to predict the week goes like this:

CHC: WLLWWL

MIA: LLWWWL

ARI: WWWLLL

CIN: not enough

 

5. ARI 85-77

6. CHC 85-77

Out. MIA 84-78

 

If that happened it would be a dramatic week with the Cubs increasing their lead to 2, then by the end of the Braves series back to just 1.  They go into the final day needing a win or Marlins loss to clinch and a win + DBacks loss to finish WC2.  In a fitting end to the WC race, everyone loses.

[UMFan83]

In other news, the White Sox give the Cubs the middle finger and place Luis Robert Jr on the IL prior to their series against the DBacks.

[CubinNY]

41 minutes ago, Rcal10 said:

If he is at 74 pitches through 5 while allowing less than 2 runs and the top of the order is coming up in the 6th you want him pulled? Exactly who do you want pitching at that time. I am sure if Ross did this he would be blasted here. Especially if this reliever you want in the game instead of Steele pitches poorly. Your scenario for the 6th is the first sign of trouble. I get moving him then but how do they take him out before that? How are they to know trouble is coming until it comes? To me that is managing scared. He got them here. He has to stay in to face the line up a 3rd time. If he is basically pitching well through 5 he has to stay in. Not like they have this lock down pen. 

Read again

[UMFan83]

Here's the lineup tonight:

Tauchman CF

Hoerner 2B

Happ LF

Bellinger 1B

Suzuki RF

Swanson SS

Morel DH

Gomes C

Mastrobuoni 3B

I was one of the loudest screaming for Swanson to hit behind Seiya so great, but its funny that Ross finally started doing that AFTER Swanson started hitting again.

[UMFan83]

And injury updates

The Candelario bit is really not telling us anything insightful, but pretty clear that Adbert wouldn't be back until maybe Saturday or Sunday?  

[gflore34]

28 minutes ago, UMFan83 said:

In other news, the White Sox give the Cubs the middle finger and place Luis Robert Jr on the IL prior to their series against the DBacks.

On the plus side I'd expect the White Sox will get to Daives and the poor Arizona bullpen for several runs.  The Diamondback poor pitching pixie dust only seems to work on the Cubs, the question is - will the White Sox be able to keep them off scoreboard enough to win?

[UMFan83]

11 minutes ago, gflore34 said:

On the plus side I'd expect the White Sox will get to Daives and the poor Arizona bullpen for several runs.  The Diamondback poor pitching pixie dust only seems to work on the Cubs, the question is - will the White Sox be able to keep them off scoreboard enough to win?

You might have missed my post above where the White Sox starter has an ERA over 7 for the year (though has pitched better in his 3 White Sox starts)

[gflore34]

26 minutes ago, UMFan83 said:

You might have missed my post above where the White Sox starter has an ERA over 7 for the year (though has pitched better in his 3 White Sox starts)

I did see that, as you stated he's been more effective of late, so, White Sox 8 - 7 sound good?

[Soul]

Come on AZ lay a big turd against the Sox.  I know you can do it.

[soccer10k]

Dodgers lose so the Braves are 4 up on them with the tiebreaker with 6 to play.